The Twins could have won Sunday's game in the ninth, but Ehire Adrianza isn't Byron Buxton afoot, and Cleveland executed its relay well, and Adrianza -- who was pinch-running for C.J. Cron -- was out by about 10 feet at the plate.
Even after Adrianza was nailed, the Twins still had the tying run at second with two outs. But Jonathan Schoop has had a terrible season in close games -- almost all his production has come in blowouts -- and he once again didn't come through.
But I want to discuss the Adrianza play. A few points:
1. Adrianza was pinch-running for Cron specifically to try to score from first on an extra-base hit. There was a runner (Luis Arraez) on second, so a stolen base wasn't in order, and Cleveland wouldn't be holding the runner on first, so the man on first could get a longer lead.
So it wasn't surprising that Tony Diaz sent Adrianza. This was exactly what Adrianza was in the game for. If the Twins were willing to settle for a double scoring Arraez and having the other runner stop at third, they didn't have to run for Cron.
2. Adrianza isn't truly fast. He is a middle infielder, and middle infielders are frequently fast, but Adrianza is an exception. He has nimble feet -- he's good at fielding a ball and being in position to make a throw, but that's not the same as running 270 feet in three directions.
3. I thought at the time that Adrianza took a poor route between third and home, but on the replay I saw that he indeed cut third base well and took a more direct route home. We've seen players run a wide loop around the bases, sometimes running closer to the third-base dugout than to the chalk line. That wasn't the case with Adrianza.
4. Was there a better pinch-running option than Adrianza? Rule out Jason Castro. Maybe Jake Cave is faster than Adrianza. And Cave could have played right in the 10th inning with Marwin Gonzalez shifting to first in Cron's place. But I assume the Twins know who's faster between Adrianza and Cave, and it's quite possible that even if there is a difference that it wasn't enough to make the difference betweens safe and out on that play.
Monday, August 12, 2019
Friday, August 9, 2019
A cheery post
The Free Press this morning carries an obituary containing a sentence that sounds way too much like me:
John was happiest playing Strat-O-Matic baseball while listening to his extensive music collection.
That's enough for today. I don't want to think deeply about the Twins this morning.
John was happiest playing Strat-O-Matic baseball while listening to his extensive music collection.
That's enough for today. I don't want to think deeply about the Twins this morning.
Wednesday, August 7, 2019
Notes, quotes and comment
Jose Berrios didn't fare well Tuesday night. His first pitch was hit about as well as the last pitch on Monday night was -- both blasts hit the limestone above the batter's eye -- and things deteriorated from there.
I shall avoid dwelling on that unpleasantness and find some other things to comment on ...
* I said in Tuesday morning's post that Trevor May hit 98 at times on Monday night. He actually peaked at 100, on the pitch that got the double-play grounder that got him out of the eighth inning. I don't know that I've seen any Twins pitcher hit triple-digits.
It was rather optimal conditions for May. He had thrown exactly one pitch in game conditions in a week, so his arm was about as fresh as it could be in August. It was a warm, humid night, so no chill to contract the muscles. And it was a close game in a pennant race, so the adrenaline was flowing.
If he was going to throw 100, that was a prime opportunity for it.
* Jonathan Schoop has started once in the past six games. I'm starting to suspect that he might be a candidate to be DFA'd if the Twins need a roster spot.
He has been better this year than in 2018, but that's not saying much. And much of his production has come in blowouts. He is, I believe, a better defensive second baseman than Luis Arraez, but not enough to make up for the difference between the two at the plate.
I certainly prefer to see Arraez at the plate in the ninth inning of a tied game than Schoop.
* I've commented before on how much Rocco Baldelli shuffles players around various positions. Marwin Gonzalez, Arraez, Ehrie Adrianza and the injured Willians Astudillo have all started games at at least four different positions.
Deciding where to put them is frequently an interesting puzzle. On Monday Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza were all in the infield (with Jorge Polanco at shortstop). Baldelli's alignment had Adrianza at first, Arraez at second and Gonzalez at third. My inclination would have been to flip Adrianza and Gonzalez.
I do sometimes wonder how much of a connection there is between the position shuffling and the misplays and errors we've seen over the past couple of months. The Twins were changed with 77 errors in their first 112 games; the average team had 69.
Of course, there's a lot more to defense than avoiding errors, and the Twins, at least by the defensive metrics available on baseball reference, are solidly above average.
I shall avoid dwelling on that unpleasantness and find some other things to comment on ...
* I said in Tuesday morning's post that Trevor May hit 98 at times on Monday night. He actually peaked at 100, on the pitch that got the double-play grounder that got him out of the eighth inning. I don't know that I've seen any Twins pitcher hit triple-digits.
It was rather optimal conditions for May. He had thrown exactly one pitch in game conditions in a week, so his arm was about as fresh as it could be in August. It was a warm, humid night, so no chill to contract the muscles. And it was a close game in a pennant race, so the adrenaline was flowing.
If he was going to throw 100, that was a prime opportunity for it.
* Jonathan Schoop has started once in the past six games. I'm starting to suspect that he might be a candidate to be DFA'd if the Twins need a roster spot.
He has been better this year than in 2018, but that's not saying much. And much of his production has come in blowouts. He is, I believe, a better defensive second baseman than Luis Arraez, but not enough to make up for the difference between the two at the plate.
I certainly prefer to see Arraez at the plate in the ninth inning of a tied game than Schoop.
* I've commented before on how much Rocco Baldelli shuffles players around various positions. Marwin Gonzalez, Arraez, Ehrie Adrianza and the injured Willians Astudillo have all started games at at least four different positions.
Deciding where to put them is frequently an interesting puzzle. On Monday Gonzalez, Arraez and Adrianza were all in the infield (with Jorge Polanco at shortstop). Baldelli's alignment had Adrianza at first, Arraez at second and Gonzalez at third. My inclination would have been to flip Adrianza and Gonzalez.
I do sometimes wonder how much of a connection there is between the position shuffling and the misplays and errors we've seen over the past couple of months. The Twins were changed with 77 errors in their first 112 games; the average team had 69.
Of course, there's a lot more to defense than avoiding errors, and the Twins, at least by the defensive metrics available on baseball reference, are solidly above average.
Tuesday, August 6, 2019
Contemplating Trevor May
The Twins won Monday night. Cleveland lost. So the lead is four games.
(Let me note here that I apparently can't read a schedule. I thought Cleveland was playing Cincinnati. It's actually Texas.)
The win was important for the Twins. Perhaps even more important was the performance of Trevor May, who hit 98 at times in blowing away Atlanta batters in his two innings of relief.
May has been a bit of a disappointment this season. I expected him to emerge as a key late-inning guy, the most likely candidate in this bullpen for the role of closer. Rocco Baldelli, as you know, hasn't gone with the contemporary closer, but May hasn't really pitched well enough to seize the glory job anyway.
Monday was actually May's second straight outing in which he was credited with the win; he got one on Friday in a one-pitch appearance. Prior to that, he had allowed at least one run in five straight appearances, blowing two leads and taking two losses. It was not a good month of July.
It's not hard, looking at his stat line for the season, to see the issue. May walked five hitters in his 25.1 major league innings last year (he spent much of 2018 rehabbing his elbow after ligament replacement surgery); that works out to 1.8 walks per nine innings. Monday's outing gives him 21 walks in 40.2 innings, 4.6 per nine innings. That's too high.
Trevor Rogers and Sergio Romo had each pitched in three of the previous four days, and Sam Dyson is on the injured list, so the Twins needed somebody to take care of the final innings. May came through. It would be a bit help to the Twins if he continues.
(Let me note here that I apparently can't read a schedule. I thought Cleveland was playing Cincinnati. It's actually Texas.)
The win was important for the Twins. Perhaps even more important was the performance of Trevor May, who hit 98 at times in blowing away Atlanta batters in his two innings of relief.
May has been a bit of a disappointment this season. I expected him to emerge as a key late-inning guy, the most likely candidate in this bullpen for the role of closer. Rocco Baldelli, as you know, hasn't gone with the contemporary closer, but May hasn't really pitched well enough to seize the glory job anyway.
Monday was actually May's second straight outing in which he was credited with the win; he got one on Friday in a one-pitch appearance. Prior to that, he had allowed at least one run in five straight appearances, blowing two leads and taking two losses. It was not a good month of July.
It's not hard, looking at his stat line for the season, to see the issue. May walked five hitters in his 25.1 major league innings last year (he spent much of 2018 rehabbing his elbow after ligament replacement surgery); that works out to 1.8 walks per nine innings. Monday's outing gives him 21 walks in 40.2 innings, 4.6 per nine innings. That's too high.
Trevor Rogers and Sergio Romo had each pitched in three of the previous four days, and Sam Dyson is on the injured list, so the Twins needed somebody to take care of the final innings. May came through. It would be a bit help to the Twins if he continues.
Monday, August 5, 2019
The good and the bad
The Twins swept the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, which is good. A team on a 100-win pace, as the Twins are, should beat a team on a 100-loss pace, as the Royals are.
But Cleveland swept the Angels as well, so the Twins didn't widen their margin over the weekend. And the Twins have the tougher matchup next with the Atlanta Braves; Cleveland plays Cincinnati.
The bad news is that since my last post the Twins have put three players on the injured list.
Byron Buxton is the most troublesome of the injuries; he's likely to miss most if not all of August. In a very real way, Buxton is the most important player on this team, and he's simply got to stop running into walls. Nothing good comes of it.
I'm less concerned about the two pitchers, Michael Pineda and Sam Dyson. Pineda had a brief stint on the IL earlier in the season. Reading between the lines, the first stint was essentially precautionary, and it sounds like this one is also. "Big Mike" is on his first full season back after Tommy John surgery, and even though he's a free agent after the season the Twins are handling him with some care.
He's been pitching well, too, with an ERA of 2.23 over his last six starts.
Dyson ... well, the eyebrows rise when a player comes in a midseason trade, has two poor outings and goes on the IL. The Twins appear to believe that the IL stint will be essentially the mimimal 10-days. Dyson is said to believe he's able to pitch, but the Twins want to give him a break and get the soreness out of his arm.
So Dyson and Pineda miss these next two series on the homestand, Atlanta and Cleveland. It's early August, but this could be a critical week.
But Cleveland swept the Angels as well, so the Twins didn't widen their margin over the weekend. And the Twins have the tougher matchup next with the Atlanta Braves; Cleveland plays Cincinnati.
The bad news is that since my last post the Twins have put three players on the injured list.
Byron Buxton is the most troublesome of the injuries; he's likely to miss most if not all of August. In a very real way, Buxton is the most important player on this team, and he's simply got to stop running into walls. Nothing good comes of it.
I'm less concerned about the two pitchers, Michael Pineda and Sam Dyson. Pineda had a brief stint on the IL earlier in the season. Reading between the lines, the first stint was essentially precautionary, and it sounds like this one is also. "Big Mike" is on his first full season back after Tommy John surgery, and even though he's a free agent after the season the Twins are handling him with some care.
He's been pitching well, too, with an ERA of 2.23 over his last six starts.
Dyson ... well, the eyebrows rise when a player comes in a midseason trade, has two poor outings and goes on the IL. The Twins appear to believe that the IL stint will be essentially the mimimal 10-days. Dyson is said to believe he's able to pitch, but the Twins want to give him a break and get the soreness out of his arm.
So Dyson and Pineda miss these next two series on the homestand, Atlanta and Cleveland. It's early August, but this could be a critical week.
Friday, August 2, 2019
A bad first impression
Sam Dyson arrived in Miami in the middle of Thursday's game. Rocco Baldelli decided to ask him to pitch the ninth with a three-run lead. He got nobody out, and by the time Taylor Rogers got the Twins out of the inning, the Marlins had tied it.
It's an easy second-guess, and have at it. I won't join in the piling on. I knew Dyson was getting the ball in a save situation all along. He'll be OK.
What I also know is that there's no way Rogers should pitch today; he pitched in every game of the Miami series. Fortunately, the Twins are playing Kansas City. It would be a good day to get a lot of runs and a long start.
As if there's a bad day to get those things, right?
It's an easy second-guess, and have at it. I won't join in the piling on. I knew Dyson was getting the ball in a save situation all along. He'll be OK.
What I also know is that there's no way Rogers should pitch today; he pitched in every game of the Miami series. Fortunately, the Twins are playing Kansas City. It would be a good day to get a lot of runs and a long start.
As if there's a bad day to get those things, right?
Thursday, August 1, 2019
Most of what they needed
My wish list for the Twins in the midseason trade period was a couple of bullpen arms to help Taylor Rogers in the late innings.
They got that in Sergio Romo (on July 27) and Sam Dyson (on Wednesday).
Neither is left-handed, so that box went unchecked. And the Twins were apparently fishing in starting-pitcher waters as well but came up empty there.
I'm fine with that. The 2019 Twins aren't in need of a back-of-the-rotation starter, and at most three starters good enough to push Kyle Gibson down in the playoff rotation moved -- Zack Greinke, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Greinke had the Twins on his no-trade clause, and I can't imagine Cleveland trading Bauer to the team they're chasing. That leaves Stroman, and I'm not convinced he's better than Gibson.
A deal for a controllable starter would have given the front office a head start on rebuilding the 2020 rotation, but they'll have to deal with that problem in the off season.
For here and now, the Twins have a stiffer bullpen than they had coming out of the All-Star break.
This Fangraphs piece calls Dyson the best reliever moved at the deadline this year. He's not a big name (like Craig Kimbrel), but he's also not a ego trip who wants to be used only in one-inning save situations (like Kimbrel). He and Romo are an upgrade over the departed Blake Parker as right-handed complements to Rogers.
I view the Twins bullpen as three groups:
They got that in Sergio Romo (on July 27) and Sam Dyson (on Wednesday).
Neither is left-handed, so that box went unchecked. And the Twins were apparently fishing in starting-pitcher waters as well but came up empty there.
I'm fine with that. The 2019 Twins aren't in need of a back-of-the-rotation starter, and at most three starters good enough to push Kyle Gibson down in the playoff rotation moved -- Zack Greinke, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Greinke had the Twins on his no-trade clause, and I can't imagine Cleveland trading Bauer to the team they're chasing. That leaves Stroman, and I'm not convinced he's better than Gibson.
A deal for a controllable starter would have given the front office a head start on rebuilding the 2020 rotation, but they'll have to deal with that problem in the off season.
For here and now, the Twins have a stiffer bullpen than they had coming out of the All-Star break.
The @Twins announced today that they have acquired RHP Sam Dyson from the Giants in exchange for minor league outfielder Jaylin Davis and right-handed pitchers Prelander Berroa and Kai-Wei Teng.— Dustin Morse (@morsecode) July 31, 2019
Dyson will join the #MNTwins tomorrow in Miami.
This Fangraphs piece calls Dyson the best reliever moved at the deadline this year. He's not a big name (like Craig Kimbrel), but he's also not a ego trip who wants to be used only in one-inning save situations (like Kimbrel). He and Romo are an upgrade over the departed Blake Parker as right-handed complements to Rogers.
I view the Twins bullpen as three groups:
- The late-inning guys: Dyson, Rogers, Romo
- The middle men: Tyler Duffey, Ryne Harper, Trevor May
- The kids: Lewis Thorpe and Cody Stashak (I'm assuming Sean Poppen will be demoted today to make room for Dyson).
I'm good with that bullpen. I'll be even more satisfied if Thorpe emerges as a second lefty weapon.
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