Setting the table for trade speculation

Mike Pelfrey's ERA
went from 3.06 to 3.81
Monday night.

A Boston Globe piece Sunday casually listed the Twins among teams looking at potential trade candidates Jeff Samardzija (White Sox) and Clay Buchholz (Red Sox). The paragraph listed nine teams -- that's almost a third of MLB -- and didn't put any particular emphasis on any of them.

And I don't see any real reason to buy into that kind of talk. The fact is, the Twins ought not be in the market for another right-handed starter. They have too many of them as it is, This weekend Ervin Santana comes off his suspension, and then what?

So as June turns into July and the trade deadline edges ever closer, let us not be gullible -- not even after a game such as Monday's, in which the starter was bad and the lineup put up seven runs.

The Twins may well seek to add pieces in the next few weeks -- but those pieces will be position players and relievers, not starters. Indeed, it's plausible -- perhaps even wise -- that the Twins will trade away a starter in July.

Paul Molitor has started four different men at shortstop this season (Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Nunez). He has started five different center fielders (Jordan Schafer, Shane Robinson, Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario). He has started five different left fielders (Oswaldo Arcia, Robinson, E
scobar, Rosario, Nunez). He's split up the DH role six ways (Kennys Vargas, Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, Nunez, Escobar, even one start for Santana).

While I believe the lineup juggling has benefited the team, the Twins entered Monday's game just 10th in the American League in runs scored. There's only so much lemonade to squeeze out of this fruit.

To trade for a starter would be fixing a problem that doesn't exist. And I have to believe that Terry Ryan, Molitor and the rest of the decision makers know that.

More on Torii Hunter as a Hall of Fame candidate

Torii Hunter watches one of his two homers on Saturday
leave the yard in Milwaukee.

I wrote far too much for the Monday print column on Torii Hunter, the Hall of Fame, and center fielders who are in or out.

Too much is not enough for me, I guess. Here's a tangent I left out.

Hunter moved from center to right in midseason 2010. This, in my view, not only does not hurt his Hall of Fame case, it enhances it.

Center field is a premium defensive position. The ability to cover ground is essential, and teams will put up with a certain lack of offense to have a good defensive center fielder. This is why Aaron Hicks keeps getting playing time despite his anemic hitting.

Most center fielders, when they lose a step or two in the outfield, quickly fade out of the majors. They don't hit well enough to fill a corner outfield role, and if they aren't good enough defensively for the middle garden, they're done.

The ones who can hit move to a less demanding position. Mickey Mantle played first base the last few years of his career. Ty Cobb moved to right field for the last two seasons of his career. Kirby Puckett, of course, ended his career as a right fielder.  Andre Dawson would be an example more comparable to Hunter, although in his 20s he hit for better averages than Hunter did.

Hunter, in his first go-around with the Twins, was an exemplar of a center field type: Defense and power, but with a relatively low batting averages and high strikeout rates. This isn't as common as the speedy slap-hitting leadoff types, but there have been other examples: Vince DiMaggio (older brother of Joe). Mike Cameron. Paul Blair. Andruw Jones.

Those four were all quality center fielders, All Stars and (if the awards existed during their time) Gold Glove winners. But when they stopped being regular center fielders, they stopped being regulars. They hung on a bit as part-time players, but their days of 500-plus at-bats were gone.

Hunter turned out differently. He somehow hit better with age. Only now, approaching age 40, are his numbers receding back toward league average (and his three home runs this weekend have spiked his OPS+ sharply, so that he's now well above average for the season). His batting decline, such as it is, is coming about a decade behind schedule.

The point is: It's exceedingly rare for somebody to play center field into his late 30s. Only the best of the best get to do that. It's a real indication of quality for an aging center fielder to move to an easier defensive position and extend his career that way.

Pic of the Week

Matt Kirby, a volunteer assistant pitching coach for the
University of Virginia, adds his weight to the celebratory
dogpile after the Cavaliers won the College World Series.

Somewhere under that pile is a second-round draft pick who is probably hoping that he doesn't get his shoulder separated in all the joy.

One of those days

Nothing much went right for the Twins on Friday.

Problem One: Byron Buxton went on the disabled list with a sprained thumb. The Twins put the timeline for his return at four to six weeks. Then he'll probably have a rehab stint in the minors. We're looking at mid-August for his return, is my guess.

With Aaron Hicks also on the disabled list, the Twins started Shane Robinson in center Friday against a right-handed pitcher, which is sub-optimal.

Danny Santana was recalled and warned by Paul Molitor that he might be pressed into center field duties, a la last season. Which gives me that "here we go again" feeling. But even if they slide Eddie Rosario into center (my preferred solution), that just means somebody else has to play left -- and if not Robinson, it's going to be an infielder.

So the outfield defense -- to my way of thinking the key improvement to this team -- is suddenly looking shakier.

Problem Two: Ricky Nolasco tested his troublesome ankle and his new orthotics with a bullpen session. That didn't go well.

Not that there's room for Nolasco in the rotation at the moment anyway, but the Twins would rather have their $49 million pitcher functioning.

Problem Three: Trevor May got one out Friday night against the lowly Brewers. One stinking out.

His ERA rose from 4.03 to 4.62.

One bad start is one bad start, and I still regard May as a better bet than at least two other members of the rotation. But two other facts remain: One, May has roster flexibility; Two, Ervin Santana has to be added to the 25-man roster after seven more games. This bad outing makes it all too easy for the Twins to take the easy route to open a slot for E. Santana.

Problem Four: Alex Meyer got lit up in his major league debut, allowing four runs in 1.2 innings. That's hardly pushing him up the bullpen totem pole.

OK, here's a silver lining: Brian Duensing had three shutout innings and Aaron Thompson one.

Signs of effectiveness from those lefties are welcome. But they don't make up for the bad news.

Alex Meyer, relief pitcher

Alex Meyer in his four-pitch outing in the Futures Game
last July at Target Field.

There I go again, assuming that the Twins will -- finally -- get back to the 12-man pitching staff they say they prefer.

I predicted Thursday morning that Danny Santana was about to return to the big club. Instead, the spot opened by the demotion of Michael Tonkin will be filled by Alex Meyer.

Which is quite alright with me. Meyer as a starter hasn't forced the Twins to bring him up even when he was going good, and this spring he was the opposite of good. The Twins moved him to the bullpen about a month ago with a bloated 7.08 ERA. Nine relief outings later, he's pared that ERA down almost two runs (5.11).

Terry Ryan insisted when the bullpen move was made that this was temporary, that the Twins still see Meyer as a starter. I opined at the time that it might be time to abandon that notion. Meyer is 25 and it's time for the Twins to start getting something out of the Denard Span trade.

Granted, the Twins didn't trade Span for a set-up guy, but right now they have at least eight starters who should rate ahead of Meyer -- the five currently in the rotation, Ervin Santana, Ricky Nolasco and Jose Berrios.

We shouldn't expect Meyer to be thrown immediately into high leverage situations, but if he maintains the command of his fastball-slider arsenal that he's displayed as a reliever in Triple A, that will come soon enough.

The Kansas City Royals the last few years have demonstrated that if the power arms in the bullpen are powerful enough, the LOOGY role -- Left-handed One Out GuY -- is basically irrelevant. Given the ineffectiveness of Brian Duensing and Aaron Thompson in recent weeks, it would benefit the Twins to get to the same point.

12 pitchers and Santanas in waiting

Michael Tonkin
is back on the
Rochester shuttle.

The Twins demoted relief pitcher Michael Tonkin after Wednesday's game and will bring up an additional hitter before resuming play Friday in Milwaukee. Six games in National League parks, which means six games without the DH, which means more pinch-hitters are likely to be needed.

This is the first time in a month or so that the Twins have pared the pitching staff down to 12 arms. Beleaguered lefties Brian Duensing (8.22 ERA for the season) and Aaron Thompson (5.40) remain, although to what purpose is uncertain, Duensing hasn't been used in a win since June 4. Thompson's June ERA is 15.42, and six of the last eight men to face him have gotten hits or walks.

It may be that the hitter the Twins bring up today will go back down when Ervin Santana comes off his suspension nine games from now, but that would mean not only returning to a 13-man staff (plausible) but moving one of the current starters to the bullpen (less so).

But that's a problem to solve next week. Today the Twins have to settle on a bat to bring up, and it will presumably be somebody already on the 40-man roster. While they have an open slot on the 40, that's earmarked for Santana.

Position players on the 40 but not now on the 25-man roster:

Oswaldo Arcia, Doug Bernier, Aaron Hicks (DL), Max Kepler, Josmil Pinto, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano, Danny Santana.

Pinto would be a reasonable pinch-hitter choice, but as far as I know he's still sidelined by his concussion issues. Arcia, after 22 games in Rochester, is hitting .192/.233/.295; he's not coming up. Kepler and Sano, both in Double A, have strong call-up cases, but I don't think the Twins are bringing either up for a reserve role. Hicks is to start a rehab assignment in Triple A Friday and still has a few days he has to spend on the DL anyway.

My guess: Santana. He played a game in the outfield the other day for Rochester, which might mean something in this context. He's hitting .308/.343/.492. If Paul Molitor sticks him back at shortstop, Eduardo Nunez either plays outfield or becomes a pinch hit option. The same set of possibilities exist for Polanco or Bernier, but Santana is probably higher on the totem pole than either of them.

A Torii Hunter rant

Torii Hunter before a recent road game.

I spent much of the offseason grousing about the Torii Hunter signing. A major component to my displeasure with the move was the analytical evidence that his once-stellar outfield play had become substandard.

I have refrained this season from criticizing Hunter for specific fielding plays, in large part because I doubt my own objectivity on the matter and don't want to damage my credibility. Some readers accept the analytics, some don't. I figure the analytic scores this season will tell their story (which is, at this point, somewhat better than last years but still not good) without me.

But this business of picking up balls in right field and casually flipping them into short center field has provoked me. Hunter did it earlier in the month, when a ball careened off shortstop Jorge Polanco. And he did it again Tuesday night in the ninth inning, when struggling reliever Aaron Thompson gave up his second single to as many hitters.

In both cases, the toss came as a game was getting away. And maybe I'm reading too much into this, but in both cases the play came off as more a mental error than a physical one. The body language speaks of frustration, contempt, even surrender.

These are not useful things to display on the field, period. To the degree that Hunter's presence on the roster and in the lineup is justified as a role model, they're even worse. Polanco commits an error, Thompson gives up a couple of singles, and Hunter responds with a sloppy play that telegraphs: I don't care about this one anymore. That's not the example one wants set for the Byron Buxtons and Eddie Rosarios.

Again, maybe I'm reading too much into this. Errors happen. But these came on sloppy technique at a time when the specific game was going poorly, and they irritate me. One of them, OK, mistakes happen. Two of them begins to establish a pattern.