The return of Nick Blackburn

Nick Blackburn had his best outing of 2012 on
Friday, lowering his ERA to 7.46.

Nick Blackburn said upon his return from Triple A that he had found and corrected some mechanical flaws.

He had on Friday what I view as a prototypical "good" Blackburn start: 6.2 innings, seven hits, one run, no walks, two strikeouts.

The no walks (and no home runs) is good. The two strikeouts, not so much.

Dick Bremer at one point said something like: As good as Blackburn's sinker has been, he hasn't gotten any double plays.

Well, sinker or no, Blackburn wasn't really ground-ball heavy. The MLB.com feed credited him with nine ground outs, seven flyouts. ESPN had his mix even -- nine grounders, nine flyballs. This is probably a higher ground ball rate than usual for him, but not all that heavy a rate. (Kansas City starter Luke Hochevar, a very similar pitcher to Blackburn, had a 10 GB/4FB ratio, according to MLB.com.)

It's an odd thing: Blackburn relies on a two-seam, sinking fastball, and doesn't get all that many grounders. Scott Diamond tends to rely on what MLB.com identifies as a four-seam fastball -- straighter and harder than a two-seamer -- and generally gets at least twice as many grounders as flyballs.

I'm not inclined to complain about 6.2 innings of one-run ball. But I view this outing much as I did Cole DeVries' start on Thursday. DeVries threw six innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts -- but he had just two ground ball outs.

DeVries gives up a lot of fly balls, which leads to a high home run rate. Blackburn can't miss bats.

It's certainly possible to have good outings despite those flaws. It's very difficult to do so consistently.

Late night: Rangers 4, Twins 3, 13 innings

Josh Willingham dropped to the ground while leading
off first base in the fourth inning Sunday when a
bolt of lightning struck near the ballpark in
Arlington, Texas.

Box score here

Game story here

The Twins were one strike away. Numerous times.

We can lay the blame on Brian Dozier, whose error opened the ninth inning disaster. But even after that runner scored, Glen Perkins had a two-run lead with two outs in the ninth.

Then: Single, double, single — the latter two with two strikes — and the game was tied.

Too many bad pitches to good hitters. Or too many good pitches to good hitters. Perkins threw 28 pitches, and 25 of them were strikes.

But let us give credit to Cole DeVries. The Minnesota native shut out the best team in the American League for seven innings  — three hits, one walk, five strikeouts. Very sharp pitching performance.

He now has an ERA in the majors of 3.00 after five starts and one relief outing, a total of 30 innings.

We all know how desperate the Twins are for starting pitching, and an ERA of 3.00 almost certainly means more chances for DeVries. But we shouldn't expect him to maintain it; even with that very nice ERA, he's surrendered six home runs — one long ball every five innings. Nobody can feed the gophers that often and keep a respectable ERA. One of those stats has to give, and his minor league record, and his mediocre velocity, say it will be the ERA that gets worse.

He may never have a game this good again in the majors. But he certainly has this one.

Liam Hendricks and Cole DeVries

Liam Hendriks leaves the Comerica Field mound
on his way to Rochester.

Liam Hendriks had another rough outing Monday -- four innings, four runs, didn't get an out in the fifth inning after being handed a 5-1 lead -- and the Twins sent him back to Rochester on Tuesday and brought back Cole DeVries.

This is one of those moves that require me to remind myself that the men who make these decisions are closer to the situation than I am. I am an Outsider. There is much I do not know.

But off what I do know, I don't particularly care for this move.

Hendriks has not pitched well. That's obvious -- 0-5, 7.04 ERA, 10 homers allowed in 38.3 innings. DeVries, meanwhile, is 2-1, 3.43 in 21 innings (and five homers allowed) in his two brief major league stints.

But ... one of them figures to have a chance to be a rotation regular for this team, and that's Hendriks, who is four years younger than DeVries and has been consistently better than the Minnesotan in the minors.

Remember the Rule of 30 -- start judging a pitcher AFTER he has 30 major league starts on his resume. Yes, there have been pitchers who hit the majors running. But Greg Maddux was 8-18, 5.59 after his first 32 starts. Tom Glavine was 9-21, 4.76 after 43 starts. On a lower level of career success, Brad Radke was 11-14, 5.32 in his first season (28 starts).

Hendriks has a 3.29 career ERA in 16 Triple A starts. I don't think Triple A hitters are going to teach him much. (DeVries' Triple A ERA is 4.39.)

Hendriks is only going to get better if he faces tougher competition. This team isn't going anywhere. Investing starts in Hendriks now has a better chance of long-term returns than investing them in DeVries.

Back to the Twins ...

Cole DeVires was 1-1, 4.30 in three
starts with his hometown Twins

It's been a week since I last posted something that wasn't about the draft or Johan Santana's no-hitter. Let's catch up on some developments ...

Parmelee back, DeVries down: On Monday Cole DeVries "earned" his first major league win (five innings, five runs, four earned). On Thursday he was sent back to Rochester, with Chris Parmelee recalled.

This is in no small part a function of the schedule; the Twins won't need a fifth starter until June 16, what with days off on Thursday and Monday. 

The Twins still have eight bullpen arms on hand, which is more than they should need, but ... two of the three starts against Kansas City (the two wins) were only five innings. 

Parmelee has been raking in Rochester of late. It will be interesting to see how, or if, he gets used. His playing time was rather slim for a while before his demotion. At the start of the year, he took PT away from Ben Revere; will that happen again?

As for DeVries: He remains on the 40-man roster, but I doubt he'll return to the fifth starter role when the need arises. The Twins won two of his three starts, but that had less to do with how well he pitched than how much the lineup hit.

Blackburn replaces Pavano in the rotation: FSN was praising Nick Blackburn for his "gritty" start Wednesday. I was irritated then, and then again when watching the rebroadcast Thursday noon.

He faced 22 hitters and threw a first-pitch strike to eight of them. He threw 92 pitches, just 51 of them strikes. If the Royals had a lineup capable of taking walks and working the count, he'd have gotten hammered. 

But the Twins are stuck with him. Unlike the injured Carl Pavano and Scott Baker, and the suddenly resurgent Francisco Liriano, Blackburn is under contract for 2013, and I can't imagine anybody taking him off the Twins' hands.

Liriano has second strong start: Francisco Liriano had the best start of the Kansas City series, and he lost 1-0. I said after he beat Oakland that shutting down the A's didn't establish that he's back; I'll remain skeptical after the Kansas City game. The Royals are a good lineup for him to face: a lot of left-handed hitters, very limited strike-zone judgment.

The magic of the "m": The Twins have been wearing the old "m" cap since Memorial Day, and the relic of the World Series teams may not be returned to mothballs for some time.

Superstition is commonplace in baseball, but I'm more inclined to credit the Twins' 7-2 record with the cap to a soft schedule than to the lucky lids.

The rotation merry-go-round

P.J. Walters embraces pitching coach
Rick Anderson after his complete game
five-hitter Tuesday night -- easily the
best outing of his unsubstantial
major league career.

Jason Marquis, out. Cole DeVries, in.

Marquis' grip on his job was slipping all season, and his dreadful start Sunday — and the strain it put on the bullpen — made his departure inevitable. Marquis is probably going to land another chance somewhere, most likely in the National League, but I doubt there'll be enough demand for his services for the Twins to trade him. I would expect him to be released.

DeVries is lined up to start Thursday. If we count Scott Baker, who never took the mound in the regular season, DeVries will be the Twins 10th starter -- and we haven't reached Memorial Day yet.

I am mildly surprised that DeVries got the call. Liam Hendriks would have seemed more likely. But I assume that the Twins don't want to yo-yo the Aussie up and down. When he comes back, it's with the intent that he stays.

And while Marquis isn't returning to the Twins rotation, there are two pitchers now out of it who do figure to return to it — Francisco Liriano and Nick Blackburn. I would expect that when Blackburn is ready to come off the DL, it will be into the rotation spot DeVries is about to fill.

Of course, the Greg McMichael Rule is always in effect: If you get outs, they'll find a role for you. 


DeVries -- who was so far down the totem pole this spring that he wasn't even in major league camp -- may look like a temp worker right now, but so did Scott Diamond and P.J. Walters when they showed up, and their status becomes more entrenched with each quality start.

There remains reason to be skeptical of Diamond and Walters. Their raw stuff is not imposing, and their records of success are limited. But they've been more effective this season than Blackburn or Liriano, and if they keep getting outs, they'll keep getting the ball. And if one or both splutters, their roles can vanish quickly.

And the same will apply to DeVries. If he gets outs, he'll get the ball. If not, somebody else will. This is his chance.

The holes in the rotation

I missed out on almost all the Twins four-game winning streak last week while on my minor league journey. The games and my schedule were so aligned that even with the MLB At Bat app I was out of touch for all but a handful of innings.

So I missed the good stuff and was back in the loop for the latest -- and perhaps the last -- exhibition of pitching malpractice from Jason Marquis.

It may seem inarguable that Marquis should be out of his job, but the Twins haven't yet made it so. And it may be that putting Nick Blackburn on the disabled list has given Marquis a bit more rope.

The Twins have one (temporary) rotation hole to fill. Release Marquis, and they have a lasting hole to fill. What are their options?

1) Francisco Liriano. Ron Gardenhire has said that the Liriano-to-the-bullpen move was intended to be temporary, that he wants Liriano back in the rotation sooner rather than later.

Liriano got through some high-leverage outings during the winning streak. I don't know if he was so good that Gardenhire can feel confident that Liriano is ready to return to starting -- and I would think that they'd want to avoid starting him until they are sure they won't be pulling him out of the rotation again.

2) Liam Hendricks. The Aussie, demoted after four increasingly ineffective starts, has been impressive in three Triple A starts: 2-0, 1.93, 16 strikeouts in 18.2 innings. He remains the best long-term starting prospect in the upper levels of the system.

3) Cole DeVries, a right-handed pitcher, Minnesota native, 27 years old, at Rochester. His 1-4, 4.20 record  isn't impressive; his walk/strikeout ratio is. Seth Stohs, who knows the Twins system better than anybody else not employed by the team, is agitating for DeVries to get his shot.

4) Brian Duensing. He's been effective as a relief pitcher, and Gardenhire was talking a while back about returning him to the rotation on the throughly correct logic that his bullpen work was of little use if the starters were taking the team out of games early.

Duensing lost his starting job last year because he couldn't get right-handers out. So far, he's gotten the job done against righties.

5) Drew Butera. OK, not really. But the catcher showed off mid-90s velocity in his inning of work mopping up Sunday's mess, and didn't appear to be working all that hard.

Sort of makes me wonder if he shouldn't have been made a pitcher from the get-go.