The Twins swept the Kansas City Royals over the weekend, which is good. A team on a 100-win pace, as the Twins are, should beat a team on a 100-loss pace, as the Royals are.
But Cleveland swept the Angels as well, so the Twins didn't widen their margin over the weekend. And the Twins have the tougher matchup next with the Atlanta Braves; Cleveland plays Cincinnati.
The bad news is that since my last post the Twins have put three players on the injured list.
Byron Buxton is the most troublesome of the injuries; he's likely to miss most if not all of August. In a very real way, Buxton is the most important player on this team, and he's simply got to stop running into walls. Nothing good comes of it.
I'm less concerned about the two pitchers, Michael Pineda and Sam Dyson. Pineda had a brief stint on the IL earlier in the season. Reading between the lines, the first stint was essentially precautionary, and it sounds like this one is also. "Big Mike" is on his first full season back after Tommy John surgery, and even though he's a free agent after the season the Twins are handling him with some care.
He's been pitching well, too, with an ERA of 2.23 over his last six starts.
Dyson ... well, the eyebrows rise when a player comes in a midseason trade, has two poor outings and goes on the IL. The Twins appear to believe that the IL stint will be essentially the mimimal 10-days. Dyson is said to believe he's able to pitch, but the Twins want to give him a break and get the soreness out of his arm.
So Dyson and Pineda miss these next two series on the homestand, Atlanta and Cleveland. It's early August, but this could be a critical week.
Monday, August 5, 2019
Friday, August 2, 2019
A bad first impression
Sam Dyson arrived in Miami in the middle of Thursday's game. Rocco Baldelli decided to ask him to pitch the ninth with a three-run lead. He got nobody out, and by the time Taylor Rogers got the Twins out of the inning, the Marlins had tied it.
It's an easy second-guess, and have at it. I won't join in the piling on. I knew Dyson was getting the ball in a save situation all along. He'll be OK.
What I also know is that there's no way Rogers should pitch today; he pitched in every game of the Miami series. Fortunately, the Twins are playing Kansas City. It would be a good day to get a lot of runs and a long start.
As if there's a bad day to get those things, right?
It's an easy second-guess, and have at it. I won't join in the piling on. I knew Dyson was getting the ball in a save situation all along. He'll be OK.
What I also know is that there's no way Rogers should pitch today; he pitched in every game of the Miami series. Fortunately, the Twins are playing Kansas City. It would be a good day to get a lot of runs and a long start.
As if there's a bad day to get those things, right?
Thursday, August 1, 2019
Most of what they needed
My wish list for the Twins in the midseason trade period was a couple of bullpen arms to help Taylor Rogers in the late innings.
They got that in Sergio Romo (on July 27) and Sam Dyson (on Wednesday).
Neither is left-handed, so that box went unchecked. And the Twins were apparently fishing in starting-pitcher waters as well but came up empty there.
I'm fine with that. The 2019 Twins aren't in need of a back-of-the-rotation starter, and at most three starters good enough to push Kyle Gibson down in the playoff rotation moved -- Zack Greinke, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Greinke had the Twins on his no-trade clause, and I can't imagine Cleveland trading Bauer to the team they're chasing. That leaves Stroman, and I'm not convinced he's better than Gibson.
A deal for a controllable starter would have given the front office a head start on rebuilding the 2020 rotation, but they'll have to deal with that problem in the off season.
For here and now, the Twins have a stiffer bullpen than they had coming out of the All-Star break.
This Fangraphs piece calls Dyson the best reliever moved at the deadline this year. He's not a big name (like Craig Kimbrel), but he's also not a ego trip who wants to be used only in one-inning save situations (like Kimbrel). He and Romo are an upgrade over the departed Blake Parker as right-handed complements to Rogers.
I view the Twins bullpen as three groups:
They got that in Sergio Romo (on July 27) and Sam Dyson (on Wednesday).
Neither is left-handed, so that box went unchecked. And the Twins were apparently fishing in starting-pitcher waters as well but came up empty there.
I'm fine with that. The 2019 Twins aren't in need of a back-of-the-rotation starter, and at most three starters good enough to push Kyle Gibson down in the playoff rotation moved -- Zack Greinke, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman. Greinke had the Twins on his no-trade clause, and I can't imagine Cleveland trading Bauer to the team they're chasing. That leaves Stroman, and I'm not convinced he's better than Gibson.
A deal for a controllable starter would have given the front office a head start on rebuilding the 2020 rotation, but they'll have to deal with that problem in the off season.
For here and now, the Twins have a stiffer bullpen than they had coming out of the All-Star break.
The @Twins announced today that they have acquired RHP Sam Dyson from the Giants in exchange for minor league outfielder Jaylin Davis and right-handed pitchers Prelander Berroa and Kai-Wei Teng.— Dustin Morse (@morsecode) July 31, 2019
Dyson will join the #MNTwins tomorrow in Miami.
This Fangraphs piece calls Dyson the best reliever moved at the deadline this year. He's not a big name (like Craig Kimbrel), but he's also not a ego trip who wants to be used only in one-inning save situations (like Kimbrel). He and Romo are an upgrade over the departed Blake Parker as right-handed complements to Rogers.
I view the Twins bullpen as three groups:
- The late-inning guys: Dyson, Rogers, Romo
- The middle men: Tyler Duffey, Ryne Harper, Trevor May
- The kids: Lewis Thorpe and Cody Stashak (I'm assuming Sean Poppen will be demoted today to make room for Dyson).
I'm good with that bullpen. I'll be even more satisfied if Thorpe emerges as a second lefty weapon.
Wednesday, July 31, 2019
The Bauer trade
The Twins did not make a trade Tuesday, the last full day before the trading deadline. Cleveland, now three games back of Minnesota, reportedly did -- a complex three-way deal that brought the Tribe bulk players and cost them Trevor Bauer, their most reliable starting pitcher. (Announcement expected today.)
Puig and Reyes are right-hand hitting outfielders, although calling Reyes an outfielder is apparently a bit generous; the expectation is that Reyes will be mostly a designated hitter for Cleveland. Allen is a left-handed pitcher who has struggled in his minimal major league time to date but is seen as a potential piece of a starting rotation; it's quite possible he'll be asked to fill the vacated rotation slot. Nova and Moss are minor leaguers who are unlikely to matter this season for Cleveland, alhtough Moss is in Double A.
It's quite obvious what Cleveland did: They traded from their strength -- starting pitching -- to shore up an obvious weakness -- their outfield hasn't hit. Puig and Reyes have combined for 49 homers this season.
Puig is the bigger name, but Reyes is the bigger bat. Puig's OPS+ with Cincinnati this year is 98, meaning that he's been slightly below league average at the dish. Reyes's OPS+ is 121. A good bit of the difference is that Cincinnati is a far better place to hit than is San Diego. But Puig is a good defensive outfielder.
Cleveland deepened its lineup with this trade. The Indians also weakened their rotation. Unless and until Corey Kubler or Carlos Carrasco return to the rotation and to form, Cleveland now has Mike Clevenger and a collection of young (but talented) staters who have never made it through a full season.
Conclusion: Cleveland got more for Bauer than the Blue Jays did for Marcus Stroman. But because they traded from their major league core to get Reyes and Puig, I'm not sure they actually got better for 2019.
The Trade.— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 31, 2019
Indians get: Franmil Reyes, Logan Allen, Yasiel Puig, Victor Nova, Scott Moss.
Reds get: Trevor Bauer.
Padres get: Taylor Trammell.
Puig and Reyes are right-hand hitting outfielders, although calling Reyes an outfielder is apparently a bit generous; the expectation is that Reyes will be mostly a designated hitter for Cleveland. Allen is a left-handed pitcher who has struggled in his minimal major league time to date but is seen as a potential piece of a starting rotation; it's quite possible he'll be asked to fill the vacated rotation slot. Nova and Moss are minor leaguers who are unlikely to matter this season for Cleveland, alhtough Moss is in Double A.
It's quite obvious what Cleveland did: They traded from their strength -- starting pitching -- to shore up an obvious weakness -- their outfield hasn't hit. Puig and Reyes have combined for 49 homers this season.
Puig is the bigger name, but Reyes is the bigger bat. Puig's OPS+ with Cincinnati this year is 98, meaning that he's been slightly below league average at the dish. Reyes's OPS+ is 121. A good bit of the difference is that Cincinnati is a far better place to hit than is San Diego. But Puig is a good defensive outfielder.
Cleveland deepened its lineup with this trade. The Indians also weakened their rotation. Unless and until Corey Kubler or Carlos Carrasco return to the rotation and to form, Cleveland now has Mike Clevenger and a collection of young (but talented) staters who have never made it through a full season.
Conclusion: Cleveland got more for Bauer than the Blue Jays did for Marcus Stroman. But because they traded from their major league core to get Reyes and Puig, I'm not sure they actually got better for 2019.
Tuesday, July 30, 2019
Loek van Mil and the mystery of super-tall pitchers
The news Monday that former Twins farmhand Loek van Mil had died awoke the usual sense of dismay when someone dies at an absurdly early age (van Mil was 34).
It also led me to ponder this connumdrum: As a general rule, the bigger the pitcher, the faster the pitches. But with the obvious exception of Randy Johnson, that advantage seems to vanish once the pitcher gets above 6-foot-8.
Van Mil is believed to the the tallest pitcher in the history of professional baseball at 7-foot-1. He never made it to the majors. He pitched in the Twins system from 2006 into 2010, when he was traded at the deadline to the Angels. From there he bounced to the Cleveland and Cincinnati organizations; he concluded his career in the States back with the Twins organization. He also pitched quite a bit in the Australian winter league and for the Dutch national team.
He was an easy guy to pick out during spring training on the Twins minor league side; he was the guy head-and-shoulders, and sometimes more, above everybody else. (Photos of him with Chris Cates, a 5-foor-3 shortstop who was frequently van Mil's teammate in the low minors, looked almost fake.)
Baseball America's coverage of van Mil generally used some variation of the thought that he needed "to pitch like a 7-footer" -- meaning he needed to rely on his fastball and use those long levers to generate greater velocity.
The thing is, other than Johnson, super-tall pitchers generally haven't been able to do that -- or if they could, to command that velocity.
Jon Rauch, 6-11, was a high velocity starting prospect with the White Sox system. An injury turned him into a reliever with diminished speed. He got 11 years in the majors, some of them with the Twins. He is probably the tallest player in major league history.
Chris Young, 6-10, was probably the most accomplished super-tall starter other than the Big Unit (also 6-10). He had four seasons of double-digit wins, and started and won a World Series game for Kansas City in 2015. He had a career-threatening arm injury in the middle of his major league career and never threw 200 innings in a season.
Mark Hendrickson was a 6-9 lefty who bounced around the majors for 10 seasons without notable success or a notable fastball. His career ERA was 5.03, although in fairness to him, it was generally with bad teams.
Eric Hillman, 6-10, ptiched in three seasons for the Mets, going 4-14 with a 4.85 ERA. He had very low walk and strikeout rates in his brief major league tenure.
All of which leads me to the conclusion that van Mil did indeed pitch like a 7-footer. It was Randy Johnson who didn't fit that mold.
It also led me to ponder this connumdrum: As a general rule, the bigger the pitcher, the faster the pitches. But with the obvious exception of Randy Johnson, that advantage seems to vanish once the pitcher gets above 6-foot-8.
Van Mil is believed to the the tallest pitcher in the history of professional baseball at 7-foot-1. He never made it to the majors. He pitched in the Twins system from 2006 into 2010, when he was traded at the deadline to the Angels. From there he bounced to the Cleveland and Cincinnati organizations; he concluded his career in the States back with the Twins organization. He also pitched quite a bit in the Australian winter league and for the Dutch national team.
He was an easy guy to pick out during spring training on the Twins minor league side; he was the guy head-and-shoulders, and sometimes more, above everybody else. (Photos of him with Chris Cates, a 5-foor-3 shortstop who was frequently van Mil's teammate in the low minors, looked almost fake.)
Baseball America's coverage of van Mil generally used some variation of the thought that he needed "to pitch like a 7-footer" -- meaning he needed to rely on his fastball and use those long levers to generate greater velocity.
The thing is, other than Johnson, super-tall pitchers generally haven't been able to do that -- or if they could, to command that velocity.
Jon Rauch, 6-11, was a high velocity starting prospect with the White Sox system. An injury turned him into a reliever with diminished speed. He got 11 years in the majors, some of them with the Twins. He is probably the tallest player in major league history.
Chris Young, 6-10, was probably the most accomplished super-tall starter other than the Big Unit (also 6-10). He had four seasons of double-digit wins, and started and won a World Series game for Kansas City in 2015. He had a career-threatening arm injury in the middle of his major league career and never threw 200 innings in a season.
Mark Hendrickson was a 6-9 lefty who bounced around the majors for 10 seasons without notable success or a notable fastball. His career ERA was 5.03, although in fairness to him, it was generally with bad teams.
Eric Hillman, 6-10, ptiched in three seasons for the Mets, going 4-14 with a 4.85 ERA. He had very low walk and strikeout rates in his brief major league tenure.
All of which leads me to the conclusion that van Mil did indeed pitch like a 7-footer. It was Randy Johnson who didn't fit that mold.
Monday, July 29, 2019
The Sergio Romo trade
The Twins on Saturday picked up veteran reliever Sergio Romo from the Miami Marlins in an odd prospect trade.
The Twins not only got Romo, the one established major leaguer in the deal, but a decent pitching prospect in Chris Vallimont and a player to be named later..
The cost was Lewin Diaz, a left-left first baseman who is having a big 2019 season after a poor 2018. Miami must have really wanted Diaz, who has split this season between high A Fort Myers and Double A Pensacola, to include two throw-ins.
Perhaps this trade will be known down the road as the Lewin Diaz trade, but the reality is that Diaz is Rule 5 eligible and the Twins were likely to have trouble finding a spot on the 40-man roster for him in the offseason. Yes, incumbent first baseman C.J. Cron is a free-agent-to-be, but the Twins have plenty of first base options who rank ahead of Diaz.
As I said in the Monday print column, Romo, 36, doesn't truly check my boxes for the Twins bullpen priorities. He's not left-handed, and he's not a power arm who can trade off long saves with Taylor Rogers.
But he helps. His high-grade slider makes him particularly tough on right-handed hitters, he has a track record of performing in a variety of relief roles, and he's not likely to be scared by pitching under pressure. The man picked up three saves in the 2012 World Series, after all.
The Twins DFA'd Carlos Torres, who never got into a game for the Twins, to make room for Romo.
The Twins not only got Romo, the one established major leaguer in the deal, but a decent pitching prospect in Chris Vallimont and a player to be named later..
The cost was Lewin Diaz, a left-left first baseman who is having a big 2019 season after a poor 2018. Miami must have really wanted Diaz, who has split this season between high A Fort Myers and Double A Pensacola, to include two throw-ins.
Perhaps this trade will be known down the road as the Lewin Diaz trade, but the reality is that Diaz is Rule 5 eligible and the Twins were likely to have trouble finding a spot on the 40-man roster for him in the offseason. Yes, incumbent first baseman C.J. Cron is a free-agent-to-be, but the Twins have plenty of first base options who rank ahead of Diaz.
As I said in the Monday print column, Romo, 36, doesn't truly check my boxes for the Twins bullpen priorities. He's not left-handed, and he's not a power arm who can trade off long saves with Taylor Rogers.
But he helps. His high-grade slider makes him particularly tough on right-handed hitters, he has a track record of performing in a variety of relief roles, and he's not likely to be scared by pitching under pressure. The man picked up three saves in the 2012 World Series, after all.
The Twins DFA'd Carlos Torres, who never got into a game for the Twins, to make room for Romo.
Friday, July 26, 2019
Notes, quotes and comment
Sean Poppen popped back onto the Twins roster as the eighth bullpen arm and picked up the final two innings of Thursday's blowout win in Chicago.
A roster move of more significance: Byron Buxton was reactivated, with Jake Cave optioned out. Buxton started in center and hit a pair of doubles.
The Twins are now 49-23 this season when Buxton starts, 13-17 when he doesn't.
---
The Twins made an exceedingly minor deal on Thursday, shipping minor league catcher Brian Navaretto to the Yankees in a cash deal.
Navaretto is a good defensive catcher with a great arm who hasn't hit at any level. (He was hitting .177 in Double A this year, which ought to get one sent back to high-A.) The Yankees needed somebody to catch in Double A after the domino effect of putting Gary Sanchez on the injured list after their series in Minnesota, and the Twins wanted to open up the slot at Double A for Ryan Jeffers, their second-round pick last year.
I've noted this repeatedly, but I'll hit it one more time: The Twins in the 2013 draft took three catchers in the first nine rounds: Stuart Turner in the third, Navaretto in the sixth and Mitch Garver in the ninth. (Turner and Garver were collegians, Navaretto taken out of high school).
The Reds took Turner in the Rule 5 draft and carried him on their roster for the full 2017 season only to outright him the following spring, which made his Rule 5 season rather pointless. He not only hasn't been back in the majors since, he's played so little in Triple A that I suspect he's had injuries.
So two of the three are out of the organization. But I think Garver has more than made up for the misses on the two higher-drafted backstops.
---
Both Jeffers and Trevor Larnach, their first-rounder from 2018, are now at Penascola. They're moving up the ladder at a pretty rapid clip.
Jeffers' numbers at Fort Myers (the Twins high-A affiliate) aren't nearly as impressive as Larnach's, but he's a catcher. Presumably part of the promotion is that he's improving his play behind the dish, which was seen as a bit suspect at the time of the 2018 draft.
Larnach's promotion hints that the lefty-hitting outfielder might be used as a trade chip in a pitching trade over the next few days. I'm not automatically opposed, but of course, it depends on who the Twins get in said deal.
A roster move of more significance: Byron Buxton was reactivated, with Jake Cave optioned out. Buxton started in center and hit a pair of doubles.
The Twins are now 49-23 this season when Buxton starts, 13-17 when he doesn't.
---
The Twins made an exceedingly minor deal on Thursday, shipping minor league catcher Brian Navaretto to the Yankees in a cash deal.
Navaretto is a good defensive catcher with a great arm who hasn't hit at any level. (He was hitting .177 in Double A this year, which ought to get one sent back to high-A.) The Yankees needed somebody to catch in Double A after the domino effect of putting Gary Sanchez on the injured list after their series in Minnesota, and the Twins wanted to open up the slot at Double A for Ryan Jeffers, their second-round pick last year.
I've noted this repeatedly, but I'll hit it one more time: The Twins in the 2013 draft took three catchers in the first nine rounds: Stuart Turner in the third, Navaretto in the sixth and Mitch Garver in the ninth. (Turner and Garver were collegians, Navaretto taken out of high school).
The Reds took Turner in the Rule 5 draft and carried him on their roster for the full 2017 season only to outright him the following spring, which made his Rule 5 season rather pointless. He not only hasn't been back in the majors since, he's played so little in Triple A that I suspect he's had injuries.
So two of the three are out of the organization. But I think Garver has more than made up for the misses on the two higher-drafted backstops.
---
Both Jeffers and Trevor Larnach, their first-rounder from 2018, are now at Penascola. They're moving up the ladder at a pretty rapid clip.
Jeffers' numbers at Fort Myers (the Twins high-A affiliate) aren't nearly as impressive as Larnach's, but he's a catcher. Presumably part of the promotion is that he's improving his play behind the dish, which was seen as a bit suspect at the time of the 2018 draft.
Larnach's promotion hints that the lefty-hitting outfielder might be used as a trade chip in a pitching trade over the next few days. I'm not automatically opposed, but of course, it depends on who the Twins get in said deal.
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