Friday, August 31, 2018

Trip to Cedar Rapids: The catchers

The Twins have twice in recent years, once under each front office regime, made concerted efforts to bolster the catching depth in the organization.

Mitch Garver, who is as close as the 2018 Twins have to a primary catcher, is the product of the Terry Ryan regime's effort. Five years ago the Twins used three picks in the first nine rounds on catchers. Stuart Turner (3rd round) is out of the organization, and Brian Navaretto (6th round) is at Double A Chattanooga, where he is having his best offensive season to date, which isn't saying much.

The Falvine regime made another push on backstops starting during last offseason and continuing though the draft. Two of those additions are on the Cedar Rapids roster right now, and I saw each behind the dish.

Ryan Jeffers was the Twins' second-round selection in June. Like Garver and Turner, he's a college draftee (North Carolina -Wilmington); like Garver, he is viewed as a bat-first backstop. 

When Garver came through Cedar Rapids, he hit third for the Kernels. Jeffers hit third in both games I saw, first as a catcher and then as the designated hitter.

His hitting lines in his two months or so as a pro are impressive, and he went 4-for-9 in the two games. The receiving skills are presumably a work in progress. 

Jeffers is big, and he doesn't appear to be as able as Joe Mauer was in his catching days to fold that big body into a low target. With no runners on, Jeffers frequently set up with one leg extended out to the side, a techinque I first saw used by Tony Pena some 30 years ago.

I saw one pitch elude him on Monday, a delivery low and to the glove side that may have been a cross-up and definitely wasn't located where Jeffers was set up. I don't know how to apportion the blame for that one.

David Banuelos had no such issues when he caught on Wednesday. But he also got no hits. Both fit the scouting report on him when the Twins got him from Seattle last November for international pool cap space during the Shohei Ohtani derby. He's been at Cedar Rapids all season, where both his on-base percentage and his slugging percentage are below .300. 

Others of some note in the Twins' catching-acquistion spree:

Chris Williams (8th round out of Clemson) has played strictly first base at Elizabethton, a level below Cedar Rapids, where he has hit 15 homers. That he hasn't caught yet as a pro may be significant.

Trevor Casanova (13th round out of El Camino College in California) is also at E-Town and putting up pretty solid numbers at the plate.

Jangison Villalobos, who was essentially a throw-in in the Phil Hughes salary dump during the season, is playing for the Twins complex team in the Gulf Coast League. He's old for that level, and I don't expect he'll ever get to Cedar Rapids.




Thursday, August 30, 2018

Trip to Cedar Rapids: Kernels 6, Burlington Bees 2

The Kernels program lists five outfielders, at least four of whom would logically be players the organization wants to see get substancial playing time.

All five started at least once in the two games I saw on this trip, with probably the top two -- Trevor Larnach and Akil Baddoo -- starting both games, in right field and centerfield respectively. Trey Cabbage and Gabriel Maciel each started a game in left, and Jacob Pearson was the DH in one game.

A few observations:

Larnach, the Twins' first-round draft pick (20th overall) this year, has split this initial pro season almost evenly between Cedar Rapids and Elizabethton. Neither level should be a great challenge for a college star from a big-time program. Larnach went 0-for-8 in the two games with a walk and a stolen base. He did have three hard-hit outs over the two games to left field. At 21, he is the oldest of the group of five, and the one with the least professional experience.

Baddoo's stat line is intriguing. He's hitting about .240, which isn't impressive, but his on-base percentage is around .350 and his slugging percentage is over .400. He hit leadoff in both games, and like Larnach went hitless (0-for-8 with a walk and two steals). He's quite fast and made a nice catch at the wall Wednesday night. He's also just 19, quite young for the league.

Pearson came to the Twins from the Angels last offseason when Anaheim was scraping up all the international pool money it could for the Shohei Ohtani derby. His skill set appears to be akin to Baddoo, but my sense -- and the stat line supports this -- is that the tools are pitched at a lower level than Baddoo's. He went 1-for-2 in his one start with a walk, an RBI and a run scored.

Cabbage was taken in the fourth round of the 2015 draft as a third baseman. He's now splitting time between left field, right field and first base. He's gotten more playing time this season than in the previous three, and he's hit a little better, but probably not enough to merit being taken serious as a prospect. This is also the first season in which he hasn't been notably young for the level of competition. He went 1-for-4 in the game I saw him play with a double and a run scored.

Maciel was part of the return from Arizona for Eduardo Escobar last month. He really impressed me Wednesday night. He went 3-for-4, which is nice, but what struck me was how he went 3-for-4. First at-bat, hitting left-handed, he pulled a solid single. Second at-bat, still hitting left-handed, he laid down a perfect bunt. Third trip, hitting right-handed against a lefty reliever and facing a sharp shift with a man on second, he was clearly trying to go to right and, after fouling several pitches off to the first base side, grounded one through the vacancy. It was a key piece of a four-run inning that put the Kernels ahead to stay. (He struck out in his final trip.)

Like Baddoo, he's 19. Unlike the other four, who all hit left handed, he's a switch hitter. He made a nice running catch in left, and appears to be fast enough to play center. He hasn't hit for much power in the Midwest League (he played for Kane County before the trade), but that can come. 

This is, of course, low-A ball. None of them are on the cusp of the majors, although Larnach may be on a fast track. They have genuine tools. The challenge is learning to use them.

Tuesday, August 28, 2018

Trip to Cedar Rapids: Off day

The Twins had expected to have Michael Pineda ready to step into the starting rotation next month. They wanted to spend the rest of the season looking at Adalberto Mejia.

Neither will happen.

Pineda, as you may remember, was signed to a two-year deal with an eye to 2019; he was to (and did) spend the season rehabbing his right elbow after Tommy John surgery. That went well enough that for the past month or so it was assumed that he would pitch in September. Instead, he has a meniscus tear. He might pitch winter ball. 

This, really, changes nothing about Pineda and 2019. He was expected to fill one of the rotation slots next year, and he's still expected to fill a rotation slot.

The same cannot be said of Mejia's injury, described as nerve irritation. The lefty is out of options after this season, so he's either on the active roster in 2019 or waived.

He's had a good season: 3.27 ERA in Triple A, 2.01 in five appearances in the majors. Hidden by the sparkling major league ERA: he's had just one appearance of more than 15 outs, his walk-to-strikeout ratio isn't good, and his strikeout rate is low.

But that's just 22.1 innings. The walk and strikeout rates in Triple A were strong. The innings per outing, not so much.

So Mejia really needed this opportunity. The Twins called him up in mid July to give him a chance to show, if not the Twins then somebody else, that he's capable of being a useful rotation piece. Instead, he's going to hit the offseason not only without that opportunity, but with a possibly significant health question.

Trip to Cedar Rapids: Kernels 5, Cougars 1

The Cedar Rapids Kernels -- the Twins affilate in the Midwest League and the organization's entry point to full-season professional ball -- are wrapping up the 2018 regular season. But they'll have at least a few more games after their schedule ends this weekend; on Monday night the Kernels clinched the second half divisional title, so they'll be in the playoffs again.

The striking part about this to me is that they put up a better record after their top-shelf prospects -- Royce Lewis, Alex Kiriloff and Brusdar Graterol are all easily among the top five talents in the organization -- were moved up to Fort Myers and the Florida State League.

That kind of player movement is pretty standard in low A. But that they got better after having to replace so many top talents speaks to the developing depth of the organization.

Four of Monday's starters were 2018 draftees: second baseman Michael Helman (11th round, Texas A&M); catcher Ryan Jeffers (2nd round, North Carolina-Wilmington); right fielder Trevor Larnach (1st round, Oregon State); and shortstop Michael Davis (24th round, Texas Tech). The first three listed hit 2-3-4; Davis was the No. 8 hitter, but he homered and singled for three RBIs. His one out was also well hit.

But the star for the Kernels was starting pitcher Randy Dobnak, who allowed one run on three hits in seven innings. Dobnak was signed as an undrafted free agent last summer after pitching college ball for a D-II school in West Virginia, and he leads the Kernels in wins and innings.

The rest of his stat line isn't that impressive. He's allowed more hits than innings pitched, and his strikeout rate is the worst of the 22 pitchers who've taken the mound for the Kernels at least three times. He's old for the league as well.

What Dobnak does do well is pound the strike zone. And that has worked well for him at this level. The odds are against him -- he's not going to get as many chances as Kohl Stewart has, because the organization hasn't much invested in him -- but he's nowhere near as excruiating to watch work as, say, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Pelfrey.

And on Monday night, when the game ended, he got to spray some sparkling beverage on his teammates outside the dugout.

Monday, August 27, 2018

Even a 'Caveman' can do it

Jake Cave, who wore "Caveman" as his uniform nickname during Players' Weekend. did something unusual Sunday: He walked three times. This increased his walk total by 33 percent on the no-longer-young season and gave him 12 on the year.

Cave has gotten fairly consistent playing time against right-handed pitching for about two and a half months while Byron Buxton languishes on the disabled list/minor league rehab. Cave has shown genuine power at the plate -- slugging percentage .452 (all nunbers entering Sunday's play) -- and some significant flaws.

The relative lack of walks is a signficant one. Cave's batting average (around .265) is acceptable; his on-base percentage (.303) is not. He has had a few TOOTBLANs -- Thrown Out On The Bases Like A Nincompoop -- which is hardly unique on this club. And his defense in centerfield was poor enough that in recent weeks he's played right field, with Max Kepler getting center field chores.

One positive in the field: Cave picked up a pair of outfield assists Saturday and another on Sunday, giving him five on the season, four in his limited time playing right field.

The flaws make him a reserve outfielder who is currently getting too much playing time. Other than being a left-handed hitter, it's not the typical profile for a fourth outfielder, who are generally expected to be better in center than Cave has been. But the Twins have regulars in the corners capable of playing center (Kepler and Eddie Rosario).

Buxton on Sunday played in his third straight day for the Twins Triple-A affiliate, which suggests he's about ready to return. It's possible that they'll wait until the rosters expand to bring him back. When he does, Cave's playing time will probably pretty much vanish. He's not a better hitter than Rosario and Kepler, and this team really needs Buxton's defense and basrunning prowess.

Sunday, August 26, 2018

Pic of the Week

Hunter Dozier of Kansas City gets doused after his
walk-off homer Friday night against Cleveland.
Occasionally I hear people grumble about bad teams celebrating after a win. I'm not one of those.

Yeah, Kansas City is having a rough season. It's not September yet and the Royals have lost 90 games. Baltimore's record is worse, but K.C.'s run differential suggests that it's the Royals, not the Orioles, who have the worst team in baseball.

Hunter Dozier is hitting .217 with a .275 on-base percentage and .328 slugging percentage. This is ... bad.

On Friday night, he and his teammates had a good game and they beat a quality team. They deserve to celebrate.

Saturday, August 25, 2018

Mauer's milestone

Joe Mauer passed Rod Carew on the Twins' career hit list Friday. That's hardly an insignificant accomplishment, but it's also not something likely to make it onto a Cooperstown plaque.

Still, Mauer is surrounded on that list by Hall of Famers: Kirby Puckett above him, Carew below. (Mauer does have more than 500 more at-bats as a Twin than Carew.)

If we take the longer view and add in the Washington years of the franchise, No 1. becomes Sam Rice, a Hall of Fame outfielder who spent almost all of his 20-year career with the Senators, 1915-1934. Rice, who hit .322 for his career in the highest era for batting average, had 2,889 hits for Washington; he is, I believe, the player who came closest to the 3,000 hit club without reaching that round number.

Rice, Puckett, and then two other old-time Senators, Joe Judge and Clyde Milan, neither of whom is in Cooperstown. Mauer is likely to catch Milan this year. Judge, he's going to need a couple more seasons -- and the same for Puckett, who is ahead of Judge by just 13 hits.

Nobody other than Mauer, and maybe not even him, knows if Mauer's going to try to play next year. No matter how one slices and dices his stats, 2018 is shaping up as the worst of his distinguished career. He's 35 now, he has another child on the way, he missed about a month with concussion symptoms earlier in the season -- he has reason to hang 'em up if he so chooses.

And he has reason to want to keep going. Even in his worst season, Mauer still has the team's highest on-base percentage (unless you count the likes of trade acquistions Logan Forsythe and Tyler Austin).

I'll accept either decision.