Kenny Rogers vs. Jack Morris

Jack Morris' last shot at the
Hall via the writers ballot
has plenty of competition.

The BBWAA on Tuesday released its Hall of Fame ballot. It's stuffed with Cooperstown-worthy players -- overloaded, really.

Giving the list a quick once-over Tuesday, I counted 12 players I would certainly vote for, and several others I might be willing to vote for. But the voters are limited to 10 names. If I did have a vote (and I don't), I'd have to discard a couple of players I'm sure belong.

There are four former Minnesota Twins on this year's ballot. Jack Morris (in his final year of eligibility) is joined by first-timers Jacque Jones, Todd Jones and Kenny Rogers. The two Joneses will probably get shut out, and Rogers is unlikely to get enough support to remain on the ballot in 2014.

Morris might get in this time, but I doubt it. He is at best the sixth-best pitcher on the ballot (behind Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina and Curt Schilling) and that's giving him the benefit of the doubt over some others.

Rogers, for one. The Gambler doesn't have Morris' Game 7, but Black Jack doesn't have Rogers' perfect game either. Morris has more wins; Rogers has the better winning percentage. Rogers's ERA+ for his career was 107, meaning he was 7 percent better than league average; Morris' was 105. Rogers had 51.1 career WAR (wins above replacement); Morris was 43.8.

I wouldn't vote for Rogers, not with this field. There are too many better candidates to vote for. But I'd vote for him before I'd vote for Morris.

Eric Fryer's roster spot

Eric Fryer: Do the
Twins really have a
major-league role
in mind for him?

The Twins, as noted in Monday's post, list four catchers on their 40-man roster: Ryan Doumit, Eric Fryer, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto.

Doumit is an established hitter with a contract. Herrmann is a lefty bat who can play a competent corner outfield. Pinto is raw behind the dish but a promising hitter. And Fryer is ... well, he's probably a good comp for Drew Butera: a good defensive catcher, no real reason to believe he can hit in the majors. (Yeah, Fryer's major league slash line is .302/.400/.395; that's just 50 plate appearances. His Triple A batting average, over three seasons, is .208.)

Fryer is 28, and this is his fourth organization (Milwaukee, Yankees, Pittsburgh, Minnesota). Presumably he's out of options. Organizational depth guys like him lose a lot of value if they can't be organizational depth — if they can't be assigned to the minors. Fryer's on the 40, so to ship him back to Rochester will require passing him through waivers.

Which is why I have spent the offseason so far expecting the Twins to outright Fryer to Rochester. If he opts for free agency instead, so be it. This is probably as good an opportunity for a player of his ilk as he'd find anyway.

Instead, the Twins have kept him on the 40. (For that matter, the Dodgers have hung on to Butera as well, and I know he's out of options.)

Why? Here's a theory.

As matters stand — and the roster certainly is up for change — at least two and quite probably three of those four will be on the Opening Day roster. Doumit has seen a good deal of his Twins action as the designated hitter, and catching is such a specialized job, and so subject to injury, that managers are often loathe to skip having a reserve catcher on the bench.

Let's say that:

• The Twins decide that Pinto will benefit from time in Triple A to polish his defensive skills; and
• The Twins don't sign a free agent catcher.

In that case, there's a role for Fryer. Of the four catchers, he's probably the strongest defensively; with Pinto out of the mix, he's the one true right-handed hitter of the remaining trio (which isn't to say he's a better righty hitter than the switch-hitting Doumit). Doumit catches about 50 games a year, and Herrmann and Fryer split the rest.

I suspect that if the Twins do sign someone like A.J. Pierzynski, it will be Fryer who gets lopped from the roster. But if they need to make room for a starting pitcher, it'll be somebody else who loses their spot.

The catching market

Ryan Doumit, seen in a 2012 mound conference, is
seldom mentioned in talk about the Twins catching situation.

Joe Mauer's not a catcher anymore. For the first offseason in more than a decade, the Twins don't know who's their No. 1 backstop.

They have four catchers on the 40-man roster — Ryan Doumit, Eric Fryer, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto — and good reason to shy away from any of them as 100-game starters. This has them prominent in speculation about a fairly rich crop of veteran catchers, which is rapidly dwindling.

With the likes of Brian McCann (five years, $85 million, Yankees) and Carlos Ruiz (three years, $26 million, staying with the Phillies) reaching big-ticket free-agent deals in the past week, and such veteran backstops as Jose Molina, Geovanni Soto and Brayan Pena finding 2014 homes as well, the primary speculation is about Jarrod Saltalamacchia and ex-Twin A.J. Pierzynski.

 My thoughts:

• Importing a catcher probably means optioning out Pinto to work on his defensive skills. I'm pretty sure he can hit well enough to be a regular major league catcher right now.
• Pierzynski, who turns 37 next month, is probably a good candidate for a one-year deal. Salty, on the other hand, is likely to at least match Ruiz' deal, and having him block Pinto doesn't make sense — unless the Twins are already convinced that Pinto will never be good enough to be more than a backup.
• Doumit seems to be overlooked in all this.

The primary argument against Doumit as a regular catcher is, of course, his defense. He's a hit-first backstop — and, as it happens, so are Pierzynski and Saltalamacchia. But Doumit is regarded as less adept than the other two, and he didn't hit to his usual standards in 2013.

A secondary argument — and a good one — is that Doumit, who turns 33 in April, has a track record of injuries. He has just one 100-game season behind the dish in his career, and didn't catch at all in September after returning from an August concussion. He's not a good bet to carry the bulk of the load.

Doumit has one year left on his contract. If the Twins do bring in a established No. 1 catcher, Doumit isn't likely to catch as often as he has since joining Minnesota. If the Twins don't, then I would expect him to share the job with Pinto.

Which is my preference. I suspect Pinto will learn more about catching in the majors — especially with Terry Steinbach on the coaching staff — than in Triple A. The old Yogi Berra line about working early in his career with Bill Dickey — Bill is learning me his experience — applies.

The Sunday Funnies

The ground rules in Brooklyn's now long-gone Ebbets Field did not cover a giant knothole in the right field bullpen bench. So when the Dodgers' Dixie Walker smacked a ball down the right field line that skipped into the knothole, Pittsburgh right fielder Paul Waner, a great player with an equally impressive reputation as a drinker, knew the ball was still in play.

He reached blindly into the hole but came up only with a handful of peanut shells. Again he reached in, groping desperately for the elusive ball as Walker circled the bases.

And a leather-lunged fan bellowed: "Whatcha looking for, Waner, a bottle of beer?"

On using 40-man roster spots unnecessarily

Earlier this week I suggested that the Twins had elevated two players — Max Kepler and Kennys Vargas—to their 40-man roster prematurely. Neither player, I argued, was likely to be taken and retained by a rival organization via the Rule 5 draft.

So what? What are the consequences of protecting players who don't need to be protected?

The obvious immediate risk is that another player who lost out on a roster spot will be snagged by another team. I'm not particularly concerned about that possibility here.

The player (pitcher, actually) who is widely viewed as the first guy off the 40 is RHP A.J. Achter, a 25-year-old reliever who had a good 2013 split between Double A and Triple A despite a mediocre control record and then had a 5.25 ERA in 12 innings in the Arizona Fall League. If nobody grabbed Anthony Slama in all those years the Twins left him off the roster, there's not much risk that Achter's going.

The longer term problem is that the Twins have effectively burned their first options on Kepler and Vargas. They aren't making the major league roster this spring. So this tightens by a year the organization's flexibility with them.

Meanwhile, if — when — the Twins sign some free agents, they'll have to open spots on the 40. (They have one open spot now, and presumably they plan to make a pick in the Rule 5 draft; they almost always do.) They can't bounce the four newbies.  So somebody else — somebody who, at least in theory, has a better chance of playing in the majors in 2014 — will get the gate.

The Tigers revamp their infield

Ian Kinsler has made three All-Star teams in his
eight major league seasons, all with the Texas Rangers.

The Prince Fielder-Ian Kinsler deal, once it becomes official, essentially means a complete revamp of the Detroit Tigers infield.

Presumably the Tigers will return Miguel Cabrera to first base and install prospect Nick Castellanos at third base. Castellanos is just 21 (turns 22 during spring training) and spent 2013 playing left field in Triple A, but third is reckoned his best position.

It's possible, of course, that the Tigers will add a veteran corner infielder -- ESPN's Tim Kurkjian on Wednesday night specifically named former Twins first baseman Justin Morneau as a possibility -- but if they really regard Castellanos as a major piece of their future, I think they'll avoid blocking him.

And that would represent quite the transition for a team that has prioritized offense over defense.

2013 infield: Fielder at first, Omar Infante at second, Cabrera at third, Jhonny Peralta at shortstop

2014 infield: Cabrera at first, Kinsler at second, Castellanos at third, Jose Iglesias at short.

That's three new faces, with the one holdover shifting position.

Peralta and Infante are free agents. Detroit general manager Dave Dombrowski had said early in the offseason that Peralta was unlikely to be re-signed; presumably the same is now true of Infante.

The Tigers traded for Iglesias in midseason just before Peralta was suspended 50 games for his involvement with Biogenesis. They are very different shortstops; Peralta has limited range but makes few mistakes and is a productive hitter. Iglesias is very rangy in the field but, despite a good set of rookie stats, is not expected to help at the plate.

Kinsler is Infante's superior in the field. Infante had the better 2013 at the plate, however, and Kinsler's numbers the past couple of years have not lived up to his peak production. Kinsler has benefited over his career from playing in Texas, a hitter's haven; his offense may well take a sharp drop between a less hospitable home park and advancing age. (Kinsler for his career in Texas: .304/.387/.511; elsewhere, .242/.312/.399.)

One wonders if the tradeoff of offense for defense is deliberate, or if it just happened as the Tigers sought more payroll flexibility. This projected 2014 infield wouldn't produce runs as the 2013 infield did, but the Tigers should be better with the glove at each position.

Jhonny Peralta isn't a particularly rangy shortstop,
but he's a better hitter than most shortstops.

I am far from convinced that the better defense will adequately compensate for the decrease in runs. I specifically doubt that Iglesias is a overall step up from Peralta (although he will be considerably less expensive, which will allow resources to be diverted to other needs).

Kinsler has been a top-of-the-order hitter for Texas; Infante hit at the bottom of the Tigers order. I'm curious about how new manager Brad Ausmus will handle this. The Tigers lost their cleanup hitter; will Ausmus move Torii Hunter out of the second slot to hit fourth or fifth and install Kinsler in the two-hole?

Setting up the 40

Max Kepler was added to the 40-man roster
in what may have been an unnecessary move.

Wednesday was the deadline for teams to move Rule 5 eligible players to the 40-man roster. The Twins put four players on the 40 -- LHP Logan Darnell, OF-1B Max Kepler, 2B-SS Jorge Polanco and 1B Kennys Vargas. They also outrighted RHP B.J. Hermsen off the roster, leaving them with an open slot.

Of the four, the only one close to earning major league time is Darnell, who split 2013 between Double A New Britain and Triple A Rochester. The other three spent last season in A ball -- Vargas in High A Fort Myers, Kepler and Polanco in low A Cedar Rapids.

I expected the Twins to protect Darnell and Polanco; either could easily have been taken in the Rule 5 draft in December. The other two are less likely to be targeted.

I expected, frankly, to be defending the Twins for not protecting Kepler. He is a very good prospect, but he's also extremely raw. I cannot imagine any team, even the talent-gathering Astros, taking him in the Rule 5 draft and carrying him on their major league roster for the full season. (Rule 5 draftees must be kept on the 25-man active roster or offered back to their original organization.)

There are, basically, three types of players who tend to be picked in Rule 5 and kept, and the third is pretty rare:

• Pitchers, especially lefties, who can be kept as the last man in the bullpen. (Darnell)
• Middle infielders with speed, who can be a second utility infielder and pinch runner. (Polanco)
• A catcher, who might be a backup on a team with a strong No.1 catcher or a No. 3 guy if he is a hitter who is weak behind the plate. 

It's very rare for an outfielder or first baseman to be taken in Rule 5, especially if they're being taken out of A ball. I don't deride either Kepler or Vargas as prospects, but I doubt the Twins needed to protect either this year. Obviously, the Twins see it differently.

---

The Detroit Tigers traded Prince Fielder to the Texas Rangers for Ian Kinsler. I don't feel like doing an exhaustive analysis of this deal right now, but I will say that:

• Both teams rearranged talent in useful ways;
• The Tigers got rid of a really painful contract for a less painful contract;
• The Tigers got the better end of the deal. My opinion.