Contemplating Daniel Murphy

Daniel Murphy, second baseman for the New York Mets, certainly picked a great time to do his Babe Ruth impersonation. Murphy has hit six homers in 12 days, including long balls off Zach Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. Quite the performance.

In 2012, he had more than 600 plate appearances and hit six homers all year. And now this -- propelling the Mets to the brink of the World Series and propelling himself into free agency on a high note.

Every day seems to bring higher speculation about how much Murphy will get this winter. And the skeptic in me whispers: Don't be so sure. George Steinbrenner is dead, and front offices are smarter than they were a decade ago.

Murphy is a good hitter for a second baseman, and a below average fielder. The combination makes him, over time, a marginal regular. And he's 30 now, set for his decline phase.

It's irrational to believe October 2015 overrides his first seven years as a measure of his ability. Maybe there is still a greater fool out there who will pay him on the basis of this postseason, but I doubt it.

Brandon goes Boom

Brandon Crawford unloads on this Edinson
Volquez pitch. He hit 10 homers in the regular
season, a career high.

Wednesday's wild card game wasn't up to the standard of Tuesday's, but that's a pretty high bar to set.

Brandon Crawford, former Mankato Moondog (2005) and current San Francisco Giant, put this one on ice with a grand slam in the fourth inning.

Of course, the Giants' Bay Area neighbors for Oakland were unable to sustain a four-run lead of their own in the AL wild card game. The difference: Jon Lester let the Kansas City Royals back into the game, and Madison Bumgarner did not.

So the National League team I was most interested in rooting for (Pittsburgh) is eliminated. Let's go down the list of division series match-ups:

AL: Anaheim versus Kansas City; Baltimore vs. Detroit.

The Angels had much the better record and do more things well than the Royals do, plus manager Mike Scoscia is far less likely to make a mess than is Ned Yost. But Anaheim's starting pitching has been thinned by injuries; Matt Shoemaker, who will start Game 2, hasn't pitched in more than two weeks. (I saw him against the Twins in early September and was not impressed.)

I'll almost always root for the Midwest team over one from Southern California, and this will be no exception. And while Anaheim is the better team, I'll go with K.C. to take this series. Hope so; the longer Yost is the Royals manager, the better for the Twins.

The other series is a genuine test of two postseason power theories. Theory one is that power arms win in October, and the Tigers have a genuine advantage in power arms. Theory two is that teams based on power hitters struggle in October; the weather is colder and the pitchers don't make as many mistakes. Baltimore's offense is based on the home run.

Both theories point to Detroit, so that's my pick. As far as rooting goes, I'm torn. I like the Orioles; they were my favorite non-Twins team in my formative years of fandom. I may well find as the series progress that I want the O's. I start without a preference.

NL: Washington-San Francisco; St. Louis-Los Angeles

I see no reason to pick against the Nationals. Deep rotation, solid lineup. Former Twin Denard Span had his best season since 2009 (led the National League in hits) and gives me a rooting interest. The Giants always seem to have enough pitching to be tough in October, but I gotta go with the Nats.

The Cardinals and Dodgers? I'd like them both to lose. Only one will, however. And I'll pick the Cardinals to win his one. As for rooting, I dislike both operations, so I'll refrain from making any emotional investment.

The myth of Game Seven

The National League Championship Series comes down to a Game Seven tonight. St. Louis will start Kyle Lohse, former Twin; San Francisco will start Matt Cain, author this year of a perfect game.

I am probably incapable of accurately assessing this matchup. Both men had fine seasons this year. Lohse is doubtless a better pitcher today than he was six to 10 years ago, but his failure to develop while with Minnesota colors my perception of him. He will, in my estimation, always be the punk who damaged Ron Gardenhire's office.

Lohse: Bad. Cain: Good. Now that I've said that, Lohse will probably throw 20 ground balls tonight and shut the Giants out. He's better than I want to admit.

Meanwhile, I offer this piece of goodness combining two of my favorite things: Baseball and Mythbusters. Cain earlier this summer filmed a segment with the Discovery show that has yet to air (exactly what myths they're exploring/exploding I'm not sure), and this weekend Tory Belleci and Kari Byron each tweeted links to this video.

Playing with match(up)s

It's kind of amusing to see Joe Girardi getting pilloried for switching from one right-handed reliever (David Robertson) to another (Alfredo Aceves) in mid inning.

Girardi outmanaged — by himself says the Daily News.

This is the way managers handle their bullpens nowadays — playing matchups.

Or playing with matches. Eventually they find somebody who doesn't have it that day, and then they get burned.

Girardi isn't going into detail on why he wanted Aceves rather than Robertson in the 11th inning after Robertson got the first two outs: "It's just different kind of stuff against those hitters. We have all the matchups and all the scouting reports, and we felt [Aceves] was a better matchup."

The scounting reports I've seen on Robertson say he has a quality fastball and curve; Aceves has average stuff, including a change. I suspect, therefore, that the Yankees scouting report says to use the change to get Howie Kendrick (above) out.

Aceves was the eighth pitcher Girardi used in Game 3. It took Girardi a while, but he found one without good stuff.

Girardi had been 5-0 running relievers in and out. Now he's 5-1. And he's still got CC Sabathia pitching Tuesday. The Fat Man has a way of making bullpens irrelevant.

Game 4 might be the key game of the ALCS. Sabathia's on short rest. If the Angels can knock him off, they might win this series. I remain doubtful.
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Over in the other LCS, the Phillies are now one win away from a return to the World Series. And on paper, the Phillies have the advantage in every pitching matchup.

Of course, on paper, the Dodgers have the advantage when the games go to the bullpens, but on Monday, the Phillies pen was solid and the Dodgers closer failed.

I suspect the Phillies would love to see the Angels win the ALCS. That way they can line up Pedro Martinez for more warm-weather starts. I'm not sure how well his arm will respond to chilly weather.

And that I've turned my thoughts to how to handle Pedro in the World Series tell you what I think of the Dodgers' chances.

Phillies walk the Lidge

Mike Cuellar pitched seven years in regular rotation for Earl Weaver, going 139-75 from 1969-1975. But things didn't go so well in 1976 — he finished the season 4-13 with a 4.96 ERA, this in an era when an ERA in the fours was pretty awful — and Weaver yanked him from the rotation about halfway through the season.

Cuellar complained that Weaver hadn't given him a chance to get straightened out. Weaver's retort: "I gave Mike more chances than my first wife."

How many chances to give a pitcher who's done the job before is a question that has bedeviled many a manager. Charlie Manuel's handling of Brad Lidge this season is an extreme case of patience — of more chances than Weaver's first wife.

Yes, Lidge had 31 saves. He also had an ERA of 7.21. This is not a misprint. He had 11 blown saves and an 0-8 record. There were worse pitchers than him, but not many. And none who are still getting the ball.

Manuel has stuck with Lidge, believing in the talent — and, perhaps, counting on the fact that 58 innings, even over the course of a season, is a small sample size. He spent much of September focused on rebuilding Lidge's psyche and pitches.

Perhaps it has worked. Lidge has three saves so far this postseason. They haven't been pretty ones — on Thursday against the Dodgers, for example, he allowed two baserunners.

Whether he can keep this up, we'll see. But Manuel made his decision, right or wrong, weeks ago.