Anthony Swarzak, low-leverage ace

Anthony Swarzak pitches in the 10th inning Wednesday.
He surrendered the game-winning homer to Seth Smith
and took his first loss of the year.

(Note: Stats updated)

Anthony Swarzak got the call for the 10th inning of a tied game Wednesday afternoon. He gave up a home run, and the Twins lost.

It fits a multi-year pattern for Swarzak. Bring him into a game that's been decided, and he pitches well. Use him in a winnable game, he fares ill.

That the 2004 second-round draft pick has fared better as a reliever than as a starter over the years is no secret. For his career, Swarzak has a 5.66 ERA in 29 starts, a 3.72 ERA in his 136 relief outings.

But Swarzak's problems in close, winnable relief outings is almost as strong. Baseball Reference splits relief outings into three categories: High Leverage, Medium Leverage and Low Leverage, based on win expectancy. For his career, Swarzak has allowed a slash line of .320/.368/.487 in high leverage situations, .282/.338/.429 in medium leverage situations, and .262/.309/.401 in low leverage situations.

Swarzak's splits for this year: .333/.467/.667 in high leverage, .349/.391./465 medium, .232/.269/.318 low. He has faced 31 batters in high leverage situations and walked six of them; he has faced 160 in low leverage situations and walked eight of them.

There are two alternative interpretations available. One is that this pattern is a fluke -- a multi-year fluke. It's possible. Even his career splits involve less than 230 batters in high leverage situations.

The other is that there is a legitimate difference in his abilities in tight situations. Perhaps the moment gets to him, the adrenaline rush is too much, and he grips the ball too tightly or something of that nature.

Swarazk's success in long relief and mop-up chores has prompted Ron Gardenhire to test him occasionally in set-up situations, and those have frequently gone awry. (For his career, Swarzak has seven holds, no saves and four blown saves, which means he's been brought into 11 "save situations" and coughed up the lead in four of them.)

Wednesday wasn't a save situation, but it was an important situation -- tied in extra innings is high leverage indeed. And, once again, Swarzak didn't get it done.

BA's annual tools issue

Alex Meyer in spring training. The newest issue of
Baseball America says he has the best fastball and
best breaking ball in the International League.

Every year Baseball America runs a "Best Tools" feature. There are some interesting things about the Twins and their system in this year's model.

Notable from the major league listing is the lack of Twins. For the big leagues lists (one for each league), the magazine polls the major league managers and lists a top three for each tool. The only Twin listed is Phil Hughes, third for best control in the American League.

For all the bragging locally about Brian Dozier's defense, he wasn't listed among the top three defensive second basemen (Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler were 1-2-3). And, no real surprise, Joe Mauer, traditionally listed in the strike-zone judgment category, is absent this year.

Things are a good bit better in the full-season minor league rankings, even with Bryon Buxton and Miguel Sano unlisted. For the minors, BA lists just the first place winner.

International League (Triple A): Alex Meyer is deemed to have the best fastball and the best breaking ball in the league. (But Marcus Stroman, already called up by Toronto, is named the best pitching prospect.) (Another parenthetical: former Twin Liam Hendriks wins for best control.)

Eastern League (Double A): New Britain was shut out.

Florida State League (high A): Adam Brett Walker, best power. Jose Berrios, best pitching prospect, best breaking ball, best changeup. Tim Shibuya, best control. Jorge Polanco, best defensive shortstop. Niko Goodrum, best infield arm. Doug Mientkiewicz, best manager

Midwest League (low A): Kohl Stewart, best pitching prospect. Nick Burdi, best fastball.

Much of these rankings are no real surprise. The one that jumped out at me was Polanco being deemed the best defensive shortstop in the FSL. He certainly struggled with the position early in the season. This suggests that the attempt to groom him as a shortstop may be successful.

Following up: Chih-Wei Hu

The news that Joe Mauer and Ricky Nolasco are going on rehab assignments this week in Cedar Rapids prompted a few minutes thought of darting down to take in some games in CR.

That notion didn't take hold, but I did take a peek at how the Kernels have fared since my trip there last month.

The Kernels were, when I arrived, playing poorly; they were near the bottom of the second-half standings, and they lost the first game I saw.

And then they started winning. It's purely coincidence that their hot streak started while I was there, of course. And the Kernels are now in second place in the division (second half standings), just a half game out of first. (Overall, they're still below .500 for the season, but not by much).

A lot of players had something to do with that streak, but as I reviewed some of the stats my eye was caught by Chih-Wei Hu, the 20-year-old Taiwanese pitcher I saw in the second game of my visit. That game was his first start in the Midwest League, and he got a no-decision. He's had four starts since then, gone six innings in each (as he did in that debut), and gotten the win in each.

He's 4-0, 1.50, with just 18 hits allowed in 30 innings and a very nice 29 strikeouts to just six walks. He has yet to allow a home run. I may be overly impatient, but it doesn't look from those numbers as if Midwest League hitters are presenting much of a challenge for Hu.

Hu has yet to take a loss in pro ball. He was 2-0 last year with the Gulf Coast Twins in the lowest level of U.S. minor leagues, 1-0 with Elizabethton this year before being promoted to Cedar Rapids, and now 4-0 with the Kernels.

Hu doesn't have great velocity, but I heard Brad Steil, the Twins director of minor league operations, on the radio cite his movement and his curve ball and note that he has two changeups. This intrigues me; a lot of pitchers struggle to master one change of pace, and Hu has two different ones.

This, for me, is one of the fun aspects of parachuting into a minor league city and taking in a few games. Hu is not a hyped prospect; as I noted last month, at least seven pitchers on the Cedar Rapids roster got bigger bonuses than he did. But he caught my attention, and if he keeps getting the outs, he'll start getting some attention.

Jordan Schafer, reserve outfielder

Jordan Schafer makes a catch last month
for the Atlanta Braves.

The Twins have had quite the parade of "fourth outfielders" this year. They waived Alex Presley coming out of spring training; he was grabbed by Houston. They had the brief Jason Bartlett delusion; that ended with his retirement. They brought up Darin Mastroianni for 11 at-bats and then waived him; Toronto grabbed him. They claimed Sam Fuld off waivers from Oakland, and that settled things until Oakland decided they needed him after all, and the Twins traded him back for a starting pitcher.

Which left the Twins without the traditional fourth outfielder, defined as a bench guy, often left-handed or a switch hitter, who can play center field. Fourth outfielders are generally legs and a glove; if they were truly quality hitters, they'd be regulars. That's a good description of Fuld; while he had a strong stat line with the Twins (on base percentage .370), his career OPS+ is 85, meaning that he's 15 percent below league as a hitter.

On Sunday the Twins announced that they had landed Jordan Schafer on waivers from Atlanta. Schafer is a former third-round draft pick who has split his five-year major league career between Atlanta and Houston. He's five years younger than Fuld (27) and an even weaker hitter (OPS+ for his career 68). He's fast (88 career steals and just 22 caught stealings), but the defensive metrics aren't particularly high on his defense.

Schafer is not as good a fourth outfielder as Fuld, but the move down in the role for the Twins makes sense to get the rotation upgrade -- assuming, of course, that they take advantage of the rotation upgrade by actually activating Tommy Milone, something they have yet to do.

The Twins haven't announced a move to get him on the 25-man roster (they had an opening on the 40 man roster created when they DFA'd Matt Guerrier). With today's off day, they can wait until Tuesday to make their move.

My guess: Chris Colabello goes back to Rochester. I assume the Twins want to take a sincere look at Kennys Vargas, and Colabello hasn't done much since coming back up.

Pic of the Week

Mike Redmond, former Minnesota Twins catcher
and now manager of the Miami Marlins,
gives umpire Mike Winters the what-for
after Winters' out call was reversed on review
from New York on Thursday.

Let there be no mistake about it: Replay review is just as imperfect as the human calls on the field.

Particularly irritating are the correct calls reversed in New York, as was the case in the eighth inning Thursday in the Cincinnati-Miami game. A Reds runner was thrown out by 20 feet to end the inning but New York ruled him safe on the dubious grounds that the Marlins catcher had illegally blocked the plate. That call tied the game. The Reds then scored two more runs and won 3-1.

MLB issued a nonsense statement the next day defending the reversal as a judgment call. The judgment was on the field. The reversal was an overly literal reading of the rule. There was never any chance of a collision until well after catcher John Mathis had the ball.

According to Peter Gammons, the entire Marlins dugout heard umpire Mike Winters pleading with New York not to reverse the call.

The umpires rotate through the New York replay center, and I'm really curious who it was that screwed up this call. There's been a few of them, perhaps most notably a call that suggested that catchers cannot be on home plate when trying for a force out at home. That one got a quick admission from the higher-ups that the replay officials erred.

There was no such admission on Thursday's call. But there should have been.

Sorting out the rotation choices

The red jersey didn't help Logan Darnell
(Darnell Logan to Dan Gladden)
in his second start.

He didn't get much help from the fielders, but Logan Darnell wasn't good Friday night in his second major league start. The lefty wasn't good in his first start either.

The Twins have given 25 starts so far to Darnell, Mike Pelfrey, Sam Deduno, Yohan Pino, Kris Johnson and Anthony Swarzak, none of whom seem likely to ever decorate the rotation of a contender. Meanwhile Trevor May, Alex Meyer and now Tommy Milone (who has twice been a rotation regular for a division champ and is 27) fill their Triple A rotation. 

There have been reasons for this, but it is aggravating to see opportunities directed to low-ceiling guys like Pino and Darnell  instead of the pitchers who might actually matter. Milone started two days before the trade, so his presence on the Rochester roster at this moment doesn't matter, but there is no good reason to have him actually pitch for the Red Wings while Darnell and Pino start in the majors. Yet that is apparently the plan.

The failure/inability to prune Kevin Correia from the roster at the trading deadline keeps a rotation spot filled with deadwood. Ricky Nolasco is to begin a rehab assignment next week (he and Joe Mauer will both be with the Cedar Rapids Kernels by Tuesday), and once he's ready to go, he'll certainly be in the rotation. There's too much invested in him. 

This team with a miserable rotation is pretending that there's no room for the kids. And it's not going to get better.

Consider the 2015 starting rotation possibilities on hand. Assume that (a) Correia is not re-signed; (b) the pitchers all are healthy and (c) there are no other additions or subtractions -- the first is likely, the latter two are not -- and the Twins have:

• Nolasco. He has three more years on his contract.
• Phil Hughes. No argument there.
• Kyle Gibson. He's been inconsistent, but by some measures he's been more effective than Hughes.
• Milone. Not a Cy Young candidate, but he has 2.5 years in the Oakland rotation without jeopardizing their status.
• Pelfrey, with one year and $5.5 million left on his contract. 

As matters stand, they don't even need the low-upside fillers (Johnson, Pino, Darnell) to block the high-end prospects next spring. Yikes.

Deadline day: Milone, Suzuki, Vargas, Fuld

It speaks to how deep Oakland's
pitching is that the Athletics
could discard Tommy Milone
for a backup outfielder.

The Twins did indeed make a deal on deadline day. One trade, and it looks pretty darn good from here: Sam Fuld back to Oakland for Tommy Milone.

They had other moves to make as well: they called up Kennys Vargas and signed Kurt Suzuki to a two- or three-year contract extension, depending on how many at-bats the veteran catcher gets in 2016.

Going through the moves, one player at a time:

Tommy Milone

A soft-tossing 27-year-old lefty, Milone has compiled a 32-22, 3.84 record in 80 games, 78 starts over the past four years. Yes, he's in Triple A now; that's because the A's overloaded themselves with starters earlier in July with the Jeff Samardzija-Jason Hammel trade, and Milone had an option left.

The Twins have been trying to add velocity in recent years. That is, emphatically, not Milone; he averages 86 mph on his fast ball. But he's been effective anyway.

Will that effectiveness continue? Well, he won't have the outfield defense behind him with the Twins that he generally had in Oakland, but Target Field, like the Oakland monstrosity, is pitcher-friendly. He's not close to be being the best lefty dealt on Thursday, and he's nobody's idea of an ace, but he will be an upgrade in the middle to back of the rotation. His track record says he's better than Kevin Correia.

Milone had dropped to seventh on the A's starting pitcher list with the addition earlier Thursday of Jon Lester, and he was vocally displeased about his demotion. For now, he's assigned to Rochester, but I rather suspect the Twins won't even have him report to the Red Wings. He started Tuesday for Sacramento; I expect him to be called up this weekend.

Kurt Suzuki

I opined in the Monday print column that a big reason -- really the only reason -- for the Twins to retain Suzuki was the lack of alternatives in the system. The veteran got two years guaranteed at $6 million a year -- more than double his current salary -- and a third year at the same pay if he meets playing time criteria.

What this tells us, besides the fact that Suzuki has had a surprisingly good season with the Twins, is that the organization doesn't believe in Josmil Pinto in particular or in any of the catchers in the upper levels of the farm system. That last is no surprise -- it's why the Twins drafted three catchers in the first nine rounds of the 2013 draft.

Sam Fuld

Everybody is falling over themselves lauding Billy Beane, the Oakland GM, for landing Jon Lester on Thursday. His moves with Fuld, on the other hand, don't look quite as nifty.

Fuld opened the season with the A's; he played centerfield against the Twins during Minnesota's home opener series because of injuries to Coco Crisp and Craig Gentry. When Crisp and Gentry were ready to play, Beane waived Fuld, and the Twins picked him up.

And now Crisp and Gentry are hurt again, and the A's plan to fill left field after trading away Yoenis Cespedes doesn't involve defensive whizzes, and Beane needed somebody who can handle center field and come off the bench to catch a fly ball in left.

So he surrendered a legitimate major league starter (Milone) to get Fuld back after giving him away.

Kennys Vargas

The Twins called Vargas up from Double A to fill Fuld's roster spot. They are not comparable talents; Fuld is a 32-year-old speedy slap-hitting outfielder, Vargas a lumbering 23-year-old DH-first baseman with bigtime power.

Vargas' solid numbers at new Britain were fueled by a monster month of May; he endured a stiff slump in July. I doubt he's going to shine in this trial.

But I have no problem with letting him try. The at-bats he gets will be taken from the likes of Chris Collabello, Chris Parmelee and Josh Willingham, none of whom are prominent in the Twins future plans. Vargas might be.