Ex-Twins watch: Jamey Carroll

Jamey Carroll has
just four hits in 42
at-bats since the
Twins sold him
to Kansas City.

Jamey Carroll picked up the 1,000th hit of his major league career Friday. One thousand hits is a lot for a career utility infielder — Nick Punto, for example, has 757 hits — and testifies to Carroll's longevity and perseverance.

There probably aren't a lot more hits in his future, quite possibly none. He's 39, and the decline in his numbers is obvious: a .290 batting average in 2011, .268 in 2012, .211 this season. The Royals hold a $2 million option for 2014; I can't imagine they'll exercise it.

If this is the end, it's still been quite the impressive career in its own way. He didn't make his major league debut until he was 28, but he still carved out a 12-year career and, by Baseball Reference's reckoning, earned more than $18 million in the process.

Not a great player by any means, but not everybody is cut out for greatness. Carroll found a niche he could fill, and did so competently for more than a decade.

Trading Jamey Carroll

Jamey Carroll had
537 plate appearances
is 137 games last
year, but just over
200 PA this season.

The Twins did themselves and Jamey Carroll a favor Sunday by sending him to Kansas City in a waiver-wire deal.

Carroll benefits by landing on a team that has legitimate playoff hopes. I don't think the Royals are going to make the playoffs, but they're in the running. Miguel Tejada, who rather surprisingly has emerged as the second baseman in K.C., just went on the disabled list, and the Royals obviously didn't care for the second basemen they were using before they got Tejada. So Carroll is likely to get some serious playing time for a couple of weeks at least.

The Twins are to get a player to be named or cash. If it's a player, it's likely to be a nonprospect. The benefit isn't so much who the Twins get as opening a roster spot, and a bit of playing time, for somebody already in the organization.

Carroll is 39, and he hasn't played a significant role on the field for the Twins. He wasn't likely to be back in 2014 regardless of where he finishes this season. The Twins will merely move into their no-Carroll future a few weeks early.

And maybe a few days before they were truly ready.

It's unclear how the Twins will use the vacated roster space. They could bring back Eduardo Escobar and replace a utility infielder with a utility infielder, although they might do well to get a legitimate outfielder on the roster.

With Josh Willingham limited to DH duties by his post-surgical knee (not that he was a gazelle in the field before the injury), the Twins have just two true outfielders, Clete Thomas and Oswaldo Arcia, and Arcia isn't a defensive whiz either. Chris Collabello, a first baseman, has been getting considerable time in right field, which is not a plus for the pitching staff. The other outfield alternative, Chris Herrmann, is supposed to be primarily a catcher, although he's said to be a good defensive corner outfielder. (His bat plays better at a premium defensive position.)

At some point — and that point may not be here yet — some guys are going to start coming off the disabled list. Ryan Doumit, on the concussion DL, is to be examined today; the thought appears to be that he might be cleared to come off the disabled list when his seven day minimum stay is up Thursday. Darin Mastroianni, on the shelf since early April, is on a rehab assignment. So is Wilkin Ramirez.

The Twins used Doumit's spot to bring back Willingham. They can't — yet — use Carroll's to bring back Doumit; he can't return until Thursday. I'm not sure Mastroianni or Ramirez are ready yet.

At the keystone

Brian Dozier was a shortstop last year, a second baseman
this time around.

Around the time my Monday print column connecting the competence of the Twins infield defense to that of their pitching staff was being readied for publication, Phil Mackey was making much the same points in this piece on the merits of Eduardo Escobar as an infield regular.

Of particular note in Mackey's reporting is Ron Gardenhire saying that while Escobar can handle shortstop and third base, he thinks second base is Escobar's best position.

OK, let's sort through this. Jamey Carroll is going to be on the roster, preferably as a frequently-used utility man. He turned 39 last month, and his offense last season was better when he got more time off. If Carroll winds up the regular at any infield position, it means Plan A failed.

Pedro Florimon entered camp as the favorite for shortstop. He can pick it, but he can't hit it. The same can be said of Escobar. Good field, no hit.

Then there's Brian Dozier. He flopped as a rookie at short last year and has been used strictly at second base this spring. Tom Kelly last week lauded his improvement. Dozier played all nine innings in Monday's exhibition against the St. Louis Cardinals and was involved in turning five double plays, which is not a bad sign at all.

Escobar may well be the superior defensive second baseman, but it's going to be difficult to justify having Florimon and him both in the lineup on a regular basis. Of the three non-Carroll candidates, Dozier is the only one with a respectable minor-league resume as a hitter.

Of course, that track record didn't translate to the majors last year.  If Dozier is to emerge from Florida with the job over Escobar and Carroll, he's got to hit as well as field. My guess is that he's going to get the chance.

Benchmarks for 2013: Middle infield

Brian Dozier had the most playing time at shortstop
last season, but didn't shine in the field or at the plate.

The Twins have truly lacked stability in the middle infield for much of Ron Gardenhire's tenure. Since the breakup of the League of Nations infield he inherited from Tom Kelly (Doug Mientkiewicz, Luis Rivas, Corey Koskie and Cristian Guzman) after the 2004 season, the Twins have had just two three 100-start seasons in the middle infield: Luis Castillo in 2006 at second base, Jason Bartlett in 2007 at shortstop, Orlando Hudson in 2010 at second base.

Eight seasons of patchwork in the middle infield. 2013 is likely to be more of the same.

There are four primary contenders for playing time at second base and shortstop, with three other middle infielders scheduled to be in camp this spring. Taking the big four alphabetically:

Jamey Carroll played all over
the infield in 2012.

Jamey Carroll, entering the second and final year of his Twins contract, is the one guy assured of a roster spot. The veteran, who turns 39 next month, hit .268/.343/.317 last season as he split time at second base (64 starts), shortstop (36 starts) and third base (30 starts).

It's worth noting that Carroll's final numbers were boosted by a big September (.388 for the month) that was also the month in which he had the least playing time. Only once did Carroll play four days in a row in the final month.

Pluses for Carroll: Versatile, reliable, and the one guy in the running with any track record of competency at the plate. Minuses: An almost complete lack of power (while the on-base percentage is quite acceptable for a middle infielder, the slugging percentage is not), and age takes its toll on everybody.

He might wind up with the biggest share of the second base job, but I think the Twins would rather use him in a heavy-use reserve role.

Brian Dozier was handed the shortstop job in midseason and didn't do much with it. As a hitter, he showed a little more power than Carroll and a lot less ability to avoid making outs. In the field, he was ... well, he was an improvement over the mess that was the 2011 shortstop crew, but he was the weakest regular shortstop in the division.

Dozier illustrates what I see as one of Gardenhire's chronic weaknesses as manager: Although he's a former middle infielder himself, Gardenhire's track record at evaluating middle infielders, and particularly shortstops, appears to be wanting. Gardy essentially had to be forced to play Bartlett in 2006. Last year, it appeared that Gardy wanted Dozier from the start, and Terry Ryan and Co. were dubious. In May, Gardenhire got Dozier, and played him consistently until Ryan took him away in mid August. All summer, Gardy talked up Dozier, and all summer, Ryan provided a background murmur of discontent with the shortstop play.

The plan for 2013 appears to be trying Dozier at second base. He has hit some in the minors, and there is precedence for the theory that shifting a player to a less-demanding defensive position can help him at the plate.

Pluses for Dozier: The most potential in this group to hit. Minuses: Very little experience at second base, and he's probably already blown his shot at the shortstop job.

He's probably the front-runner for second base, but if he has trouble turning the double play, or if his hitting is still the mess it was at the end of 2012, it's back to Rochester.

Eduardo Escobar, acquired from the White Sox in the Francisco Liriano trade, is a largely unknown quantity. He spent much of 2012 as a utility infielder with the Sox and had just 14 at-bats with the Twins. Right-handed hitter, very popular in the Chicago clubhouse, just turned 24 this week (he's the youngest of this field of four serious contenders).  By process of elimination, if nothing else, he should get a good look this spring.

Pluses for Escobar: Reputed to have good defensive tools. Minuses: His minor-league record doesn't indicate that he'll hit.

He could win the shortstop job; he might be the utility guy if Carroll winds up with the bulk of the second base job; he might go to Rochester to get some playing time.

Pedro Florimon:
A .579 OPS isn't going
to cut it in the bigs,
no matter how good
the defense.

Pedro Florimon, picked up on waivers from Baltimore last winter and then outrighted to Double A, ended 2012 as the Minnesota shortstop. Turned 26 last month, a switch-hitter who struck out as often with the Twins as he got a hit (30 of each).

He's a rangier shortstop than Dozier, but somewhat error-prone -- and he is, emphatically, no hitter.

Pluses for Florimon: He can help the pitching staff in the field, and this staff (especially the rotation) needs the help. Minuses: He's got to hit better than .219/.272/.307. His minor league record as a hitter is weaker than Escobar's.

He's probably the front runner for the shortstop job, but I doubt he can hold it.

The other guys: Daniel Santana is on the 40-man roster, but he hasn't played above High-A yet. He's ticketed for Double A New Britain. Non-roster invitees James Beresford and Ray Olmedo are essentially roster filler for Rochester and/or New Britain.

The endgame

Ideally, Dozier takes control of the second base job and hits well enough to justify a slot at the top of the order, and one of Florimon or Escobar emerges as a reliable defense-first shortstop.

It's possible that there are no right answers here for Gardenhire -- that neither Florimon nor Escobar can hit well enough to keep their gloves in the lineup, that Dozier really isn't destined to be a major league regular. But the Twins need to find out. Carroll may be the safest choice in the middle infield, but he's no long-term solution.

In this regard, Gardenhire's lack of job security may get in the way of the longer term good of the organization.

Here comes Brian Dozier

Brian Dozier is to
take over as the
regular shortstop
today.

Today Brian Dozier (and Scott Diamond) report to the Twins.

Diamond replaces fellow rookie Liam Hendriks as the fifth starter. I touched briefly on that in the Monday print column, and I'm sure I'll have more to say about it in the next day or so.

Today, let's talk Dozier, who Ron Gardenhire said Sunday on his radio show will be his everyday shortstop now. Dozier turns 25 next week, he's a right-handed hitter, he was an eighth-round pick as a college senior (most collegians sign as juniors), and he shot up the ladder pretty quickly, never spending a full season at any minor league level.

Unlike Diamond (or Hendriks), Dozier wasn't a September call-up last year; the Twins didn't have to put him on the 40-man roster last winter, so they saved the roster spot. So tonight figures to be Dozier's major-league debut.

The word out of spring training was that Dozier was the best defensive shortstop in camp, and Ron Gardenhire appeared to favor making him the shortstop then. The Twins stuck with the offseason plan of Jamey Carroll at short (and Alexi Casilla at second) because:

• Dozier had about a half-season of Double A ball on his resume and no time in Triple A;
• The two veterans were expected to be better hitters than Dozier;
• By delaying Dozier's debut, the Twins depressed his service time and perhaps put off his arbitration eligibility.

Jamey Carroll turns a double play Saturday
against the Mariners.

In fairness to Terry Ryan, that last was probably a minor point. This call-up is early enough that, assuming Dozier sticks, he'll probably be a "Super Two" and arbitration eligible after 2014. (And if all goes well, last year's first-round pick, Levi Michael, might be knocking at the major-league door by then.)

Carroll has been a competent defensive shortstop for the first month or so of the season. And durable, too; he's played all but one inning in the field, which would be fairly impressive for a shortstop a decade younger (Carroll is 38).

But Carroll hasn't hit -- slash line .206/.306/.237. He has drawn 13 walks, second on the team to Joe Mauer, but .306 isn't a good on-base percentage for anybody, much less a top-of-the-order guy, and he's not a power threat.

Dozier isn't going to fix the offense. But one can reasonably expect him to do better than a .543 OPS (Carroll) or .597 (Casilla), whichever comes out of the lineup to make room for the rookie. Dozier may be only a marginal upgrade in the field and at the plate, but even a marginal improvement helps.

Adding Dozier gives the Twins a legitimate middle infielder on the bench, which may have the indirect effect of helping Trevor Plouffe. Remember, part of the idea of moving Plouffe to the outfield was to replicate what happened to Michael Cuddyer when he made the move from infield to outfield. With the defensive burden lifted, Cuddyer became a better hitter. Plouffe hasn't had that improvement happen yet; he hasn't really had that opportunity. He's been pressed into service as the backup infielder as well as a part-time outfielder; instead of decreasing his defensive responsibilities, the Twins increased them.

The old shortstops

Jamey Carroll has
never been a regular
shortstop in the
major leagues.

A couple of notes related to the Monday print column on the Twins shortstop situation:

A Yankees-oriented blog, Was Watching, recently posted this list of shortstops who played 100-plus games at age 38 or more. I'm linking to it here so that I have ready access to it.

It's relevant to the Yankees because of Derek Jeter. It's even more relevant to the Twins because of Jamey Carroll, who is, as of now, slated to be Minnesota's regular shortstop.

The list is Hall-of-Famers or nearly so. There are a couple of nonentities from the 1880s and the first years of the American League, but everybody else was a true standout. Omar Vizquel had a corner on the market in Gold Gloves for a decade, Maury Wills won an MVP, Larry Bowa set fielding records ... and those are the weakest careers of the bunch.

Jeter is one of the greatest shortstops ever. He fits that crowd. Carroll does not. That, in a nutshell, is why I am skeptical of the plan to install him at short.

---
Different book, same chapter, with a plot twist:

In the spring of 2005, Jason Bartlett was 25 and the putative heir to the shortstop position, freshly vacated by Cristian Guzman. Terry Ryan signed veteran utility infielder Juan Castro as a fallback option.

Ron Gardenhire was reluctant to play Bartlett; the manager found Bartlett too deferential. And, in truth, Bartlett didn't hit in 2005. Bartlett outplayed Castro in spring training 2006, but opened the season in the minors. It wasn't until Ryan dumped Castro that Bartlett got to play regularly.

Gardenhire is voicing no such reservations about Brian Dozier. But Ryan has provided his manager with a veteran utility infielder to play ahead of a relatively old rookie (Dozier turns 25 in May). He even signed Carroll as a free agent from the Dodgers, just as he did Castro.

This time around, it appears to be the general manager who is reluctant to turn the job over to the rookie.

Contemplating Jamey Carroll

Thirty-eight.

That's the single most important number connected to Jamey Carroll, the well-traveled infielder who is reported to have agreed to a two-year contract with the Twins for up to $7 million. The signing is not yet official, but the Twins aren't denying it.

Carroll turns 38 in February, and his age is a huge red flag if the Twins indeed intend to make him their regular shortstop.

Go through baseball history, and you'll find that only the very best shortstops remain at the position into their late 30s -- men like Honus Wagner, Luis Aparicio, Omar Vizquel. Everybody loses a bit of range as they age. If the player isn't the kind who wins Gold Gloves automatically in his 20s, he won't have enough range for shortstop in his late 30s. He changes position (if he has enough bat to be useful at third base or second base) or finds a new occupation.

Jamey Carroll ain't Luis Aparicio. He has never even been a regular shortstop in the majors. And now he's going to be one at age 38? Really?

Carroll got tagged early in his career as a utility infielder, probably because he came up in the Montreal organization at the same time as Orlando Cabrera, and the O-Cab was a good defender and had more power. (Cabrera, incidentally, is both younger than Carroll and apparently finished as a major league shortstop.) Carroll has gotten more playing time as he has aged and found different teams to play for.

Carroll wouldn't be the first man to get the utility label only to emerge later as a regular shortstop. Marco Scutaro comes quickly to mind. But Scutaro got his shot at short at age 33, five years younger than Carroll will be.

Now, Carroll almost certainly represents a step up from Trevor Plouffe or Tsuyoshi Nishioka, but that speaks more to the difficulties the 2011 Twins had in turning outs into outs. It doesn't make him a solution.

Carroll spent most of 2010-111 playing second base for the Dodgers, with some shortstop tossed in, and -- granted the Twins don't buy into the defensive metrics -- the best one can say for him there is that he was fairly average. Baseball Info Systems' plus/minus metric for the year ranks him as the worst second baseman in the majors (-12), and its runs saved stat isn't much better (-9). Both scores are considerably worse than in 2010.

Carroll doesn't make a lot of errors, and he's likely to make the routine plays -- turn outs into outs. He's far less likely to turn hits into outs.

You can win with that kind of shortstop. The Yankees and Tigers, with Derek Jeter and Jhonny Peralta, did so last season. But it helped both the Yankees and Tigers that they had high-octane starting pitchers, who got plenty of strikeouts and limited the number of balls in play. The Twins do not, and will not in 2012, have that kind of staff.

I don't see Carroll as a true fix for the position. Ten years ago, maybe. Today, I think, he's too little too late to solve much of anything with the defense.