On firing managers and coaches

It is, apparently, that time of year.

The Texas Rangers and Florida Marlins fired their hitting coaches this week. This morning the Oakland Athletics fired their manager, Bob Geren.

Bob Geren was 334-376
in four-plus seasons as
Oakland's manager.

Even though the Twins have to be the most disappointing team in baseball, I would be flabbergasted if  any of the coaches got the ax midseason, or if Ron Gardenhire got fired at any point. The Pohlad-era Twins don't operate that way.

Minnesota last fired a manager in 1986 (Ray Miller). Coaches have come and gone, some on their own volition, some because their bosses wanted a change — but those moves always came in the cool of the offseason, not in the heat of competition.

Geren got the ax, it appears, partly because of the losing and partly because he was losing the clubhouse. While there are plenty of outside critics of Gardenhire, I see little reason to think the players no longer trust or respect his leadership or decisions.

But it occurs to me that since Al Newman was jettisoned, the Twins coaching staff has not had a former middle infielder directly responsible for working with that aspect of the game. Gardenhire was an infielder, but he's got other duties; Joe Vavre played infield in his minor league days, but his job is working with hitters, not refining double play pivots. Jerry White was an outfielder, Scott Ullger a first baseman, Rick Anderson a pitcher, Steve Liddle and Rick Stemaszek catchers.

No true infield coach -- and the quality of the team's infield play has slipped over time. Coincidence, or correlation?

Optimism and reality

The Twins have now won six of their last seven.

They still have the worst record in the majors, still sport the worst run differential in the majors, still have much of their payroll on the disabled list or obviously playing hurt. They're still 11.5 games out of first place, and 10 games behind one of the teams seen at the start of the season as a divisional contender.

They have a long way to go to realistically be back in the hunt.

More days like Wednesday -- when the Twins were the only AL Central team to win -- and I might start taking the notion seriously.

Phil Dumatrait has
pitched nine innings
with the Twins
with three hits,
six walks and two
strikeouts.

A few more comments on the Cleveland series:

* Are the left-handed components of the Minnesota bulllpen really that reliable, or are the Indians are simply that vulnerable to lefties? My guess is the latter. The biggest bats in the Cleveland lineup are either left-handed (Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo) or switch-hitters (Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana), and Ron Gardenhire leaned heavily on his southpaws. And they got outs.

Even Jose Mijares, who has had problems throwing strikes all season, was effective.

* Phil Dumatrait got the save with a scoreless 10th inning Wednesday, lowering his ERA to an even 2.00, but ... it's only nine innings, and the peripheral stats aren't that good.

* File this one under "about time": Gardenhire finally used Jason Repko as a defensive sub for Delmon Young.

* The Twins offense, productive against Kansas City in the sweep there and in the first game in Cleveland, sagged in the last two  -- not surprising considering the lineups look like spring training road games,

* The Twins have had just 21 home games so far, by far the fewest in the majors. They're scheduled to play 30 of their next 40 games at Target Field, starting tonight with the opener of a four-game series with Texas.

With no disrespect to the Cleveland Indians, the Texas Rangers right now pose a more significant challenge to the Twins newfound sense of competence.

Notes, quotes and comments

Day Two of the draft (rounds 2-30) for the Twins followed their recent form more closely than Day One did. There was an early emphasis on college pitchers, mostly hard-throwers reckoned more suited to eventual bullpen duties than starting.

Their third-rounder, left-hander Corey Williams of Vanderbilt, is deemed by Baseball America to be a "tough sign" as a redshirt sophomore. He's definitely tough: As a freshman, he was hit in the knee by a line drive, which cleaved the knee cap in half. He retrieved the ball and threw the batter out. Video and the x-ray of the kneecap here. As the headline on the link says, he's tougher than you are.

Also of note: The Twins drafted a couple more college shortstops in rounds 5 and 9, ... Their sixth round pick, Ivan Dereck Rodriguez, is the son of Pudge, the great catcher whose career is probably winding down. Baseball America lists the young Rodriguez as an outfielder, but some see him as a better pitching prospect

There's another day to go in the draft, but the deeper they go (50 rounds) the less likely the player is to sign.

---

Francisco Liriano on Tuesday:
34 balls, 47 strikes, three walks
and seven strikeouts in five innings.

Francisco Liriano did OK Tuesday night in his return from the DL. He was held to 81 ptiches, and his control wasn't great, but then it seldom is. One unearned run allowed.

He was followed by two more southpaws, Chuck James and Phil Dumatrait, who contributed three scoreless innings. I'm curious who'll be out of a job when Glen Perkins returns.  I don't see the Twins carrying four lefties in the pen, and James and Dumatrait have been more effective than Jose Mijares, but it's been Mijares used to protect leads of late. If somebody has options left, that may settle it.

---

Gotta be concerned about Denard Span, whose head isn't right. He sat out a couple of games after his minor-appearing home plate collision in Kansas City, played Monday and said his at-bats were blurry. They sent him back to the Twin Cities for further examination.

Adding to the concern is that he says he hasn't been completely symptom free since his 2009 problems with dizziness.

I would expect Span to join much of the Opening Day roster on the DL today. He has been, combining offense and defense, the Twins best player.

---

Delmon Young is still showing up in some defensive metrics as a very good left fielder — John Dewan's plus-minus system has him at +9 with 6 runs saved -- but our eyes tell us that he's still brutal out there. His misplay Tuesday night set up the only run of the game.

First name, last name?

A silly early morning thought: All three of the Twins' draft choices Monday could switch their names around.

Levi Michael, or Michael Levi.
Travis Harrison, or Harrison Travis.
Hudson Boyd, or Boyd Hudson.

Drafting for a need

It's probably not fair to describe the Twins' selection of Levi Michael in the first round of the amateur draft Monday as a "need pick." He was generally reckoned to be worth a mid first-round pick, and the Twins got him near the end of the first round, about 10 picks lower than most mock drafts had him projected.

He may well have been "the best player available," impossible to gauge as that is in a field of amateurs of various ages, skill sets and experience.

But the choice is being well-received in Twins blogdom BECAUSE he is a collegiate shortstop, and thus perceived as (a) nearly major-league ready (b) at a position at which the major league team is searching for an answer without a clear option in the upper levels of its farm system. (OK, here's a lukewarm reception.)

Which sure sounds like a need pick.

Point B is clearly true. The Alexi Casilla tease is back on -- Casilla's hot streak at the plate has jacked his batting average above the .250 mark, and he's making good decisions at short. Had he played in the field in April and May the way he has in the past week, shortstop would not be reckoned a disaster area. But one week of stellar play doesn't override the long stretch of lousy play, and Casilla has lost the benefit of the doubt. Tsuyoshi Nishioka is playing shortstop on his rehab assignment, and he's going to get the job when he's activated.

Point A -- that Michael is close to ready -- is far from established. He is young for a college pick -- he graduated high school a semester early, and spent what would have been his senior season of high school ball playing second base for North Carolina. He has one (injury-hampered) season at short in college, and the scouts are apparently not completely sold on him as a shortstop.

He'll start, once he signs (which won't be immediate), in the intermediate levels of the farm system, possibly at high A Fort Myers. There he'll not only have to display the physical tools to play shortstop but the judgment.

It's the latter that probably matters most. A shortstop only needs enough ability to make the plays that are there to make and the judgment to know what that play is. It was judgment that made Greg Gagne an outstanding shortstop; it is judgment that wins Gold Gloves for Derek Jeter. And it is a lack of judgment that has repeatedly undermined Casilla and Trevor Plouffe.

If Michael displays that judgment once he enters the system, he may well rocket up the ladder. But the Twins have been stocking the lower levels of their minors in the past year or so with shortstop possibilities, many of them as foreign signees, and some of them (James Beresford and Brian Dozier) are at or above the level at which Michael will enter.

In short, Michael faces more competition in the system that most of us realize.

And the Twins select ... Levi Michael

North Carolina's Levi Michael has been slowed this season
with an ankle injury, but it is not viewed as a long-term
concern, according to Baseball America.

Surprise: A college infielder.

It's been a while since the Twins used a first round pick on a collegiate hitter of any position. Michael breaks their mold — he's a switch hitter who started at second base as a freshman at North Carolina, at third base as a sophomore and this year at shortstop.

From Baseball America:

He's been a reliable defender at all three spots, and scouts are warming up to the idea that he could stay at shortstop at the pro level.  ... A patient hitter with a good eye from both sides of the plate ... hits to all fields and could hit at the top of the batting order, though he shows pop and is naturally stronger from the right side.  ...  Defensively, he has good actions and enough arm strength for shortstop. The only concern is his range ...

BA's mock drafts had him going well ahead of the Twins.

BA's Jim Callis tweets: Did not think Joe Panik would go ahead of Levi Michael. Michael has been banged up, so Twins get a bargain at 30.

Sean Gilmartin, by the way, was picked by Atlanta at No. 28. Panik, referenced by the Callis tweet, is a left-handed hitting infielder from St. John's taken by the Giants at No. 29; he's probably limited to second base in the pros because of a shoulder injury, which is why Callis expected Michael to go higher.

If Michael is indeed a bona fide shortstop, the Twins will be grateful he lasted so long in this draft.

---

The Twins drafted a high school third baseman, Travis Harrison, with their first compensation pick, and another high schooler, right-handed pitcher Hudson Boyd, with their second comp pick.

Harrison is a power prospect — this might be what I've called the Mathew LeCroy Memorial Pick. The Twins frequently use a supplemental or second round selection on somebody whose main tool is power, often without any other significant attribute — LeCroy, Henry Sanchez, Danny Rams. Harrison may not be able to play third in the pros, and there is divergent opinions on his ability to hit for average.

Boyd is a big body (6-3, 235 pounds), which means he's not "projectable"  -- he is physically what he is. His fastball velocity is in the low 90s, and probably not going to improve. (He's also from Fort Myers, Fla., the Twins spring training base.) Good breaking ball, change-up needs work —which is to be expected of a high schooler.

For what it's worth, Baseball America ranked Michael the 22nd best player in the pool, Boyd 58th and Harrison 78th.

More pre-draft stuff

Baseball America's final mock draft still has the Twins taking Sean Gilmartin. The commentary says the organization is targeting "strike-throwing lefties" and would prefer Tyler Anderson of Oregon, but they have Anderson going 16th overall (to the Dodgers).

No players from Minnesota are going to be taken tonight (all they're doing today are the first round and the supplemental first round, which is made up of extra picks awarded for lost elite free agents). None of the Minnesota players BA gives scouting reports on are from the Mankato area.

The Twins pick 30th, then pick at 50, 55, 87, 117, 148 and 178, and so on. They got compensation picks for Jesse Crain and Orlando Hudson, because the Twins offered those two arbitration, but not for Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes or Jon Rauch, because they didn't offer them arbitration. And, of course, they re-signed Carl Pavano, so no picks for him.

I said repeatedly last winter that I'd rather have the picks than Pavano, and nothing that has happened this season has changed my mind. I thought not offering arbitration to Guerrier, Fuentes and Rauch was the wisest thing to do, and certainly the lowest risk, and I'm starting to wonder about that judgment, at least in Guerrier's case.

A multi-year contract with a 30-something free agent relief pitcher is a bad bet, but arbitration is a one-year deal. Guerrier landed a three-year deal for $12 million from the Dodgers, and I don't blame the Twins for avoiding that bullet. But they did give Pavano a two-year deal for $16.5 million, and that's a bigger bullet.

The risk in offering arbitration to Guerrier was that he would accept arbitration and wind up awarded a one-year, $5 million deal. That was a real possibility, because as a Type A free agent offered arbitration he would be a very costly signing. The Dodgers probably don't offer him the deal he got if he also cost them their first-round pick tonight.

But if he had accepted, the Twins probably wind up walking away from Pavano, and they wind up with (a) less money being paid out; (b) a rotation spot for Kevin Slowey and (c) an established, reliable middle reliever. And if Pavano signed elsewhere, the Twins would have a pick from his departure, and if Guerrier HAD signed elsewhere, the Twins would have two picks from HIS departure.

But they didn't want to take the chance of both accepting. I believe they also expected Slowey would fit neatly into Guerrier's old role. That. obviously, didn't happen

I have the evening off, so I will monitor the draft and post a quick comment on whoever the Twins select tonight.