Three for Cooperstown

Finally.

The writers made a small dent in the growing backlog of obviously qualified Hall of Fame candidates, electing Jeff Bagwell, Tim Raines and Ivan Rodriguez.

It was quickly noted that the writers have now chosen 12 players in four years, matching the Hall's first four years for the most selections. But it's also the first time in those four years that the majority of selectees were not first-time ballotteers.

Still, one probably should not be churlish about this year's outcome. Bagwell and Raines are in, as they should be, and the plaques will not note the delays.

And Rodriguez becomes only the second catcher ever elected on the first ballot. His election was closer than it should have been, but (again) the plaque won't mention that.

There is another wave of qualfied -- even over-qualified -- candidates slated to hit the ballot next winter, with Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Andruw Jones and -- his continuing comeback ambitions not withstanding -- Johan Santana, among others. Even with Raines and Bagwell off the backlist, it's still going to be a crowded ballot.

Anticipating the Hall of Fame announcment

The ballots have been cast, and the announcement is due on Wednesday.

Predicting the outcome of the Hall of Fame vote is a bit more difficult this year because of the culling of the BBWAA electorate. About 145 90 of last year's voters were stripped of their ballots by the Hall of Fame; they got the ax on the basis of no longer covering baseball. Many, if not most, of them are believed to have been casting "short" ballots, voting for one or two candidates at the most.

Dropping them effectively boosts the percentages going to the also-run candidates, and off the publicly announced ballots that appears to be a significant boost for Tim Raines in particular. Raines is nearing the end of his BBWAA eligibility (one year to go after this). My guess is that he won't make it this year but will come close enough that next year he can go over the top.

I hope he does. Raines should have been in long ago. This piece by Peter Keating of ESPN describes Raines' exclusion as a "perfect storm" of biases, from playing his glory years in Montreal to his cocaine use to the shadow of contemporary Rickey Henderson to a long time preference by Hall voters for sluggers over leadoff men. All are probably factors. I'm perfectly confident in declaring Raines to be a better player than, for example, Jim Rice, another left fielder who is in.

Raines isn't the only candidate on the ballot who has been unwisely excluded. Alan Trammell exhausts his BBWAA eligibility this year, and he has more ground to cover to get to 75 percent than Raines.

My prediction: Ken Griffey, Mike Piazza and Jeff Bagwell get in this time, with Raines just missing. Piazza might have gotten anyway without the revamped electorate; if Bagwell and or Raines do too, it will be because dozens of previous naysayers were silenced this time.