Thursday, April 30, 2015

Many losses in one

James McCann, Detroit's backup catcher, launches his
slide to conclude his inside-the-park homer Wednesday.
The Twins lost one game Wednesday. Also as many as three players to injury and their dignity.

Really, an inside-the-park home run to a catcher?

Michael Tonkin was reported on Twitter last night to be en route to the Twin Cities from Triple A Rochester. Who the right-hander will be replacing is unknown. I would expect it to be Casey Fien, the Twins second-best reliever, who departed Wednesday's game with shoulder issues. Another possibility is that the Twins will pull the plug on Tim Stauffer, who gave up three runs in two-thirds of an inning Wednesday.

But it's still (barely) April, and the Twins seldom admit a roster mistake until mid-May. Stauffer always looked like a dubious signing from here, and there's reason to suspect he's hiding an injury. I don't believe he's going to last long, but I also don't believe he'll get the ax for another couple of weeks.

We'll see what the medical reports on Fien, Phil Hughes and Jordan Schafter look like later today. I expect that the Twins will opt against letting Hughes pitch with a hip flexor strain; putting him on the DL would, for a time, resolve the how-do-we-get-Ricky-Nolasco-back-into-the-rotation issue.  

Schafer, who fell after beating out a bunt hit and left with some sort of knee issue, was reportedly moving around well in the clubhouse after the game. My guess is that nothing will happen there.

So that's my prediction: Hughes and Fien to the DL, Schafer and Stauffer remain.

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Staking his claim to a rotation berth

Mike Pelfrey allowed just one earned run in seven
innings Tuesday night. More striking: He struck out seven.

I've not been inclined to say nice things about the pitching of Mike Pelfrey. He has a long track record of, let us say, less than stellar results as a major league pitcher.

But I have to concede that he's been effective since getting a fresh shot in the rotation. Not merely better than I expected, but good. A 2.25 ERA is not to be sneered at.

Pelfrey's track record tells us that he's not that good. Few pitchers are. But even if his ERA rises a full run, it's a really strong figure. Which means he's not going anywhere.

His effectiveness creates a dilemma of sorts for Paul Molitor. When Ricky Nolasco comes off the disabled list, who comes out of the rotation?

I would like to see Trevor May remain in the rotation, but I expect he's going to lose out to the veterans, just as he did in spring training.

Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Notes, quotes and comment

Josh Hamilton on Angels owner Arte Moreno:
 "He knew what the deal was when he signed me, hands down.
He knew what he was getting. He knew what the risks were.
 He knew all those things."
It's official: The Angels shipped Josh Hamilton to Texas for a player to be named or cash considerations. My assumption is that there will be no player, and the cash consideration is the Rangers' willingness to absorb a fraction of Hamilton's contract.

I've sounded off on the subject here and here, and see no need to repeat myself. But I will add this: Even through commissioner Rob Manfred has shown no interest in investigating the leak about Hamilton's relapse -- a leak that appears to have originated with the Angels -- the Angels are getting punished for it.

All they accomplished with the leak (and again, I assume it came from them, but that is not established) and their subsequent on-the-record statements denouncing Hamilton was destroy his potential trade value.

In the end, the Rangers get whatever Hamilton has left for a mere $6 million, and the Angels will have paid Hamilton $110 million for two seasons in Anaheim. Signing Hamilton wasn't bright; being surprised that he hasn't fully shaken his addictions is even less so. But saying good-bye to him didn't have to be that expensive.

---

Two winters ago the Twins were linked to free agent catchers A.J. Pierzynski and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. They signed with Boston and Miami respectively, and the Twins settled for Kurt Suzuki.

The Red Sox released Pierzynski last summer. The Marlins on Monday designated Saltalamacchia for assignment; he hit .209 in one season plus a month.  The Fish have 10 days to trade or release him, and there probably won't be anybody eager to absorb almost two years of his contract.

Sometimes -- I dare say most of the time -- you're better off not signing the free agents you covet.

---

The Baltimore Orioles game (against the White Sox) Monday night was postponed because of the civic unrest over the death of a black man in police custody. There are many more significant ramifications than a baseball game or two from this crisis, but it does create an intersection between politics and sports.

In that light, this quasi-statement from John Angelos, the son of the Orioles owner and the team chief operating officer, is fascinating reading. It was assembled by USA Today Monday from a series of tweets Angelos issued in response to a tweet from a local radio host after fans were kept from leaving the stadium because of the unrest Sunday.

Brett, speaking only for myself, I agree with your point that the principle of peaceful, non-violent protest and the observance of the rule of law is of utmost importance in any society. MLK, Gandhi, Mandela and all great opposition leaders throughout history have always preached this precept. Further, it is critical that in any democracy, investigation must be completed and due process must be honored before any government or police members are judged responsible. 
That said, my greater source of personal concern, outrage and sympathy beyond this particular case is focused neither upon one night’s property damage nor upon the acts, but is focused rather upon the past four-decade period during which an American political elite have shipped middle class and working class jobs away from Baltimore and cities and towns around the U.S. to third-world dictatorships like China and others, plunged tens of millions of good, hard-working Americans into economic devastation, and then followed that action around the nation by diminishing every American’s civil rights protections in order to control an unfairly impoverished population living under an ever-declining standard of living and suffering at the butt end of an ever-more militarized and aggressive surveillance state. 
The innocent working families of all backgrounds whose lives and dreams have been cut short by excessive violence, surveillance, and other abuses of the Bill of Rights by government pay the true price, and ultimate price, and one that far exceeds the importances of any kids’ game played tonight, or ever, at Camden Yards. We need to keep in mind people are suffering and dying around the U.S., and while we are thankful no one was injured at Camden Yards, there is a far bigger picture for poor Americans in Baltimore and everywhere who don’t have jobs and are losing economic civil and legal rights, and this makes inconvenience at a ballgame irrelevant in light of the needless suffering government is inflicting upon ordinary Americans.

That is a manifesto one would not expect from somebody in Angelos' position.

Monday, April 27, 2015

The Twins and stolen base attempts

Robinson Cano applies the tag as Eduardo Nunez is
caught trying to steal second base Sunday.
Paul Molitor, as a player, was an efficient and prolific base stealer -- 504 career steals, 131 caught stealings, a success rate of 79.3 percent.

Eighteen games into his managerial career, Molitor hasn't translated his expertise in that aspect to his team. When Eduardo Nunez was gunned down in the third inning Sunday, it was the sixth caught stealing of the season for the Twins with only five successful steals. Since the sabermetric consensus is that you need a success rate above 66 percent to get any gain from basestealing, the Twins would theoretically be better off if they didn't steal at all.

I shy from such tactical absolutes, but it should be obvious that the steal has not been an effective weapon for the Twins. Eleven attempts is rather low -- Ron Gardenhire's teams had a season low of 85 in 13 years, and the 2015 Twins at their April pace won't come close to that many -- and the success rate is abysmal.

So what's wrong? Well, the scarcity of attempts starts with the lack of opportunities. All managers recognize that they have players who should try to steal and players who shouldn't, and the question that divides them is which goes in which group. I think it safe to say on the 2015 Twins that Danny Santana, Jordan Schafer and Brian Dozier are in the "send-em" group and Kennys Vargas, Kurt Suzuki and Trevor Plouffe are in the "hold 'em" group. Even if the latter were reaching base, they wouldn't be stealing anyway.

Well, Santana has an on-base percentage of .222, Schafer .154, Dozier .300. They simply aren't on base enough to do much running

Those three as also a combined 3-for-6 on steals, so even when they have reached, they haven't done well.

It should be mentioned that a third of the games have come against Kansas City and Salvador Perez, and Perez is viewed as the best throwing catcher in the American League. That's probably depressed the attempts too.

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Pic of the week

Picked off without a throw: Bartolo Colon tags out
A/J. Pierzynski.
This play came in the top of the sixth inning Thursday. A.J. Pierzynski singled with one out for Atlanta. He was still on first base one out later when Bartolo Colon executed a spin move and caught him too far off the base. Colon ran at him and tagged him out without a throw.

The play was scored as a caught stealing, pitcher unassisted. Now, I've watched a lot of baseball over the past 45 or so years, and I've never seen a pitcher actually chase down a baserunner from the mound. I do remember Pasqual Perez used to bluff such a pick-off several times a game, but he seldom got completely onto the infield grass.

That it would be a pudgy, 41-year-old Colon who pulled it off is amazing. And even though Pierzynski is himself a 38-year-old catcher and thus almost by definition immobile, getting chased down by Colon (listed as 5-11, 285 pounds) adds to the embarrassment. But Pierzynski doesn't embarrass easy.

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Resolving the Josh Hamilton dispute

Reports Friday had it that the Texas Rangers are about to welcome back former MVP Josh Hamilton, resolving one of the uglier team-player disputes since George Steinbrenner roamed the earth.

While the pending trade won't resolve the larger issue of guaranteed contracts and the owners' desire to break them (which I went into in the Monday print column), it will resolve this specific one.

The Angels will apparently pay Hamilton some $68 million not to play for them the next three years. Texas will pick up just $5 million a year on the outfielder, which is less than the Twins are paying Mike Pelfrey. That's a high price to pay to appease the owner's snit. I guess Arte Moreno can afford it.

Hamilton is probably not the player he was in his first go-around with the Rangers, and it would be foolish to expect that. (It was foolish for the Angels to expect that when they signed him after the 2012 season.) He put up a .255 batting average in his two seasons with the Halos and set, in separate years, career lows in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Even so, he was, by OPS+, a better-than-average hitter in both seasons. This is a useful gamble by the Rangers. I hope Hamilton embarrasses the Angels when the division rivals meet. More than that, I hope the return to an environment where he has had success helps him in his struggle for sobriety.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Figures from bullpens past

The sour news Thursday morning for former Twins closer Joe Nathan -- a second round of Tommy John surgery -- made me realize that as difficult as this year has been for the current Twins bullpen, it's been rougher for a lot of former Twins relievers.

A quick accounting:

Nathan has faced one batter, Torii Hunter in the season opener. He struck Hunter out on a disputed call, then went on the disabled. list. On Wednesday Nathan was to throw 30 pitches on a rehab assignment. He got through 10 and walked off the mound holding his elbow. The diagnosis the next day: tears of his ulnar collateral ligament and flexor pronator. He vows to return, but ... this will be his second ligament replacement, and the track record on repeat TJ surgeries is not good. Plus, face it, he's 40.
LaTroy Hawkins is even older (42), and had said this would be his final season. He opened as the closer for Colorado, but was stripped of the job last week. On Thursday he went on the disabled list.

Jose Mijares was released in spring training by Cincinnati. He was released the previous spring by Boston and hasn't pitched in the majors since 2013. And after he was cut by the Reds, he got hit with a 50-game suspension for a "drug of abuse." Mijares is only 30, he's left-handed, and he has a career ERA of 3.23 and a lifetime BA allowed to left-handers of .223, but he's wearing out his welcome very quickly.

Jesse Crain left the Twins after 2010, signed with the White Sox, had a big year by throwing his slider far more often, made the All-Star team in 2013 -- and got hurt before the game was played. He's since bounced from the White Sox to Tampa Bay to Houston and back to the White Sox, where he's in extended spring training.

Matt Capps was in spring training with the Braves, was released, then re-signed by the Braves. If he's still in their organization, he isn't pitching. He has just 12 professional innings in the past  two years. He's only 31, but it's not looking good.

Jared Burton, let go by the Twins, signed a minor-league deal with the Yankees, who released him during spring training, then re-signed him to another minor-league deal. This avoided paying him a retention bonus (which may have been part of the Braves' maneuvering with Capps as well). Still, we're several weeks into the season and Burton hasn't appeared in a game, majors or minors.

That's a full bullpen of former Twins mainstays who are now injured or just hanging on.

It's not all bleak for the ex-Twins. Anthony Swarzak landed with Cleveland; signed to a minor-legue contract after the Twins cut him loose, he made the major league team without benefit of an opt-out clause. But he's been the exception.