Beginning the roster purge

Josh Roenicke:
3-1 with one save
in 62 innings.

The subtext to Monday's announcement that Ron Gardenhire would return as manager was: The Twins' lousy record was the result of a bad roster, not the result of subpar managing.

The first purge of that roster came Wednesday, as four players were outrighted from the 40-man major league roster (in a sense, 42-man roster, since the Twins have two players on the 60-day disabled list).

Getting the ax on Wednesday were outfielder Clete Thomas and pitchers Cole De Vries, Shairon Martis and Josh Roenicke. All will be minor league free agents; I suspect the Twins will re-sign at least one of De Vries and Martis as Triple A fodder, maybe both.

The closest thing to a surprise here was Roenicke, 31, who was on the big league roster all season and made 63 appearances out of the bullpen with a 4.35 ERA. He had a poor walk-to-strikeout ratio (36 walks, 45 strikeouts) and pretty much fell apart in September (ERA of 2.91 on Sept. 3, but he closed with 12 earned runs allowed, plus an unearned one, in his final 6.1 innings). The process was ugly all year, and it finally caught up with him.

These are, again, just the first loppings. There will probably be a couple dozen players out of the 42 removed from the major league roster over the next several weeks, as Terry Ryan works against the old adage that you fire the managers because you can't fire the players. We're about to see a lot of players fired.

Two puzzling call-ups

Shairon Martis is 26
now, but he pitched
in the majors for
Washington at ages
21 and 22.

The Rochester Red Wings were eliminated Sunday in the International League playoffs, which (a) concluded the season for the Twins minor league teams and (b) freed up the Twins to make the rest of their September call-ups.

Seven players got the call for the season's final three weeks or so: Pitchers Scott Diamond, Cole De Vries, Michael Tonkin and Shairon Martis; infielders Eduardo Escobar and Chris Parmelee; and catcher Eric Fryer.

Most of these were pretty obvious. Diamond, demoted for his ineffectiveness, went 4-0, 2.41 for Rochester and won his playoff start. De Vries, his season wrecked by a spring training injury, got it going late. Escobar, who had no previous history of hitting well, went .307/.380/.500 for the Red Wings; it wasn't a lot of at-bats (188 plate appearances), but that's a mighty attractive slash line for a middle infielder. Tonkin has a very real chance to be a bullpen factor next season.

And some are a bit surprising. Parmelee, for example: a .231/.318/.370 line for a first baseman-right fielder doesn't scream for his recall. I wonder how much playing time he's going to get; I wonder if this isn't his last chance to impress somebody.

Martis had a 4.26 ERA in 80 innings, mostly in middle relief; I doubt there's much there.

Eric Fryer gives
the Twins four
active catchers
going on five.

And Fryer ... he hit an unimpressive .215/.339/.365. The Twins already had three active catchers in Ryan Doumit, Chris Herrmann and Josmil Pinto — and Joe Mauer supposedly making progress in his recovery from his concussion. When Mauer returns, this gives the Twins five catchers. Even granting that several of those five can do other things than catch, that's a lot. I understand that Gene Glynn, the Rochester manager, really likes Fryer, but on the surface, there's simply no way Fryer rates with the other four.

My guess is that the Twins know they won't give either Martis or Fryer spots on their 40-man roster this winter, but they really want to retain the two as minor league free agents. (The Twins created the 40-man berths for them by putting Wilkin Ramirez and Sam Deduno on the 60-day disabled list; the other five were already on the 40.) This September call-up is, in effect, a bonus for them for being good organization guys in Triple A. A few more weeks of service time, some major league pay, a gesture of appreciation.

The sixth starter

P.J. Walters, having been designated for assignment, is now in baseball limbo. He's not officially in the Twins organization, but if nobody claims him on waivers, he can be outrighted to Triple A.

At the moment, the Twins' rotation features, in alphabetical order, Kevin Correia, Sam Deduno, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Mike Pelfrey. (It will be interesting to see how Ron Gardenhire lines them up coming out of the All-Star break; my guess is that Gibson will be at the end of the line.)

Considering that there's about half the season yet to play, the odds are that bunch will change. If Walters isn't a candidate to move back into the rotation, who is?

The possibilities include:

Pedro Hernandez

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Hernandez has made seven starts in the majors for the Twins (3-1, 5.54) and six for Rochester (2-2, 3.60). If he has a major league career ahead of him, it's probably as a relief pitcher. He'd be a safe place-holder, but that's all.

Cole De Vries was
5-5, 4.11 in his
time with the Twins
in 2012.

Cole De Vries

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Minnesota native would have opened 2013 in the major league rotation but ran into arm issues. He's made nine starts in Rochester and has gone 3-4, 8.16, with just 19 strikeouts in 43 innings. Hard to see him being close to a callup.

Liam Hendriks

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: The Aussie opened with the big club and went down quickly. He dominated the International League last year but has fallen off this year (1-6, 5.05). His status isn't high.

Vance Worley 

Status: 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: He's 5-3, 3.81 since his demotion, which looks pretty good compared to his fellow 40-man roster mates. But it comes with just 30 strikeouts in 52 innings. I do expect him to return to the major league rotation this year, but that's more because of what the Twins have invested in him than because he's earned it.

Minor league veteran
Andrew Albers pitched
for Team Canada
in the WBC.

Andrew Albers

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Lefty from Canada, he was just named to the IL all-star team (8-3, 3.00 with 86 K in 99 innings). He's 27 and has spent more time in his career in relief than starting, but he's been a fixture in the Red Wings rotation and is having a fine season. I don't see him as a likely long-term rotation candidate.

Logan Darnell

Status: Not on the 40-man roster, pitching in Rochester
Comment: Another lefty, he has made one start for the Red Wings after a strong first half with Double A New Britain (6-6, 2.61). He's 24, and this is by far his best minor league performance. Probably behind Albers in terms of getting a chance.

Nick Blackburn:
Forgot he was still
around, didn't you?

Nick Blackburn

Status: Not on the 40-man roster; on rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League
Comment: He makes the list only because he's getting $5.5 million this year, which I believe makes him the Twins' highest-paid pitcher. He's gotta do something in the minors before the Twins will consider letting him try to earn some of his pay in the majors, and I don't think it's real likely. No future benefit from his return; the Twins won't exercise his $8 million option for 2014.

Alex Meyer

Status: Not on the 40; currently on disabled list
Comment: Was shut down with a shoulder issue last month; the Twins say there's no structural damage, but caution is being exercised anyway. Probably the best pitching prospect in the organization, he's 3-3, 3.69 in Double A New Britain with 73 strikeouts in 61 innings. Won't get a callup this year. (Came to Twins in the Denard Span trade.)

Trevor May came
to the Twins in the
Ben Revere trade.

Trevor May

Status: On the 40, pitching in New Britain
Comment: Some good signs from May as he repeats Double A (6-5, 3.98 with 93 K in 95 innings). The control is improving, although his season walk rate (3.9 BB/9) is still too high. He might be a September callup, since he's already on the 40, but he's not going to be yo-yo'd up and down. Expect patience with him. 

Mike Pelfrey and the Potential Replacements

Mike Pelfrey struck out seven batters
Sunday, doubling his season total.

Mike Pelfrey had his best start of the still-young season Sunday, and he did so against a Cleveland team that is producing runs with anybody in the league.

He needed that strong outing. He entered the game with an ERA of 7.66, and pitchers with that kind of stat tend to lose their jobs. Even his six-inning, one-run Sunday left him with a 6.35 ERA, and that's not good either.

Pelfrey's potentially shaky status made all the more intriguing the list of starters working Sunday in the Twins minor league system:

• For Triple A Rochester, the starter was Sam Deduno, hero of the World Baseball Classic. 
• For Double A New Britain, it was Alex Meyer, the return in the Denard Span trade and generally regarded as the Twins top pitching prospect
• For high A Fort Myers, it was Cole De Vries, who figured to be in the opening rotation before being injured at the end of spring training. (De Vries is on a rehab assignment.)
• For low A Cedar Rapids, it was J.O. Berrios, the Puerto Rican teenager who is close to Meyer in status.

Berrios isn't going to pitch in the majors this year, but the other three all are real possibilities ... and having them aligned with Pelfrey makes it theoretically easy to flip any of them into his place if and when the Twins pull the plug on the veteran.

For the record:

• Deduno went five innings, allowing one run. Four walks, four strikeouts, 89 pitches, 51 strikes. 
• Meyer was knocked out of the box in the fifth inning, allowing five runs in 4.2 innings.
• De Vires, making his first start since training camp, went just four innings. He allowed six hits and one run and was reportedly hit hard in the final inning.
• Berrios went six innings, allowing two runs and striking out eight (no walks).

Even if the Twins were ready to pull the plug on Pelfrey, none of these guys are ready to step in right now. In a couple of weeks, it will be another story.

Eye on 2013: Cole De Vries

Minnesota native Cole De Vries
was signed as an undrafted free
agent out of the University of
Minnesota.

Cole De Vries began the 2012 season about as much on the outside as any pitcher in the Twins system. The Twins had 32 pitchers in major league camp; De Vries was not one of them.

De Vries' 2012 season ended Thursday when it was determined that he had a cracked rib from the line drive he caught with his chest Saturday. He exits 2012 as the third-best starter the Twins had this season -- 5-5, 4.11 in  87.2 innings, 16 starts -- essentially half a season. (He also had 70 innings at Triple A Rochester.) He ended strong -- his ERA in his final four starts was 1.54, and that included an outing against Texas.

He can, and should, feel good about his 2012 season.

The question today: Should the Twins feel good about having him in their 2013 rotation?

A 4.11 ERA isn't bad, but it's a bit deceptive in De Vries' case; he also allowed eight unearned runs, one of the higher numbers on the staff (Brian Duensing has allowed nine so far, and Liam Hendriks has also allowed eight.) Add in those unearned runs, and he allowed 4.93 runs per nine innings.

Looking at the key leading indicator stats: He had a very good walk rate (1.8 BB/9) and walk/strikeout ratio (3.22 strikeouts for each walk allowed). The strikeout rate itself (6 K/9) rates pretty highly for the team, but is below average for the league.

Those figures, in total, suggest his effectiveness was genuine.

On the other hand ... De Vries allowed 16 homers, 1.6 per nine innings, which is a high rate. His BABIP -- Batting Average on Balls In Play -- was .262, and that is not sustainable for a non-knuckleballer. Those stats suggest that he was getting results better than he "should" have gotten.

I've seen a comparison of De Vries to Paul Byrd, a late-bloomer who won 109 games in a 14-year career. Byrd, I think, represents De Vries' ceiling -- and the Twins should be delighted if De Vries can match the Byrd of 2002-2008.

But there are a lot of guys who match that kind of profile, and few get as much out of limited stuff as Byrd did. The Twins ought not go into the offseason with De Vries penciled into a rotation spot. He should be in a group competing next spring for the fourth or fifth slots. He has, in my view, been good enough to justify retaining on the 40-man roster this winter.