Or not adding Jamie Garcia

Reports of the Twins trading for Jamie Garcia proved to be greatly exaggerated. The Mexican lefty started Friday night in Los Angeles, allowing three runs in seven innings to the mighty Dodgers and even hitting a grand slam -- for the Braves.

The supposedly imminent deal was on the rocks by Friday morning, with the Braves said to be shopping the 31-year-old around to other clubs. I'm in no position to evaluate what went wrong, but with so many reporters -- national and local -- all reporting the same thing Thursday night, I have to assume there was fire behind that smoke.

And this presumably near-deal suggests that the Twins are indeed in the market for a rental starter, despite Thad Levine's earlier statements that the front office is focused on players who would help in 2018 and beyond. (Garcia is a free agent after this season).

A rental makes sense (properly priced, of course). The Twins need to deepen their rotation; right now the fourth and fifth starters are Kyle Gibson (6.29 ERA coming into tonight's start) and Bartolo Colon (8.18 ERA between Atlanta and Minnesota). News flash: Those ERAs are not good.

Assume for the moment that the Twins pick up a rental starter akin to Garcia. Even with Rental X joining Hector Santiago in free agency after the seasons, and even assuming that the Twins nontender Gibson, the Twins would still enter the offseason with:

• Three effective 2017 starters (Ervin Santana, Jose Berrios, Adalberto Mejia)
• Two rehab projects (Phil Hughes, Trevor May)
• Five good to reasonable prospects currently in Double A or Triple A rotations and thus presumably nearly ready (Fernando Romero, Stephen Gonsalves, Felix Jorge, Kyle Stewart, Aaron Slegers).

They'd probably like to add a veteran arm on a one-year deal to open the season. That would allow them some flexibility with the rehab projects and not be forced to rush a prospect. But that list has 10 2018 starters. They can afford to target a 2017-only addition, especially if that rental doesn't cost them Romero or Gonsalves.

Setting the table for trade speculation

Mike Pelfrey's ERA
went from 3.06 to 3.81
Monday night.

A Boston Globe piece Sunday casually listed the Twins among teams looking at potential trade candidates Jeff Samardzija (White Sox) and Clay Buchholz (Red Sox). The paragraph listed nine teams -- that's almost a third of MLB -- and didn't put any particular emphasis on any of them.

And I don't see any real reason to buy into that kind of talk. The fact is, the Twins ought not be in the market for another right-handed starter. They have too many of them as it is, This weekend Ervin Santana comes off his suspension, and then what?

So as June turns into July and the trade deadline edges ever closer, let us not be gullible -- not even after a game such as Monday's, in which the starter was bad and the lineup put up seven runs.

The Twins may well seek to add pieces in the next few weeks -- but those pieces will be position players and relievers, not starters. Indeed, it's plausible -- perhaps even wise -- that the Twins will trade away a starter in July.

Paul Molitor has started four different men at shortstop this season (Danny Santana, Eduardo Escobar, Jorge Polanco, Eduardo Nunez). He has started five different center fielders (Jordan Schafer, Shane Robinson, Aaron Hicks, Byron Buxton, Eddie Rosario). He has started five different left fielders (Oswaldo Arcia, Robinson, E
scobar, Rosario, Nunez). He's split up the DH role six ways (Kennys Vargas, Torii Hunter, Joe Mauer, Nunez, Escobar, even one start for Santana).

While I believe the lineup juggling has benefited the team, the Twins entered Monday's game just 10th in the American League in runs scored. There's only so much lemonade to squeeze out of this fruit.

To trade for a starter would be fixing a problem that doesn't exist. And I have to believe that Terry Ryan, Molitor and the rest of the decision makers know that.

Buy or sell? The latter, with reservations

Scott Diamond was the winning pitcher Thursday
for the Twins, raising his record to 5-6 —and raising
his ERA to 5.27.

The Twins on Thursday beat the Chicago White Sox to sweep the three-game series and cap off a 6-3 homestand. Their record, on the first official day of summer, stands at 33-36, and while they're fourth in the AL Central, they're just six games behind the first place Detroit Tigers.

Which led to a Phil Miller story in the Star Tribune to the effect that as the jockeying for July trades gets started, the Twins don't know if they're buyers or sellers.

For me, it's not that difficult a call. I came into this season believing it was about building something for future seasons. I still believe that.

As Aaron Gleeman pointed out Thursday on Twitter, the Twins are 10-2 against the White Sox and Milwaukee Brewers, which makes them 23-34 against everybody else. That doesn't look like a 2013 contender to me.

I'd advocate selective selling. The front office needs to determine who on the current roster fits on a 2015 contender and who's in the way of the 2014 transition to a lineup built around Joe Mauer and prospects Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and maybe Byron Buxton.

Peter Gammons has had a few Twins related comments on his Twitter feed this week: on Wednesday morning he mentioned Glen Perkins as a potential trade target for closer-starved contenders. On Thursday he followed that up with a two-parter:

GM: "Terry Ryan isn't going to trade Perkins without a big haul. They're going to be good quick. Best player in minor league ball (Buxton ) ...

Sano's already in double-A and he and Rosario are on the fast track, they've got pitching coming. Terry doesn't make mistakes."

Those observations fit my view of the Twins' situation. Certainly the major league team has some holes. But the farm system is nearly ready to crank out some primo fixes for those holes. The Twins shouldn't — and I'm sure Ryan won't — be getting in the way of that process.

Reconsidering the pitching market

Earlier this month I offered this notion: that a trade of Chris Parmelee for James Shields was a possibility.

Now I have my doubts about that's a realistic exchange.

Matthew Pouliot of Hardball Talk on Tuesday, in the context of critiquing some ESPN Insiders takes on the pending free agent crop, listed 20 teams he thought would be in the market for a $10-million-a-year starting pitcher. His list does not include the Twins.

Call it a conservative list on his part. I think the Twins payroll could handle such a pitcher -- they're shedding something in the vicinity of $18 million in starting pitcher salary at the end of the season (Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, most of Jason Marquis, a sizable share of Francisco Liriano). They certainly have the need for such a starter.

Even if you include the Twins on the list of teams looking to add a pricey pitcher, Pouliot's point remains: Lots of potential buyers with darn few pitchers to actually spend the money on. The free agent crop has Zach Greinke, with Edwin Jackson as the next best, in Pouliot's estimation.

In my estimation, Shields is a far better, and (at least in terms of salary) cheaper, pitcher than Jackson. Which means Tampa Bay is likely to have a multitude of suitors if Shields is to be auctioned off. And Parmelee may not be sufficient to land him.

It may be a difficult offseason in which to acquire established pitching talent.

One idea for a first base trade

Chris Parmelee had a big series this weekend in Kansas City,
with two home runs.

Following up on my Monday print column on the Twins' looming offseason decision about first base ...

Here's the core for a potential trade: Chris Parmelee to Tampa Bay for James Shields.

Allow me to interject here that this is solely me thinking aloud. This is not based on any sort of inside information, or even on a trade rumor. It's not necessarily something either team is thinking about -- but as I see it, it's something both teams ought to be considering.

James Shields is 12-8, 3.91 for
Tampa Bay this season

Shields, 30, is a good starting pitcher -- not the kind of guy who's on the short list for Cy Young Awards, but better than anybody the Twins now have.

Shields has won between 11 and 16 games in each of the past six seasons (including this one) while piling up innings (200-plus each season 2007-2011, with 182 so far this year) and racking up above-average strikeout rates.

But the Rays are so awash in young pitching talent that Shields may be no better than their fourth best starter (certainly behind David Price, maybe behind Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson). Plus they have Jeff Niemann, Wade Davis, and rookie Alex Cobb.

Shields is also getting more expensive than Tampa Bay is likely to retain; his contract has club options for 2013 ($9 million with a $1.5 million buyout) and 2014 ($12 million with a $1 million buyout). They're likely to try to move him this winter.

And first base has been a black hole for the Rays this season as they chase the Yankees. Carlos Pena is hitting .188/.318/.338, which wouldn't get the job done for a Gold Glove shortstop.

Parmelee would fit their mode: Young, cheap, with some positional flexibility -- and he sure looks like he can hit.

With Carl Pavano ($8.5 million), Scott Baker ($6.5 million), Jason Marquis ($3 million) and Francisco Liriano ($5.5 million) all coming off the books, the Twins could certainly absorb Shields' option for 2013, probably for 2014. And he would definitely make the Twins rotation better.

To do such a trade, of course, the Twins would probably want to secure Justin Morneau beyond 2013. If they mistrust his ability to remain healthy and productive, they probably won't want to trade Parmelee.

There may be other reasons either team would shy away from such a deal, but I don't know what they would be. Both teams would be trading from a surplus and filling a need.

Mauer and waivers

No matter how much certain talk-radio
mouths may desire it, the Twins aren't
waiving Joe Mauer good-bye.

Ken Rosenthal, who is probably the best of the baseball rumormongerers (which isn't saying much) touched off a bit of a furor with a late Tuesday night report speculating on a Joe-Mauer-to-the-Red-Sox waiver deal.

It's pure barnyard waste material. Joe Mauer isn't going anywhere. Period.

Joe Mauer has a full no-trade clause. Joe Mauer has something over $160 million left on his contract. And despite the "best" efforts of Dan Barrerio and Jim Souhan to make it so, Minnesota has not become a living hell for the St. Paul native.

Again: Joe Mauer isn't getting traded.

Rosenthal knows this, of course; he's been covering baseball a long time. He knows that everybody gets put on waivers in August. Everybody. It might mean something; it usually doesn't.

In this case, it doesn't.

Why, you may ask, would the Twins bother putting Mauer on waivers if they have no intent of acting on them? Two reasons:

• It's cover for everybody else. Nothing personal about putting you on waivers, Terry Ryan or Rob Antony can tell a player. We run everybody through waivers. Even Mauer.
• It might serve as conversation starter. Somebody calls about Mauer, and the talks can be deflected to other players.

Rosenthal, as I say, may be the best of the rumormongerers. But he's just a rumormongerer, and therefore not to be trusted.

The thinness of the shortstop market

It has been postulated here that, if the Twins do indeed trade Francisco Liriano in the next few weeks, they need to realize an immediate return, not merely a long-term one.

There are two obvious areas of uncertainty as the Twins head this week to spring training: the bullpen and the middle infield.

It makes little sense to focus on the relief corps in a Liriano trade. As has been stated here repeatedly, relief pitchers are failed starters; it makes far more sense for the Twins to restock their bullpen in the manner being employed. Nor is it logical to trade Liriano for an known relief arm; if it were, it would be just as logical to shift Liriano himself to the bullpen, and he has clearly established a greater value as a starter.

Nor are the Twins currently in need of outfielders, catchers, DHs or corner infielders, at least not to the extent that moving Liriano to address one of those spots is sensible.

No, the logical centerpiece of a Liriano trade must be a shortstop -- a longer term fix, not a J.J. Hardy one-and-done patch. (A shortstop rather than a second baseman because the odds are that Tsuyoshi Nishioka will be a second baseman in the States.)

So I spent some time this weekend browsing the new prospect books looking for major league-ready shortstops with higher ceilings and less risk than Alexi Casilla and Trevor Plouffe. And I found ... nothing.

Well, maybe not the baseball equivalent of 0 degrees Kelvin (absolute zero), but close.

John Sickles lists 11 shortstops (or shortstop-second basemen) in his top 50 position prospects. Only one of them, Dee Gordon of the Dodgers, played above A ball in 2010, and Gordon (a) led his Double A league in errors last season and (b) plays for an organization with five established starters in its major league rotation. Gordon isn't really ready yet, and the Dodgers don't really need Liriano.

The consensus best shortstop prospect in the minors is Manny Machado of the Orioles; he's 19, has all of nine minor league games on his resume, and as a 2010 draftee isn't even eligible to be traded yet.

That, while extreme, is pretty typical of the best shortstop candidates right now. They're young guys in rookie ball or A ball. Many of them will become fine major leaguers. Some will undoubtedly become stars (I think the odds are that Machado will be a better shortstop than Liriano is a starter), some will wash out completely. None of them are prepared to step directly into the major leagues, much less do so for a contender.

I just don't see any obvious trade targets worth giving up Liriano.

News judgment, or lack thereof, and the inability to read

Question No. 1: Is a trade that never happened news?

Question No. 2: Is a trade that was never even proposed news?

Question No. 3: If the answers to 1 and 2 are "yes," and the item is widely misconstrued, did reporting it do any good?

These questions are prompted by a couple of reports the past few days.

The on that cranked up the biggest, and most meaningless, furor was a Buster Olney item that said the Phillies front office had had "internal discussions" about offering St. Louis a Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols trade.

Not only did such a trade not happen, Olney doesn't even say that the Phillies broached the notion with the Cardinals. "Internal discussions" can mean (and probably does) that in a meeting aimed at plotting out budgets for future years — essential when doing long-term contracts — someday eyed the number assigned to Ryan Howard and said: Geez, for that money we ought to have Pujols. Followed by a brief discussion of how much Pujols would cost, followed by a "not gonna happen," and on to figuring out if they can afford both Doc Halladay and Cole Hamels in 2012.

Meaningless. But ESPN decided to overplay this "scoop," and Tony LaRussa acted like Tony LaRussa — meaning that he put on a performance that makes one wonder if this Hall of Fame-bound manager with a law degree is secretly functionally illiterate:

It's the media. They can be really useful and they can be really abusive. But to come up with that one is abusive. ... The person who came up with that one should be tracked down and you'd say, 'Hmmm, their credibility just took a big hit.'

Well, unless Tony LaRussa is sitting in on the Phillies front office meetings, he doesn't know what he's talking about. And if he is sitting in on those meetings, there's a bigger problem.

Then there's the New York Post item — in the context of how little faith the Yankees have in Brett Gardner — that the Yankees tried to trade for Denard Span last summer.

Well sure. The Yankees figured they needed a center fielder and leadoff hitter; they weren't going to hitch their wagon to Johnny Damon long term; so they made an offer for Span. The Twins turned them down; the Yankees ultimately made a trade with Detroit for Curtis Granderson.

The Post writer says he thought a Span for Phil Hughes trade was possible this spring. That's his thought, and now even he has tossed the notion aside.

Still, this item triggered e-mail messages and blog comments to me that took this way too seriously.

The hidden hole

There's a lot of chatter about the Twins as the trading deadline approaches. The Twins are said to be talking to Oakland about shortstop Orlando Cabrera. They're supposedly sniffing around Pittsburgh second baseman Freddy Sanchez and Toronto shortstop Marco Scutaro. The Twins' All-Stars (Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan) are demanding that something be done.

One problem: The same dearth of high-minors talent that has kept the Twins from solving their problems from within affects their trade possibilities.

This is the Twins' hidden hole. There's just not much on the farm, at least at Triple A and Double A.

Pitching? Ron Gardenhire made it clear after the news that Kevin Slowey is done for the season: Everybody throwing well in Rochester is already here.

Middle infield? The Twins' second basemen are hitting, for the season, .183. If there was somebody at Triple A they though could do better, he'd be here.

What talent is in the nigh minors is spoken for.

The best example is 3B prospect Danny Valencia (photo above). Oakland reportedly insists on Valencia in any Cabrera deal.

Valencia, ticketed to take over third base for the Twins in 2010, is tearing up Triple A. He's a five-year solution to third base, capable of adding a low-cost right-handed power bat to the Twins left-handed core.

I'm lukewarm about Cabrera — he's 34, his range is diminishing, and his contract is said to have a clause prohibiting his club from offering arbitration if he's a Type A free agent again, which seems possible. He had a lousy start but is hitting .375 this month.

Dealing Valencia for a fading shortstop would be a mistake.

There is an area in the minors in which the Twins have a surplus: toolsy outfielders. I doubt they're going to deal the likes of Ben Revere or Aaron Hicks to anybody, even if Hicks is struggling in low-A Beloit. But that still leaves the likes of Rene Tosoni, the MVP of the Futures Game, to dangle for an infielder or relief arm.

But that's not going to be enough.

In some ways, the Twins are in an advantageous position at this trading deadline. Their attendance is up; most teams are looking a slumping ticket sales. They don't want to burn all their payroll space now — not if they plan to sign Mauer to a new contract this winter, and they better have that in mind — but they can handle a salary dump.

As the Friday afternoon non-waiver deadline approaches, that may be the Twins advantage.