Contemplating Kennys Vargas

It's fairly obvious that the addition of Logan Morrison, once it becomes official, makes Kennys Vargas expendable.

Between Joe Mauer, Morrison and Vargas, the Twins have three guys limited to first base in the field. There's no way to fit three such players on the 25-man roster in the era of 12-man pitching staffs, and no practical benefit even if you did. And Vargas is out of options. (I really have no idea how the Twins milked an extra option year for him last season.)

The thing is, if you ignore Morrison's 2017 power surge, there isn't a lot of reason to favor him over Vargas as a hitter. Vargas enters 2018 with a career slash line of of .252/.311/.437, with 35 homers in 859 plate appearances (one HR per 24.5 PA). Morrison entered 2017 with a slash line of .245/.325/.416, with 84 homers in 2,753 PA (one homer per 33.8 PA). Morrison deserves some credit as a more agile defender, Vargas some for being a bit younger and cheaper. You could flip a coin.

But Morrison's 2017 counts. His newfound ability to lift pitches jolted his power numbers. Vargas has 35 career homers in more than a full season's worth of at-bats; Morrison hit 38 last year. Morrison is what you might hope Vargas to become.

So the question isn't if Vargas is leaving the Twins. (Heck, they even took his No. 19 away and gave it to Anibal Sanchez.) The question is when, where and how. He'd probably prefer that it be sooner, but he has no leverage.

I don't imagine that there'll be much of a trade market for him. Look at how little interest there was for Morrison as a free agent. Defense-limited power bats are not in demand. Ultimately he'll be waived, and I don't know who will claim him.

The chatter out of Fort Myers about Vargas's weight loss and new contact lens for the left eye is nice but probably meaningless. If those things can save his career, he probably needed them a year ago. It's possible that he can make the Twins regret going for Morrison over him. Possible, but not likely.

Logan Morrison and the bench

The addition of Logan Morrison as the presumptive regular designated hitter figures to have some intriguing ramifications for the Twins bench.

Assuming good health, the Twins have a starting outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler; an infield of Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano and Jorge Polanco; Jason Castro catching; and Morrison at DH. Further assuming a 12-man pitching staff -- and they often carried 13 pitchers last season -- that leaves four slots for reserve positions players, one of whom will be Eduardo Escobar and one a backup catcher, presumably Mitch Garver.

It's the other two slots that Morrison's addition should affect.

Even before Morrison's addition, the Twins were vulnerable to left-handed pitching. As noted here Monday, Morrison makes the lineup even more left-handed. Which suggests that the Twins would do well to have at least one right-handed hitter who can step in for one of the corner outfielders or first baseman or DH on occasion.

There are two primary candidates for the fourth outfielder job -- incumbent Robbie Grossman and prospect Zach Granite. Grossman is a switch hitter with a history of being better from the right side (although that was not the case last season), so that sounds like a good fit. But his defensive problems are pretty well documented. By September, Paul Molitor pretty much stopped trying to play him in the field; when Molitor needed a fourth outfielder, Ehire Adrianza, a light-hitting infielder, started showing up in the lineup.

Granite is a far superior defensive outfielder. But he's a left-handed hitter lacking in power. There is no real advantage to playing him over Rosario or Kepler against a lefty. 

Adrianza is, at least theoretically, being challenged by Erick Aybar for the fourth bench slot. Niether is a true outfielder -- Aybar hasn't played outfield in a major league game since 2007 -- and neither is a potent hitter. And if the Twins go to 13 pitchers, that's the roster spot most likely to be used to add the extra arm.

The Twins' bench could use a right-handed outfielder who can rake against lefties and not embarass himself in the field. I don't think that guy's in camp.

The Twins go 'LoMo'

It was reported Sunday that the Twins have a tentative agreement with free-agent first baseman Logan Morrison, pending a physical.

Morrison, 30, was better known a few years ago as a Twitter provocateur than for his hitting exploits, but he abandoned the social media platform and reworked his swing in a conscious effort to hit more fly balls. The result last season was 38 homers, most 40 percent more than his previous career high. He doesn't hit for average, but he draws walks, hits long balls nnd is a pretty decent glove at first base.

The breakout season didn't do much for him in free agency. The Twins landed him for a one-year, $6.5 million guarantee. (There are vesting options and inventives; it could top out at two years, 16 million.) This is pretty cheap even if 2017 was a fluke.

Morrison will help this lineup. He's not a perfect fit for this roster, because he's left-handed  and rhe lineup is overloaded with left-handed hitters: Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Max Kepler, Jason Castro, now Morrison. All fall off against southpaws. (Morrison's OPS was more than 140 points lower when facing lefties than righties last year.) The Twins figure to punish righties, but opponents will be scraping up lefites to face them.

And Morrison is limited to first base in the field. He came up as an outfielder with the Marlins, but was atrocious enough to get moved to first base fairly quickly. This means that to have him, Mauer and Miguel Sano in the lineup simultanously Sano has to be able to play third base. Sano's post-surgical condition makes that somewhat less than certain.

The price was right, and Morrison is without question a roster upgrade. But there are devils in the details.

Pic of the Week

Serving the ball up on a platter --
or a hand brace.

Shortly after position players report, teams have "photo day" at their spring training camps, and a variety of photographers spend the morning taking photos and video. The mugs I sometimes attach to posts come from the AP and were taken on photo day.

Beside basic face shots, AP also moves posed shots of the player doing something -- holding a bat, flipping a ball in the air, taking his stance. These shots are probably of limited use to most newspapers.

Then there's post-surgical Ervin Santana doing this, probably in lieu of showing off his slider grip or something of that ilk.

Notes, quotes and comment

Players across major league baseball wore the cap of
Stoneman Douglas High School for spring training openers
on Friday. This is Byron Buxton of the Twins.

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The Twins lost J.T. Chargois on waivers to the Los Angeles Dodgers. So the hard-throwing but oft-injured reliever almost made it through waivers. And good luck to him.

He has a high ceiling. But he's also essentially missed three of the past five seasons, so there is obvious risk to him.

One thing is certain: The Twins have exposed a number of hard-throwing relief prospects to waivers and Rule 5 since last season, and a number of them have been snatched up: Randy Rosario, Nick Burdi, now Chargois. That didn't used to happen.

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The Twins on Friday signed Erick Aybar, once an All-Star caliber shortstop, to a minor league deal. Aybar's bounced around the past couple seasons -- Atlanta, Detroit, San Diego -- and hasn't hit at a league average level since 2014.

The Twins have Jorge Polanco at short with Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianaza behind him, so I don't really see the purpose of adding Aybar, even with Miguel Sano's uncertain status. Even if Sano is out, there is no way Aybar should play third ahead of Escobar.

Aybar's 34 now, which startles me. I remember seeing him play in Cedar Rapids for the Kernels (back when CR was an Angels affiliate) and being impressed. That game involved Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks (who had just been drafted 1-1 by the Brewers) and Tony Gwynn Jr. for Beloit (then a Brewers affilate), plus Aybar and Alberto Callaspo in the middle infield for Cedar Rapids. A pretty stout assemblage of talent for low A ball.

That was 2003. Seems fresher in my memory than that.

Opening a roster spot for ....?

An interesting development Thursday in Twinsdom:

#mntwins have placed RHP J.T. Chargois on waivers, per person with direct knowledge,  in apparent attempt to outright him and clear a 40-man spot. Chargois, 27, made 2 ROC outings in 2017 due to stress reaction on outside of his throwing elbow.

— Mike Berardino (@MikeBerardino) February 22, 2018

Chargois has had a series of physical problems since turning pro, and even when he was drafted there were concerns that his delivery made him particularly injury prone. I wouldn't be surprised if his early bullpens in Fort Myers left the Twins unimpressed. When sound, he throws upper 90s, perhaps even in triple digits. If he's down to, say, 93, that's not a good sign. 

But generally teams don't look to open a roster spot until they need a roster spot. Putting Chargois on waivers suggests that there's a signing in the works. 

Let the games begin

The Twins today play their first exhibition game, versus the University of Minnesota. Exhibitions by definition don't count, so this might be termed a double exhibition, since it isn't even an official Grapefruit League game. (Any injuries count, though.)

There are just three names in the posted lineup that mean anything to me: center fielder Zach Granite, shortstop Nick Gordon and starter Stephen Gonsalves. Everybody else is a non-roster invitee or org player. Which is fine. It's not vital for the Joe Mauers and Brian Doziers to play on Feb. 22.

The game will be on TV here though (FSN Plus). Finally something to get me off the Olympics telecast at work.