Bryce Harper, Jonathan Paplebon and the Nationals disaster

Bryce Harper (right) is pulled away from Jonathan Papelbon
in the eighth inning Saturday in Washington.

Bryce Harper is 22 and having a monster season for the Washington Nationals. As disappointing as the Nats have been, Harper is the overwhelming favorite for the National League MVP award.

Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the game's better closers for almost a decade. He's prolific enough a saves artist that he harbors ambitions of catching Mariano Rivera's career mark.

Washington has here two giant egos who clearly don't like each other very much. Sunday's dugout scuffle, in which Papelbon grabbed Harper by the throat purportedly because Harper didn't sprint to first base on a popup, was a vivid illustration.

This isn't about how hard Harper ran or about a veteran policing professionalism. This has its roots in (a) the massive disappointment that has been the Nationals in the second half and (b) the Manny Machado incident of a week or so ago, when Papelbon decided to throw at the Orioles star and Harper in the postgame declared. "It's tired. I'm probably going to get drilled tomorrow."

As it turned out, Buck Showalter, the Orioles manager, quashed any notion of immediate revenge-taking (which doesn't mean it won't happen next year). The point is: Harper called out Papelbon for his stupidity, and as Thomas Boswell of the Washington Post says in this piece on the meaning of Sunday;s tussle, "the fuse had been lit to a tinderbox player."

Boswell last year inaccurately derided Harper as the seventh-best player on the Nats. He is no Harper apologist, but the overwhelming consensus appears to be on Harper's side in this dispute.

During the runup to the trade deadline, I floated here the notion of the Twins acquiring Papelbon. That notion was based on a wildly inaccurate reading of Papelbon's motivations and contract, and I am quite pleased two months later that Papelbon isn't in Minnesota.

The Nats probably wish now he wasn't in Washington either, but they're stuck with him for another year, having guaranteed his overpriced option for 2016.

Washington figures to have a lot of roster turnover this winter, including manager Matt Williams. This is one team where the single most important quality of the next manager is going to be his ability to handle giant egos. Baseball history is replete with managers who ran their careers aground on such rocks.

I never thought I'd say this again, but this might be a team that would benefit from having Dusty Baker as its skipper.

"Competitive balance" and trades

For the second year in a row, the Twins on Wednesday were awarded an extra draft pick between the second and third rounds.

The "Competitive Balance B" pick is noteworthy not only because it means another draft pick in the top 100 next June. It adds something in the high six figures to the Twins 2016 draft bonus pool, meaning more flexibility. And, unlike other draft picks, it's tradeable, at least during the regular season(s). (That is why MLB holds the lottery before the trading deadline.)

Having last year's Competitive Balance B pick in hand last winter made it easier for Terry Ryan and Co. to surrender their official second round pick by signing Ervin Santana. Of course, they then failed to sign the pitcher they selected with that pick (Kyle Cody). So they now have two picks in the 2016 "Competitive Balance B" section of the draft, the one they won Wednesday and the Cody compensation pick. (Both will add to the draft pool; I don't know that the Cody comp pick is tradeable, but I assume it is.)

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A followup on Wednesday's post and Jonathan Papelbon: The Phillies closer apparently has partial trade protection. There are 17 clubs on his no-trade list. I don't know if the Twins are among them. It's presumed that he'll insist that his 2016 option -- $13 million -- be vested before approving a trade to a team on his list.

The source I relied on in writing that post said he needs 55 games finished in 2015 to vest that option. Another source this morning says the number is 48. He's at 32 now. (Here is a Ken Rosenthal piece from January on how Papelbon's contract snarls trade possibilities. The specifics about the Brewers are outdated, but the issues remain the same.)

So the complicating factors in such a deal are, from this distance, less certain than I thought a day ago.

Contemplating the bullpen situation

Blaine Boyer entered
Tuesday leading
the American League
in games pitched.

We arrive in this series, finally, to the area of the Twins roster most in need of an upgrade -- and probably the one easiest to upgrade without long-term damage to the organization: The bullpen.

Specifically, the bullpen in front of Glen Perkins. There's nothing wrong with Perkins. There's a lot wrong with the six others.

The Twins are slightly better than AL average in terms of relief pitching ERA. No team in the league has blown fewer leads. But the average relief pitcher in the American league strikes out 8.3 men per nine innings. Perkins is a bit over that average. Other than Ryan O'Rourke, who has faced all of 11 hitters since his callup (entering Tuesday's game) and starter-in-waiting Trevor May, nobody in the current bullpen is within 1 K/9 of the league average.

Good bullpens have power arms. The Twins don't have that. And that is the single biggest difference between the Twins and the Kansas City Royals. The Royals can stack swing-and-miss pitchers from the sixth inning on; the Twins have none until the ninth.

I have a specific idea to address that. His name is Jonathan Papelbon.

J.R. Graham's ERA
jumped from 2.85 to
3.58 on Sunday.

The All-Star closer is vocally unhappy in Philadelphia, and has been demanding a trade to a contender for weeks. His too-large contract expires at the end of the season unless he finishes 23 more games (more on that later), so given the frequent professions of payroll leeway, I think the Twins can absorb his deal for the remainder of the year. The Phillies are officially, if belatedly, in rebuild mode.

In my mind, the only question here is if Papelbon is willing to step down from his accustomed ninth-inning role to set up Perkins. I don't know what, if any, no-trade protection he has. Taking the eighth-inning role could be expensive for him; in that role, there's no way he's finishing enough games to vest his $13 million option of 2016 (he needs 55 this year and entered Tuesday with 32). And while he remains a quality relief pitcher, few if any teams today would give any reliever $13 million a year. He says he's unhappy in Philly because they're not in contention. But losing out on that 2016 option (which he might not attain even if he remains a closer) might also make him unhappy.

That aside, Papelbon figures to be a rent-a-player. A good rent-a-player in exactly the role the Twins need to upgrade.

I've no idea what the Phillies are demanding for Papelbon. but I would be in favor of giving them their choice of Oswaldo Arcia or Adam Brett Walker, two young outfielders with big power and other holes in their games. In return, the Twins take all the Papelbon contract risk.

The Phillies may be waiting for more than that. But it might be a doable deal in the next few days.

Behind the closer meltdowns

Four high-profile closers — 150 saves in 2009 amongst them — blew ninth-inning leads in the first round of the playoffs.

And in retrospect, those blown leads couldn't have been much of a surprise to their team's fan bases, even after seasons of success.

Taking them in order:

Ryan Franklin, St. Louis, Game 2 against Los Angeles. Franklin's ERA in September/October was 6.75.

Joe Nathan, Minnesota, Game 2 against New York. Nathan's September/October ERA was 3.38. Of more alarm, he had given up four homers in that period — more than in the rest of the season combined — and pitched 16 innings, almost 50 percent more than the other closers involved in these blown saves. He was, of necessity, worked hard down the stretch, and he's about to turn 35.

Jonathan Papelbon, Boston, Game 3 against Anaheim. No real issues here; he had last blown a save opportunity in July, his September/October ERA was 1.58, he hadn't walked a batter since August 24. Still, there were rumblings in the Nation that he wasn't quite as dominant in 2009 as they're used to seeing.

Huston Street (photo above), Colorado, Game 4 against Philadelphia. For that matter, he took the loss in Game 3, which wasn't a save opp. Street's September/October ERA (3.38) wasn't much worse than his season ERA (3.09), but he had a three-week gap in September in which he didn't pitch, and his August ERA was 5.79.

As the boilerplate financial services disclaimer says, past results do not guarantee future performance.