Game Seven -- Game Six also, really -- was something of an anticlimax. With the weather in Chevez Ravine back to normal, the venerable yard played normal, and the hitting was muted once Dave Roberts pulled Yu Darvish.
I've written this repeatedly over the years that I've been commenting on baseball: Baseball is a liquid; it takes the shape of its container. Dodger Stadium -- really, all the California major league parks -- is a pitcher's park, particularly for night games. It played differently for the first two games because of the heat.
So the wild comebacks that marked the first five games of the Series were absent at the end. Which is fine by me. Game Five was wild, entertaining and amazing, but I wouldn't like a daily diet of it.
---
Give credit to A.J. Hinch, the Houston manager, who devised a short-term workaround to a reality that I suspect many managers would have ignored: His season-long preferred back-of-the-bullpen options were ineffective.
Hinch closed out the Yankees in the ALCS with starter Lance McCullers Jr. working four innings in relief of Charlie Morton. He closed out Game 3 of the World Series with Brad Peacock firing 3.2 innings in relief of McCullers. And in Wednesday's finale, Morton threw four innings, again in relief of McCullers (and others).
Using starters as relievers in the postseason isn't particularly inventive. It's sticking with them in the ninth that is unusual. Neither McCullers nor Peacock had a major league save in their careers until these long outings. Nor has Morton, who was credited with the win rather than the save for his four inning stint Wednesday.
Most managers would have reflexively thanked those guys after the eighth and waved in the closer. And the way Ken Giles collapsed this month (and, really. Chris Devenski as well), that probably wouldn't have worked.
Hinch's workaround harkened to the bygone era of doubleheaders and train travel, when the schedule really didn't allow managers to use set rotations. Most teams had one or two pitchers who were strictly starters and everybody else was a swing man. That practice died out a half-century or so ago. Hinch revived it out of necessity; I can't imagine that he'd want to try it for a full season.
---
That said, I also suspect that the Astros' offseason will include a massive overhaul of their relief corps. Giles had such a miserable postseason (11.74 ERA in seven outings) that even the Astros championship won't erase the memories.
The closer era has been marked by a number of careers permanently marred by October failures, from Donnie Moore and Calvin Scharaldi to Matt Williams to Byung-Hyng Kim to Neftali Feliz. Giles may well prove to be the next addition to that list. I wouldn't be surprised if the Astros decide to trade him away even at a discount.
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#OldFriends Dept.: Francisco Liriano faced two hitters in this World Series and got them both out. Juan Centeno never got into a game and will be a pretty good trivia answer someday.
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A good, satisfying World Series between two quality teams. Only 105 days until pitchers and catchers report.
Showing posts with label World Series. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Series. Show all posts
Thursday, November 2, 2017
Monday, October 30, 2017
Grinding the bullpens to dust
What a bizarre game the Dodgers and Astros gave us Sunday night/Monday morning. Too much bizarre. Hours later, I'm still processing the idea that a matchup of Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Kuechel could require a calculator rather than a scorecard.
Neither manager came into Game Five intending to bullpen. These were -- are -- two of the top left-handed starters in baseball today. Kershaw, with the 10-season minimum served, is now a lock for Cooperstown; some (who should know better) even claim him to be the greatest pitcher ever.
But neither could get out of the fifth inning, and a month of almost frantic bullpen moves has caught up to both teams.
During the regular season, teams could -- and did -- make roster moves with impunity. Twins fans saw this a lot; Paul Molitor would be waving in five relievers on Monday, and by Tuesday's game somebody new would be in the clubhouse to freshen the 'pen.
That's not the case in October. I noted the other day that nobody worked 162 innings (the minimum to qualify for the ERA title) for the Astros this season. Well, only Kershaw did for the Dodgers, and he was well short of 200 innings.
Dave Roberts and A.J. Hinch are running the games as they did during the season. Five innings from the starter and get them out of there. But a month of this, culminated with a series pitting a pair of powerful lineups, has ground the bullpens to dust. Brandon Morrow had pitched four times in five days; Sunday made it five in six. It was too much.
I surmised a couple days ago that Brad Peacock would be unavailable until at least Game Six. But he pitched Sunday, with the Houston announcers commenting on his lower-than-usual arm slot. This is not a good sign.
But the 'Stros won anyway. They beat Kenley Jansen again -- both times in the star reliever's second inning of work -- and now have the advantage in the series, three games to two.
And they have Justin Verlander, one of the few starters who has avoided the five-and-fly mantra, set to go on full rest in Game Six. The Dodgers have Rich Hill, talented, fragile and chronically early to leave.
This World Series has always felt destined for seven games, but that destiny relied in part on the notion that neither Kershaw nor Verlander would lose. Kershaw cracked Sunday. My guess is Verlander won't. But I've certainly been wrong on this before.
Neither manager came into Game Five intending to bullpen. These were -- are -- two of the top left-handed starters in baseball today. Kershaw, with the 10-season minimum served, is now a lock for Cooperstown; some (who should know better) even claim him to be the greatest pitcher ever.
But neither could get out of the fifth inning, and a month of almost frantic bullpen moves has caught up to both teams.
During the regular season, teams could -- and did -- make roster moves with impunity. Twins fans saw this a lot; Paul Molitor would be waving in five relievers on Monday, and by Tuesday's game somebody new would be in the clubhouse to freshen the 'pen.
That's not the case in October. I noted the other day that nobody worked 162 innings (the minimum to qualify for the ERA title) for the Astros this season. Well, only Kershaw did for the Dodgers, and he was well short of 200 innings.
Dave Roberts and A.J. Hinch are running the games as they did during the season. Five innings from the starter and get them out of there. But a month of this, culminated with a series pitting a pair of powerful lineups, has ground the bullpens to dust. Brandon Morrow had pitched four times in five days; Sunday made it five in six. It was too much.
I surmised a couple days ago that Brad Peacock would be unavailable until at least Game Six. But he pitched Sunday, with the Houston announcers commenting on his lower-than-usual arm slot. This is not a good sign.
But the 'Stros won anyway. They beat Kenley Jansen again -- both times in the star reliever's second inning of work -- and now have the advantage in the series, three games to two.
And they have Justin Verlander, one of the few starters who has avoided the five-and-fly mantra, set to go on full rest in Game Six. The Dodgers have Rich Hill, talented, fragile and chronically early to leave.
This World Series has always felt destined for seven games, but that destiny relied in part on the notion that neither Kershaw nor Verlander would lose. Kershaw cracked Sunday. My guess is Verlander won't. But I've certainly been wrong on this before.
Sunday, October 29, 2017
Pic of the Week
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| Marwin Gonzalez (9) is greeted by Carlos Correa after Gonzalez tied Game 2 with a homer in the top of the ninth off Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen. |
Dick Bremer, and a lot of others, use it to describe just about any bench player. Danny Santana was a super utility player to Bremer. He plays short! He plays center! He sits on the bench a lot!
That last rules him out in my opinion. I use the term to describe somebody who
- is in the lineup on a regular basis
- but not at the same position.
Marwin Gonzalez, who hit the game-tying homer Wednesday night in the ninth inning for Houston, fits that definition perfectly.
Gonzalez led the Astros in RBIs, hit .303, slugged .530. He played 134 games and started at least a dozen games at each of five different positions -- shortstop (26 times, mostly during a Carlos Correa injury that sent the star to the disabled list), left field (23), first base (17), third base (12) and second base (12).
He can handle up-the-middle positions, but not so well that you'd be better off keeping him there. He hits well enough to fill a key lineup slot.
That's a super utility guy.
Saturday, October 28, 2017
Notes, quotes and comment (Game Three edition)
Brad Peacock had a quietly impressive season this year: 13-2, 3.00 in 132 innings, with 161 strikeouts.
And no saves, until Friday night. A.J. Hinch used him to get the final 11 outs, 53 pitches. It;s the second time in this postseason that Hinch has detoured around the back end of his bullpen with a lengthy save from a nominal part of the starting rotation.
The first, of course, was with Lance McCullers Jr. in relief of Charlie Morton in Game Seven of the ALCS. McCullers started Friday, threw 87 pitches and will presumably get the ball to start Game Seven should this series go that far. Morton starts tonight.
Peacock's outing was what I think of as "the moral equivalent of a start." Hinch can't, or at least shouldn't, use him tonight or probably even Game Five on Sunday. Tuesday, behind Justin Verlander, maybe. But even better is the possibility of a McCullers-Peacock tag team again in Game Seven.
---
Houston has an unusual set of pitching stats for a team that won 101 games in the regular season. Nobody threw more than 153 innings for Houston, and that pitcher, Mike Fiers, hasn't pitched since Sept. 13, when he was lit up for eight runs in 3.2 innings, which pushed his ERA well above 5.
The only guy on the team who qualified for the ERA title is Verlander, and he was only with the Astros in September. Nobody made 30 starts for the Astros (Fiers had the most starts, 28).
It wasn't an ineffective pitching staff, but the work was certainly spread around more than is usual on a quality team. Part of that was injuries, to be sure -- Dallas Kuechel was limited to 23 starts, and McCullers missed all of August. And part of it was the steady reduction of pitcher workloads, particularly starting pitcher workloads, in the analytic era.
---
I mentioned in the Friday post that there were a lot of "name" pitching coaches available this month. The Twins' hire, Gavin Alston, isn't a name. But a lot of the names have landed elsewhere.
Carl Willis, the "Big Train" of the 1991 Twins bullpen, went from the Red Sox back to the Cleveland Indians, where he was pitching coach more than a decade ago. That job opened because Mickey Callaway was hired by the Mets to be their manager, and Willis was available because the Red Sox told its coaches they were free to look after John Farrell was fired as manager.
As surmised here (and elsewhere), Jim Hickey, long the pitching coach in Tampa Bay for Joe Maddon, rejoined Maddon with the Cubs. As was NOT surmised here (and elsewhere), the Cubs' former PC, Chris Bosio -- who was presumably dismissed to make room for Hickey -- landed with Detroit. I daresay most of us expected Rick Anderson to return as Ron Gardenhire's PC.
And Mike Maddux, older brother of Greg, has joined the St. Louis Cardinals. He was most recently with Washington, and was on the loose after the odd decision to fire Dusty Baker.
And no saves, until Friday night. A.J. Hinch used him to get the final 11 outs, 53 pitches. It;s the second time in this postseason that Hinch has detoured around the back end of his bullpen with a lengthy save from a nominal part of the starting rotation.
The first, of course, was with Lance McCullers Jr. in relief of Charlie Morton in Game Seven of the ALCS. McCullers started Friday, threw 87 pitches and will presumably get the ball to start Game Seven should this series go that far. Morton starts tonight.
Peacock's outing was what I think of as "the moral equivalent of a start." Hinch can't, or at least shouldn't, use him tonight or probably even Game Five on Sunday. Tuesday, behind Justin Verlander, maybe. But even better is the possibility of a McCullers-Peacock tag team again in Game Seven.
---
Houston has an unusual set of pitching stats for a team that won 101 games in the regular season. Nobody threw more than 153 innings for Houston, and that pitcher, Mike Fiers, hasn't pitched since Sept. 13, when he was lit up for eight runs in 3.2 innings, which pushed his ERA well above 5.
The only guy on the team who qualified for the ERA title is Verlander, and he was only with the Astros in September. Nobody made 30 starts for the Astros (Fiers had the most starts, 28).
It wasn't an ineffective pitching staff, but the work was certainly spread around more than is usual on a quality team. Part of that was injuries, to be sure -- Dallas Kuechel was limited to 23 starts, and McCullers missed all of August. And part of it was the steady reduction of pitcher workloads, particularly starting pitcher workloads, in the analytic era.
---
I mentioned in the Friday post that there were a lot of "name" pitching coaches available this month. The Twins' hire, Gavin Alston, isn't a name. But a lot of the names have landed elsewhere.
Carl Willis, the "Big Train" of the 1991 Twins bullpen, went from the Red Sox back to the Cleveland Indians, where he was pitching coach more than a decade ago. That job opened because Mickey Callaway was hired by the Mets to be their manager, and Willis was available because the Red Sox told its coaches they were free to look after John Farrell was fired as manager.
As surmised here (and elsewhere), Jim Hickey, long the pitching coach in Tampa Bay for Joe Maddon, rejoined Maddon with the Cubs. As was NOT surmised here (and elsewhere), the Cubs' former PC, Chris Bosio -- who was presumably dismissed to make room for Hickey -- landed with Detroit. I daresay most of us expected Rick Anderson to return as Ron Gardenhire's PC.
And Mike Maddux, older brother of Greg, has joined the St. Louis Cardinals. He was most recently with Washington, and was on the loose after the odd decision to fire Dusty Baker.
Thursday, October 26, 2017
Notes, quotes and comment (Game Two edition)
A taut pitchers duel Wednesday turned into home run derby late, and the winning team may well feel a bit worse about itself afterwards than it did before the game.
The bullpen was certainly not a weakness for the Houston Astros during their 101-win regular season, but A.J. Hinch certainly cannot feel confident in his relief staff right now. Closer Ken Giles and All-Star setup man Chris Devenski had difficulty closing out the Dodgers in Game Two, and those struggles have precedent. Devenski has pitched so far this postseason to a 8.44 ERA, Giles to an 8.22 ERA.
Hinch found a way around those struggles at the end of the ALCS -- using Lance McCullers, starter, for four innings of relief work in Game 7. It's likely that the rotation shift the Astros announced before Game Two -- McCullers will start Game Three on Friday, with Charlie Morton pushed back to Saturday -- was designed to make it possible to bring McCullers back in a Game Seven or even Game Six in relief.
But for that to matter the Astros need to get that far. And Hinch has only one Justin Verlander in his rotation. He needs his bullpen to do a better job.
---
Each team has a starting pitcher who will presumably spend his 50s and 60s (and probably part of his 40s) going to Cooperstown one weekend each summer to sit on the veranda of the Otesaga Hotel swapping stories with other legends of the game.
It's a plauable assertion that the starts of Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and Justin Verlander for the Astros are must-win games for their respective teams. Lose one of their starts, and the series gets much more difficult.
In that sense, each team got the minimum they needed out of the first two games.
---
The Astros have two former Twins on their active roster for the Series: Francisco Liriano, the sole lefty in their bullpen, and catcher Juan Centeno.
Liriano came in a deadline deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. He was a struggling starter with Toronto (6-5, 5.88 in 18 starts) and he's been a struggling reliever for the Astros (4.40 in 14.1 innings spread over 20 appearances). Most striking to me in his stat line with the Astros: 10 walks to 11 strikeouts.
Centeno got just 57 major league plate appearances this season (and more than 250 in Triple A). His primary purpose, presumably, is as a security blanket that will allow Hinch to deploy Evan Gattis as the designated hitter in the three Houston games.
The bullpen was certainly not a weakness for the Houston Astros during their 101-win regular season, but A.J. Hinch certainly cannot feel confident in his relief staff right now. Closer Ken Giles and All-Star setup man Chris Devenski had difficulty closing out the Dodgers in Game Two, and those struggles have precedent. Devenski has pitched so far this postseason to a 8.44 ERA, Giles to an 8.22 ERA.
Hinch found a way around those struggles at the end of the ALCS -- using Lance McCullers, starter, for four innings of relief work in Game 7. It's likely that the rotation shift the Astros announced before Game Two -- McCullers will start Game Three on Friday, with Charlie Morton pushed back to Saturday -- was designed to make it possible to bring McCullers back in a Game Seven or even Game Six in relief.
But for that to matter the Astros need to get that far. And Hinch has only one Justin Verlander in his rotation. He needs his bullpen to do a better job.
---
Each team has a starting pitcher who will presumably spend his 50s and 60s (and probably part of his 40s) going to Cooperstown one weekend each summer to sit on the veranda of the Otesaga Hotel swapping stories with other legends of the game.
It's a plauable assertion that the starts of Clayton Kershaw for the Dodgers and Justin Verlander for the Astros are must-win games for their respective teams. Lose one of their starts, and the series gets much more difficult.
In that sense, each team got the minimum they needed out of the first two games.
---
The Astros have two former Twins on their active roster for the Series: Francisco Liriano, the sole lefty in their bullpen, and catcher Juan Centeno.
Liriano came in a deadline deal with the Toronto Blue Jays. He was a struggling starter with Toronto (6-5, 5.88 in 18 starts) and he's been a struggling reliever for the Astros (4.40 in 14.1 innings spread over 20 appearances). Most striking to me in his stat line with the Astros: 10 walks to 11 strikeouts.
Centeno got just 57 major league plate appearances this season (and more than 250 in Triple A). His primary purpose, presumably, is as a security blanket that will allow Hinch to deploy Evan Gattis as the designated hitter in the three Houston games.
Wednesday, October 25, 2017
Notes quotes and comment (Game One edition)
Stop me if you've heard this: Clayton Kershaw is a really good pitcher.
OK, you've stopped me.
---
When I'm working during World Series games, I have the TV on around the corner but the sound off and my iPad with the MLB At Bat app up with one of the team's radio feeds playing. It's a bit behind the TV, but that's OK.
Last night I went with the LA radio broadcast, Charley Steiner and Rick Monday. I frequently see complaints about Steiner, which I think boil down to He's not Vin Scully. Well, who is? But Vin is retired now, and we really should let the man enjoy his retirement. Steiner is more than competent. I may try the Houston feed tonight.
I did mutter about one thing Steiner said, in wrapping up the game. He called Kershaw's performance "flawless." Well no. He did give up a homer, after all. That's a flaw. It was very good: three hits, no walks, 11 strikeouts in seven innings. Pitchers don't lose often with that line. But sometimes they do.
---
As a Mankatoan, I feel compelled to note that Curtis Granderson, the greatest of the Mankato Mashers, was left off the World Series roster by the Dodgers. The Grandy Man hit .161 for the Dodgers after his midseason trade from the Mets. Even with the occasional long ball tossed in, that's not good enough.
The Dodgers instead went with Brandon McCarthy, an oft-injured pticher who only figures to draw mop up duties if anything in the series. Ideally, the Dodgers will never even have him warm up.
OK, you've stopped me.
---
When I'm working during World Series games, I have the TV on around the corner but the sound off and my iPad with the MLB At Bat app up with one of the team's radio feeds playing. It's a bit behind the TV, but that's OK.
Last night I went with the LA radio broadcast, Charley Steiner and Rick Monday. I frequently see complaints about Steiner, which I think boil down to He's not Vin Scully. Well, who is? But Vin is retired now, and we really should let the man enjoy his retirement. Steiner is more than competent. I may try the Houston feed tonight.
I did mutter about one thing Steiner said, in wrapping up the game. He called Kershaw's performance "flawless." Well no. He did give up a homer, after all. That's a flaw. It was very good: three hits, no walks, 11 strikeouts in seven innings. Pitchers don't lose often with that line. But sometimes they do.
---
As a Mankatoan, I feel compelled to note that Curtis Granderson, the greatest of the Mankato Mashers, was left off the World Series roster by the Dodgers. The Grandy Man hit .161 for the Dodgers after his midseason trade from the Mets. Even with the occasional long ball tossed in, that's not good enough.
The Dodgers instead went with Brandon McCarthy, an oft-injured pticher who only figures to draw mop up duties if anything in the series. Ideally, the Dodgers will never even have him warm up.
Monday, October 23, 2017
A quality World Series pairing
It's been a long time since the World Series paired a pair of 100-win teams -- 1970, I believe, in which the Baltimore Orioles (108 wins) beat the Cincinnati Reds (102) in five games as Brooks Robinson created the highlight reel that informs today's memories of his career.
Divisions and wild cards have created a multi-tiered postseason that -- my frequent complaint/observation repeats here -- devalues the regular season. It is more difficult for a truly great team to make it to the World Series today.
So praise to the Dodgers and Astros, each of whom were sufficiently dominant in the regular season to hit the century mark in wins and survived two post season series.
Who wins? I assume the Dodgers are favored, not that that matters much. I'm rooting for the Astros, to the extent that I can find a rooting interest here. Certainly I'll be cheering for the baseball.
Here are three things that may decide this series:
Lefty-righty. The Dodgers starters are heavily left-handed. Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood have been named to start Games 1, 2 and 4 respectively. Only Yu Darvish (Game 3) is right-handed.
The best hitters in the Houston lineup -- Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez -- are right-handed. The platoon differential favors Houston when they hit.
In relief we (mis)trust: The L.A. bullpen has been more reliable this month than Houston's. It certainly didn't escape notice that the Astros largely bypassed its season-long relief corps in Games 6 and 7 against the Yankees and took five innings from repurposed starters instead in a pair of elimination games. If A.J. Hinch can't get better work from the likes of Luke Gregorson and Chris Devenski in this series, it's going to be difficult to beat the Dodgers.
Seager's back: Corey Seager, the Dodger shortstop, is their best player. He also sat out the NLCS against the Cubs with a back problem, and his absence was hardly noticed.
As of Sunday, Seager was expected to be on the World Series roster. If he's his usual self, that improves the Dodger lineup. If he's not up to speed, it may hamper them.
Divisions and wild cards have created a multi-tiered postseason that -- my frequent complaint/observation repeats here -- devalues the regular season. It is more difficult for a truly great team to make it to the World Series today.
So praise to the Dodgers and Astros, each of whom were sufficiently dominant in the regular season to hit the century mark in wins and survived two post season series.
Who wins? I assume the Dodgers are favored, not that that matters much. I'm rooting for the Astros, to the extent that I can find a rooting interest here. Certainly I'll be cheering for the baseball.
Here are three things that may decide this series:
Lefty-righty. The Dodgers starters are heavily left-handed. Clayton Kershaw, Rich Hill and Alex Wood have been named to start Games 1, 2 and 4 respectively. Only Yu Darvish (Game 3) is right-handed.
The best hitters in the Houston lineup -- Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Marwin Gonzalez -- are right-handed. The platoon differential favors Houston when they hit.
In relief we (mis)trust: The L.A. bullpen has been more reliable this month than Houston's. It certainly didn't escape notice that the Astros largely bypassed its season-long relief corps in Games 6 and 7 against the Yankees and took five innings from repurposed starters instead in a pair of elimination games. If A.J. Hinch can't get better work from the likes of Luke Gregorson and Chris Devenski in this series, it's going to be difficult to beat the Dodgers.
Seager's back: Corey Seager, the Dodger shortstop, is their best player. He also sat out the NLCS against the Cubs with a back problem, and his absence was hardly noticed.
As of Sunday, Seager was expected to be on the World Series roster. If he's his usual self, that improves the Dodger lineup. If he's not up to speed, it may hamper them.
Thursday, November 3, 2016
On to the offseason
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| Meeting at the mound. |
Until the final out was actually recorded, I half-believed that the game was going to continue, and continue, and continue, that the kids who were put to bed hours earlier would get up to find the Cubs and Indians still locked in this stuggle.
And then Michael Martinez, probably the weakest hitter (excluding pitchers) on either roster, hit a weak grounder to third, and it was over.
It was an outstanding World Series. It was a great Game Seven. And we're going to get throughly sick of the Chicago Cubs in a few years. They're the new shiny thing now, but -- unlike, say, the 2015 Royals -- they're built for years and have the resources to keep it that way.
And now the Twins can get Derek Falvey officially on board, and get going with their offseason.
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Pic of the Week
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| The scene outside Wrigley Field before Friday night's World Series game. |
So much so that Wrigleyville bars were levying $100 cover charges Friday.
Monday, October 24, 2016
On to the World Series
You already know that this World Series pits the two longest title droughts in baseball against each other. Cleveland last won baseball's championship in 1948, the Cubs in 1908.
It also -- and this doesn't happen often in this era of wild cards and multi-level playoffs -- pits the best teams from each league. (True, Cleveland didn't have the best record in the American League, but the Texas Rangers' record benefited from the unbalanced schedule and the soft AL West.)
The Cubs for a while this season looked like they could be an historic team. But they had a relatively soft June and wound up with "only" 103 wins, not the 110 or so that seemed possible in the first two months of the season.
And they are, pretty clearly, the better team of the two. Which doesn't mean they'll win. Weaker teams regularly win short series in baseball.
And there's an obvious path for the Tribe to take this series, the same path they took past the Red Sox and the Blue Jays in the first two rounds: Get the lead in the early innings and rely on that marvelous bullpen.
I didn't think Terry Francona had enough healthy, effective starters to get to the bullpen in the ALDS or ALCS; I was wrong, I don't think he has enough healthy, effective starters to get to the bullpen in this series either; I may be wrong.
I'm picking the Cubs, And, as often happens, I'm rooting the other direction.
It also -- and this doesn't happen often in this era of wild cards and multi-level playoffs -- pits the best teams from each league. (True, Cleveland didn't have the best record in the American League, but the Texas Rangers' record benefited from the unbalanced schedule and the soft AL West.)
The Cubs for a while this season looked like they could be an historic team. But they had a relatively soft June and wound up with "only" 103 wins, not the 110 or so that seemed possible in the first two months of the season.
And they are, pretty clearly, the better team of the two. Which doesn't mean they'll win. Weaker teams regularly win short series in baseball.
And there's an obvious path for the Tribe to take this series, the same path they took past the Red Sox and the Blue Jays in the first two rounds: Get the lead in the early innings and rely on that marvelous bullpen.
I didn't think Terry Francona had enough healthy, effective starters to get to the bullpen in the ALDS or ALCS; I was wrong, I don't think he has enough healthy, effective starters to get to the bullpen in this series either; I may be wrong.
I'm picking the Cubs, And, as often happens, I'm rooting the other direction.
Monday, November 2, 2015
The Royals are champions
 | ||||
| That's former Twins catcher Drew Butera celebrating the last out of the World Series. He caught the last inning after Salvador Perez was pulled for a pinch running during the Royals' five-run 12th inning. |
It wasn't a bad series for a five-gamer. Two of the games went multiple extra innings, and the Mets had late leads in three of their four losses. Poor Jeurys Familia wound up charged with three blown saves, although in two of them he inherited the jam and he didn't allow a baserunner in Sunday's blown save.
I spent most of the Series listening to either the Mets or Royals radio feeds via the MLB At Bat app. It didn't synch up with the TV broadcast all that well, but I also didn't have to listen to Harold Reynolds. Anyway, there was an ad running frequently on the KC feed that said This is the greatest time to be a Royals fan.
Maybe. The George Brett era was pretty darn good. Brett, plus Amos Otis, Hal McRae, Frank White, Dan Quisenberry, Willie Wilson ... They dominated the old AL West for a full decade and went to two World Series, winning one. It wouldn't have taken a lot for them to have gotten to more Series; they just fell short in the playoffs a number of times.
These Royals have done something the Brett-era Royals didn't: They've gone to two Series in a row. How much staying power this model has remains to be seen. Alex Gordon, who I believe is their best player even if Ned Yost hits him eighth, will be a free agent this winter, and some other key components will start approaching that status in the next few years. Keeping the band together is not going to be easy.
But that's for the future. The players and their fans can celebrate now. And they will.
Sunday, November 1, 2015
Pic of the Week
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| A boy outside Citi Field before Saturday's Game Four catches a ball. |
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Hitting to contact
Wednesday's Game Two was prototypical Kansas City Royals, a game that demonstrated that they are fully capable of winning the series' battle of strengths.
The Mets have a rotation full of high-velocity pitchers who miss bats. The Royals have a lineup full of hitters who feast on velocity and don't swing and miss.
Wednesday was a case in point. Jake deGrom, the Mets starter, hit 98 on the radar guns. But even as he held the Royals scoreless for the first four innings, he induced just one swing and miss. The fifth inning saw Kansas City score four runs as the Royals peppered the Kaufmann Stadium outfield with base hits. DeGrom got only three swings-and-misses in his five innings, 2.3 percent of his pitches, the lowest rate of his career.
Now, this series is hardly over. As I said a couple of days ago, the Royals are well-constructed for their park. The next two or three games will be in Citi Field, and they lose the DH for those games, which presumably takes out their cleanup hitter, Kendrys Morales. (The alternative is to sit Eric Hosmer, their No.3 hitter and Gold Glove first baseman, and I don't see that happening.)
But so far the Series has played out the way I expected. The Royals are better in the field, they're better in the bullpen, and their lineup can handle the Mets starters.
The Mets have a rotation full of high-velocity pitchers who miss bats. The Royals have a lineup full of hitters who feast on velocity and don't swing and miss.
Wednesday was a case in point. Jake deGrom, the Mets starter, hit 98 on the radar guns. But even as he held the Royals scoreless for the first four innings, he induced just one swing and miss. The fifth inning saw Kansas City score four runs as the Royals peppered the Kaufmann Stadium outfield with base hits. DeGrom got only three swings-and-misses in his five innings, 2.3 percent of his pitches, the lowest rate of his career.
Now, this series is hardly over. As I said a couple of days ago, the Royals are well-constructed for their park. The next two or three games will be in Citi Field, and they lose the DH for those games, which presumably takes out their cleanup hitter, Kendrys Morales. (The alternative is to sit Eric Hosmer, their No.3 hitter and Gold Glove first baseman, and I don't see that happening.)
But so far the Series has played out the way I expected. The Royals are better in the field, they're better in the bullpen, and their lineup can handle the Mets starters.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Precedent for bereaved World Series pitchers
Edinson Volquez started Game One on Tuesday for Kansas City, with ESPN reporting that he had learned on his way to the ballpark that his father had died earlier in the day in the Dominican and the Royals saying that he was unaware. Manager Ned Yost told reporters after the game that Volquez' family had asked that he not be told until after he had pitched.
There is precedent in baseball history for World Series pitchers to take the ball in the immediate wake of their fathers' death.
In 1940, the colorful Louis Norman Newsom -- better known as Bobo or Buck -- went 21-5, 2,83 for the Detroit Tigers. He started Game One in Cincinnati and beat the Reds, 7-2. His father, who was in attendance, had a heart attack after the game and died the next morning. The rest of the family accompanied the body home; Bobo remained with the team and threw an 8-0 shutout in Game Five. The rubber-armed Newsom then started Game Seven on one day's rest but lost 2-1. (A reporter supposedly asked the braggadocious Newsom if he was going to pitch Game Seven for his father; Newsom s reply was, "No, I'm going to pitch this one for Bobo.")
Two years later, in 1942, Mort Cooper went 22-7 for the St. Louis Cardinals, leading the league in wins, ERA and shutouts en route to winning the MVP award. Manager Billy Southworth elected to have Max Lanier pitch Game One, with Cooper working Game Two. Hours before that game, Cooper learned that his father had died. He and brother Walker, the Cardinals catcher, played anyway and remained with the team until the Series ended; Cooper won Game Two 4-3 with a complete game and was the starter and loser (2-0) in the series' Game Five finale.
It's unclear as I write this what Volquez will do -- go immediately to the Dominican or stay with the team (he is presumably their Game Five starter). I won't think badly of either decision, and I doubt any of his teammates would either.
There is precedent in baseball history for World Series pitchers to take the ball in the immediate wake of their fathers' death.
In 1940, the colorful Louis Norman Newsom -- better known as Bobo or Buck -- went 21-5, 2,83 for the Detroit Tigers. He started Game One in Cincinnati and beat the Reds, 7-2. His father, who was in attendance, had a heart attack after the game and died the next morning. The rest of the family accompanied the body home; Bobo remained with the team and threw an 8-0 shutout in Game Five. The rubber-armed Newsom then started Game Seven on one day's rest but lost 2-1. (A reporter supposedly asked the braggadocious Newsom if he was going to pitch Game Seven for his father; Newsom s reply was, "No, I'm going to pitch this one for Bobo.")
Two years later, in 1942, Mort Cooper went 22-7 for the St. Louis Cardinals, leading the league in wins, ERA and shutouts en route to winning the MVP award. Manager Billy Southworth elected to have Max Lanier pitch Game One, with Cooper working Game Two. Hours before that game, Cooper learned that his father had died. He and brother Walker, the Cardinals catcher, played anyway and remained with the team until the Series ended; Cooper won Game Two 4-3 with a complete game and was the starter and loser (2-0) in the series' Game Five finale.
It's unclear as I write this what Volquez will do -- go immediately to the Dominican or stay with the team (he is presumably their Game Five starter). I won't think badly of either decision, and I doubt any of his teammates would either.
Tuesday, October 27, 2015
A meaningless World Series prediction
The World Series gets started today, at long last.
It's an interesting matchup.
The Royals had the best record (95-67) in a very even American League; they have an outstanding defense, a superlative bullpen even with Greg Holland injured, and a lineup well made for its power-suppressing home grounds. Their flaws: The rotation is below average and they don't hit many homers -- and their best power hitter, designated hitter Kendrys Morales, will probably be out of the lineup in the games at New York.
The Mets' (90-72) strengths: A rotation stacked with power arms. Their lineup, which was awful in the first half, improved sharply in the second half, largely because the on-base percentages increased.They have more power than the Royals, with seven hitters in double-digits for homers. Their flaws: their middle infield is shaky defensively and they're not particularly fast.
I appreciate the point Pedro Martinez made on TBS at the end of the NL series: The Mets have beaten better starting pitchers this month than the Royals have to offer. They've beaten Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. But I'm still taking the Royals. Three points:
It's an interesting matchup.
The Royals had the best record (95-67) in a very even American League; they have an outstanding defense, a superlative bullpen even with Greg Holland injured, and a lineup well made for its power-suppressing home grounds. Their flaws: The rotation is below average and they don't hit many homers -- and their best power hitter, designated hitter Kendrys Morales, will probably be out of the lineup in the games at New York.
The Mets' (90-72) strengths: A rotation stacked with power arms. Their lineup, which was awful in the first half, improved sharply in the second half, largely because the on-base percentages increased.They have more power than the Royals, with seven hitters in double-digits for homers. Their flaws: their middle infield is shaky defensively and they're not particularly fast.
I appreciate the point Pedro Martinez made on TBS at the end of the NL series: The Mets have beaten better starting pitchers this month than the Royals have to offer. They've beaten Clayton Kershaw, Zach Greinke, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta. But I'm still taking the Royals. Three points:
- The Royals feast on fastballs. They hit .284 this year when swinging at fastballs 95 mph or higher. The Cubs were trying to jack everything into the seats against the Mets velocity; the Royals will take their singles and doubles.
- A lot of the Mets offense this month came off the bat of Daniel Murphy. He's not that good, and this will not continue.
- The Mets power will be negated in Kaufmann Stadium.
Royals in six.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
A Giant accomplishment
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| Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner celebrate the final out Wednesday night. |
This makes three World Series titles for the Jints in five seasons, and while I don't think they're a great team, they've had a knack for finding the right people for the right roles in October in even-numbered years.
This year it was Bumgarner, the lefty slinger who stopped the Royals pretty much dead in two starts, then gave manager Bruce Bochy five shutout innings of relief in Game Seven.
We can wonder why Kansas City skipper Ned Yost never let Josh Willingham out of the dugout against Bumgarner -- the purpose of having the Hammer on the roster was to hit lefties, after all. We can wonder what would have happened had Alex Gordon run out of the box on his ninth inning hit that Gregor Blanco and Juan Perez misplayed into three bases. Might he have scored? We can wonder why Yost had Alcides Escobar bunt on an 2-0 count in the fifth inning after Bumgarner opened his outing by allowing a base hit. Giving Bumgarner a free out there certainly didn't hurt him.
We can wonder and what-if, but what happened happened, and what happened was the Giants winning the title.
One aspect of the Giants' staggered string of championships -- 2010, 2012, 2014 -- is how few pieces have been consistent from title to title. Buster Posey behind the plate, certainly. Bumgarner in the rotation -- although in 2010 he was in the back of the rotation and now he's in the front. Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and Javy Lopez in the bullpen, although the first two have changed roles repeatedly and the latter two are essentially lefty specialists.
The Giants have had three different center fielders for their World Series runs, and three different second basemen. Twice, in fact, the Giants changed second basemen in midseason and went on to win the title. Pablo Sandoval sat for most of the 2010 World Series and hit cleanup in 2014. Tim Lincecum was a rotation mainstay in 2010, a useful reliever in the 2012 postseason, an afterthought this year.
What we have in the Giants, then, is a multiple-time champion that has had to retool on the fly, each champion sharply different than the one that preceded it. This is rare. Baseball history is filled with dynasties (or at least pretenders to such status) that relied on the same core. Few have had to rework the puzzle as completely as these Giants have. Casey Stengel's Yankees, perhaps. It's no small accomplishment.
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
A different kind of close series
The 2014 postseason, at least up to the World Series, had been marked by extremely close games but one-sided series.
The World Series, on the other hand, has been the opposite. Only one of the first six games have been close (Game Three, won by the Royals 3-2). Yet the series is going to a Game Seven.
Close games, even in a series that ends quickly, are more entertaining than a string of non-competitive ones with alternating victors. But today's winner-take-all finale has a chance to be memorable enough to carry the Series.
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So what should we expect tonight?
Kansas City will start veteran right-hander Jeremy Guthrie. He's 35 and averages more than 200 innings a year (or has over the past six seasons). That's his strong suit -- he's a durable back-of-the-rotation guy who makes 30-plus starts a year. He's also the least talented of the five Royals starters. (Danny Duffy might be the best starter on the team, but the 25-year-old lefty had a late injury and struggled in September after coming off the DL, and he has been left out of the postseason rotation.)
San Francisco will start veteran right-hander Tim Hudson. He's 39 and has at least a borderline Hall of Fame case. He also hasn't gotten a win since August.
I will be surprised if either starter lasts past the fourth inning. The key, should Hudson in particular falter, is how much the Giants can get out of ace starter Madison Bumgarner in relief on two days rest. The Royals can splutter against lefties, but San Francisco's lefty relievers are not multi-inning guys.
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Looking at Guthrie's career: He has led the league in losses twice, hits allowed once, home runs allowed once and HBP once. He has never led the league in a good category.
Hudson has also once led the league in HBP. He has also led in wins once, winning percentage once, games started once, shutouts twice and lowest HR per nine innings once. All those positives, however, came at least 10 years ago.
Hudson is a four-time All-Star and has four times gotten Cy Young votes. Guthrie has never gotten any such recognition.
I think they're pretty similar pitchers right now, however. And they'll be on short leashes tonight.
The World Series, on the other hand, has been the opposite. Only one of the first six games have been close (Game Three, won by the Royals 3-2). Yet the series is going to a Game Seven.
Close games, even in a series that ends quickly, are more entertaining than a string of non-competitive ones with alternating victors. But today's winner-take-all finale has a chance to be memorable enough to carry the Series.
---
So what should we expect tonight?
Kansas City will start veteran right-hander Jeremy Guthrie. He's 35 and averages more than 200 innings a year (or has over the past six seasons). That's his strong suit -- he's a durable back-of-the-rotation guy who makes 30-plus starts a year. He's also the least talented of the five Royals starters. (Danny Duffy might be the best starter on the team, but the 25-year-old lefty had a late injury and struggled in September after coming off the DL, and he has been left out of the postseason rotation.)
San Francisco will start veteran right-hander Tim Hudson. He's 39 and has at least a borderline Hall of Fame case. He also hasn't gotten a win since August.
I will be surprised if either starter lasts past the fourth inning. The key, should Hudson in particular falter, is how much the Giants can get out of ace starter Madison Bumgarner in relief on two days rest. The Royals can splutter against lefties, but San Francisco's lefty relievers are not multi-inning guys.
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Looking at Guthrie's career: He has led the league in losses twice, hits allowed once, home runs allowed once and HBP once. He has never led the league in a good category.
Hudson has also once led the league in HBP. He has also led in wins once, winning percentage once, games started once, shutouts twice and lowest HR per nine innings once. All those positives, however, came at least 10 years ago.
Hudson is a four-time All-Star and has four times gotten Cy Young votes. Guthrie has never gotten any such recognition.
I think they're pretty similar pitchers right now, however. And they'll be on short leashes tonight.
Wednesday, October 22, 2014
Weakest Series winners
Kansas City won 89 regular season games, seventh most in the majors. San Francisco won 88, tying with Oakland for eighth. Neither won its division title. But one of them will win the World Series.
Which prompted me to wonder: What was the weakest World Series champ?
I'll base this on the teams relative to their time. I am quite certain that baseball today is played at a higher level than in the past. It's certainly played differently.
And this list will be heavy with relatively recent teams. It has to be, because for generations, the World Series always pitted the teams with the best records in their respective leagues. That hasn't been guaranteed since 1968, and as the playoff entrants have inflated, the chances of a team with a lesser record winning has increased.
So I start with the 1959 Los Angeles Dodgers, who somehow won the National League pennant with 88 wins, a total they reached only because they had to win a best-of-three series with the Milwaukee Braves after they finished the 154-game schedule of the time with 86 wins apiece, an absurdly low total for a pennant winner. The Dodgers were probably only the third best squad in the league, but they prevailed.
It's an odd team, with three 30-something holdovers from the great Boys of Summer team in the lineup and a few pieces of the almost-as-good 1960s teams, It was a bit late for the Brooklyn holdovers and a bit early for the next generation,
(I am fascinated by their shortstop situation. Don Zimmer is listed as the regular; he hit .165. Maury Wills got almost as much playing time; he had an OPB of .298 and a SLG of .298, which is a tough trick to pull. Three years later, Wills would win the MVP award, but you sure couldn't see that coming in his rookie year.)
Next up, a team close to my heart: the 1987 Minnesota Twins, winners of 85 regular season games and outscored for the season. Four American League teams had better records than the Twins, but they were all in the other division.
They are quickly followed by the 1988 Los Angeles Dodgers, who won 94 games although it's hard to see how. Orel Hershiser was great, Kirk Gibson won the MVP, and Tim Leary and Tim Belcher gave them two more sub-3.00 ERAs in the rotation. There's not much else there. But they beat a 100-win Mets team in the playoffs and a 104-win Oakland team in the Series.
Once we get into the wild card era, the chances for mediocre records to win it all multiply. The 2000 Yankees only won 87 regular season games, but I'm inclined to cut them some slack because 2000 is the Yankes' third straight World Series win.
The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won just 83 regular season games, which is hard to figure. They'd won 100 the year before, 105 the year before that. Winning in '06 is something of a make-up for not winning the previous years with better teams. Still, 83 wins is the all-time low for a World Series winner, and I sure hope we never have a champ with less.
I'm never going to be all that impressed by the credentials of any wild card team, even though we've seen a number of them win (the Marlins in '97 and '03, the Red Sox on '04, Cardinals in '11). We'll have another one soon. But I don't think either is as unlikely a champion as the four teams linked to above.
My choice as the weakest Series champ? I'll take the 1987 Twins, and say it's better to be the weakest team to win the World Series than the strongest team that didn't.
Which prompted me to wonder: What was the weakest World Series champ?
I'll base this on the teams relative to their time. I am quite certain that baseball today is played at a higher level than in the past. It's certainly played differently.
And this list will be heavy with relatively recent teams. It has to be, because for generations, the World Series always pitted the teams with the best records in their respective leagues. That hasn't been guaranteed since 1968, and as the playoff entrants have inflated, the chances of a team with a lesser record winning has increased.
So I start with the 1959 Los Angeles Dodgers, who somehow won the National League pennant with 88 wins, a total they reached only because they had to win a best-of-three series with the Milwaukee Braves after they finished the 154-game schedule of the time with 86 wins apiece, an absurdly low total for a pennant winner. The Dodgers were probably only the third best squad in the league, but they prevailed.
It's an odd team, with three 30-something holdovers from the great Boys of Summer team in the lineup and a few pieces of the almost-as-good 1960s teams, It was a bit late for the Brooklyn holdovers and a bit early for the next generation,
(I am fascinated by their shortstop situation. Don Zimmer is listed as the regular; he hit .165. Maury Wills got almost as much playing time; he had an OPB of .298 and a SLG of .298, which is a tough trick to pull. Three years later, Wills would win the MVP award, but you sure couldn't see that coming in his rookie year.)
Next up, a team close to my heart: the 1987 Minnesota Twins, winners of 85 regular season games and outscored for the season. Four American League teams had better records than the Twins, but they were all in the other division.
They are quickly followed by the 1988 Los Angeles Dodgers, who won 94 games although it's hard to see how. Orel Hershiser was great, Kirk Gibson won the MVP, and Tim Leary and Tim Belcher gave them two more sub-3.00 ERAs in the rotation. There's not much else there. But they beat a 100-win Mets team in the playoffs and a 104-win Oakland team in the Series.
Once we get into the wild card era, the chances for mediocre records to win it all multiply. The 2000 Yankees only won 87 regular season games, but I'm inclined to cut them some slack because 2000 is the Yankes' third straight World Series win.
The 2006 St. Louis Cardinals won just 83 regular season games, which is hard to figure. They'd won 100 the year before, 105 the year before that. Winning in '06 is something of a make-up for not winning the previous years with better teams. Still, 83 wins is the all-time low for a World Series winner, and I sure hope we never have a champ with less.
I'm never going to be all that impressed by the credentials of any wild card team, even though we've seen a number of them win (the Marlins in '97 and '03, the Red Sox on '04, Cardinals in '11). We'll have another one soon. But I don't think either is as unlikely a champion as the four teams linked to above.
My choice as the weakest Series champ? I'll take the 1987 Twins, and say it's better to be the weakest team to win the World Series than the strongest team that didn't.
Tuesday, October 21, 2014
Managerial search news and a World Series prediction
Word Monday was that the field of candidates for the Twins managerial job was narrowing.
If so, the known candidates are down to the three insiders (Gene Glynn, Doug Mientkiewicz and Paul Molitor) and one outsider (Torey Lovullo of the Boston Red Sox).
Other Twitter reports of note:
I'm still rooting for Mientkiewicz to get the job, but these reports hint that Molitor's going to get the job.
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It's been easy to forget over the course of the long layoff, but the World Series starts tonight.
I expect this series to ultimately boil down to the power arms of the Kansas City bullpen versus the fastball-hitting middle of the San Francisco lineup. How good are the Giants against high velocity?
Yeah, they're that good.
I frequently see a series like this as turning on a strength vs. a weakness. In this case, I see a strength versus a strength. That's harder to call. I'll take the Royals in this matchup, but I'm not particularly comfortable with that call.
SOURCE: Sandy Alomar Jr. has been told he's OUT. Reported last week same on McEwing. Toronto Sun reports Demarlo Hale out too. #mntwins
— Darren Wolfson (@DarrenWolfson) October 21, 2014
If so, the known candidates are down to the three insiders (Gene Glynn, Doug Mientkiewicz and Paul Molitor) and one outsider (Torey Lovullo of the Boston Red Sox).
Other Twitter reports of note:
@MikeBerardino And #orioles bench coach John Russell still hasn't been contacted for an interview, I'm told
— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) October 21, 2014
Person with direct knowledge confirms second meeting set for Tuesday between Paul Molitor and Terry Ryan regarding #MNTwins mgr opening.
— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) October 20, 2014
I'm still rooting for Mientkiewicz to get the job, but these reports hint that Molitor's going to get the job.
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It's been easy to forget over the course of the long layoff, but the World Series starts tonight.
I expect this series to ultimately boil down to the power arms of the Kansas City bullpen versus the fastball-hitting middle of the San Francisco lineup. How good are the Giants against high velocity?
SF hitter ranks (among 150 qualified in MLB in '14) vs. fastballs of 95+ mph: 6. Pence, .373; 10. Posey, .344; 29. Sandoval, .322.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) October 20, 2014
Yeah, they're that good.
I frequently see a series like this as turning on a strength vs. a weakness. In this case, I see a strength versus a strength. That's harder to call. I'll take the Royals in this matchup, but I'm not particularly comfortable with that call.
Sunday, November 3, 2013
Pic of the Week
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| Home plate umpire Jim Joyce had plenty of company making the safe call on Jonny Gomes in the third inning of Game Six on Wednesday, |
The Red Sox had very good World Series, which is why they are the champions. Joyce, I think, had an even better Series.
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This concludes the Pic of the Week series for another year. Click here to review all my selections. There have obviously been some good ones, but my favorite from this year is the one of Torii Hunter tumbling over the outfield wall in vain pursuit of David Ortiz' playoff grand slam.
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