BA's top Twins prospects

The issue of Baseball America that showed up in my mailbox Friday includes this winter's top 10 propsects rankings for the AL Central. The Twins rankings are certainly different than last winter's.

Fernando Romero graduated -- he lost his rookie status last season -- so his absence is no surprise. But there are four new names on the list, and Romero was the only graduate. Stephen Gonsalves (No. 4 last year); Nick Gordon (No. 8); and Tyler Jay (No. 10) are all still in the organization, and all slipped out of the top 10.

Added are top draftees Trevor Larnach (No. 5) and Ryan Jeffers (No. 9); trade acquisition Jhoan Duran (No. 7); and international signee Yunior Severino.

I saw Larnach, an outfielder, and Jeffers, a catcher, at Cedar Rapids near the close of the Midwest League regular season. (See comments on Larnach here and on Jeffers here.) Duran, who came from the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Eduardo Escobar deal, eluded me. And Severino, an infielder signed when MLB nullifed a bunch of Atlanta Braves international signings for rule violations, spent the 2018 season in Elizabethton.

There are three pitchers on this list: Brusdar Graterol (No. 3), Duran and Blayne Enlow (No. 8). The writeups describe Graterol's ceiling as that of a rotation-topper, Duran and Enlow as potential mid-rotation starters.

Brent Rooker (No. 6) is the only member of the Top 10 to have reached as high as Double A, so this list is short on immediate help for the major league team.

The list:

1) Royce Lewis, ss
2) Alex Kirilloff, of
3) Brusdar Graterol, rhp
4) Wander Javier, ss
5) Trevor Larnach, of
6) Brent Rooker, of/1b
7) Jhoan Duran, rhp
8) Blayne Enlow. rhp
9) Ryan Jeffers, c
10) Yunior Severino, 2b

Notes, quotes and comment

Remember my (no doubt silly) notion of including catching prospect Mitch Garver in a starting pitcher deal? Much less likely now ...

Source confirms ex-#mntwins catcher Chris Gimenez is signing with #Cubs. I'm told it's a minor-league deal. @ChrisCotillo 1st.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) January 23, 2018

The Twins have signed some other catchers to minor league deals, but Garver is clearly (and correctly) ticketed for the backup role now. Bringing back Gimenez was almost certainly the preferred fallback.

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Does this imply that the Twins are out on Yu Darvish? I doubt it. The personal connections stuff we've heard about -- Thad Levine in the front office, Gimenez behind the plate -- is nice, but the real reason Darvish is still a free agent some three weeks before pitchers and catchers report is money. Nobody is offering (yet) the years and total he's looking for, and he isn't settling for less (yet).

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#mntwins lose LHP Bully Bouch (aka Buddy Boshers) on waivers to #Astros. Held lefties to .258 OBP last season. https://t.co/q6idVTJ0mS

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) January 22, 2018

And good for Boshers, who gets to remain on a 40-man roster, at least for a few more days.

Berardino noted later that the last two World Series winners have this offseason claimed lefty relievers off the Twins, the other being Randy Rosario by the Cubs. I think the Twins are more likely to regret losing Rosario than Boshers, but that may well be me being fascinated by bright shiny objects.

The Twins have no shortage of lefty relief possibilities without them.

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The Twins have five prospects on Baseball America's Top 100 list, released Monday,. Royce Lewis leads the way at No. 24, and the other four (Brent Rooker, Nick Gordon, Wander Javier and Stephen Gonsalves) are in the 90s.

Of note: The BA overall list includes Gordon, who was No. 8 on the Twins list compiled by Beradino, and not several guys Beradino had higher.

The BA prospects list

My off-the-top of-my-head ranking of the Twins Top 10 prospects wasn't very good, and it certainly doesn't match Baseball America's:

1) Royce Lewis, shortstop
2) Wander Javier, shortstop
3) Alex Kirilloff, outfield/first base
4) Stephen Gonsalves, left-handed pitcher
5) Brusdar Graterol, right-handed pitcher
6) Fernando Romero, right-handed pitcher
7) Brent Rooker, outfield/first base
8) Nick Gordon, shortstop
9) Blayne Enlow, right-handed pitcher
10) Tyler Jay, left-handed pitcher

Three guys on the BA list who weren't on mine. Rooker is the one I will kick myself for forgetting. I not only should have had him on my list, but top 5. I think he's going to be very good if not great at the plate.

The other two, Graterol and Enlow, are pitchers who haven't gotten out of rookie ball, and I am loathe to get enthused over those types. (That's particularly true of Graterol, who has already had Tommy John surgery.) The ceilings may be high, but I want to see more. There's a better chance of Zach Littell (No. 8 on my list, not on BA's) being in the Twins rotation someday than either Graterol or Enlow, just because he's already dominated Double A.

The BA list values high ceilings over high floors; my list was kinder to the high floor guys, like Mitch Garver and Littell.

A few other notes: Gordon dropping to No. 8 raised my eyebrows; he's not going to be on BA's top 100 prospect list again this spring after all. Kirilloff stuck at No. 3 despite not playing at all in 2017. Three 2017 draftees are on this list -- Lewis, Rooker and Enlow -- and just two international signings, Javier and Graterol.

Mike Berardino's byline appears on this year's list; he didn't do last year's, the first one he didn't do since takign the Twins beat at the Pioneer Press.

Royce Lewis, BA cover boy

Great seeing Royce Lewis on the cover of the latest @BaseballAmerica. @Twins fans are going to love watching this young man develop - on and off the field. pic.twitter.com/eINrVOqw2I

— Dave St. Peter (@TwinsPrez) January 3, 2018

So Lewis is atop BA's ranking of Twins prospects, and that makes sense to me. He was the first overall pick last June, he at least held his own in low A ball in August, and I sincerely doubt that Nick Gordon, the most likely position player alternative to Lewis, can be a quality major league shortstop. I don't think he'll hit with enough power to be a regular.

I don't know that Lewis is going to stick at short either. But right now the Twins are rather rife with shortstop prospects -- Gordon (who will be in BA's top 100 when that list in released), Lewis, Wander Javier, Jermaine Palacios. 

Anyway, BA's top 10 list for the Twins isn't in my hand yet, so I'll drop a off-the-top-of-my-head list on you now:

1) Lewis, shortstop

2) Stephen Gonsalves, left-handed pitcher

3) Fernando Romero, right-handed pitcher

4) Nick Gordon, shortstop

5) Wander Javier, shortstop

6) Alex Kirilioff, outfielder

7) Tyler Jay, left-handed pitcher

8) Zach Littell, right-handed pitcher

9) Mitch Garver, catcher

10) Akil Baddoo, outfielder

We'll see how that compares to BA's list.

A unique scouting hire

The Twins on Tuesday hired John Manuel, longtime editor of Baseball America, for their pro scouting staff.

As a Twins fan, this pleases and intrigues me. As a Baseball America subscriber, it saddens me. BA has a frequent staff churn, but Manuel has been there for 21 years.

The unique part of the hire isn't that the Twins hired a BA alum to scout; other organizations have done that. It's that they landed the biggest fish in the BA pool.

From Manuel's Facebook post on the change:

Last spring, the Wall Street Journal featured all the BA alumni who work for the Cleveland Indians, and Derek Falvey was the one who started that. Derek called me as a reference for Matt Forman back when he was hiring Matt as an intern in the Tribe’s baseball operations department. Derek and Matt went on to bring in more BA alums—five others so far—to Cleveland’s scouting department. So when Derek inquired to me about candidates to pro scout for the organization he now leads, the Twins, I couldn’t help myself.

I asked him, “What about me?”

I’d never asked that question to a member of a front office before. I’d talked about it with friends who are scouts or BA alums like Josh Boyd, Alan Matthews, Chris Kline or Matt Blood, but everyone in baseball knew I made the BA Kool-aid. My passion for the product and for my work has been obvious, over self-indulgent podcast tangents, or 2003 Rice stories during any random subsequent college baseball games, or any excuse to talk about the 2000 Olympics. 

But times change; ardor cools. It’s just not the same job anymore, not in the era of “branding.”

BA just had a pretty significant redesign and content retooling, some of which they've walked back at least a bit. I don't know if that's part of "it's just not the same job anymore." Or maybe Manuel just needed a changes.

But it's interesting that Manuel, who is as well connected as they come, picked the Twins (and Falvey) to pitch himself to. I suspect 30 teams would make room for him on their staff.

Notes, quotes and comment

Sir Rodney, back in Minnesota with his new heart

Another milestone in the recovery of Rod Carew, who survived a "widowmaker" heart attack 15 months again and a heart/kidney transplant six months ago: Cleared to fly, he got to Minnesota to throw out a first pitch Monday in a game that pitted the two teams that have retired his number, the Twins and the Angels.

So presumably he'll make it to Cooperstown for the Hall of Fame induction weekend later this month, and presumably the beloved bat magician will have a few more trips to Minnesota in the future.

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The Twins optioned out Kennys Vargas after the game and reactivated infielder Ehire Adrianza. They didn't want to send out a pitcher, considering all the short starts of late (Adalberto Mejia's seven-inning start Monday not withstanding), and Brian Dozier's back is apparently acting up, so another infielder might be needed.

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Baseball America's current issue names its high school player of the year (No. 3 overall pick Mackenzie Gore) and its All-American high school team. A notable omission in my eyes: Royce Lewis, the California prep infielder the Twins took first overall. He's not only absent from the first team, but the second and third as well, meaning BA found at least six high school middle infielders it deemed to have had better seasons.

This hardly means the Twins laid an egg last month by tabbing Lewis 1/1. (For what it's worth, the kid is putting on a laser show with the bat in a few dozen Gulf Coast League at-bats.) I just expected to see the first overall pick to be on the team.

Feelin' a draft

A few more mock drafts came across my view Thursday.

Baseball America's John Manuel unveiled his third mock, and once again had a different 1-1. This time it was Kyle Wright, right handed pitcher from Vanderbilt. In his first, it was high school right-hander Hunter Greene; in the second, Brendan McKay, a two-way star from Louisville.

Manuel:

Minnesota appears to be leaning toward McKay, but considering him as much now as a hitter as on the mound. Some evaluators agree that McKay has more looseness at the plate than he does on the mound, and may have more upside as a hitter, but that he’s a safer bet on the mound.

However, the best combination of upside and modest risk is Vanderbilt righthander Kyle Wright, who is the third player on the Twins’ list in addition to McKay and Greene. The Twins have been in hard on Wright’s last three starts, and in his last five, he’s struck out 51 and walks seven in 39.1 innings while posting a 1.14 ERA. He’s showing up to four plus pitches at times and trending toward being the No. 1 overall pick, as long as the price is right.

Aaron Fitt, once a colleague of Manuel's at Baseball America and now with D1baseball.com, posted his own mock Thursday, and while most of it is for subscribers. he also has Wright as the Twins likely pick. Two other mocks, from John Sickles of minorleagueball.com and Jay Jaffe of Sports Illustrated, had McKay going to the Twins, but without specifying a position (first base or pitcher).

To repeat what I said the other day: I'd be a fool to say I know more about these prospects than the Twins do. This is a high-stakes pick, and the Twins have to balance upside with risk, and they are doing their research. The Twins know everything I know about these guys, and a great deal more. I am underinformed.

One piece of information to consider is that McKay's reported velocity has fallen off in recent starts, and he's taken to throwing a cutter that is apparently relatively new to his arsenal of pitches. I feel pretty confident in this opinion: If the Twins take McKay, it should be as a hitter, not as a pitcher.

BA's first mock draft

We are more than three months away from the baseball draft, with a lot of college and high school ball to be played, even in the warm weather states.

But on Thursday John Manuel of Baseball America issued that publication's first mock draft of the season. And since the Twins have the first pick, his projections start there.

This piece is best viewed as an introduction to the candidates for high selection and the issues facing the talent evaluators than as a hard prediction of the draft itself. Manuel's forecast -- that the Twins will take prep pitcher/shortstop Hunter Greene -- may very well be correct come June; he's been viewed as a front-runner for that distinction virtually since the 2016 draft closed. But there's a lot of slips, slides and helium between now and then.

And, perhaps, skulduggery. An interesting phrase from Manuel regarding San Diego and the third selection: "Everyone expects the Padres and GM A.J. Preller to try to do what it takes to push Greene down to them at No. 3 ..."  My interpretation is that the Padres are likely to make quiet promises of X money if Greene and his camp discourage the Twins and Reds from selecting him. Greene is from the San Diego area.

BA's Top Ten Twins prospects

The dead tree edition of Baseball America that arrived at my house this week features the publication's Top Ten prospects lists for the five teams in the American League Central. The Twins portion is not yet online went online in limited form this morning (you need a subscription to see it all).

A few comments:

* The listing and commentary has a different byline this time around. Mike Bernardino of the Pioneer Press had done the Twins prospect list the past few years; this year BA staffer Michael Lananna gets the credit. As one who likes getting multiple perspectives on the Twins prospects, having BA be different than the PioPress is a positive.

* This list is necessarily much different from last winter's. Five of the 10 "graduated" to the majors (Byron Buxton, Jose Berrios, Max Kepler, Byung Ho Park, Jorge Polanco). Another (Nick Burdi) missed almost the entire season with injury and dropped out of the Top Ten. There are four holdovers.

* Nick Gordon, Number One on the new BA list, struggled against left-handed pitching in the Florida State League and committed 24 errors. Lananna writes of Gordon:

 ....some scouts outside of the organization view him as more of a second baseman. The Twins believe he has the aptitude, instincts and short-area quickness to stick at short, but he'll need to continue to put in the time to learn hitters, properly position himself and refine his footwork.

It's my belief that almost every shortstop prospect, especially those who can hit, has his ability to stick at the position questioned. As I recall, some 30 years ago there was some notion that Greg Gagne was better suited to third base; Gagne turned out to be a pretty good major league shortstop.

* The BA list has six pitchers: Left-handers Stephen Gonsalves (No. 2), Tyler Jay (5) and Adalberto Mejia (6) and righties Fernando Romero (4), Kohl Stewart (7) and Felix Jorge (8). Only Mejia, acquired at the trading deadline from the San Francisco Giants for Eduardo Nunez, is likely to be a factor on the 2017 staff.

* There are red flags with each of the six. Gonsalves' fastball command is suspect. Romero just had his first injury-free season in three years. Jay's description paints him as more likely a high-floor reliever than a successful starter. Stewart's strikeout rates remain subpar. Jorge and Mejia project as back-of-the-rotation starters.

From the Prospect Handbook: Raw numbers

The annual Baseball America Prospect Handbook showed up in my mailbox this weekend, and I figure to wring a few posts out of it.

BA ranks the Top 30 prospects for each organization in the book; buyers who order it directly from Baseball America get an additional pamphlet listing Prospect No. 31 for each team. (The Twins list was compiled by Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, a former BA writer himself.)

Of the 31, I have seen 14 play in person, mostly at Cedar Rapids but one at the Futures Game:
Bryon Buxton (1); Jose Berrios (2); Max Kepler (3); Nick Gordon (4); Jorge Polanco (6); Kohl Stewart (8); Nick Burdi (10); Alex Meyer (12); Adam Brett Walker (17); Jake Reed (20); Randy Rosario (22); Yorman Landa (23); Felix Jorge (24); Ryan Eades (31). I've also watched Stephen Gonsalves (9) and Mason Melotakis (28) throw in spring training, and Engelb Velma (18) take infield instruction from Tom Kelly on a Fort Myers back field. Most of the rest have been in the very lowest levels of the system or, in one case, playing in Korea.

Of the 31, 18 are pitchers; of the 18, six are left handed. Three of those southpaws -- Taylor Rogers (14), Rosario and Melotakis -- are on the 40-man roster and are at least theoretical candidates for the big league bullpen, although only Rogers has a realistic shot at coming north in April.

Of the 13 position players, one (Stuart Turner, 16) is a catcher. Three are listed as first basemen, including Byung Ho Park (7); one as a third baseman; five as shortstops; and three as outfielders. That may look like an awkward distribution, but a lot of minor league shortstops wind up reaching the majors at a different position. See, for example, Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier. There's a scouting rule of thumb that says you don't sign an amateur second baseman; if a player has the talent to play second in the majors, he's almost certainly a shortstop in amateur ball. At least one of the five shortstops on the BA list, Polanco, will most likely be a second baseman where ever he gets to have his major league career.

BA's Top 10 Twins prospects

The dead tree edition of Baseball America arrived in my mailbox Friday with Byron Buxton on the cover and the Top 10 prospects writeups for the AL Central teams inside. No link here because BA will roll the Twins stuff out online sometime next week.

The list:

1. Buxton (CF)
2. Jose Berrios (RHP)
3. Max Kepler (OF-1B)
4. Nick Gordon (SS)
5. Tyler Jay (LHP)
6. Jorge Polanco (SS-2B)
7. Byung Ho Park (1B)
8. Kohl Stewart (RHP)
9. Stephen Gonsalves (LHP)
10. Nick Burdi (RHP)

Buxton, who retained his rookie status for 2016 by two at-bats, was the obvious top choice; he's very likely to be BA's No. 1 overall prospect for the third straight winter when that list comes out in a few weeks. Nor are No. 2 or 3 -- Jose Berrios and Max Kepler -- startling selections. There are plenty of organizations for which either would be the headliner.

The list was compiled for BA by the Pioneer Press beat writer, Mike Berardino, A few comments on his rankings:

Gordon, who spent last year in low A, is above Polanco, who split 2015 between Double A and Triple A, this on the basis that Gordon is expected to stick at shortstop. I like both players, and I agree that Polanco is stretched as a shortstop. His problem right now, as for Berrios and Kepler, is the lack of obvious opportunity on the major league club.

Stewart, the No. 4 overall pick in 2013, the year the Cubs took Kris Bryant with the No. 3 pick, "slid" to No. 7 after seeing his strikeout rate decline in the Florida State League. Key sentence: "The Twins hope he'll start to miss more bats as he learns more about pitch sequencing."

Gonsalves, the Twins fourth-round pick in that draft, has essentially caught Stewart in the rankings. But Berardino figures Stewart will open 2016 in Double A while Gonsalves, who finished 2015 in high A Fort Myers, remains there for a few months.

Jay, college reliever, is likely to start in 2016, probably at Fort Myers. The Miracle figure to have some really interesting left-handed arms in the rotation this spring, with Gonsalves, Jay and Randy Rosario, who was added to the 40-man roster after a strong TJ-recovery season in Cedar Rapids. Of that trio, I assume Jay is both closest to the majors and has the highest ceiling but that Gonsalves is the most likely to be a major league starter.

Baseball America's Top 10 Twins prospects

Baseball America's current issue features the Top 10 prospects for the American League Central teams. The print copy hit my mailbox Wednesday; the on-line copy of the Twins list goes up Nov. 17.

So ... here's BA's list of the Twins top prospects, compiled (or at least described) by Pioneer Press beat write (and BA alum) Mike Berardino:

1. Bryon Buxton, of

   

   Miguel Sano missed
   the 2014 season after
   Tommy John surgery.

2. Miguel Sano, 3b
3. Jose Berrios, rhp
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp
5. Alex Meyer, rhp
6. Nick Gordon, ss
7. Nick Burdi, rhp
8. Jorge Polanco, ss/2b
9. Trevor May, rhp
10. Eddie Rosario, of/2b

Now, a few comments:

• This is largely last winter's list recycled. Only two names are different: Danny Santana (No. 9 last year) graduated to the majors, and Lewis Thorpe (No. 7), a teenage lefty, was good but not dominant in the Midwest League. They've been replaced by a pair of 2014 draftees, Gordon and Burdi.
• Burdi is an interesting name because he's purely a bullpen candidate. Pitchers who make these lists are usually starters, because starters are more valuable. He ended 2014 in High A; I can easily imagine him reaching Target Field this summer.
• The three right-handed starters who follow the Buxton and Sano megaduo were 3-4-5 last winter also, but in a different order. Then the list was Meyer, Stewart, Berrios. 
• Rosario dropped from No. 6 last time around to No. 10. He had a rough 2014, but he rebounded nicely in the Arizona Fall League, and I can imagine him pushing his way into the left field job this spring.

Baseball America's league prospect lists

Jose Berrios throws a bullpen session
during spring training. He opened the
year at High A Fort Myers and finished
with a start for Triple-A Rochester.

This will be a weird winter in the Twins prospect rankings, because their top two prospects, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, barely played this year.

That's something to keep in mind when perusing Baseball America's fresh top 10 prospects in each minor league. Neither Buxton nor Sano show on these lists, but that doesn't dampen the expectations for either.

The Twins prospects who did, as gleaned from the dead tree issue that arrived in my mailbox Monday (it includes writeups on the Top 10 players and a listing of the second 10, without a report):

International League (Triple A): Alex Meyer, right-handed pitcher, is ranked 8th. Trevor May, right-handed pitcher, is No. 17.

Eastern League (Double A): Nobody in the top 10. Kennys Vargas, first baseman, is No. 16.

Florida State League (High A): Jose Berrios, right-handed pitcher, is No. 6. Jorge Polanco, middle infielder, is No. 14.

Midwest League (Low A): Kohl Stewart, right-handed pitcher, is No. 6.

Appalachian League (Rookie): Nick Gordon, shortstop, is No. 2. Michael Cederoth, right-handed pitcher, is No. 17.

Gulf Coast League (Complex): Nobody in BA's top 20.

Comments: The written report on Gordon is the first I've seen suggesting that the No, 5 overall pick might not stick at shortstop. ... Cederoth was the Twins' third round pick last June, behind Gordon and Nick Burdi. Burdi split his season between the Midwest League and the Florida State League and probably didn't have enough playing time to be considered for either list. ... The written report on Stewart matches what I saw in the July game I attended: His mid-90s fastball was hittable. ...  We saw three of these players in the majors this summer: Vargas, May and Polanco.

BA's annual tools issue

Alex Meyer in spring training. The newest issue of
Baseball America says he has the best fastball and
best breaking ball in the International League.

Every year Baseball America runs a "Best Tools" feature. There are some interesting things about the Twins and their system in this year's model.

Notable from the major league listing is the lack of Twins. For the big leagues lists (one for each league), the magazine polls the major league managers and lists a top three for each tool. The only Twin listed is Phil Hughes, third for best control in the American League.

For all the bragging locally about Brian Dozier's defense, he wasn't listed among the top three defensive second basemen (Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano and Ian Kinsler were 1-2-3). And, no real surprise, Joe Mauer, traditionally listed in the strike-zone judgment category, is absent this year.

Things are a good bit better in the full-season minor league rankings, even with Bryon Buxton and Miguel Sano unlisted. For the minors, BA lists just the first place winner.

International League (Triple A): Alex Meyer is deemed to have the best fastball and the best breaking ball in the league. (But Marcus Stroman, already called up by Toronto, is named the best pitching prospect.) (Another parenthetical: former Twin Liam Hendriks wins for best control.)

Eastern League (Double A): New Britain was shut out.

Florida State League (high A): Adam Brett Walker, best power. Jose Berrios, best pitching prospect, best breaking ball, best changeup. Tim Shibuya, best control. Jorge Polanco, best defensive shortstop. Niko Goodrum, best infield arm. Doug Mientkiewicz, best manager

Midwest League (low A): Kohl Stewart, best pitching prospect. Nick Burdi, best fastball.

Much of these rankings are no real surprise. The one that jumped out at me was Polanco being deemed the best defensive shortstop in the FSL. He certainly struggled with the position early in the season. This suggests that the attempt to groom him as a shortstop may be successful.

Mid season prospect rankings

Jose Berrios or J.O. Berrios: By either name,
his stock has risen this season.

I'm a few days late to this party, but Baseball America this week released its midseason Top 50 prospects list. (Keith Law of ESPN is to publish his list after the All-Star break, and I suppose there will be others.)

Even though Byron Buxton had played just five games this year at the time the list was drawn up, he remains the top guy on the list. Even though Miguel Sano hadn't played at all, he's still in the top 10.

And this should not be any surprise whatsoever. Baseball America doesn't include the guys on major league rosters for the midseason list; that takes out the likes of Xander Bogearts, Gregory Polanco and Oscar Traveras. They also skip the 2014 draft picks. Carlos Correa has a broken leg, so if you want to downgrade Buxton and Sano for injury, you have to downgrade Correa also. Basically, the prospects who could arguably be ranked ahead of Buxton are either already in the majors or themselves injured.

BA listed five Twins prospects, Buxton (No. 1), Sano (9), Jose (or J.O.) Berrios (27), Kohl Stewart (30) and Alex Meyer (32).

It's the order of the three right-handed pitchers that intrigues me. The wintertime lists typically had Meyer ahead of Stewart with Berrios trailing not only those two but, in some cases, Eddie Rosario and/or Josmil Pinto.

Berrios was outstanding in high A ball; now the 2012 supplemental round pick gets to test his skill against Double A hitters. Stewart is holding his own, or a bit better, in low A. Meyer has been up and down at Triple A, and I infer that he's slipped behind Berrios and Stewart on the continuing question of the quality of his command.

Ranking Meyer 32nd is hardly dissing him. He was raked No. 45 by BA over the winter, after all. I'm more inclined to view the reordered ranking of the three pitchers as a good sign regarding Berrios than as a red flag on Meyer.

(This might be a good place to note that the Star Tribune's LaVelle Neal tweeted Tuesday that Meyer appears unlikely to get any major league time this year. The Twins are being careful about his innings after he missed a couple months last year.)

Baseball America's 32nd Twins prospect

Sean Gilmartin as the ace of the
Florida State Seminoles in 2011,
when Atlanta made him the 28th
overall pick in the draft.

As I noted in Friday's post, buyers who order Baseball America's Prospect Handbook annual through their website get a supplement with a 31st prospect for each team. (In a tribute to Spinal Tap, BA says it "made our Top 30 reports one louder.")

In truth, the Twins have 32 prospects profiled in the Handbook. Sean Gilmartin, the former first-round draft pick the Twins got from Atlanta in the Ryan Doumit deal in December, is listed with the Braves, as their No. 10 prospect.

Discovering that over the weekend led me to wonder where Gilmartin would fit in the Twins' rankings. BA graded the lefthander as a 45 Medium. A 45 pitcher translates as a backend starter or a middle reliever; the book's definition portion cites Kevin Corriea and Matt Guerrier as examples of 45 pitchers. The Medium means he "still has some work to do to turn tools into major-league caliber skills."

BA essentially regards five points of ceiling as equivalent to one step of risk, so a 45 Medium equals a 50 High equals a 55 Extreme.

The Twins prospect list has 50 Highs from No. 8 though No. 11 (Trevor May, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler), followed by a 55 Extreme (Fernando Romero), another 50 High (Stephen Gonsalves), two 45 mediums (Josmil Pinto and Mike Tonkin), three more 50 Highs, then another 45 Medium, then a 50 High ... all told there are 13 prospects for the Twins in the same bracket as Gilmartin.

Given the BA list, I would slot Gilmartin at No. 16, after Tonkin but ahead of Adam Brett Walker. BA might differ on that.

BA's Top 31 Twins prospects

Miguel Sano of the Twins system is
the cover boy for the Handbook this year.

My copy of Baseball America's annual Prospect Handbook arrived Thursday.

The publication's Top 10 Twins prospects was released last month, and I commented at the time about the absence of Josmil Pinto, who I figured should be no lower than No. 5.

He is No. 14 on BA's list. They're clearly unimpressed with Pinto's defensive skills behind the plate, and wary of the recurring shoulder issues that hampered him in midseason and during the winter.

Other items of note from a quick perusal of the Twins section:

• The Cedar Rapids club, in the Low A Midwest League, figures to have a loaded starting rotation. The Handbook projects Kohl Stewart (No. 4 on the Twins list), Lewis Thorpe (7), Fernando Romero (12), Stephen Gonsalves (13) and Felix Jorge (17) as Kernels starters this season. Plus there's Randy Rosario (22), who the book predicts will be used as a swingman.
• Nine of the 31 players BA ranks for the Twins (30 in the book and one more in the "bonus supplement" that goes to those who buy from the BA website) were signed out of the Dominican Republic,  not bad for an organization that only recently made much of an effort there. Two of them (Lewin Diaz, No. 21, and Roni Tapia, No. 29) have yet to play pro ball on any level.
• Bryon Buxton got a 75-Low grade. BA uses the 80-20 scale common in baseball scouting, with 80 being top of the chart, and adds a "risk factor" — Low, Medium, High and Extreme. Buxton's 75 is the high score in the book, and he's one of the very few Low risk players profiled. Cover boy Miguel Sano is a 70-Medium. 
• BA rates the Twins third in overall minor league talent, behind Pittsburgh and Boston.
• All four of BA's evaluators have the same top three overall prospects: Buxton No. 1, followed by Boston shortstop Xavier Bogearts and St. Louis outfielder Oscar Taveras. Sano rates from No. 4 to No. 10. Alex Meyer made two of the evaluators' top 50 list, Stewart one list.

Baseball America's Top Ten Twins prospects

The dead tree edition of Baseball America that arrived in my mailbox Monday features the Top Ten prospects list for the American League Central teams.

No surprise: Byron Buxton leads the Twins list. Indeed, a cover line makes fun of that: "Breaking: Byron Buxton Tops Twins List."

Baseball America
says J.O. Berrios
"ultimately profiles
as a No. 2 or No. 3
starter."

The full list:

1. Buxton, of
2. Miguel Sano, 3b
3. Alex Meyer, rhp
4. Kohl Stewart, rhp
5. J.O. Berrios, rhp
6. Eddie Rosario, 2b/of
7. Lewis Thorpe, lhp
8. Trevor May, rhp
9. Danny Santana, ss
10. Jorge Polanco, 2b/ss

The surprise, at least to me, is that Josmil Pinto is not on that list. A hard-hitting catcher who is at worse at the upper reaches of the minors ranks below, among others: a singles hitter who doesn't have a set position; a 17-year-old who projects as mid-rotation starter; a 24-year-old pitcher who repeated Double A with a high walk rate; a 23-year-old shortstop with a walk/strikeout ratio of 24/94; and a middle infielder who hasn't played high A ball yet.

They must be really unimpressed with Pinto's defensive chops.

I can't see ranking Pinto lower than fifth on this admittedly strong list of prospects, and I think a good case can be made that he should be fourth or even third.

This list includes five pitchers and five Latin players, three from the Dominican Republic (Sano, Santana and Polanco) and two from Puerto Rico (Berrios and Rosario), plus one from Australia (Thorpe). Two of the 10 were acquirred in trade (Meyer and May).

Minor league all-stars

Josmil Pinto
is the catcher on
Baseball America's
minor-league
all-star team.

The dead-tree edition of the Baseball America issue in which Byron Buxton was named minor league player of the year arrived in my mailbox this week. Buxton's honor was announced almost two weeks ago, so the cover story was hardly a shocker.

I was briefly surprised by the cover image, however — Buxton running the bases in the Twins' major league uniform. It must have been made during his one-day spring-training call up back in March.

The same issue includes BA's minor league all-star team from all levels — four Twins farmhands are among the nine position players — and its classification all-stars, selected from the six levels of minor league ball.

The four on the overall all-star team: Catcher Josmil Pinto, first baseman Chris Colabello, third baseman Miguel Sano and center fielder Buxton. That's a pretty impressive share of the roster, and it would be carping (if accurate) to note that none of them are pitchers. Yes, the Twins need pitchers, but there are plenty of holes in the lineup too.

Colabello is the one guy on the roster who isn't a prominent prospect. He's also by far the oldest player on either the first or second teams on BA's list. There's no question that he had a big year in Triple A — .352/.427/.639 — but major league pitchers have carved him up pretty well.

The Twins were well represented on the classification teams as well.

Triple A: Colabello, who was the Triple A player of the year.
Double A: Pinto
High A: Sano and Buxton, with Sano the High A player of the year.
Low A: Buxton and outfielder Adam Brett Walker, with Buxton the Low A player of the year.
Short-season: The Twins don't have a short-season affiliate.
Rookie: Shut out. (Kohl Stewart, the Twins' first round pick, didn't have enough innings to qualify).

And here I don't think it's unfair to note the lack of pitching on the list. BA is saying that on no level of the minors did the Twins have one of the four best starters or the best reliever. The Twins farm system had a very good year with position players, less so with pitchers.

One final prospects list

Baseball America on Tuesday released its Top 100 prospects list. Six Twins prospects are on the list -- Minnesota was one of three organizations with six, and nobody had more -- and it was the same six who top everybody's Twins prospects lists, with only the order in question:

Miguel Sano, 3B (9)
Byron Buxton, OF (10)
Oswaldo Arcia, OF (41)
Alex Meyer, RHP (59)
Kyle Gibson, RHP (68)
Aaron Hicks, OF (72)

Somewhere on the outside looking in is Eddie Rosario, who was likely held back by concerns over his defensive position; J.O. Berrios, who has only a couple dozen professional innings under his belt; and Trevor May, who has to demonstrate that he has command of the strike zone to get back on the list.

BA, as I've said repeatedly, is a good reflection of the industry consensus. If BA ranks Arcia that far above Hicks, it indicates that the two are generally seen that way -- that Arcia, a corner outfielder who figures to hit in the middle of the lineup, is more valued that Hicks, a center fielder who profiles as a top-of-the-order guy.

The Twins have a well-regarded stockpile of hitting talent in their minors, and some pitchers of promise, but little of it figures to be a factor in 2013.

Hicks is the most likely to matter in the coming season; he may well open the season in center field, even though that would mean skipping Triple A. Gibson should get some time in the big league rotation this year, but his innings will be limited as they monitor his reconstructed elbow. Sano and Buxton, of course, are high-ceiling players scheduled for A ball this year, as are Rosario and Berrios -- and, for that matter, Max Kepler, the consensus No. 10 prospect in the system.

Somewhere between the Hicks-Gibson "they matter this year" duo and the A ball buys are Meyer,Mays and Arcia, who all got at least some Double A time last year. They might rise to the majors at some point in 2013, or they might not.

Arcia is, at the moment, blocked by Josh Willingham and the Chris Parmelee/Justin Morneau duo; since Arcia has yet to play in Triple A, the Twins aren't in any hurry to unblock his route to the majors. Arcia's arrival depends as much on what moves the Twins make with the veteran sluggers as with how well he performs in the minors,

Meyer and Mays are in a different space. The Twins need quality starters, and they have as high a ceiling as anybody in the organization. Unlike Gibson, there are no physical restrictions; unlike Barrios, they are advanced in their development. If they perform, they'll move up. There is nobody ahead of them, majors or minors, who should be allowed to block them.

Which is another reason to expect the Twins to ultimately regret the $10 million committed to Kevin Correia.