Pic of the Week

Matt Holiday gets plunked.

This is actually from May 23, more than a week ago, but it's too good a moment to turn down.

Notes, quotes and comment

Tim Stauffer has
a job but not a role
in an eight-man bullpen.

Good: Casey Fien was activated from the disabled list Friday. A healthy Fien is an asset to the Twins relief corps.

Bad: Michael Tonkin, dubbed "the Strand Man" by the Pioneer Press's Mike Berardino, was sent back to Rochester. Tonkin has a rather odd set of stats: just seven innings in 11 appearances, and a 5.14 ERA while stranding 10 of 13 runners. Basically, Paul Molitor was using Tonkin for one or two outs with men on base. Tonkin entered five games in save situations and departed having held the lead all five times. In short, he had a useful role.

Worse: Tim Stauffer remains on the roster, to what purpose none can tell. He came off the disabled list a week ago after several ineffective rehab appearances and went unused until getting a one-out mopup appearance Friday. Which is understandable, since the Twins were winning games, and Stauffer has done nothing -- in spring training, in the regular season, on rehab -- to make anybody believe that he can help.

Keeping Stauffer over Tonkin suggests Terry Ryan and Co. are more concerned with getting something for the $2.2 million the veteran will be paid this year than with giving Molitor a useful relief pitcher. It's a regrettable decision.

---

Baseball America issued Mock Draft 4.0 on Friday. Unlike the previous three attempts, this one does not project the Twins taking Dez Cameron with the No. 6 overall pick. That's because they now project the Houston Astros to take the son of former Gold Glove center fielder Mike Cameron with the fifth overall pick.

The current projection is another prep outfielder, Kyle Tucker of Tampa.

There have been reports elsewhere that Cameron's asking price has discouraged the Twins, but BA says Cameron remains the team's "chosen target."

---

I am an unabashed admirer of Mark Buehrle, pitcher of baseballs. Friday he gave up four runs in the first inning and the Twins hit everything hard. Then he faced the minimum in the next eight innings.

Kenny Rogers, another lefty who won far more games than one would imagine possible with so little velocity, pitched one year for the Twins, 2003, going 13-8 in 195 innings. Time and again I heard him say in postgame interviews: I'm not afraid to go out there with nothing. Buehrle could say the same thing.

Buehrle got career win 205 Friday. (Rogers retired with 219.) They didn't all come against the Twins, but it sure feels like it.

Contemplating Aaron Hicks

Aaron Hicks makes one of his diving catches in center
field. This one came May 23 on a drive by Chicago's
Adam Eaton.

In Wednesday's post, I referred to Aaron Hicks' "balsa-wood bat," a metaphor for his light hitting. That afternoon, Hicks hit a home run.

Which still leaves the 25-year-old center fielder with a lowly slash line on the season of .240/.269/.320. His OPS+ at this point is 63 percent of league average -- and while those figures come for just 52 plate appearances, they are in line with his career figures to date. Nothing appears to have changed for him as a hitter.

I can, and will, concede that he's flashing some serious leather in center field. But even a Gold Glove centerfielder has to hit better than Hicks has.

And, of course, Hicks isn't going to be the long term center fielder for this team. Byron Buxton will be, and I hope sooner rather than later. 

A couple of years ago, I could envision Hicks as a 20-plus home-run guy with 80 or so walks and 20 to 30 steals. Even with a low batting average, those numbers and strong defense would certainly play in center fielder and possibly in an outfield corner. But he has yet to show genuine power, and the walks have disappeared.

Buxton has hit nine triples in May for Double A Chattanooga; the entire major league roster has nine triples for the season. He's had his ups and downs for the Lookouts, but the talent is inescapable. My expectation is that Hicks will continue to play center in June. And in July, Buxton will get the call. Whether there will be a role for Hicks depends in large part on whether he shows something more at the plate.

The imminent return of Casey Fien

Tim Stauffer hasn't
appeared in a
major league game
since April 29.

The Twins go into today's off-day with an eight-man bullpen, one more than optimal. On Wednesday, the rehabbing Casey Fien worked the second day of back-to-back outings; if he reports no issues with the shoulder that had sidelined him, he's ready to come off the disabled list.

So change is coming. Maybe changes, but certainly at least one of the relief pitchers has to go to make room for Fien. Who?

Cross off Glen Perkins, Blaine Boyer and Aaron Thompson, the closer and the current top two setup guys. (Thompson may be spluttering a bit now after a sensational start to his season -- he hasn't gotten through a full inning since May 9 -- but he's still left-handed.) Cross off J.R. Graham as well; he's not a key member of the bullpen, but this is not a time to break the Rule 5 commitment.

That's four of the eight, leaving, alphabetically, Brian Duensing, Ryan Pressly, Tim Stauffer and Michael Tonkin.

Duensing is likely to stay, with the left-handed thing working in his favor. But he hasn't been particularly effective -- 21 baserunners allowed in 10 innings -- and the one out he got Wednesday pinned Eddie Rosario to the outfield wall.

Pressly and Tonkin were part of the late-innings parade between starter Phil Hughes and Perkins Wednesday, Paul Molitor hasn't come to really trust either. although Tonkin in particular has come though in very brief outings with men on base. (Wednesday he entered in the eighth after Thompson gave up a hit to walk Hanley Ramirez and get David Ortiz on a weak grounder.)

Stauffer, whose return from the DL last week gave the Twins this eight-man pen, hasn't entered a game since his return. The starters haven't needed a long man for a while, and Molitor doesn't (and shouldn't) want to use him in a winnable game.

But he does carry a guaranteed major-league contract, and the Twins are unlikely to find any takers for it. So if he's the one to go, the Twins would have to eat the contract.

Which is what I expect them to do: Designate Stauffer for assignment (and eventually release him, since nobody's going to pick up that contract), reactivate Fien, and move on. Stauffer's signing was a mistake, but a minor one. The Twins shouldn't compound the error by keeping him around any longer.

The front office and the pitching surplus

I am increasingly being asked as I go around town: Are the Twins for real? The pessimist in me says no. I do not trust Mike Pelfrey and Kyle Gibson's low strikeout rates. I am skeptical of Danny Santana's erratic defense. I am wary of Aaron Hicks' balsa-wood bat. I can go on with things to be concerned about: Torii Hunter's age, Joe Mauer's decline, a bullpen stuffed with mediocre track records.

And behind all that, I have come on some level to mistrust the front office. At the core of my pessimism is my sense that Terry Ryan and Co. will misread these first two months success.

Here's the thing: There are solutions available to almost all the pitfalls I see (Mauer's decline being the exception). I'm just not sure the organization is willing to take advantage of those solutions.

For example: The Twins at the moment have a surplus of starting pitchers. Tommy Milone has allowed one stinking earned run in four starts in Triple A, and there's no room for him in the rotation. Plus Ervin Santana is starting his second spring training in preparation for a return from his PED suspension. Plus it's hard to see from here what more J.O. Berrios has to do to move up the ladder.

This is a good problem to have, but it's still a problem; Milone cannot be happy about his current status, and at some point frustrating him will become counterproductive. It's also an opportunity. There are, or will be, deals to be made in the coming weeks. Starting pitchers are valuable commodities.

My fear is that Ryan will seek to extend Pelfrey rather than move him this summer. (On the other hand, Pelfrey is represented by Scott Boras, and Boras's clients seldom do midseason deals.)

Now, it's be clear about what I'm NOT saying. I'm not saying the Twins should be frantically trading Pelfrey (or Milone, or Ricky Nolasco) for the first offer they get. They can be, should be, patient. This pitching surplus is almost certainly temporary. Pitchers get hurt; that's almost a third certainty in life (behind death and taxes). Move one guy now, see another go down next week, and suddenly this excess has evaporated.

But they have to be willing to seize the opportunity when it's there. Ryan's often-laudable sense of loyalty (or determination to see his previous moves succeed) may need to be set aside to do that.

The Twins Rule 5 'trade'

Sean Gilmartin was a starter
in college and the minors, but he's
working out of the Mets bullpen this year.

The Twins are apparently committed to carrying Rule 5 pick J.R. Graham on their active roster all season. That intent may be tested if they remain in contention and if Graham can't be relied on in winnable games.

Those are two "ifs," which makes it a highly hypothetical question. For what it's worth, Graham has a 3.63 ERA in 17.1 innings, mostly compiled in mop-up outings. That's the fourth-best ERA in the current eight-man bullpen, but he's not nearly that high in the bullpen totem pole.

The Twins were able to pluck Graham out of the Atlanta system because they chose not to put Sean Gilmartin on their 40-man roster last fall. Gilmartin is a left-handed pitcher the Braves took in the first round in 2011, then traded to the Twins after the 2013 season for Ryan Doumit. He split 2014 between Double A and Triple A in the Twins system, compiling a combined mark of 9-7, 3.71 in 145.2 innings over 26 starts.

Leaving Gilmartin off the 40 gave the Twins an open spot to use in the Rule 5 draft to get Graham. And then the New York Mets took Gilmartin. It wasn't a formal trade, but that's what it amounted to, Graham for Gilmartin. (Or, if you like, Doumit for Gilmartin for Graham for the course of a year.)

J.R. Graham's
presence on the roster
is more about the
future than about
2015.

As Rule 5 picks, Graham and Gilmartin can't be optioned out. They are use or lose. And with both the Twins and Mets both providing at least the illusion of contention through Memorial Day, they'd like to get something useful out of them.

Gilmartin, a starter in the minors for both the Braves and Twins, is the second lefty in the Mets bullpen behind Alex Torres. He's made 17 appearances and worked 14.2 innings (3.07 ERA), which suggests a LOOGY role (Left-handed One Out GuY), but he has appeared just once in a save situation. It's a different usage pattern than for Graham, who has pitched in 13 games and thrown 17.1 innings. Graham leads the Twins in innings per relief appearance. But I don't believe Gilmartin is being given chances to lose games any more than Graham is.

Graham is also second to Glen Perkins on the Twins in "games finished," a stat that serves in bonus clauses as a stand-in for saves and as a rough measure historically of relief ace status. In his case, of course, it serves no such purpose. He's finishing one-sided games, not close ones.

Contemplating Francisco Liriano

Francisco Liriano fires Sunday against the New York
Mets, He struck out 12 in six innings.

The Monday print column was in large part a review of the new book "Big Data Baseball," and in the process I mentioned in passing that author Travis Sawchik describes what the Pittsburgh Pirates did to repair Francisco Liriano's pitching.

Liriano, of course, spent years with the Twins, alternating between periods of dominance and periods of futility. He was traded to the White Sox in 2012 (in a deal that brought Eduardo Escobar to the Twins) and signed with the Pirates as a free agent during that following offseason. He's still with Pittsburgh, racking up a 16-8, 3.02 mark in 2013 and a 7-10, 3.38 line in 2014. (The Twins shelled him on Wednesday this week, but on Sunday he struck out 12 in six innings against the Mets. He is 2-4, 3.86 so far this year.)

His ERA in seven (full or partial) seasons with the Twins was 4.33; his ERA with Pittsburgh, including Sunday's outing, is 3.29, more than a run lower. So yeah, the Pirates have gotten more from Frankie than the Twins did. What did they do? And could the Twins have done the same things?

Sawchik offers three specific changes. One I think might be irrelevant, a second makes sense to me and the third I find dubious enough that I suspect the Pirates fed him a bill of goods.

The three changes:

• They had him raise his arm slot under the theory that a more overhand delivery would limit his wildness "east-west," or inside-outside. 
• They paired him with a superior pitch-framing catcher (Russell Martin), whose adept receiving got him a handful of extra called strikes a game.
• They had him drop his four-seam fastball and replace it with a two-seam fastball (sinker).

The arm slot thing, maybe; but the fact of the matter is, Liriano still throws fewer pitches in the strike zone than anybody. (And he tops the charts in getting hitters to chase pitches out of the zone.)

The pitch-framer, absolutely. Martin is near the top of the charts in that stat annually, and the Twins have not made that a priority when choosing catchers. If Martin got him, say, one extra called strike an inning, that's huge. The difference between, say, a 2-1 count and a 1-2 count is tremendous.

The specifics of the pitch repertoire, I question.

The Twins of Liriano's time, with Rick Anderson as pitching coach, were big believers in the two-seam fastball. I have to believe they pushed the two-seamer on Liriano. Whether he brought it or not is another matter. (I think he did, at least at times.)

Beyond that, I think the pitch the Pirates encouraged Liriano to throw more often was the changeup. Last year, according to Baseball Info Systems. Liriano threw only 43 percent fastballs. He threw 32 percent sliders and 25 percent changeups. In 2011, BIS says, he threw 52 percent fastballs, 29 percent sliders and 20 percent changes -- and I have a hard time believing he threw 20 percent change ups at any time with the Twins.

New pitching coach Neil Allen is a more vocal proponent of changing speeds than Anderson was. Allen might have been more effective with Liriano than Anderson was. We'll never know.