Thursday, July 26, 2012

Blackburn being Blackburn

I found myself wondering in the moments leading up to the first pitch of Wednesday's game which level of performance from Nick Blackburn would be best in the long run.

Would a superficially impressive low-run outing, such as he had in his previous start, help con another organization into buying into the illusion that he can pitch? Or would it merely con the Twins into hanging on to him?

Or would another shelling help more by convincing management that the $7 million or so he's still owed (this year and next) is a sunk cost?

What we got, of course, was the shelling. Thirteen outs and 10 hits, eight runs, a pair of homers and one measly strikeout. That is the Nick Blackburn I've come to expect.

A couple of commenters on an earlier post dismiss the necessity for strikeouts. They could not be more wrong. Blackburn's strikeout rate for the season is now under 4 K/9; the league average is 7.3. You cannot name a successful pitcher with a K rate that far below league average -- not today, not at any point in baseball history. They don't exist.

Blackburn's strikeout rate was always subpar, and now it's worse. What's more, it's gotten worse as the rest of the league is striking out more hitters. He's losing ground. 


Losing ground. And losing games. It's not going to change. We have a sufficient track record to establish that.

9 comments:

  1. Brad Penny had a k/9 of 3.7 last year and pitched 181 innings.

    Blackburn's problem was he wasn't getting people out. The percentage of outs a pitcher gets from strikeouts is really irrelevant.

    Blackburn doesn't even have the lowest k/9 on the Twins this year. Alex Burnett's K/9 is 3.8, while Blackburn's is 4.1. I think Burnett has been "successful" this year.

    There you have have two pitchers who had success with k/9's under 4 and Blackburns isn't that low.

    But don't let facts get in the way of your beliefs.

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  2. My numbers for Blackburn didn't include yesterday's game. His k/9 is now 4.0. It doesn't change the conclusion. His problem is getting people out. You really won't find a successful pitcher with a WHIP of 1.75, which is where Blackburn stands right now.

    I doubt anyone thinks Blackburn has been successful so far this year, which is what those numbers reflect. The question is whether he will be successful going forward. That won't be determined by his "strikeout rate".

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  3. Getting comments today from the flat earth society, I see.

    Anon 1: Brad Penny? BRAD PENNY? Seriously?

    Penny had an ERA of 5.30 last season, which badly understates his ineffectiveness, as he was also charged with another 10 unearned runs. He was so "effective" that he had to go to Japan to find a job this spring. He was so "effective" there he got released after one start.

    If you regard that as effective, that's your problem. Don't let facts get in the way of your beliefs.

    Burnett's low ERA this year looked like a mirage, and his work this month (eight runs in 8.1 innings) suggests his inability to miss bats is catching up to him.

    Anon 2: You are confusing symptom (high WHIP) with disease (low K rate). This is a basic fact: The single most important indicator of a pitcher's future is his strikeout rate. Low strikeout guys get hurt more often, have lower margins for error and have shorter careers.

    The question of whether Blackburn "will be successful going forward" WILL be determined by his strikeout rate -- indeed, it will be determined by almost nothing else. And after all these years, I think we know the answer to that.

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  4. "Burnett's low ERA this year looked like a mirage, and ."

    Burnett is a "mirage" and therefore "doesn't exist". My word faith is powerful.

    "his work this month (eight runs in 8.1 innings) suggests his inability to miss bats is catching up to him"

    Burnett k/9 is higher this month than June when he pitched 12 innings, gave up three hits and no runs. Despite his recent struggles in July, Burnett's overall numbers are still better across the board than Perkins, who has the best k/9 on the Twins.

    "If you regard that as effective, that's your problem."

    Penny pitched 180+ innings for a team that ended up in the World Series. His team won over half the games he started. That sounds like success to me. And I think the Twins would take that from their 4th starter this year. Penny was certainly more successful than Francisco Liriano has been.

    "The single most important indicator of a pitcher's future is his strikeout rate. "

    No, it isn't. The single most important indicator of a pitcher's future is his ability to get batters out. There are numerous pitchers with high strikeout rates who fail in the big leagues. They don't last long because a high strikeout rate is useless if you can't get anyone out on balls in play. Its just one tool in the arsenal and not the most important one. Even the best strikeout pitchers only get a third of their outs that way.

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  5. Jon HeymanVerified ‏@JonHeymanCBS

    annoyed #twins person on suggestion they should trade willingham: "What are we, someone's farm club?"

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  6. A few more mirages that don't exist this year Aaron Cook, Derek Lowe and Henderson Alvarez.

    Then there is John Lannan in 2009 206 IP with a 3.88 ERA and 3.9 K/9. That k/9 predicted his future collapse. He only pitched 184 innings with a 3.70 ERA last year. Definitely mirage material.

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  7. I think Anonymous has been out in the sun too much. I'm still cracking up over this pearl of stupidity:
    "Penny was certainly more successful than Francisco Liriano has been."

    If the Twins placed winning in the future over payroll concerns, they would cut Blackburn and eat the rest of his contract. It's time to give Devries and Hendricks and others of their ilk the ball every fifth day for the rest of the season.

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  8. Another thought about Blackburn from ESPN's David Schoenfield:

    "Not to pick on a guy when he's down, but Blackburn has made 15 starts and has just two quality starts. Only six pitchers since 1901 who made at least 15 starts have ever had a higher ERA. Four of those came during the steroid era; one came in 1934; and the other was Steve Blass, who had a "disease" named after him after he lost the ability to throw strikes. Stop it, Minnesota, stop it."

    Let's cut him loose.

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  9. "Only six pitchers since 1901 who made at least 15 starts have ever had a higher ERA. "

    The season isn't over. The Twins would be foolish to make evaluations based on this kind of sports writer goal posting.

    " I'm still cracking up over this pearl of stupidity: Penny was certainly more successful than Francisco Liriano has been."

    Penny got 181 innings last year with a 5.30 ERA while making 31 starts and his team won the majority of those games.

    Last year Liriano got 132 innings in 24 starts with a 5.09 ERA. His team lost the majority of those starts. So far this year Liriano has has got 93 innings pitched with 5.34 ERA as a starter. The Twins have lost 11 of his 17 starts.

    So, over the last two years Liriano has started 41 games, got only 225 IP and has an ERA somewhere around 5.25. And the Twins have lost 24 of those starts.

    Liriano hasn't been getting as many people out and his team has not been winning as often when he starts. So unless you define "success" as striking people out, Liriano has not been as successful as Penny was last year. No matter what the "homer" sports writers and bloggers might believe.

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