Not their year, once again

I knew in the first inning that Brian Duensing wasn't on his game. He got out of the inning without allowing a run, but the Yankees were hitting the ball in the air, and that simply won't work. Not in that ball park, not against that lineup. Sooner or later, those outfield flies are going over the wall.

My sense that the Twins could beat the Yankees this year was based on two concepts:

• That Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano and Duensing (and Nick Blackburn) could keep the ball in the park;
• That the Yankee rotation was fragile.

In the actual event, the Yankees hit at least one homer in each game, and Andy Pettitte and Phil Hughes pitched well -- better than ace CC Sabathia.

Nothing fragile about the defending champs, at least not in this series.

Five things to watch in Game One (and beyond)

1) The Yankees are necessarily worried about their starting pitching behind their ace, CC Sabathia. Andy Pettitte's back issues have limited him to three starts and 13.1 innings since July; his ERA in those starts is 6.75. Phil Hughes went 18-8 but has second half ERA of 4.90; and A.J. Burnett and Javy Vazquez have been so horrid that Joe Girardi doesn't dare start them in this series. Beat Sabathia in Game One, and the Yankees may be in trouble.

Jim Thome limbers up to unleash his
blinding speed.

2) On the other hand ... the Yankees figure to use just one right-handed starter even if the series goes five games, and that's bad news for the Twins, who are essentially forced to keep both Jim Thome and Jason Kubel in the lineup. A sound Pettitte and Sabathia are poison.

Thome's splits: .302/.455/.698 against right-handed pitching, .241/.298/.471 vs. left-handers.

Kubel: .260/.328/.464 vs. righties, .225/311/.344 vs. lefties.

3) Those splits matter when facing the New York bullpen. The Yankees have one LOOGY available, the immortal Boone Logan. It's a quality bullpen, but it's a right-handed pen.

4) The quality of the bench matters more in the regular season, but the Twins' array of backups — Drew Butera, Jason Repko, Matt Tolbert, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto — lacks a bat.

One can say, justly, Who in the lineup do you want to pinch-hit for? True enough, but go deeper. The Twins need a pinch-runner for Thome, and they have four reasonable options for that role —but if you run for Thome and the game goes longer, who's going to hit in that spot?

A good bench player has one or two specific skills for the manager to deploy (and is a reserve because the other aspects of his game are too weak to be useful); a good bench has a variety of skills available. This bench has too many of the same skills, too many of the same weaknesses.

4) Two Mondays ago the weekly print column suggested that the Twins projected rotation (Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Brian Duensing and Nick Blackburn) matched up well with the Yankees because it avoids the long ball. Since then, that foursome has allowed eight homers in less than 29 innings.

The Twins must keep the ball in the park. This may be the single most important factor in the series – if the Twins can force the Yankees to grind out their runs, I believe the Twins will win.

5) TBS will be carrying this series — it has all four of the divisional series — and while it doesn't matter in terms of the play on the field, I will be curious to see if they take the pains the local broadcasts did during the final homestand to avoid showing the billboard on Target Center.

Setting up the slam

"We're always aware of the numbers. I know (Alex Rodriguez) has been good against Matty (Guerrier). Sometimes you can't do anything about the numbers. We're going to go with our best pitcher at the time."

Ron Gardenhire

Really, once Derek Jeter's hit caromed off Scott Baker's leg and into short right field — giving new meaning to the term "leg double" — there were no real good choices for Gardenhire.

We know what he did in the seventh inning Friday with a 4-3 lead and Yankees on second and third, no outs.

1) He brought in Brian Duensing, lefty, who got Brett Gardner to pop up to short left. One down.

2) He had Duensing walk Mark Teixeira intentionally to load the bases.

3) He brought in Guerrier to face Rodriguez — who hit the second pitch over the left field fence.

Now, lets talk about those numbers. The ones getting the most attention in these second-guess post-mortems are these: Rodriguez was 4-for-6 lifetime against Guerrier — with three homers.

Now he's 5-for-7 with four homers against Guerrier.

Some other numbers: Teixeira is 1-for-5 in his career against Duensing. And Robinson Cano, the missing piece of this equation — the man hitting behind Rodriguez — entered the game 1-for-5 against Guerrier, 1-for-4 against Duensing.

I don't blame Gardenhire for not wanting to pitch to both Teixeira and A-Rod in such an obvious game situation. I understand his faith in Guerrier, and recognize that four homers in seven at-bats isn't something easily done in batting practice. Gardenhire played for the double play, and he got burned.

But still, I think the smarter move was to have Duensing pitch to Teixeira, walk Rodriguez, and face Cano. Of course, that requires getting two of the Yankees 3-4-5 men out rather than one — assuming they could get the DP on Rodriguez.

Granted: You can't have Duensing face Rodriguez with the game on the line.

You can't have Guerrier face him either.