Thursday, August 31, 2017

Notes, quotes and comment

Thumping on the White Sox -- possessors of the second-worst record in the majors -- is what a team with playoff aspirations should be doing.

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Joe Nathan is going to "retire as a Twin" today Friday. The former bullpen ace never found a new team after the Nationals cut him loose early in the season. He's pushing 43 now and has had two Tommy John surgeries.

I will always respect the stars who try to milk one more year out of their talent, who will play until nobody will give them a uniform even if they are no longer what they once were. That's Nathan right now. He was great a decade ago for the Twins, and I will remember him as one of the best relievers in the game long after I forget his late career wanderings from team to team looking for one more opportunity to pitch.

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If the season ended today, the Twins would be in the playoffs. (And so would each of their minor league affilates, from Triple A to Rookie ball.

There are pros and cons to having all the minor league teams continuing to play. The advantages would include the so-called "culture of winning," which is rather undefinable, and having the continued opportunity to send an injured player on a quick rehab assignment. Also, the owners and managements of minor league affilates like winning and appreciate being with a major league organization that frequently gets them into the playoffs.

But it also makes it a bit touchier to make mass callups for the Sept. 1 roster expansion.

The priority isn't getting Rochester the International League title; it's getting the major league team a wild card berth. But one doesn't want to undermine the affiliates unnecessarily.

Example: With Jason Castro sidelined still by his concussion, the Twins have no reason to feel guilty about having Mitch Garver on their active roster. Cory Provus, the radio play-by-play guy, speculated last night that Anthony Recker, the catcher acquired last month as a throw-in when the Twins traded for Jamie Garcia, might be called up as insurance behind Garver and Chris Gimenez.

Probably won't happen, in part because the Twins would have to open a 40-man roster spot for Recker, in part because they don't need to use him at the major league level at this point, and in part because that would create a roster issue for Rochester -- and promoting a catcher to take Recker's space would have the same effect down the chain.

It's a good problem to have.

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One guy who won't be called up or pitch in the minor league postseason is primo pitching prospect Fernando Romero. Romero has been shut down at Double A Chattanooga after a difficult August (8.38 ERA for the month). He's thrown 125 innings this season after working 102.1 the past two seaons combined because of injuries, including Tommy John surgery.

He's on the 40, so a call-up was to be expected. But he's pretty clearly gassed.

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The Twins this week named four prospects to the Arizona Fall League roster: pitchers Tyler Jay and Tom Hackimer (both relievers), outfielder LaMonte Wade and multi-position guy Chris Paul. Paul and Jay missed considerable time this year with injuries, so the AFL gives them a chance to catch up on innings and at-bats respectively.

They have two roster spots yet to fill. Who gets tabbed may depend on injury status.

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The Houston Astros have been cleared to play in their home city again this weekend, so presumably Minute Maid Park and its supporting services and infrastructure are good to go, or at least will be by Saturday. That's a good sign as the Houston area deals with the aftermath of Harvey.


Wednesday, August 30, 2017

Contemplating Jorge Polanco

It has been quite the turnaround for Jorge Polanco.

The Twins shortstop homered twice Tuesday night, once from each side of the plate. He has nine homers on the season, six of them since Aug. 20.

He was 4-for-July, and two of those hits came in the first game of the month; after that, he was 2-for-47 for the month, a .043 batting average. It would be impossible for any shortstop to make up for such a lack of hitting with his glove, and Polanco isn't an Ozzie Smith afield. His playing time dwindled as Paul Molitor began rotating Eduardo Escobar and Ehire Adrianaza at short.

Then the calendar switched. Polanco got a hit on Aug. 2, and that began a 10-game hitting streak. When that ended, he started an eight-game streak that included four straight games with home runs.

Molitor isn't rotating shortstops anymore. Not only is Polanco in the lineup daily, he's starting to appear in the middle of the order with some frequency. (And with Miguel Sano sidelined, one of the reserve infielders has to play third base anyway.)

The defensive metrics are split on Polanco at this point. Per Baseball Reference this morning, Polanco is well below average by Total Zone, exactly average by Defensive Runs Saved. That will work when his OPS is over 1.000, as it has been in August. But I think it remains a fair assessment that he's a second baseman stretched to play shortstop.

I am quite certain the Twins have better defensive shortstops working their way up the ladder. I am not so certain they will hit as well as Polanco. Polanco's midseason slump defied everything he'd done in his young professional career; he's hit at every level.

The front office will doubtless grapple with the middle infield questions this offseason. Do they trade one of the Polanco-Brian Dozier duo to clear room for a fresh shortstop, or wait? But that is a debate for later. They are going to ride this horse the rest of the season. Dozier and Polanco are not the greatest defensive middle infield in the league, but they can hit.


Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Houston's problem

On a scale of 1-10, as the problems confronting Houston go this week, the question of where the Astros will play the Rangers (and probably the Mets) probably rates, oh, maybe negative 2.5.

Baseball matters to us. (If it doesn't, why are you here?) But it is small beer in the context of the calamity that is Harvey and the unprecedented rain that has flooded the nation's fourth largest city.

The Rangers declined to swap home series with the Astros, citing the 13-game road trip such an exchange would create for themselves. The series, which was to begin today at Houston, will instead be played in St. Petersburg, Florida, in the Tampa Bay Rays' dome.

Some -- particularly the Astros -- are irritated by the Rangers' unwillingness to exchange home dates. I'm not particularly bothered; with the storm expected to make landfall again in a day or two and the flooding likely to worsen, the Astros were likely to need another venue for the Mets series this weekend anyway.

There is no telling what damage Harvey and its aftermath have done to the city's infrastructure, including Minute Maid Park and its supporting services. And for all the money American society has "invested" in athletic facilities in the past 25 years or so, there will be much in Houston that is more important to repair than a ball park.

Maybe Minute Maid will be good to go when the waters finally recede; if so, great. I wouldn't count on it. And if the Astros -- who are, as you probably know, having a very good season -- wind up homeless the rest of the season, well, they won't be the only ones in that leaky boat in Houston.

Monday, August 28, 2017

Notes, quotes and comment

Inclined as I am to be a glass-half-empty guy, I look at the Twins' just completed road trip and see a bit of a missed opportunity. Eight games against two of the worst teams in the league, and "just" a 4-4 record.

On the other hand, the Twins now have a 1.5 game lead for the second wildcard spot, the rest of their schedule remains rather soft, and the daily playoff odds issued by Baseball Prospectus still gives them the best shot of the contenders to get into the crapshoot game for the AL.

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Quite the series in Toronto for Bryon Buxton, with two bunt singles in one game and three homers in another.

There's an internet mantra: "Never bunt, hit dingers." I'll take 'em both.

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Bullpen usage notes: Late last week I catagorized the just-arrived John Curtiss as a bullpen arm Paul Molitor did not trust in a key situation.

On Saturday Molitor brought him in for the bottom of the eighth with a one-run deficit. It didn't work out well -- two walks and two runs allowed. But I was struck by how quickly Molitor turned to him in a game that wasn't decided.

Meanwhile, Trevor Hildenberger has now pitched five times in six days, but he hasn't been asked to face a lot of hitters in those games (12 hitters total). It's still probably good the Twins don't play today so Molitor isn't tempted to bring him in again.

I noted at the time of the Brandon Kintzler trade that Molitor had avoided using Hildenberger with a narrow lead. Hildenberger has since picked up five holds and a save, so yeah, that's changed.

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I examined the Twins' ever-shifting lineup for the Monday print column, in which I said Paul Molitor had used 111 different batting orders in the first 123 games.

It's now 113 in 125 games.

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I've said repeatedly this year that the Twins have the youngest lineup in the AL as Baseball Reference figures that. This is no longer true; the Chicago White Sox, who cleared out most of their veterans last month, have now overtaken the Twins; their average hitter is 27.1 years old, and the Twins are at 27.2.

Third youngest: the Boston Red Sox at 27.4. The Bosox aren't just good; they're young and good.



Sunday, August 27, 2017

Pic of the Week

A stadium worker at a minor league park in Greensboro,
North Carolina, takes in the solar eclipse during Monday's
game.

Had the forecast for Monday in Cedar Rapids been for clear skies, my wife and I probably would have stuck around a few more hours. The Kernels had a solar glasses giveaway slated for a noon game, with the the eclipse (about 90 percent there) slated to hit its peak in midgame.

It was going to be cloudy there, so we took off for home. It wasn't any better en route.


Saturday, August 26, 2017

Revamping the bullpen

John Curtiss, the 35th pitcher used by the Minnesota Twins
this season, embraces catcher Chris Gimenez after finishing
Friday's win at Toronto
It's been more than a week since I wrote about the Twins here, and I doubt that I could accurately recount the roster maneuvers employed by the front office in that time as the Twins navigated a pair of doubleheaders.

One of them, however, was the addition of John Curtiss to the bullpen.

Curtiss is certainly intriguing. I've written repeatedly about the waves of college relievers the Twins drafted during Terry Ryan's second reign as general manager. We're starting, at what seems like long last, to see some results for those picks -- not from Nick Burdi, J.T. Chargois, Tyler Jay or Mason Melotakis, but from Tyler Duffey, Trevor Hildenberger and now Curtiss.

Curtiss' 2017 minor league stats are revealing. An ERA over two levels of 1.28. No homers allowed at all -- this year or last. More than 12 strikeouts per nine innings. 

And four walks per nine innings, which is more than the Twins are wont to tolerate. But he's been essentially unhittable the past two seasons, and his WHIP -- walks and hits per inning pitched -- is well under 1, which is very good indeed.

Curtiss is a power arm. As is Alan Busenitz, who is earning an increasingly prominent role in Paul Molitor's revamped bullpen. As is Ryan Pressly, whose inconsistency has earned him an increasingly less prominent role.

We can split the bullpen into two parts: Those Molitor trusts in key situations and those he doesn't.

Group One: Hildenberger, Duffey, Taylor Rogers, Matt Belisle, Busenitz

Group Two: Curtiss, Pressly, Glen Perkins

The status can change. The names certainly have. Only three of those eight have been on the roster all season.

Friday, August 25, 2017

A trip to Cedar Rapids: Final thoughts

I had intended to start writing about the major league team again, but after watching more errant throws and misplays Thursday night than I saw in three games of low A ball, I don't really want to.

So, a couple followup comments and notes:




The double-digits thing sounds more impressive than it is. Ten is a lot of triples. It's not that impressive in homers and steals (he has 11 steals). And 19 doubles isn't anything astounding.

But he's still fairly young for the league.

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Royce Lewis' leg kick.
(Photo by Linda Vanderwerf)

I commented in the Monday print column about Royce Lewis that he has a bigger leg kick than some pitchers employ in their windup.

Here's a photo of that leg kick, taken by my wife.

I said Monday that I doubt the Twins will try to change anything with him until he starts to struggle. That hasn't happened yet.

Incidentally, Lewis hit his first homer at Cedar Rapids on Monday.

And he drew his first walk Wednesday night (with the bases loaded in extra innings). He has, at this writing, 1:8 walk-to-strikeout ratio in the Midwest League. Granted, it is all of 45 plate appearances, but that's not a good ratio -- and it's drastically different than what he had in the Gulf Coast League, where he had more walks than strikeouts.

Again, small sample size. But it suggests to me that, his lofty batting average aside, he is being challenged by the move to the Midwest League. Which is neither unexpected nor detrimental. It's part of the process.