From the Handbook: Pitcher repertoires

This is one of my favorite and most used portions of the annual Bill James Handbook. I have generally written something annually out of this section, and almost always about Phil Hughes -- in large part because his repertoire changes so much from year to year.

Tracking it backwards:

2017: 46 percent fastballs, 21 percent cutters, 20 percent curves, 13 percent change ups.

2016: 49 percent fastballs, 26 percent cutters, 23 percent curves, 3 percent change ups.

2015: 59 percent fastballs, 20 percent cutters, 16 percent curves, 5 percent change ups.

2014: 65 percent fastballs, 21 percent cutters, 14 percent curves, less than 1 percent changeups. (This was his first year with the Twins and the best season of his career.)

2013: 62 percent fastballs, 0 percent cutters, 17 percent curves, 16 percent sliders, 5 percent change ups, less than 1 percent splitters. (With the Yankees; note the use of the slider and the absence of the cutter.)

Obviously the thoratic outlet issues -- with surgery after the 2016 season and now again -- has had something to do with this, but the fastball useage keeps declining, and the percentage of changeups reached a new high last year.

I don't know what to expect from Hughes in 2018, other than that if he's sound he's going to be on the staff. The man's signed through 2019. He might be in the bullpen, he might be in the rotation. I don't think he's going to be effective if his velocity remains below 90 mph, as it was last season. 

And I don't think he's going to be effective throwing a lot of changes, either. I always thought that Neil Allen and his change up obsession was a poor fit for Hughes as pitching coach. It will be interesting to see if Hughes backs away from the change with Allen gone -- although if the velocity is gone for good, it probably doesn't matter.

Fixing what ain't broke

I haven't the slightest notion of
what Tyler Duffey's doing here.

Ricky Nolasco was indeed named the fifth starter on Tuesday and Tyler Duffey was indeed optioned out to Rochester.

I am trying to be sanguine about this. As I've said in recent posts, the Twins (and virtually every other team) will use about eight starting pitchers in the coming season. Duffey will almost certainly be one of them even if he doesn't open the season in Minnesota.

But to the extent that Duffey lost the rotation spot that he had been penciled in for because he was trying to develop his changeup -- as opposed to, perhaps, pitching poorly as the result of his workload increase last season -- well, that's irritating because it probably wasn't necessary.

The pitching repertoire lists show Duffey as a two-pitch pitcher. The Bill James Handbook says Duffey threw 58 percent fastballs last year with the Twins, 40 percent curves, 2 percent changes. By all accounts, Duffey put the change "in his back pocket" down the stretch.

But ... he throws two fastballs and two curves, as detailed in this Fangraphs piece. (The piece was posted Tuesday just before Duffey's demotion was announced.) Duffey throws both the two-seam fastball (aka sinker) and the four-seam fastball. And he throws two distinct types of curves, with different speeds and "shapes."

That's four pitches, not two. Now, there is an oddity about the fastballs; Most two-fastball pitchers get noticeably greater velocity out of their four-seamer than from their two-seamer. Duffey says his are about the same speed. So maybe the fastballs would more accurately count as 1.5, but he clearly thinks of them as different pitches. One moves, the other does not.

Anyway, the change would be a fifth pitch, and there comes a point for any pitcher when the repertoire becomes too large.

Neil Allen, the Twins pitching coach, believes strongly in the changeup, and for most pitchers that's legitimate. Duffey himself in the Fangraphs piece sounds convinced that he'll need an effective changeup. I'm not so sure. I'm afraid the push for a change is fixing something that wasn't broken, until they broke it.