The bad loss blues

It was one of Tom Kelly's managerial mantras: Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher.

In their first game after Wednesday's ninth-inning implosion, the Twins had Carl Pavano (above). Momentum was not on their side.

The game stories all duly note that the third-inning error, a key play in the game, was charged to Orlando Cabrera, but the stone-cold fact of the matter was that Cabrera's throw was where it was supposed to be. It was Pavano who wasn't there because he stood on the mound admiring the ground ball too long. (It is simple justice that the runs were charged as earned.)

And as far as holding runners on — forget it. Pavano led the AL in stolen bases allowed (29) coming into the game; Cleveland stole another Friday. I think I've seen Joe Mauer attempt one throw with Pavano pitching; as Bill Freehan, the Tigers' standout catcher of the 1960s, once said of baserunners running wild with Mickey Lolich pitching, "There's not a hell of a lot I can do without the baseball."

So OK, Pavano isn't particularly adept at those aspects of pitching. Man's 33 years old, and if he hasn't learned after 200-plus major league starts to hold runners and cover first base, he's not going to now.

The Twins as a whole weren't particularly adept at any aspect. Four errors and just six hits.

Meanwhile the Tigers won — just as he did last year for the Twins in September in Tampa Bay, Adam Everett had a big RBI base hit — so the Twins are six games out and sinking fast in the AL Central.

Back on July 19, the Twins — having won their first two games of a long post-All Star Game road trip — lost a 12-inning affair to Texas because knuckleballer R.A. Dickey decided to try to trick a good hitter with his fastball. The next day was the bizzare 14-13 loss in Oakland in which Nick Blackburn, with considerable help from Brian Duensing, Bobby Keppel and Jose Mijares, turned a 12-2 lead into a deficit and an out of position umpire blew a call from there to Seattle to end the game.

The Twins wound up going 3-7 on that road trip.

Back in May, the 15-17 to be precise, the Twins lost three straight one-run games in Yankee Stadium, two of them in extra innings. They then went to Chicago, where the starting pitchers put up three clunkers in a row, extending the losing streak to six. They went 1-6 on that road trip.

At least it's Scott Baker on Saturday.

Mike Redmond vs. Jose Morales

Some data points Ron Gardenhire either doesn't know or — more likely — doesn't believe enough to act on:

Twins' won-loss record in games started by Mike Redmond: 12-24, .333 winning percentage.

Twins' won-loss record in games started by Jose Morales: 9-6, .600 winning percentage.

Twins' won-loss record in games started by Joe Mauer: 46-36, .560 winning percentage.

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Twins ERA when Redmond catches: 5.54

Twins ERA when Morales catches: 4.59

Twins ERA when Mauer catches: 4.38

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Opposition stolen bases/caught stealing with Redmond catching: 30/5

Opposition stolen bases/caught stealing with Morales catching: 13/8

Opposition stolen bases/caught stealing with Mauer catching: 45/17

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And, of course, there are the hitting stats, which Gardy is certainly familiar with and which you can see by clicking on the linked names above.

I'm sure there are things Mike Redmond does better than Jose Morales. I can't find that they translate into results.

One strike away ...

and oh so far.

Tuesday's stunning collapse by Joe Nathan — in which a 2-0 lead with two outs and nobody on in the ninth inning and an 0-2 count on the batter somehow turned into a 4-2 defeat — seems, in retrospect, almost inevitable considering how difficult recent innings have been for Minnesota's ace closer.

Everybody, I supposes, has a theory on what's wrong with Nathan. Patrick Reusse thinks he's nibbling. Steve Stone — I watched that ninth-inning disaster on WGN — says it's a lack of command of the slider. Bert Blyleven has been talking about his lack of command of the fastball. Ron Gardenhire thinks his arm slot is too low. Nathan himself said Tuesday's troubles came from being "too predictable" with his pitches.

My notion is this: From July 29 to August 18 — almost three weeks — the Twins were utterly without save opportunities. During that time, he picked up four innings of mop-up work.

Since then, starting with his save on Aug. 18, he's pitched eight times. All have been save opportunities; he has blown two of those, and the Twins came back to win one of them. So Tuesday was the first time Nathan's struggles actually cost a game.

In those eight outings beginning Aug. 18, Nathan has had two 1-2-3 innings. Such crisp outings have been rare; he has had appearances in which he threw 53 pitches (the first blown save, against Kansas City); 31 (Tuesday), 29; and 22 pitches. The efficient innings just aren't coming.

For the season as a whole, he has allowed 17 walks; six have come in that stretch, a rate of 6.28 walks per nine innings. For the season, he's at 2.92 BB/9. (His numbers here)

My sense of it, then, is that his command in general dissipated during that long period of relative inactivity, when his teammates' inconsistency resulted in games that didn't fit the model for using him.

He's 34, and the radar guns no longer light up as they did when he got to Minnesota six seasons back. The 97s and 96s are gone, replaced by 91s and 92s. Which is sufficient — if it's efficient.

It hasn't been.

The masculine editon

Where men are men ...

* Back on Aug. 12, third baseman Adrian Beltre of the Seattle Mariners paid for his career-long refusal to wear a protective cup. In the ninth inning of that game, he took a wicked one-hopper off his genetic legacy. He somehow played another five innings with a ruptured testicle.

He came off the disabled list Tuesday. He still has a tear in a testicle, and there's still swelling, but he played.

And wore a cup. Under protest.

How are his teammates treating all this? Ken Griffey Jr. arranged it so that when Beltre came to the plate for the first time, the PA system played the theme from the Nutcracker.

* The photo above is of Mets third baseman David Wright wearing one of the new Rawlings batting helmets during batting practice. The S100 is said to be vastly more protective than the current models, and its use will be mandatory in the minor leagues next season, but it's getting some resistance from major leaguers more concerned with style than safety.

Not Wright, however. He got nailed in the noggin on Aug. 15 by a Matt Cain fastball, and Cain throws hard.

The first helmets were resisted. The ear flaps were resisted. The rule instituted last season require base coaches to wear helmets was resisted. I suspect players will eventually accept the ... different ... look of the S100.

* From a newsroom colleague upon learning Tuesday night that the Twins starting pitcher was Jeff Manship:

Is that his real name? ... Can I have it?

Who needs Rich Harden?

Had the Twins traded for Rich Harden, as was much imagined/desired/dreamed of during the weekend, he would have started Tuesday's game against the White Sox, not Jeff Manship.

Had Harden pitched Tuesday against the White Sox as he did on Monday against the Houston Astros — five innings, five runs allowed — the Twins probably lose that game.

Manship only went five innings too, but he had an excuse; he's been pitching garbage relief since he got called up from Triple A Rochester almost three weeks ago. He didn't get the "W," but the Twins did, and he darn well ought to get another start. Five innings of one-run ball was everything the Twins could have hoped for.

And four runs better than Harden did the night before for the Cubbies.

This is not to say that Manship is better than Harden. It is to say that sample size matters, and when you're only dealing with five or six starts — or one start — there's no guarantee that reputation and established ability will win out.

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Jose Morales — No. 58 in the celebration photo above — is the second Jose Morales to be a reserve catcher/pinch hitter for the Twins.

The first one was a favorite of Gene Mauch, both in Montreal and then in Minnesota, and was a catcher in name only. What he really was was a specialist, a right-handed bat who could come off the bench cold and hit line drives. He appeared in 733 games in 12 seasons, 1973-84; 486 of them were as a pinch hitter and 265 others were as a DH.

As a pinch hitter, Jose Morales 1.0 hit .276; his 123 career pinch hits is eighth all-time.

Now we have Jose Morales 2.0. This one's a switch hitter, and a more reliable defensive catcher than 1.0 (which isn't saying a whole lot). He has been shuttled between Minnesota and Rochester, and has now four pinch hits in 10 tries.

None of them bigger than Tuesday night's game winner. Kid can hit.

The player to be named is named Mulvey

Kevin Mulvey, one of the pitchers the twins got in Johan Santana trade, is headed to Arizona as part of the Jon Rauch trade.

Judging from the above statement from the Twins, there's cash flowing in both directions as well, but that's probably a technicality. The trade was Rauch for Mulvey, and I'm fine with that. Happier with that than I was with Carl Pavano for Yohan Pino, because Rauch will be around next season.

Mulvey hadn't developed the way I, and I assume the Twins, expected he would when they got him. Here are his pro ball numbers. Note the slight regression while repeating Triple A this year. Almost exactly the same innings, but more walks, fewer strikeouts and a worse ERA. He certainly didn't improve.

Which is why it's Jeff Manship (above) getting the start today against the White Sox. It's not that the Twins expect Manship to be great; by all accounts, they think he's up too soon. But the Twins clearly had come to regard him as a better option than Mulvey.

The trade of Mulvey, coupled with the fact that Phil Humber has been dropped from the 40-man roster twice this season, breaks the direct take from the Santana trade down to Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra, although the Twins now have Rauch as a spinoff. Guerra has at least had a decent bounce-back season after a rough 2008 — note the vastly improved walk and strikeout rates.

White Sox, white flag

The Chicago White Sox are now 1-7 on their "make or break" road trip through Fenway Park, Yankee Stadium, the Metrodome and Wrigley Field. The trip isn't over, but their season ambitions are. The team broke, and now GM Kenny Williams is sweeping away the pieces.

From late Monday night, but before the 11 p.m. Central deadline for postseason eligibility: Jim Thome to the Dodgers, Jose Conteras to the Rockies. Go figure.

Thome (left) is a slugger in decline, a DH going to a league without the DH and moving from a home-run friendly venue to one of the great pitchers parks. His slugging percentage has slipped each season since he joined the White Sox for the 2006 season, and he hasn't played on defense since 2007.

L.A is picking up more than $2 million in salary the rest of the month for a pinch hitter. And they knew it when they made the trade. From Dodger GM Ned Colletti:

We're not bringing him over here to play first base. We're bring him here to come off the bench and be a great influence in the clubhouse. He's one of the true great guys in the game.

In fact, the night before the deadline he called me. ... He just said: "I just want to be honest with you. I'd love to come. I want to help you guys any way I can. But playing first base is not something I'm going to be able to do -- maybe in an emergency situation, perhaps."

The Conteras deal is even odder, because Thome can still hit. Why anybody would give anything for the aging Cuban right-hander is a wonder. He's 5-13 with a 5.42 ERA — and the ERA understates how many runs he's surrenders, sicne it excludes the 14 unearned runs. And now he's going to Coors Field? Ugh.

Ozzie Guillen kept saying he was pulling the plug on Contreras, then sticking him back in the rotation. That pattern, at least, will now change.