The end of the Tyler Kinley Experiment

Tyler Kinley's ERA
is 24.38. That decimal
point is not misplaced.

The Twins announced after Wednesday's loss to the Yankees (six losses in a row now) that they would designate Tyler Kinley for assignment. So the Rule 5 guy is coming off the 40-man roster, either by trading his Rule 5 rights to somebody willing to carry him on the 25 man roster all year or by returning him to the Miami Marlins, whence he came.

I've noted often enough that the Twins exposed Nick Burdi and Luke Bard to the Rule 5 draft in order to open a roster spot for Kinley. Bard was DFA'd a few days ago by the Angels; his status is unknown. Burdi will spend most if not all of the season on the disabled list as he rehabs his surgically reconstructed elbow; his Rule 5 clock won;t start ticking until 2019.

My sense of this is that I wouldn't trade either Bard or Burdi for Kinley, but one aspect that I haven't dwelt on much is that Kinley has been healthier than either of the others. Both Bard and Burdi have missed a lot of time to injuries in the minors. (They've also been, generally, more effective when they've been able to pitch than Kinley.)

This is a common thread among the young arms the Twins discarded during the off-season to clear space on the 40-man roster. Not just Bard and Burdi, but J.T. Chagrois and Randy Rosario -- hard throwers with injury histories. If half of life is just showing up, half of pitching is just taking the mound.

Kinley could take the mound. He just wasn't good enough on the mound to get more innings for this team, and even with this losing streak, this team has sufficient ambitions that it can't afford to sacrifice a roster spot to somebody it can't use.

Notes from the weekend

Ugly series all told against Tampa Bay for the Twins. They couldn't deal with the former Twins in the Rays outfield (Denard Span and Carlos Gomez) and the bullpen stuck so bad one assumes the trainer had to check the old guys for signs of decomposion.

Span went 5-for-14 with three runs and six RBIs. Gomez scored the winning run on Friday and hit a monster walk-off homer off the previously impregnable Addison Reed on Sunday.

Go-Go, by the way, is hitting third for Tampa Bay despite a .160 batting average. It's still early.

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Gabriel Moya, lefty reliever I really like even through his major league numbers to date aren't good, was optioned out Sunday to make room for Phil Hughes. Dick Bremer was claiming that Hughes showed improved velocity on his rehab assignment, but we certainly didn't see that in Sunday's start.

For the first time, I now consider it a genuine possibility that the Twins will give up on Hughes relatively soon. They're on the hook for not only this season but next on his contract, so that's a genuine consideration. But when Ervin Santana returns -- and my guess is end of May at the earliest for that -- there's no room for him in the rotation. And there may not be room for him in the bullpen either.

Gotta get outs. And Hughes needs to start getting them soon.

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Luke Bard, a hard-throwing relief prospect the Twins lost to the Angels in the Rule 5 draft, has now been designated for assignment. If he slips through waivers, I would assume the Twins will happily reclaim him.

Bard is said to have the highest spin rate on his four-seam fastball in the majors this year. That's nice. It obviously wasn't enough to keep him on the Angels roster.

If the Twins get him back, it may make it a bit easier for Minnesota to abandon the Tyler Kinley experiment. Kinley has pitched just three innings so far, and those innings haven't made Paul Molitor eager to increase his role. It's difficult for a contender to carry a Rule 5 guy.

Rule 5 update

Tyler Kinley has yet to appear in a game for the Twins; Paul Molitor is, presumably, looking for a really low-leverage situation for his debut, and the Twins haven't had that yet except in the Jose Berrios complete game.

Meanwhile, Luke Bard, one of two pitchers claimed off the Twins in Rule 5, has gotten into three games for the Angels. He's pitched four innings and allowed one run on two hits and five strikeouts, all of which is good; he's also walked four, which is bad.

Luke Bard's game-ending strikeout of Jed Lowrie came on a 2,844 rpm elevated 4-seamer. That's what high-spin fastballs do -- get whiffs up in the zone -- and Bard's could be the highest we've seen since Statcast started tracking. pic.twitter.com/cnNxTOcttb

— David Adler (@_dadler) March 31, 2018

The other Rule 5 loss, Nick Burdi, is on the 60-day DL with the Pirates. His Rule 5 clock really doesn't become a factor until 2019; he had Tommy John surgery last season and isn't likely to pitch this year.

Bard versus Kinley is an intriguing comp. The Twins COULD have put Bard on the 40 last winter; they wouldn't have gotten Kinley in that case, but Bard would have options and could be sent to the minors. Kinley, as a Rule 5 guy, can't. There would be roster flexibility.

And the Twins will need a fifth starter next week, which will require a roster move. It's more likely that Gabriel Moya will be the demotee than that Kinley will be offered back to the Miami Marlins, but ... the reality of Rule 5 for contending teams is that it's really hard to devote a roster spot to that kind of player for the full season. Even if the Twins think Kinley is better than Bard, the flexibility matters. I'd rather have Bard.

And the payoff for keeping a Rule 5 guy is often slim. The Cincinnati Reds -- not a contender, of course -- two winters ago took catcher Stuart Turner out of the Twins system and kept him. He hit .134 in 82 at-bats. Last week,  his Rule 5 requirements satisified, the Reds waived him. He cleared and was outrighted to Triple A. So the Reds no longer think he's worth a 40-man roster spot, one year after carrying him on the active roster all season.

The opening roster takes shape

Hardly had I gotten Thursday's post published than the Twins did other than predicted. Tyler Duffey was optioned out (as was Alan Busenitz), leaving the Twins with 13 pitchers for 12 spots. The final spot figures to go to either Gabriel Moya or Tyler Kinley, with Kinley favored.

This suggests that the decison makers are confident that the starters are prepared to give them some length when the season opens next week. That hasn't been the outlook in recent years. Keeping Duffey and Phil Hughes would have given the Twins a fifth starter and a long reliever (or two spot starters/long men). Instead, it's just the post-operative Hughes.

Duffey will be used in relief in Rochester but in a stretched-out way, akin to how he was used last season. And he'll be in Minnesota sooner than later. There will be a need for innings out of the bullpen.

More surprising to me, in truth, was the lopping of veteran non-roster infielder Erick Aybar. I had been resigned to the notion that the suspension of Jorge Polanco and the uncertainty over Miguel Sano meant that Aybar, who hit well early in camp and then faded, was going to be on the opening roster.

Instead, it appears that the Twins intend to have five outfielders open the season in the majors. This may be related to Eddie Rosario's multi-week issues with his throwing elbow.

The conventional wisdom has Robbie Grossman and Zack Granite as the extra outfielders. I wouldn't rule out Ryan LaMarre, but he does have the significant disadvantage of being a non-roster guy.

And Mitch Garver will be the backup catcher. Bobby Wilson and Willians Astudillo were both told they won't be on the opening roster.

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Kennys Vargas was claimed on waivers by the Cincinnati Reds, which is a bit puzzling. The Reds, as a National League team, have little need for a designated hitter, and Vargas should not be taking at-bats away from the great Joey Votto.

Best guess is that the Reds will quickly waive Vargas in hopes of stashing him at Triple A, which I think is what the Twins were hoping to do.

Contemplating Tyler Kinley

Tyler Kinley's outing Monday elicted these competing viewpoints from the Star Tribune's LaVelle E. Neal III and Baseball America's J.J. Cooper:

Tyler Kinley hit 99 mph with his fastball and 90 with his slider. If he can cut down on walks, can't see who the Twins leave Fort Myers without him.

— LaVelle E. Neal III (@LaVelleNeal) March 5, 2018

Tyler Kinley pitched better than his stat line will indicate today. R5 pick has shown 96-99 mph FB according to TV gun, also decent secondaries. Still see a hard road for him to stick with Twins contending for a playoff spot.

— JJ Cooper (@jjcoop36) March 5, 2018

Tyler Kinley is 27 with an ERA
in two Double-A seasons of 4.97,
but he has great stuff.

Presumably Neal meant "how the Twins leave Fort Myers without him," not "who," but there is a "who" factor in keeping Kinley, as I'll expound later in this post.

The Twins took Kinley in the Rule 5 draft out of the Miami organization, where last year he had imposing numbers in High A ball and poor results in Double A, then followed that up with a dominating 14 games in the Dominican Winter League. Rule 5 means the Twins have to keep him on the active roster or return him to the Marlins.

There has already been a opportunity cost to Kinley: The Twins lost, among others, Randy Rosario on waivers to create openings on the 40-man roster before the draft, and lost Nick Burdi and Luke Bard in the Rule 5 draft themselves. They couldn't keep all three by passing on Kinley, but they could have kept one by foregoing the draft.

I suggested in a Monday print column a couple weeks ago that the Twins bullpen lacks a reliable power arm. I didn't list Kinley as a possibility for that role, but perhaps he's worth considering. Let's imagine a possible bullpen, eight men as Paul Molitor is apparently leaning to open the season (with four starters, so a 12-man staff).

We have, in my estimation, five givens: closer Fernando Rodney, right-handed setup men Addison Reed and Tyler Hildenberger, and left-handed setup men Zach Duke and Taylor Rogers.

Most observers appear to consider Ryan Pressly a sure thing as well. I don't believe Pressly has earned the benefit of the doubt, but let's pencil him in as No. 6. (He's the closest thing to an established power arm in this bullpen,)

We don't know who the fourth starter is yet, but let's say it's Aldaberto Mejia (the only lefty in what I've dubbed Tier One in the competition.) If so, Phil Hughes goes to the bullpen, since he has some $26 million left on his contract and the Twins are unlikely to pull the plug on him with that much on the table. (And if Mejia is out of options, he might wind up in the 'pen if Hughes wins the rotation spot.)  That's seven.

My presumed eighth is Tyler Duffey, who was a pretty reliable multi-inning reliever in the early going until Molitor started overusing him.

Upshot: I agree with Cooper. It's difficult to see how Kinley sticks. The Twins could trade for his Rule 5 rights, which would allow them to option Kinley out and would also increase the opportunity cost.

Or they could decide they like Kinley's power stuff more than they like Pressly's. I don't have a problem with that, but I've learned over time to be suspicious of my inclination to favor bright shiny objects. The Twins spent this offseason trying to minimize their bullpen risks; dropping Pressly for Kinley would be increasing them, and I doubt that's going to happen.

Rodney and Rule Five

The Twins had a busy Thursday with bullpen moves:

• They lost a pair of power arms from their Double A bullpen in the Rule 5 draft;
• They picked up a power arm from a Double A bullpen in the Rule 5 draft and
• They reached a reported contract agreement with veteran closer Fernando Rodney.

Let's start with the latter, since that is certain to have an effect on the 2018 team.

Most of us know Rodney to some degree. He spent seven years with Detroit to open his career; he was the losing pitcher in the famous Game 163 of 2009. He'll turn 41 during spring training, he's third in career saves among active pitchers (behind Francisco Rodriguez and Huston Street), he's made three All-Star teams and the Twins will be his ninth major league team.

This well-crafted opinion was issued early Thursday, after news that Brandon Kintzler had reached a two-year deal with the Washington Nationals:

If the #MNTwins were/are more interested in Fernando Rodney than Brandon Kintzler, they're doing it wrong.

— Edward Thoma (@bboutsider) December 14, 2017

They are quite different in pitching styles and repertiores. Rodney throws 60 percent fastballs and alomost 40 percent changeups; Kintzler throws more than 80 percent fastballs. Kintzler's strikeout rate and walk rates are both near the bottom of the league; Rodney's strikeout and walk rates are both about twice Kintzler's. Rodney threw strikes on 61 percent of his pitches (21 percent swinging strikes); Kintzler, 64 percent and 9 percent. (Stats from the Bill James Handbook.)

I'd rather have Kintzler pounding the strike zone than Rodney fighting his command. And since Paul Molitor's stated rationale for going with Kintzler and then Matt Belisle as his closers was that he could rely on them throwing strikes, I suspect Molitor might agree.

Kintzler got two years, $10 million from the Nats; Rodney one year at $4.5 to $6 million depending on incentives. (Both deals are pending physicals; both reportedly include an option year.)

It's possible the Twins preferred Kintzler too, but that Kintzler preferred the Nats. Or that the Twins truly see the addition of a veteran closer as a placeholder and want/expect to transition to a younger pitcher in that role as the season progresses and thus didn't want to do multiple guaranteed years. 

A lot of Twins fans will be irritated by his habit of wearing his cap cocked to the left and his post-save celebration of pantomining firing an arrow into the sky. I will be more irritated by the 2-0 counts and walks.

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Lost in Rule 5: Nick Burdi and Luke Bard. Gained in Rule 5: Tyler Kinley. Three hard-throwing right handed relievers who spent much of 2017 in Double A.

Burdi and Bard were high draft picks during the second Terry Ryan era; both have missed more time than they've spent on the mound in the minors. The Twins reportedly tried to trade Burdi to the Braves last summer in the Jaime Garcia trade only to have him rejected on medical grounds. My guess is that the new regime does not believe either can remain sound enough to help the major league bullpen. And Burdi in particular is unlikely to fill the 90-day active roster requirement to retain Rule 5 picks in 2018. 

Kinley has been in the Marlins organization. His numbers in Double A and Triple A are not impressive, but he has apparently been dominating in winter ball so far, and the Twins opted to take a flier on him.

I will be surprised if Kinley sticks.