All. Tied. Up.

The tragic number is still 2. The magic number is 2.

The Twins are 85-76, and the Tigers are 85-76. One game to go.

This is a better race than the 2006 one — not because the teams are better, but because they aren't. In 2006, the loser still made the playoff field — and wound up in the World Series. This year the loser gets to go home and sulk.

Ron Gardenhire is going with Carl Pavano on short rest today against the Royals rather than Brian Duensing. I'd rather go with Duensing, but what do I know? Gardy's spent the last three weeks or so making right move after right move, many of which I doubted at the time.

He decided to install Matt Tolbert at third base. And Tolbert hit .333 — and slugged .444 — in September. (Just to put it in context: Joe Crede's slugging percentage this year was .414).

He embedded Delmon Young and Jason Kubel in the outfield corners, had Michael Cuddyer fill in at first base for the injured Justin Morneau, rode Nick Punto at second base, turned the DH job over to a platoon of Jose Morales and Brendan Harris — and relegated Alexi Casilla and Carlos Gomez to reserve roles.

Young hit .309 last month and has eight RBIs in the last two games. Punto hit .292 in September and, more important, had a .407 OBP. And Cuddyer has not only hammered the ball at the plate, he has played smoothly at first.

The Dome will be rocking today.

And in Detroit ... well, one ought not put too much weight on Web site commenters, but these fans seem pretty down on the Tigs.

When to pitch Duensing

The tragic number remains 2. The White Sox did their part for the Twins — Jake Peavy was brilliant, and Edwin Jackson continues to slide — and the Twins managed to survive some sloppy defense and middle relief work.

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Over at ESPN.com, Rob Neyer is first-guessing Jim Leyland's plan to start Alfredo Figaro today against the White Sox.

Neyer is quite willing to concede that starting 20-year-old Rick Porcello on short rest is not a wise option. His suggestion: Start Justin Verlander on short rest and follow, if needed, with Porcello on Sunday.

I suspect that the Tigers ruled that out on the basis that they want Porcello to have at least a full week off after his 111-pitch outing Tuesday against the Twins.

Anyway, it got me thinking about the Twins options with their starting pitchers.

Nick Blackburn starts today on three days rest. Brian Duensing is penciled in for Sunday.

There are three possible situations for Sunday.

A) The Tigers have clinched.
B) The Tigers remain one game ahead.
C) The Twins and Tigers are tied.

If it's scenario A, Sunday's starter will be of interest only for statistical purposes.

Under B or C, however, the Twins might be inclined to use Carl Pavano on short rest — definitely so if Duensing is used in relief today, which is a possibility considering how hard Ron Gardenhire used the bullpen the past few days. (Pavano pitched less than five innings on Wednesday, Scott Baker went just five on Thursday, and Jeff Manship was pulled Friday with one out in the sixth, so the bullpen has had to get 36 outs the last three days.)

Here's a question: Who would you rather pitch in a one-game playoff Tuesday: Pavano or Baker? Baker's the better pitcher, but ... Baker has four starts this year against Detroit; he's 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA, 20 innings; over three years, 2-3 (10 starts), 4.17 in 62 2/3 innings. Pavano is 4-1, 3.00 this year against the Tigers.

So, two choices: Duensing on regular rest on Sunday, with Pavano or Baker available to start a Tuesday play-in game, or Pavano on short rest on Sunday and Baker — who doesn't match up as well against the Tigers — for the play-in game.

Because, face it — if Gardenhire is unwilling to start Duensing against the Royals in a crucial game, he's not going to call on the rookie for the play-in start either.

The final weekend

The Twins obviously have no margin for error. They also have no good option to start tonight, and they face Zach Grienke on Saturday.

Apparently Jeff Manship (right) starts tonight, Manship and a cast of thousands. I figured after Liriano's disaster last Sunday that Manship would get the call, but ... I suspect he can become a useful major league starter someday, but that day is not here.

As I understand it, the matchups for the final series:

Friday

Kansas City at Minnesota: DiNardo (0-2, 7.52) vs. Manship (0-1, 5.81). Wow, a matchup that might favor Manship.

Chicago at Detroit: Peavy (2-0, 2.25) vs. Jackson (13-8, 3.38). Peavy's numbers are AL only. Jackson's August ERA was 4.45; his September ERA, 5.08. He's shot way past his career high in innings, and things are falling apart for him.

Saturday

Kansas City at Minnesota: Greinke (16-8, 2.06) vs. Blackburn (11-11, 4.08). Greinke is the unanimous pick for AL Cy Young in the poll. Blackburn will be working on three days rest for the first time in his brief career. He's 1 1/3 innings short of 200.

Chicago at Detroit: Garcia (2-4, 4.78) vs. Figaro (2-1, 5.74). The Tigers are holding back Rick Porcello after the 20-year-old threw 111 pitches against the Twins. Garcia's stats don't look like much, but he's impressed the Sox enough that he's penciled into their 2010 rotation.

Sunday

Kansas City at Minnesota: Hochevar (7-12, 6.24) vs. Duensing (5-2, 3.69). Hochevar is either brilliant or awful. Duensing is coming off the worst start of his brief career. It's possible the Twins would use Carl Pavano on three days rest instead if this game means something.

Chicago at Detroit: Danks (13-10, 3.69) vs Verlander (18-9, 3.45). The Tigers really don't want Verlander pitching Sunday. They'd rather save him to open against the Yankees.

Here's the Detroit Free Press' take on the matchups on the Tigers end of things. I think Michael Cuddyer's right on the Sox pitchers — these are the best the Twins could hope for.

The odds are definitely against the Twins, but these matchups suggest it's not impossible.

Game 4: Angry Young man

Tragic number: Still 2. The cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die ... for at least another day.

A weird game indeed Thursday, starting with the pregame flap over the video supposedly showing Joe Mauer stealing signs and relaying them to Jason Kubel. If he wasn't, it won't hurt in in the long run if other teams think he does; if he was, shame on Gerald Laird for using such transparent signals that Mauer can pick them up immediately.

Or perhaps, as I told a Detroit fan who happens to be my supervisor, he can't use camouflaged signs with Justin Verlander pitching lest he confuse Verlander.

Anyway, on with the weirdness. Marcus Thames got hit by a hanging breaking ball from Scott Baker; Thames took offense and retaliated with a cheap shot slide far from second base with an elbow aimed at Orlando Cabrera's crotch. The umpire at second, Lance Barksdale, could have — should have — ruled it a double play. He didn't, so tensions got to mount a bit there.

Then Jose Mijares had some sort of brain cramp. Apparently he was peeved because the Tigers were taking bases through defensive indifference. (Note to Mijares — if your manager doesn't care if they take second base, you shouldn't care either). So he threw a pitch behind Adam Everett. Had he buzzed Thames, I think people would have understood. This one was just stupid. So the umps warned both benches, and Jim Leyland got ejected on the same principle that frequently gets Ron Gardenhire ejected: Their guy throws at us, and you're going to eject our guy if we retaliate? That's stupid.

So then Jeremy Bonderman threw behind Delmon Young and nailed him in the back knee, and Young knew who to blame. Mijares. We had the odd spectacle of a hit batter about to charge his own dugout. (Photo above).

Menawhile, Bonderman and Laird got ejected, Bonderman for throwing at Young — which everybody knew was coming — and Laird for telling the umpire how stupid it was to throw out Bonderman. Which it was. The guy who should have been ejected was Mijares.

Call this game a monument to stupidity and leave it at that.

Watch Mauer steal signs for Kubel

I'm not a guy who check out Deadspin regularly, but this is interesting stuff. (Thanks to Circling the Bases for pointing it out.)

The subtitles are key.

Addendum: The Twins deny/dismiss the video.

Driving the Wedge

If a big jaw and the image of strength was all you needed to win baseball games, Eric Wedge would be Cooperstown bound.

Instead, he was officially dismissed Wednesday as manager of the Cleveland Indians, although he and his coaches (including Carl Willis, whose role with the '91 Twins will long be fondly remembered by a generation of Minnesota fans) will serve out the rest of their sentence — er, season.

The tendency among fans and media alike in judging mangers is to slide them up and down the idiot pole. He's a genius this year (because he won); he's an idiot last year (because he lost).

A more nuanced approach views managers (and, by the way, head coaches in other sports) as people with particular strengths and weaknesses. A manager spends long enough in a job, he often makes himself obsolete, because the things he is weaker at ultimately start to fester.

The defining aspect to me of Wedge's tenure in Cleveland was the bullpen. I don't know how much of the blame for this goes to Wedge and how much goes to other aspects of the organization, but this is true: Wedge had two seasons with effective relief pitching. One year they came oh-so-close to the World Series (2007); the other they finished a close second in the AL Central to the eventual World Series champs (2005).

Every other season, the bullpen flopped, and the Indians didn't challenge.

And for that, Wedge takes the fall, fairly or otherwise.

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The AP story above notes that Wedge is fifth in Cleveland history in managerial wins. With a win in Wednesday's doubleheader, he's just 9 behind Al Lopez.

That surprised me. Lopez is only fourth? He's in the Hall of Fame for his managerial prowess, and while he split his career between the Tribe and the White Sox, he's got to be considered the best manager Cleveland ever had.

So who's ahead?

Answer: Lou Boudreau, 728-649; Mike Hargrove, 721-591; and Tris Speaker, 617-520, followed by Lopez, 570-354, and Wedge, now 561-569.

That's three Hall of Famers (Speaker and Boudreau in for their playing more than for their managing, although Boudreau spent much of his playing career managing as well).

Hargrove is getting mentioned as a potential successor to Wedge, so he might get a chance to catch Boudreau.

Game 3: A must-win loss

Tragic number: 2

It would be an exaggeration to say this was the game for which the Twins got Carl Pavano.

They traded for Pavano in early August because they needed somebody to stabilize their starting rotation, and he did that.

But part of the attraction was his 3-0 record against Detroit while pitching for Cleveland, and he added another win against the Tigers since joining the Twins.

But his domination against Detroit fell apart Wednesday.

And now the Twins face this bitter reality:

After a three-week stretch in which they ate up almost all of what had been a seven-game lead by the Tigers, they must win Thursday afternoon or watch the Tigers celebrate in front of them.

To win the divisional title outright, the Twins must win out — and the Tigers must lose out.