Notes, quotes and comment

The Modern Era committee made its Hall of Fame selections and rejections Sunday.

It corrected one injustice by selecting Alan Trammell. It repeated another by leaving Marvin Miller out. And it committed a highly predictable error by electing Jack Morris.

That last is not a popular position in Minnesota. Morris was born and raised in St. Paul, he had that marvelous Game Seven to win the 1991 World Series, and he has a role in the Twins telecasts. (He's awful in that role, but that's the norm for FSN, which seems content to have analysts a generation behind the times.)

But the truth is, Jack Morris will be among the very worst pitchers in the Hall. (Rube Marquard and Jesse Haines are probably worse.) He was, as I said here, only once the best starting pitcher on the writers' ballot during the 15 years he was eligible. And he wasn't the best starting pitcher on the Modern Era ballot either. Both Tommy John and Luis Tiant have better credentials.

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The winter meetings officially begin today in Orlando, Florida, but two of the biggest moves of the offseason have already happened: Shohei Ohtani signed with the Angels, and (pending a physical) Giancarlo Stanton will be traded to the Yankees.

I really don't get the Stanton hysteria. Yes, he hit 59 homers. Yes, he's a top-of-the-charts power hitter. He also has a long history of injuries -- 2017 was only the second time he's played 150 games. And his presence, plus that of Aaron Judge, probably means the Yankees are not going to be contenders in the Bryce Harper derby next winter.

Given a choice between Stanton and Harper, I'll take Harper. And it's not close.

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Nor do I see Ohtani as a perfect fit with the Angels, although for his price tag imperfect fits are quite acceptable. Where do they get him the at-bats he desires? The outfield is pretty full with Mike Trout, Justin Upton and Kole Calhoun. DH? They're paying Albert Pujols $24 million a year though 2021, and he can't move anymore.

And if Mike Scoscia comes out of spring training saying, "We weren't really serious about giving him at-bats."  that's not a good look. They're going to give Ohtani a legitimate opportunity to play or have a grumpy Ohtani -- and a reputation for deceit.

But all that can be a useful problem, if they handle it right.

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Back to the Stanton trade. I snorted the other night at the office when I read the Associated Press lead to the trade story:

After helping the New York Yankees to five World Series titles, Derek Jeter might help them win another.

The notion that Jeter is being a sleeper agent for Brian Cashman is silly. The notion that Jeter is over his head in running a major league franchise is not.

And what is obviously true here is that Jeter's ownership group overpaid for the Marlins and are undercapitalized. Their primary goal this winter to unload debt, and the biggest piece of debt they inherited from Jeffery Loria's inept outfit was Stanton's contract.

Jeter tried to send Stanton to the Giants or Cardinals; Stanton, armed with his no-trade clause, refused. Ultimately, it came down to sending him to the Yankees for a pittance or having his contract on the books, and Jeter's group can't afford that contract.

Jeter may well have mishandled the trade talks by exposing his lack of alternatives, although that lack of alternatives was fairly obvious. The biggest mistake, however, was overpaying for a teardown project. They should have let Loria go bankrupt.

Giancarlo Stanton, Russell Martin, Jason Hayward and Billy Butler

A few significant moves the past couple of days, and even through they don't directly affect the Twins, there are still points to be made.

Giancarlo Stanton agrees to a long-term deal with Miami. Exactly how long term is difficult to say. It's Stanton's choice, basically; it's either 13 years for $325 million or six years for $107 million. He has an opt-out clause after the 2020 season.

This is a heavily backloaded contract, so much so that I can't see how the Marlins avoid getting badly scalded at the end. (Remember, I'm the guy who wrote last March that the Twins should offer a pair of 20-year, $200 million contracts to Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano; I'm hardly opposed to really long-term deals for really talented young players).

Stanton is just 24 now; his best years figure to be ahead of him. They figure to be behind him when the opt-out comes. I don't know how likely he is to decide that the market will support $31 million for him in his middle 30s. If he does opt-out, the Marlins dodge the bullet they just fired into their future.

In total, however, this is probably not a terrible contract for the Marlins. Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs did an illuminating analysis of comparable players to Stanton -- this level of production ages 22 to 24 -- and found 18 others since 1950. Most of them, he concludes, were productive enough to justify the complete 13 years of this deal.

Jason Hayward traded to St. Louis. Stanton is a star because he has one very important tool: He has top-level power. Hayward's power isn't as impressive, but he does everything else better. As a result, he's been a better player than Stanton, but few recognize that. (The two are about the same age, Hayward being about three months older.)

With Hayward a year from free agency, the Atlanta Braves chose not to pay him. They traded him to St. Louis for two young pitchers, notably Shelby Miller, on whom the Cardinals seemed to sour a bit last year.

Jose Posnanski goes into detail on the Hayward-Stanton comparison here. It is intriguing, the different approaches the Braves and Marlins took on these two outfielders.

Russell Martin strikes a five-year deal with Toronto.  OK, I can defend the Stanton contract. I can defend trading one year of Hayward for almost 10 years of pitchers. .

I can't see the logic in committing $82 million over five years to a 31-year-old catcher. It almost doesn't matter that Martin has had just one good year at the plate in the past six seasons. If it were five good years at the plate, the problem would still be there: He's a catcher entering the collapse years for hard-used catchers.

The Blue Jays are putting a lot of faith in his defense and his clubhouse intangibles, more than I think is wise.

Billy Butler agrees to a three-year deal with Oakland. Huh?

Another signing I don't get. Butler has no defensive value, he grounds into about two dozen double plays a year, his power has been in steady decline. I can't see why Billy Beane is sinking $30 million into this guy.

I don't imagine the Royals are sorry to see "Country Breakfast" go. His departure certainly opens a hole in the middle of the Kansas City lineup for a right-handed hitter, and the Royals are said to be pursing Torii Hunter hard.

K.C. makes more sense for Hunter than Minnesota does. He's looking for a ring, and the Twins are not ready to contend, while the Royals just went to the seventh game of the World Series. I think Hunter will sign with the Royals.

Which, as a Twins fan, is fine by me. I don't want Hunter with the Twins.