Mike Pelfrey, 2013 fWAR: 2.1 wins above brWAR: -0.3 wins below What end of the WAR spectrum do you think Pelf falls closer too?
— Parker Hageman (@OverTheBaggy) September 25, 2013
To which Jack Goin of the Twins front office, who supplies Terry Ryan with whatever statistical input the general manager requires, replied: "Looks like 0.9" — which is the average between the two figures.
|Mike Pelfrey made 29 starts|
for the 2103 Twins,
going 5-13 with a 5.19 ERA
in his first season after
Tommy John surgery.
Using the rule of thumb that teams will pay $5 million per win in free agency, Fangraphs says Pelfrey was worth $10 million last year. Baseball Reference says he was release bait.
And Goin's Twitter response suggests that Pelfrey's $4 million-plus pay was basically what he earned.
All this is not necessarily academic. Pelfrey, who'll be a free agent after the World Series, has told people covering the Twins he wants to return to Minnesota. But his agent is Scott Boras, who seldom cuts team-friendly deals. If some other team buys into the Fangraphs interpretation of Pelfrey's season, Pelfrey's return is less likely.
Baseball Reference's interpretation, and the traditional stats, would suggest that's not a bad thing for the Twins.