Goodbye, Guerrier

Matt Guerrier was born in Cleveland, and his last
outing for the Twins came against Cleveland.

The last of the Reunion Three got the ax after Wednesday's game: Matt Guerrier was designated for assignment.

Ryan Pressly was recalled to take his place on the 25-man roster, and the Twins, for now, have an opening on the 40-man roster.

Guerrier ends his second stint with the Twins with a record of 0-1, 3.86 in 28 innings. The ERA had been a pretty sparkly 2.67 before an ugly outing on Tuesday, but that was deceptive. He hadn't had a "clean" outing -- no baserunners allowed -- since June 22, and that was a one-batter appearance. He hadn't had a clean outing of an inning or more since May 28. Ten walks and 12 strikeouts in 28 innings is not a solid foundation.

I never saw the purpose in giving Guerrier a roster spot over Pressly or Michael Tonkin, but somebody did.

As with the other two retreads from playoff teams past, Jason Bartlett and Jason Kubel, my issue isn't with the player. I do not begrudge a veteran trying to milk another season (or more) from his declining skills. My issue is with the management that could not, or would not, recognize that these guys didn't belong in the majors any more.

---

The Twins will get an extra draft pick next June, having "won" a pick between the second and third rounds in the "competitive balance" lottery. An explanation of the lottery can be found here.

Five thoughts from a three-shortstop win

Chris Parmelee brings his walk-off homer home.

My wife and I went to Target Field to see Tuesday's game in person. A few observations:

* This is said to be Chris Parmelee's eighth time with the Twins, testimony to how the organization has yo-yoed the former first-round pick between the minors and the big club since 2011. Parmelee 8.0 is supposed to be a more aggressive player.

We'll see how well that plays as time passes; 17 plate appearances don't suffice for judgment. But I do take note that two of his three hits Tuesday came off lefty relievers (a single off Craig Breslow and the game-winning home run off Andrew Miller). Parmelee hasn't shown a huge dropoff against lefties in his 648 career plate appearances — he hasn't stuck because he hasn't hit period, not because he hasn't hit southpaws — but considering that his ultimate competition for playing time are fellow lefties Jason Kubel and Oswaldo Arcia, it helps to hit the lefties.

* Three shortstops in the starting lineup: Eduardo Escobar at shortstop, Danny Santana in center field, Eduardo Nunez as the designated hitter. All three did something to help.

Realistically, of course, Nunez should be considered a shortstop in the same vein as Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe came up as a shortstop and demonstrated that he can't hack the position defensively. Nunez did the same with the Yankees.

Still, the use of a purported shortstop as the DH is rather jarring. One is a glove-first position, and defensive skill is completely useless at the other. Almost 30 years ago Bill James ridiculed the Twins for having Roy Smalley split the 1986 season between short and designated hitter: "This is a new role on a major league roster."

Nunez hit a homer off Jake Peavy in the five-run second inning, so it worked. 

* Santana drew two walks — off his minor-league record, it's tough to walk him even once — scored a run and didn't look nearly as lost in center field as fellow shortstop Escobar did a few games ago. Dan Gladden, on the post game radio show, praised Santana for his ability to take his eye off a fly ball, run to the spot and find the ball again.

Santana also got picked off first after one of those walks, and it mattered — he led off the eighth inning with the base on balls and didn't give Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer a chance to make something of the early baserunner.

The Twins can rave about Santana's talent, but he's mistake prone.

* Santana's role is a curious matter right now. The Twins obviously have a hole in center field. Aaron Hicks, for the second straight year, won the job with an impressive spring training and immedately failed to hit once the regular season began. Sam Fuld is 32 and is nobody's answer to center field.

Ron Gardenhire has started Escobar and Santana in center out of desperation. He needs a center fielder now, and the ultimate answer (Byron Buxton) isn't available. But if Santana is the shortstop of the future, playing him in center on a regular basis isn't a good long-term move.

*Escobar's plays were routine. Nothing flashy. But several required long throws after grounders to his backhand side, and he's certainly got sufficient arm for the position. At the plate, Escobar had a hit and a run scored.


I believe that the 2014 Twins are better off with Escobar as the shortstop. But if the Twins believe Santana is the shortstop for the Sano-Buxton era, and if Santana is on the major league roster, Santana should be the shortstop.

On the other hand, maybe they see Santana as a Ben Zobrist-type of multi-position guy in the long run. That's not as crucial as a quality regular shortstop, but Santana may simply be too mistake prone for that.

* It was simply irritating to see Matt Guerrier get the ball with the lead on the line in the seventh inning.

This wasn't the plan. Michael Tonkin started the seventh with two quick outs, then couldn't get the third out. Brian Duensing came in and thought he struck out David Ortiz, but the ump didn't agree, and Ortiz ultimately singled. Then Duensing clearly pitched around Mike Napoli to set up a matchup with Grady Sizemore, only to see Jonny Gomes pinch hit.

At this point, Gardenhire had to bring in a righty. Normally I think it would have been Casey Fien, but I think Gardy wanted to avoid Fien after he got hit in the pitching biceps by a line drive on Sunday. Tonkin had already been used, and I suppose Jared Burton was being saved for the eighth.

So enter Guerrier. It was a telling matchup in this sense: Gomes is a platoon player (.276/.377/.501 vs. lefties in his career, .225/.310/.421 vs. righties). A right-handed short reliever has to be able to put Gomes away. And Guerrier couldn't. Gomes just kept fouling pitches off until he drew the walk to tie the game.

One at-bat, but it serves to confirm my belief that Guerrier at age 35 does not belong in the major leagues.

These expensive reunions

Brooks Raley, we
hardly knew ye.

To make room for Matt Guerrier on the 40-man roster, the Twins waived left-handed pitcher Brooks Raley, who was claimed by the Angels.

A number of the Twins bloggers I follow on Twitter professed to be unaware the Twins had such a name on their 40-man roster, so how big a loss could he be?

He was easily forgotten. He wasn't around long — the Twins picked him off waivers from the Cubs just before spring training and shipped him to Rochester in an early round of cuts — and his Triple A numbers so far this season haven't wowed anybody (not that anything in 14 innings should wow anybody).

But I will say this: He's 25 and left-handed. Guerrier is 35, right-handed and coming off significant surgery. Left-handed pitchers are more valuable than a right-handed pitcher of equal ability.

Raley may never be a good major league pitcher, but he can't help but have a better chance of being a useful piece two or three years down the road than Guerrier has.

There is a hidden cost to this spring's obsession with reunions with players of playoff seasons past. Effectively trading Raley for Guerrier is a mistake for this team, because it has more future damage than present reward.

Some of the obsession hurts in the here and now, of course. To keep Jason Bartlett — who wound up retiring before April was out — the Twins lost Alex Presley to the Astros. Again, Presley is no great loss in and of himself, but he IS a 28-year-old outfielder who can pass in center.

The Twins have spent the first 20 percent of the season without a legitimate corner outfielder. As of Thursday, with both Aaron Hicks and Sam Fuld on the concussion DL, the Twins had NO legitimare outfielders on the roster, unless you have a wide enough definition of "legitimate outfielder" to include Jason Kubel.

But they did have four shortstops on the 25-man roster, so they put a shortstop in center and watched balls go over his head.

It's a misshapen roster, and the problems begin with an inability to recognize that the past is past.

The return of Matt Guerrier

Matt Guerrier rejoins
the Twins bullpen.

Jason Bartlett washed out. Jason Kubel has been a fixture in the outfield and in the middle of the lineup.

And now a third prodigal son from the Gardenhire glory days is officially back. Matt Guerrier had an out in his contract; if he wasn't on the major league roster by today, he could declare free agency and see who else might want him.

So the Twins are activating him, it being apparently intolerable to risk losing a post-operative 35-year-old reliever with a 4.00 ERA in 11 minor league innings. Logan Darnell has been optioned back to Rochester, but that only opens a place on the 25-man active roster. They also need a spot on the 40-man roster, and that move will apparently be made this morning.

My guess is that Josh Willingham — remember him? — will go on the 60-day disabled list. He's already been out about a month and apparently some time away from being ready, so that seems plausible.

I can think of some more drastic moves — such as designating Mike Pelfrey or Pedro Florimon for assignment — but they're not likely to happen.

Notes, quotes and comment

Frank Viola during the 1987 World
Series. "Sweet Music" was the MVP
of that memorable Series,

The Twins sold Vance Worley to Pittsburgh on Tuesday.

It's no surprise that they moved him out of the organization; as I've written a few times, he didn't fit in the Triple A rotation. Even if, as it now appears, Kyle Gibson isn't going to be optioned out again, Rochester has Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Sean Gilmartin, Kris Johnson and Logan Darnell, all of whom figured to be ahead of Worley.

The Twins didn't get much from Worley, but that doesn't mean the Ben Revere trade was a disaster. May remains, and he was always the higher ceiling piece of the deal. And Revere remains what he was when the Twins traded him, a player of extreme strengths and weaknesses. He should be a usable major leaguer for years; I don't expect him to become a star.

Certainly the Twins expected more than they got from Worley, and certainly the trade would look better had they gotten some decent pitching from him. I don't think his failure means the Twins should regret the trade.

---

Frank Viola, one of my faves from the the 1980s Twins, needs heart surgery. It will come next week, and it will keep the 1988 Cy Young Award winner from serving as the pitching coach for the Mets' Triple A affiliate in Las Vegas. Good luck to him.

---

I found this fascinating: Joey Votto, the Cincinnati Reds star, says he swings at too many strikes. He wants to be more like Joe Mauer:

... when he says that he’ll swing less in the strike zone this year, he’s talking about really swinging at the pitches he wants to make contact on. In other words, he’d like to be “more in that (Joe) Mauer category, really efficient, swinging at a really low rate inside the strike zone, and outside the strike zone, very rarely swinging.” Nobody swings less than Joe Mauer.

Votto, like Mauer, takes a lot of heat from the local radio ignoramuses who confuse RBIs with productivity.

---

Matt Guerrier did re-up with the Twins. While he lost out on his retention bonus, he did get an earlier opt-out date, so he got something out of it.

Parsing Monday's cuts

The Twins on Monday optioned out, reassigned or released 10 players. This was the really serious round of cuts, the ones that truly shape the Opening Day roster.

Let's analyze:

Pitchers: Non-roster relief candidates Deolis Guerra, Matt Hoffman and Aaron Thompson were reassigned, and 40-man roster relievers Michael Tonkin and Ryan Pressly were optioned out. Nonroster reliever Matt Guerrier was released.

That Chris Herrmann didn't
make the roster figures
to affect how Josmil
Pinto is used.

Guerrier might be back, and I think he will. Had the Twins simply reassigned him to Rochester — and they could have — they would have owed him a retention bonus. Guerrier figures to see if anybody else was impressed enough to offer him a major league job; if not, he's likely to re-sign and go to Rochester.

Pressly was in the bullpen all last season, but he was a Rule 5 guy then. Those restrictions no longer apply, and he and Tonkin simply ran afoul of the numbers. I saw tweets from a couple of metro writers surprised that Tonkin didn't make the roster, but he needed one of the established right-handed short men (Jared Burton, Casey Fien) to be traded or hurt. Still does, for that matter.

Guerra, Hoffman and Thompson were always destined for Rochester.

Hitters: Nonroster infielders Doug Bernier and Delbinson Romero were reassigned, as was nonroster outfielder Wilkin Ramirez. No real surprises there.

Catcher-outfielder Chris Herrmann, who is on the 40-man roster, was optioned out, and after Ron Gardenhire went out of his way on Sunday to rave about Herrmann, that was a surprise. It appears the Twins will keep Chris Parmelee, who is out of options, instead.

The problem is that it means little DH time for Josmil Pinto, and that probably means the Twins will be using a lefty at DH or in the outfield against left-handed starters. Gardenhire has never paid a lot of attention to the platoon advantage, of course, but after the weekend hint that he was open to it, this is disappointing.

What's left: The Twins now have 29 players in camp, four more than they can take north.

One cut is obvious: Nonroster catcher Dan Rohlfing's not making the final roster. He's just around to ease the strain on Kurt Suzuki and Pinto for the final week of exhibitions.

Kyle Gibson and Scott Diamond are duking it out today for the fifth starter job. Gibson has an option left, Diamond does not. The Twins might opt to keep both and option Caleb Theilbar out.

One of Parmelee or Chris Colabello stays, and Colabello has options left.

The utility infield job goes to either Eduardo Escobar or Jason Bartlett, and as much as Gardenhire raves about Bartlett, Escobar should be an easy choice. Maybe Bartlett will agree to go to Rochester. If he doesn't, I don't think the Twins are losing out on much.

Spring training trip, Day 2: Overview

Matt Guerrier is hoping
to revive his career with
a return to the Twins.

If Thursday's game featured legitimate lineups (and it did) and a packed house (and it did), Friday's was something else again. Baltimore had no assured starters in its lineup, although the Orioles did bring a legitimate set of pitchers. And there were plenty of open seats in Hammond Stadium.

The Twins had a split squad, with one set playing the Yankees in Tampa (and winning that one 7-3).

The final outcome in my game was a 2-2 tie. Brandon Waring, the former Oriole farmhand of whom I wrote in my Day 1 recap, bopped a two-out homer in the bottom of the ninth off Troy Patton to even the score. But when Chris Parmelee flew out to end the ninth, the game ended. Presumably the Orioles were out of pitchers, or perhaps the umpires decided almost three hours of lethargic baseball was enough.

Which it was. Mike Pelfrey starts are simply difficult to sit though. He exceeded 50 pitches in the first two innings and didn't make it through the fourth.

He was followed by most of the veteran late-inning options in the Twins 'pen -- Brian Duensing (who allowed a homer in his 1.2 innings); Glen Perkins (who fanned two in a 1-2-3 inning and then signed a big contract extension); and Jared Burton.

And then came Matt Guerrier, once a mainstay in the Twins bullpen and now a nonroster guy rehabbing from arm surgery. Friday was his exhibition debut for 2014. On the surface, it went well; Guerrier struck out two men and got his third on a weak grounder to second.

On the other hand, I kept an eye on the scoreboard radar gun readings, and he didn't top 89. In comparison, Lester Oliveros, who worked the ninth (despite having been dispatched to the minor league complex on Sunday), repeatedly threw his fast balls at 93 and 94 mph and finished his inning with a reading of 96, which broke the hitter's bat.

Guerrier was never a big velocity guy, but in his heyday he cracked 90 pretty frequently. This is not a slam on him -- as I said earlier, he's still in rehab mode -- but I'm going to say he's a bit short of being ready for the majors.

Notes, quotes and comment

Yet another ex-Twin returns on a minor league deal. This time it's Matt Guerrier.

Guerrier's 2013 season was ended by a significant injury -- his flexor muscle had to be reattached to the bone -- and spring training opens at the beginning of the end of his rehab. Rehab is supposed to be six to eight months, and it will have been six months since the surgery.

So there's a lot unknown about his condition or ability at this point. What we do know is that he's 35 and wasn't as effective in the National League the past three years as he generally was with the Twins.

It's a low risk, low reward signing. I don't see Guerrier, even if he makes the club, playing a major role in the bullpen, and I doubt he'll make the club. My expectation is that the final spot will still come down to Ryan Pressly vs. Michael Tonkin vs. an out-of-options starter.

---

More prospect rankings: Keith Law of ESPN released his Top 100 list Wednesday. I can't comment intelligently about his opinions, since I don't pay for ESPN's content (I reserve my financial support on such things for entities not part of the Death Star of sports journalism).

But I do know that the Twins on his list are:

• OF Byron Buxton, No. 1
• 3B Miguel Sano, No. 8
• 2B/OF Eddie Rosario, No. 49
• RHP Alex Meyer, No. 62
• RHP Kohl Stewart, No. 76

Law has Meyer and Stewart considerably lower than other rankers do. I don't object to that; both had some physical issues last year.

I saw that Meyer said in a TwinsFest interview that his shoulder soreness is gone and that his most recent MRI is cleaner than when he was drafted. That latter is ... let's say I'm skeptical that two years of pitching pro ball hasn't done something to the shoulder.

---

The Andrew Albers-to-Korea deal is now official. The lefty gets a nice payday, and the Twins get an open roster spot, which they will probably need this spring, if not before. (Guerrier, signed to a minor league deal, does not count against the 40-man roster; neither do Jason Bartlett or Jason Kubel.)

Ex-Twins watch: Matt Guerrier

Matt Guerrier goes into a handstand during
batting practice, to the amusement of teammate
Brandon League.

The news Sunday that Matt Guerrier had been designated for assignment by the Los Angeles Dodgers prompted me to visit his Baseball Reference page to review his career.

He had a nice run with the Twins, starting out as the long man/mop up guy and working his way into a key set-up role. He had five straight seasons (one with the Dodgers) in which he made at least 70 appearances, and he twice led the league while with the Twins in games pitched.

All that work — plus the fact that he's in his mid-30s now — probably took a toll on his arm. Guerrier spent most of 2012 on the Dodgers' disabled list, and while he was back on a 70-games-pitched pace this year, he wasn't effective (a 4.80 ERA doesn't cut it anywhere, but particularly in pitcher-friendly Chavez Ravine).

And so the Dodgers — in last place in the NL West but only four games out of first — decided to eat the remaining $2 million or so of his contract and move on.

It's possible that Guerrier will land somewhere once he's cleared waivers and been given his release; he has a track record, and the Dodgers will be on the hook for the $2 million. But it won't be in Minnesota. The Twins don't have a bullpen problem (even if the relief crew got torched Sunday by the Royals), and even if they had an opening, they have younger and presumably more talented options in their minor league system to go to first.

More pre-draft stuff

Baseball America's final mock draft still has the Twins taking Sean Gilmartin. The commentary says the organization is targeting "strike-throwing lefties" and would prefer Tyler Anderson of Oregon, but they have Anderson going 16th overall (to the Dodgers).

No players from Minnesota are going to be taken tonight (all they're doing today are the first round and the supplemental first round, which is made up of extra picks awarded for lost elite free agents). None of the Minnesota players BA gives scouting reports on are from the Mankato area.

The Twins pick 30th, then pick at 50, 55, 87, 117, 148 and 178, and so on. They got compensation picks for Jesse Crain and Orlando Hudson, because the Twins offered those two arbitration, but not for Matt Guerrier, Brian Fuentes or Jon Rauch, because they didn't offer them arbitration. And, of course, they re-signed Carl Pavano, so no picks for him.

I said repeatedly last winter that I'd rather have the picks than Pavano, and nothing that has happened this season has changed my mind. I thought not offering arbitration to Guerrier, Fuentes and Rauch was the wisest thing to do, and certainly the lowest risk, and I'm starting to wonder about that judgment, at least in Guerrier's case.

A multi-year contract with a 30-something free agent relief pitcher is a bad bet, but arbitration is a one-year deal. Guerrier landed a three-year deal for $12 million from the Dodgers, and I don't blame the Twins for avoiding that bullet. But they did give Pavano a two-year deal for $16.5 million, and that's a bigger bullet.

The risk in offering arbitration to Guerrier was that he would accept arbitration and wind up awarded a one-year, $5 million deal. That was a real possibility, because as a Type A free agent offered arbitration he would be a very costly signing. The Dodgers probably don't offer him the deal he got if he also cost them their first-round pick tonight.

But if he had accepted, the Twins probably wind up walking away from Pavano, and they wind up with (a) less money being paid out; (b) a rotation spot for Kevin Slowey and (c) an established, reliable middle reliever. And if Pavano signed elsewhere, the Twins would have a pick from his departure, and if Guerrier HAD signed elsewhere, the Twins would have two picks from HIS departure.

But they didn't want to take the chance of both accepting. I believe they also expected Slowey would fit neatly into Guerrier's old role. That. obviously, didn't happen

I have the evening off, so I will monitor the draft and post a quick comment on whoever the Twins select tonight.

The lesson of Matt Guerrier

Matt Guerrier has a contract with the Los Angles Dodgers. Jesse Crain has a deal in place with the Chicago White Sox. (Crain has a physical to pass before the contract is finalized.)

Matt Guerrier had 93
holds with the Twins,
including an AL-best
33 in 2009.

Guerrier appeared in 74 games last year with a 3.17 ERA. Crain pitched in 71 games with a 3.04 ERA. They provided a lot of games and a lot of big outs for the 2010 Twins -- and the 2009 Twins, the 2008 Twins ... they've been at the core of the Minnesota bullpen, and now they're cashing in with a pair of $12 million contracts.

Which is fine by me. I'll be writing something in future days specifically about Crain and the White Sox, but right now I want to focus on Guerrier and an important principle of constructing a roster that he represents: Relief pitchers are readily created.

Good organizations are confident in their ability to identify unproven pitchers who can fill a bullpen role. Lesser operations throw three-year contracts at $4 million a season at "proven arms" and get burned.

The Twins picked up Guerrier on waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates after the 2003 season. Mull that over a bit; the Pirates -- not a good team -- decided this guy wasn't worth a spot on the 40-man roster. The Twins -- a playoff team, two-times defending division champion --scooped him up and got six full seasons of mostly solid bullpen work. (The second half of 2008, when Ron Gardenhire burned him out, being the exception.)

Guerrier was never the prototypical short reliever. Most bullpen guys have one big pitch. Guerrier has a starter's repertoire -- in 2001 he went 18-4 for the White Sox' Double-A and Triple-A affiliates -- but his velocity was deemed too low to be an effective starter in the majors. He gained velocity as a relief pitcher (which is normal; it's a sprint, not a distance race) and used his command and variety of pitches to get outs.

I call it the Greg McMichael Rule, but it could be renamed for Guerrier: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you. It took a couple years for Guerrier to push his way out of the long relief job -- two years and some failure by people ahead of him in the pecking order, like Juan Rincon and Crain -- but for the past four years Guerrier has been one of Gardenhire's primary seventh and eighth inning options.

Now he's moving on, and the Twins will move on too. The Dodgers will overpay in Guerrier's 30s for what he accomplished in his 20s, and the Twins will seek to replicate with some other unproven hurler what they did with Guerrier.

I like their chances of success more than I like the Dodgers' chances.

Free agent arbitration: Matt Guerrier

2011 age: 32 (turns 33 in August)

Free agent classification: Type A

2010 basic stats: 5-7, 1 save, 3.17 ERA (full stats here)

2010 salary: $3.15 million

The Outsider's verdict: No

---

The primary problem with offering arbitration to Matt Guerrier is in the second line above: His status as a Type A free agent.

Matt Guerrier has risen
from mop-up man to
primary set-up man
in seven seasons with
the Twins.

It means that, if the Twins offer arbitration, a team that signs Guerrier is likely to lose its first-round pick in next summer's amateur draft. That's not the case for a bad team, but bad teams aren't likely to pursue a 30-something middle reliever, and Guerrier isn't likely to be eager to sign with a non-contender. He's facing the same dilemma that has confronted the likes of Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson: The low guys on the Type A totem pole find that their status weakens their negotiating position.

If offered arbitration, Guerrier is likely to accept; and the Twins may not want to fit his likely award into their budget.

He's had a nice run with the Twins. Twice he's led the league in appearances. His ERA has been under 3.40 in every full season but one.

Not bad for a guy the Twins plucked from the waiver wire when the Pittsburgh Pirates decided he wasn't worthy of a spot on their 40-man roster.

Matt Guerrier does not equal Eddie Guardado

If the stereotypical closer is Goose Gossage or Lee Smith — hulking flame thrower — the reality is somewhat different.

There have been plenty of successful closers who thrived without intimidating velocity, including Eddie Guardado (right), who picked up 86 saves in his two seasons in the ninth-inning role with the Twins.

Everyday Eddie got it done without a single dominant pitch. He worked with command and attitude.

Which some think makes him a template for Matt Guerrier, who also lacks a dominant pitch but has the command and attitude part.

One big problem with that comparison, however. Eddie G. missed bats. Matty G. does not.

Look at the Baseball Reference link above for Guardado and you'll see excellent K/9 rates until his age 36 season, when his shoulder was giving way. As a setup man, he consistently whiffed more than a batter an inning; as a ninth-inning specialist, just a little under.

Now look at Guerrier's. He doesn't match up. Last year he had the kind of strikeout rate Guardado had in his final season.

It's a significant difference. Strikeouts matter for pitchers. Guardado was — I write of him in the past tense because it appears his career is over; you get released by the Nationals, you probably can't pitch for anybody — a better pitcher than Guerrier is.

Guerrier and the 'pen

I thought, and wrote, that the Twins were making a mistake during the offseason by keeping Matt Guerrier (right) in their bullpen plans. I compared it to their decision the year before to keep Juan Rincon and said I would rather they found a new mistake to make.

Boy, was I wrong.

Guerrier has been the most reliable non-Nathan reliever in the Twins bullpen. The stats are good enough to merit All-Star consideration — there's a very good argument to be made that he Guerrier has been the best set-up man in the league. He collected his 17th hold Friday night. He leads the AL in appearances. He has allowed less than a baserunner per inning. He's 4-0 and has blown just one lead.

This after a horrid 2008 in which he was overworked in the middle part of the season.

The middle relief crops remains a muddle for the Twins, although that may be more a matter of perception than of reality.

Jose Mijares can exasperate the manager, coaches and fans with bouts of control issues, but he has enough stuff to get away with it.

R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball was brought in to eat innings, and he's been more than that — still nobody's idea of the guy to bring in with key men on base, but a 2.83 ERA is strong enough to argue for an expanded role.

Guerrier himself is not a classic power arm.

Then there's Bobby Keppel, whose history suggests he's a Quadruple A pitcher — effective enough for Triple A, not good enough to succeed in the majors. Keppel's ERA is a flat zero through 11 1/3 innings, although he's quick to deflect any suggestion that he's that good. Nobody is, obviously.

That's four of the five non-Nathan arms currently in the Minnesota 'pen. The other is Brian Duensing, who is the current occupant of the second-lefty role held earlier by Craig Breslow and Sean Henn and not a fellow Ron Gardenhire is itching to call on in the late innings.

There are reasons to fret about all the others too. But so far, they're getting outs.

Rising role for R.A. Dickey

The Greg McMichael rule lives, and R.A. Dickey (left) is abiding by it.

The McMichael rule — dubbed for the pitcher who, in 1993, rose from minor league free agent to closer for the Atlanta Braves — holds that, if you get people out, they'll find a role for you. The Braves of the 1990s had one of the greatest pitching staffs ever assembled, but they found room for McMichael.

Dickey, like McMichael, was a minor league signing. He was supposed to be the long man, the mop-up man, a guy who sucked up innings so more valuable pitchers didn't have to.

In April that's what he looked like. His ERA that month (11 innings): 5.73. Nothing great there.

In May, he started getting outs: 1.86 ERA (19.3 innings).

June has been even better: No earned runs so far (11.1 innings). Just four hits and one walk this month.

So on Thursday afternoon, with the Twins holding a 6-3 lead, it was Dickey who got the seventh inning. Not Sean Henn, not the departed Luis Ayala, not the demoted Jesse Crain. He faced three men, none of whom got it out of the infield, and collected his first hold of the season. He threw 10 pitches, seven of them strikes.

Dickey has earned this bigger role. His emergence may slightly diminish the burden on Matt Guerrier (who surrendered a home run in the eighth inning Thursday) and Jose Mijares, but that's OK. The Twins have been aching for somebody to do just that.

Beautiful bunts

A Jim Souhan column in Friday's Minneapolis paper bemoaned the lack of small-ball from the Twins, and cited as evidence that this is a problem this set of won-loss stats — the Twins are 24-16 when they hit a homer, 10-18 when they don't.

Make that 11-18 now, after Friday's win — a win with plenty of small ball. The Twins had three sac bunts and a bunt single. Two of the sac bunts came back to back, the last a beautiful suicide squeeze by Nick Punto.

* Matt Guerrier has been in danger of being overworked. And suddenly he was in danger of disappearing altogether before he pitched the seventh inning Friday.

He had pitched five times in six days after last Saturday's game. He hadn't pitched since. Sunday was the Jesse Crain debacle, Monday an off day, Tuesday's win was largely mopped up by R.A. Dickey, Wednesday's loss turned into a blowout by Sean Henn and Luis Ayala, and Thursday was Blackburn's complete game.

For that matter, Jose Mijares, the other primary setup man, made only his second appearance of the past week Friday.

The Twins have both cut their bullpen from seven to six and gotten their main setup arms some days off.

The Crain train detrailed

The moment I saw Jesse Crain warming up Sunday, I knew the Twins were in trouble.

And sure enough, four of the five men he faced in the bottom of the ninth reached safely, which was more than enough for the Cubs to break the 2-2 tie.

Crain this month has faced 17 batters, eight of whom have either gotten a hit or walk.

The telling quote from Ron Gardenhire after the game: "You try to find the right situation to put him in ballgames, but when you get to this point there is no right situation."

I have some sympathy for Gardy on this one: Matt Guerrier had pitched on June 8, 10, 11, 12 and 13 — five times in six days. Granted, most of those outings were brief — he totaled eight outs in those five games — but that's still excessive use. Luis Ayala had pitched the eighth — more on that later. And the Cubs had a string of right-handed hitters up, so it's understandable that he wanted to avoid calling on Sean Henn or Jose Mijares.

Which left Joe Nathan, Crain or R.A. Dickey. Nathan had pitched four times in five days himself, so he wasn't going to be asked to pitch multiple innings. And Dickey ...

Well, frankly, why not Dickey? I know: He's the long man. Well, guess what? He's been far more effective than Crain — his ERA since April is 1.52 — he's right-handed, and if the game goes extra innings, he's equipped to soak up the extra work. And he hadn't pitched in a week.

The underlying issue here remains bullpen depth. Guerrier has been far better than I could have hoped; Mijares has bounced back from his spring training disaster; Henn and Ayala are contributing in limited fashion; and Dickey has been marvelous in the long role.

Crain's supposed to be the eighth-inning right-handed power arm. And he's been useless.

The Gardenhire quote above sounds like he's running out of patience with Crain. A lot of fans reached that point a few weeks ago.

---

Ayala had a perfect eighth inning Sunday — three up-three down, three first-pitch strikes, even a strikeout.

And somehow it took him 22 pitches to accomplish it, because there were 10 foul balls. The man just cannot miss bats.

Which is why I say he's useful in a limited fashion.