Four for the Hall

The Base Ball Writers Association of America -- the BBWAA, whose name is probably the final vestige of the obsolete style of splitting baseball into two words -- elected four stars of the 1990s and 2000s to the Hall of Fame. Four thoughts for four inductees:

* Much is being made of Mariano Rivera's unanimous election, the first in Hall history. The unaminity is unimportant, but I'm glad it finally happened because the BBWAA electorate, or at least part of it, couldn't seem to shut up about how it had never happened.

* The purging of the voting roster a few years back clearly got the desired result. This year's election continues the recent trend of multiple inductees -- and unlike most, it actually cleared out some of the backlog of deserving candidates. Rivera and Roy Halladay were first-time candidates, but Mike Mussina and Edgar Martinez have been on the ballot for a few years.

* Halladay's first-ballot election is intriguing because his career was relatively brief -- "only" 16 years and 203 career wins, which are pretty low for Cooperstown. I don't think he was even close to being the best pitcher, or even the best starting pitcher, on the ballot -- I'd take Mussina over Doc, and probably Curt Schilling as well -- but he had a good run in which the consensus had him as one of the best starters in baseball. High quality and enough duration to get in. Johan Santana -- off the ballot -- had the former but not the latter.

* The selection last month by the "Today's Game" committee of two lesser specialists in Lee Smith and Harold Baines probably cleared the way for Martinez's election and Rivera's unaminity. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, a beat writer I follow, had resisted voting for Martinez for years because he was limited to DH; he switched this year in part because of Baines and in part because he recognized that he was very likely to vote for David Ortiz in a few years. Here again, the purging of the "inactive" voters -- member of the BBWAA no longer involved in covering the game -- resulted in a younger electorate more accepting of specialists.

Curt Schilling vs. John Smoltz vs. Mike Mussina

John Smoltz was voted into the Hall of Fame on his first try. Curt Schilling, in his third year on the ballot, was not. Lagging even further behind was second-year candidate Mike Mussina.

Schilling responded by speculating that he is hurt in the balloting by being a Republican.

This notion brings to mind the adage about not attributing to malice that which can be adequately explained by incompetency. Schilling should be particularly grateful for that adage, given the spectacular collapse of his electronic gaming enterprise, 38 Studios, and the $75 million hit that failure put on the state of Rhode Island's economic development fund. Adhering to that adage allows me to assume that Schilling was an incompetent businessman rather than that he was running a fraud.

And if something off field accounts for Schilling not garnering enough support for election, I think it more likely that the 38 Studios fiasco is responsible, not Schilling's politics. After all, Smoltz is a Republican too.

That said, I don't know why Smoltz drew instant enshrinement while Schilling and Mussina wait. It's one of those goofy BBWAA things, I guess.

Player A: 216-146 (.597), 3.46, 3,116 strikeouts. Postseason record 11-2, 2.23
Player B: 210-147 (.588), 3.26,  154 saves. Postseason record 15-4, 2.67
Player C: 270-153 (.638), 3.68. Postseason record 7-8, 3.42

Player A is Schilling. Player B is Smoltz. Player C is Mussina.

As far as I'm concerned, all three are deserving. I just don't see that Smoltz set himself apart from the other two.

And, for what it's worth, Player D, Jack Morris, now off the ballot:

254-186 (.577), 3.90, Postseason record: 7-4, 3.80. Mussina, Schilling and Smoltz are all clearly better.

Jack Morris and win points, Part I

With a crowded ballot on his
final chance with the writers,
Jack Morris isn't likely
to be elected to the Hall of Fame
this year either.

There are seven eight starting pitchers on this year's Hall of Fame ballot, plus a handful of relievers. I said here, soon after the ballot was announced, that Jack Morris was at best the sixth best starter on the ballot,  and that was giving him the benefit of the doubt over Kenny Rogers.

As I see it, Morris has only once in his 15 years on the ballot been the best starter listed. In this, his final chance on the writers ballot, he ranks (in my eyes) behind Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling.

The argument for Morris essentially boils down to two points: Wins and durability. But how does Morris' 254-186 won-loss record really compare to these rivals?

In his 1994 book on the Hall of Fame (which, as I said in a previous post, I am rereading in the wake of my Cooperstown visit last month), Bill James offers a formula he called "win points": Career wins times winning percentage, plus games over .500.

The merit of win points in evaluating won-loss record in the context of a Hall of Fame debate, he said, is that it pushes the likes of Sandy Koufax and Dizzy Dean — with short, brilliant careers — forward while downgrading longevity guys with lots of decisions, such as Tommy John and Gus Weyring.

Win points, for a variety of reasons, never caught on as a factor in HoF debates. But I thought it worth working the math in the context of Morris, whose candidacy I have long been skeptical of.

Take Maddux as an example. He was 355-227. Multiply 355 by his .610 winning percentage, and add 128 for his games over .500, and you get 345 win points.

Morris actually scores better on this scale than I expected: 215, the same as Phil Niekro, who is in the Hall. Chief Bender, the first Minnesota native to be inducted into the Hall, scores 214. There are non-Hall of Famers in the same area (Tommy John, for example, is at 217), but Morris isn't surrounded by non-Hall guys.

But in this specific company, Morris doesn't do so well. Going top to bottom:

• Clemens: 403
• Maddux: 345
• Mussina: 289
• Glavine: 285
• Morris: 215
• Schilling: 199
• Rogers: 190
• Hideo Nomo: 79

I still rate Schilling ahead of Morris; while the won-loss record is important, there are other factors, such as ERA and strikeouts, and Schilling has much the advantage in those areas. Of the top seven, Morris has the lowest winning percentage (.577).

The guy who really gets a boost in my estimation here is Mussina. I knew he had 270 wins. But I didn't realize that he had a .638 winning percentage. That's mighty impressive. There is really nothing Morris offers that Mussina doesn't trump, other than Game Seven. There's really no excuse for anybody with a vote opting for Morris over Mussina.