Feeling a draft: Morning edition

It's finally draft day.

There's been a lot of rumor and speculation, but when the draft gets going (6 p.m. CDT), I think everybody's going to play it straight. This is not a year to get clever. Houston will take either Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray, whoever they like more (or whoever will sign for less, which isn't a bad tiebreaker); the Cubs will take whichever one the Astros don't; Colorado will take Kris Bryant; and the Twins will take Kohl Stewart.

That's what the conventional wisdom says should happen, and what I expect will happen. If Houston tries to reprise last year's financial sleight of hand, it will be a mistake. This isn't as deep a draft class as last year's; there's no real need to save big money early in the draft to spend later, because the later picks aren't worth passing on the few top talents available.

That's how I read the available information, at least. The Astros may see things differently. And if they're out to prove how tricky they are, it's possible that one of the Appel/Gray duo will fall to the Twins. Pretty much everyone has the Twins zeroed in on Stewart, but it's not easy for me to imagine the Twins passing on one of the big two college arms to take the high schooler.

We'll find out tonight.