Morneau traded to Pittsburgh

Justin Morneau leaves the Twins having moved ahead of
Tony Oliva on the Minnesota career home run list.

Well, it happened, after all. Justin Morneau -- 2006 MVP, franchise cornerstone and part-time Lake Crystal resident -- was traded Saturday to Pittsburgh for a reserve outfielder (Alex Presley) and a player to be named.

I'll write in more detail about the trade for the Monday print column. For now, I'll just acknowledge mixed feelings about this deal.

The sentimentalist in me, and it's a bigger part of my personality than I care to admit, wanted Morneau to spend his entire career in a Twins uniform. The realist in me recognizes that Morneau is not the hitter he was before the concussions and other injuries and is certain that the next good Twins team will not have Morneau as a key player.

I'm saddened by his departure. I recognize its inevitability, its necessity, even its virtue.

And I hope he helps Pittsburgh win the World Series.

Notes, quotes and comment

Yu don't say

I really thought Friday that Yu Darvish was going to get his no-hitter against the Twins. Through six innings, Darvish appeared literally unhittable — it's truly astounding to see a major league hitter like Trevor Plouffe miss a pitch by that much.

And then, in the seventh, a walk and boom, boom — Chris Herrmann and Justin Morneau go deep, and the unhittable is hit.

Waiver followups

Former Twin Jason Kubel, designated for assignment earlier in the week by Arizona, wound up with the Cleveland Indians. And Josh Willingham remains with the Twins.

I didn't really see the Twins claiming Kubel; their outfield shortage, even with Wilkin Ramirez out the rest of the way after fracturing his tibia, is center-field specific. At no point in his career was Kubel ever a center field option.

And I never viewed the Twins as a motivated seller on Willingham. The Orioles, who are reported to have won the claim on the Hammer, instead swung a deal for Mike Morse, another right-handed slugger with defensive issues. Unlike Willingham, Morse is a free agent after the season, so the O's aren't financially committed past next month.

Miguel Sano crushes a double in the seventh inning Friday.
This image was tweeted by Scott Blanchette, the
RockCats' team photographer.

Miguel Sano

I caught part of a Terry Ryan radio interview late Friday morning. One of the topics was why mega prospect Miguel Sano won't get a September callup.

Ryan talked a little about the 40-man roster implications of such a move, then said something curious: Sano, he claimed, is struggling in Double A.

If only the Twins hitters were as deeply mired in woe as Sano and his .890 OPS with New Britain.

I don't want to be too sarcastic here. I accept Ryan's belief that Sano isn't ready for the majors right now, and I understand why Ryan wishes to avoid unnecessarily tying up a 40-man roster spot this winter. Sano's batting average with New Britain is under .240. The OPS is driven by his extra-base hits (33 of 'em, including 17 homers, in 260 plate appearances) and his walks (35). The stat line shows a lot of errors and a lot of strikeouts.

For the record, Sano on Friday hit a pair of home runs and a double. He'll get to the majors soon enough.

The five seasons of Sam Deduno

Sam Deduno's walk rate in 2013
is much improved over 2012.

Sam Deduno was pulled from Thursday's game after three innings. It was the second time in two weeks that he had complaints of shoulder soreness, so I rather expect the Twins will shut him down for September. (Update: The Twins this morning put both Deduno and Wilkin Ramirez on the disabled list and recalled Pedro Hernandez and Darin Mastroianni).

If so, it caps a weird year for the right-hander, a five-part roller coaster that leaves his career perhaps no better off than when 2013 opened:

Season 1: The WBC. Deduno was a non-roster invitee to Twins camp and left early as a belated addition to the Dominican Republic pitching staff for the World Baseball Classic. I doubt anybody connected with the Twins expected Deduno to be the anchor man of the Dominican rotation. He went 3-0 and started the championship game for D.R.

He wasn't perfect in the WBC, but the event was a better platform for his rotation candidacy than the Grapefruit League would have been. Had he remained in Fort Myers, he might not have gotten enough work to win a spot. As it was, the WBC resume was strong enough that Deduno might even have gotten the Opening Day assignment, except that he returned to the Twins with a strained groin.

Season 2: Disabled list and minors. Deduno sat out April to let the groin heal, then made three starts in May for Rochester. He had a 2.70 ERA in those starts, and the Twins brought him back to Minnesota before the month ended.

Season 3: The ace. Through his first 13 starts with the Twins, Deduno was 7-4, 3.17. It wasn't a great BB/K ratio (33 walk, 47 strikeouts in 82.1 innings), but he kept the ball in the park (four homers allowed) and was easily the Twins most effective starter into August

Season 4: The August slump. The next five starts (including Thursday's) didn't go so well: 1-4, 5.96. Oddly, the walk/strikeout ratios were much better in this stretch (8 BB, 20K); but the BABIP -- batting average, balls in play -- went up about 90 points and the home run rate went from one long ball every 20 innings to one every six innings.

Season 5: The presumed shutdown. This is hardly official, but likely. We don't know if there's damage that will require surgery or if rest and rehab will fix the shoulder, but either way, I don't expect to see Deduno again this year. If he's done, he's done with an 8-8, 3.83 season in 108 innings over 18 starts — six innings a start.

And if the coming medical exams (LaVelle Neal of the Star Tribune predicted Deduno will have a MRI done) lead to surgery, it's entirely possible that the Twins will again remove him from the 40-man roster. Shoulders are tricky things to cut on.

Notes, quotes and comment

The last time the Twins put up a crooked number -- meaning they scored more than one run in an inning -- was in the seventh inning last Friday, 38 innings ago. They scored two runs in that frame.

Obviously the starting pitching this year has not been good enough for the Twins to contend. But the offense has been just as bad. And since we knew coming in that the starting pitching was questionable, the offense is truly the larger disappointment.

The Twins expected more from Trevor Plouffe, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit and even the unestablished Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks than they got. To a lesser extent, that's also true of Justin Morneau. (I don't think anybody expected much from Pedro Florimon as a hitter, and that's what he's provided.)

They just don't have enough Joe Mauers to make this lineup work. Right now, of course, they don't have any Joe Mauers. And it shows.

---

Jason Kubel has had a lost season in Arizona, with just
five home runs. Last year he bopped 30 long balls.

Former Twin Jason Kubel was designated for assignment Tuesday by the Arizona Diamondbacks. Kubel hit 30 homers for the D-backs last year, the first year of his two-year contract, but this year was hampered by back and quad problems. He'd lost his starting job and leaves Arizona hitting a mere .220/.288/.324, a far cry from his career slash numbers (.265/.330/.456).

But Kubel's production really started its sudden dissolution last season. He entered last August hitting .290 with 22 home runs; in August he hit .159, in September he hit .186. And he never got going at any point this year.

He's 31. There ought to be some juice left in his bat. But if he's physically not able to show it in what remains of the 2013 season -- and that the D-backs are willing to dump him now suggests he's not -- it may be difficult for him to find a major league contract for 2014.

---

The reports late Wednesday had the Baltimore Orioles winning the waiver claim on Josh Willingham. The Twins and O's have until Friday to work out a deal; if they fail, Willingham stays with Minnesota the rest of the season.

My guess is no deal. The Twins have no obvious need to move Willingham now; he's under contract for next season, and his value is probably at a low point, since he, like Kubel, has had a injury-plagued season that hasn't been up to his established standard.

---

The Twins this week released minor league veteran relievers Luis Perdomo and Tim Wood. Perdomo got some major league action with the Twins last year, showing velocity without command. Which is pretty much what he's always had.

Wood was signed as a minor league free agent after an impressive season in Triple A with the Pirates organization, despite which the Pirates never called him up. Wood spent most of the year on the shelf with arm troubles. He occupied a 40-man roster spot all year and never really came close to landing a 25-man slot.

Releasing him opens a 40-man roster spot if the Twins want to give a September call-up to somebody not now on the 40.

Arizona dreaming

Byron Buxton at the Futures Game.  The 19-year-old will
play in the Arizona Fall League this year.

Any news involving Byron Buxton gets my attention, and so the announcement Tuesday that he will be among the seven Twins farmhands playing for the Glendale Desert Dogs in the Arizona Fall League caught my attention.

The MLB.com piece on the league rosters leads with Buxton, the consensus top prospect in the game. It also deems the AFL to be at a level between Double A and Triple A.

If so, that means Buxton, currently ripping it up in high A ball, is again being challenged -- which figures. He should be on the fast track.

But if he's being challenged with this assignment, what about Max Kepler, who missed the first half of the season with injury and has been somewhat less than dominant in low A? He too is going to the AFL. He's a good prospect, and he has some time to make up, but this is much faster company than he's used to.

It's interesting, too, that Kepler is listed on the roster as an infielder. In his case, that means first base. It hardly precludes some outfield time, but it makes me suspect (especially since the Desert Dogs manager will be Jeff Smith, the manager of the Twins Double-A affiliate) that the Twins want Kepler to focus on first base. (It may also be that there remains some concern about his elbow.)

Trevor May has
averaged more than
a strikeout an inning
this year in Double A.

Also on the roster: Eddie Rosario. Latin players aren't often assigned to the AFL; they more often play winter ball in their homeland (as will be the case with Miguel Sano in the Dominican). Rosario starred last winter in the Puerto Rican winter league. But he was also playing mostly outfield, and the Twins have had him playing second base. It may be that this assignment is rooted in the master plan of Rosario at the keystone.

Then there's the pitchers. The AFL teams are formed out of five different organizations, and typically each team sends one starting pitcher. The Twins are sending two starters: Alex Meyer, who missed much of the summer with a shoulder strain, and Trevor May. Meyer has innings to make up, so sending him is no surprise; May, on the other hand, is on his way to a 150-inning season. They are two of the organization's more prominent pitching prospects, and they're at an advanced level. The Twins would dearly love to see one of them emerge for next year's rotation.

Buxton, Meyer, Rosario, May and Kepler were all generally rated among the organization's top 10 prospects coming into 2013.

The Twins are also sending a pair of relievers, Zach Jones and A.J. Achter, each of whom have had strong seasons. (Achter has split the 2013 season between Double A and Triple A; Jones has been in high A.) As relievers, neither is ever likely to be prominent on prospect lists, but they are legit major-league possibilities.

Contemplating Aaron Hicks

Aaron Hicks in spring training: Despite
the grimace, he had a superb
spring. It was the regular season
that went sour on him.

I was trying Monday to puzzle out who the Twins might bring up when the rosters expand next month when my eye fell on Aaron Hicks' stat line since his demotion to Triple A Rochester at the the start of August.

.179/.276/.196? Yikes.

This is looking like a worst-case scenario. The argument against pushing a prospect up the ladder is that exposing the player to a more difficult level prematurely can be damaging.

That Hicks was pushed up the ladder this spring is undeniable. I cannot criticize the Twins for doing so; I would have been vocally disappointed had he opened 2013 in Triple A. He had played very well in Double A in 2012 and he had clearly outplayed his competition for the center field job in spring training.

But bringing Hicks from Double A to the majors clearly did not work for him, and this belated month in Triple A isn't going any better.

Where do the Twins, and Hicks, go from here?

A September return, which I figured was a given when the Twins demoted him, seems pointless now. Giving him some time away from the field is probably the better idea. Then a stint in winter ball seems likely.

There's still time to salvage Hicks. He has two option seasons left. He's only 23 (turns 24 in October). He had several impressive moments in the majors; the talent to be a good major league player is there.

But certainly the Twins cannot have him prominent in their plans for 2014.

Nor has Clete Thomas cemented his place on the roster, much less the lineup.

And for all the merited hype Byron Buxton has received (his slash line in Fort Myers is .328/.420/.495 and rising), I cannot imagine the Twins bringing him straight to the majors next spring. Well, that's putting it a bit too strongly; I can imagine it, but it's not going to happen. (Kent Hrbek went straight from high-A ball to the majors in 1981, as did Rod Carew in 1967, so it's not completely unprecedented, just exceedingly rare.)

Which all adds up to this: The Twins are likely this winter to look for a more established center fielder who would be an upgrade on what they've gotten out of the position in 2013 but is not going to be a roadblock on Buxton.

If Buxton is Mike Trout 2.0, he'll be playing center field in Minnesota by July.

Who's on first next year?

Justin Morneau looks at umpire C.B. Bucknor
after being called out on strikes.

The Monday print column expanded a bit on a post from last week about Joe Mauer and the possibility that his current concussion will hasten a position change for the Twins star.

But let's say Mauer remains the Twins primary catcher. What are the first base options for 2014?

Justin Morneau will be a free agent this winter. For all the trade speculation that surrounded the former MVP this summer, there really appears to have been limited interest in him elsewhere.

He's no longer a franchise centerpiece and doesn't belong in the middle of the order anymore, but ... he's probably more valuable to the Twins than he is to anybody else, he's put down roots in Minnesota, and the rise of the likes of Miguel Sano, Oswaldo Arcia, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton means the Twins may, as early as the middle of 2014, be in a position to move Morneau to a place in the bottom half of the lineup.

Current take: I'd say it's at least 50-50 that Morneau is the Twins first baseman next year.

Chris Parmelee, long the heir apparent at first base, was the regular right fielder early on but didn't hit. He was optioned out at the All-Star break, a move that surprised me more than it probably should have, and ... he hasn't hit in Rochester either (.225/.331/.355). It's the dismal slugging percentage that is most alarming. I really expected him to grab Triple A by the throat, as he did in 2012. That didn't happen.

Current take: I think Parmelee is out of options after this season. He may not get a September call-up. He certainly can't be prominent in the front office's plans for 2014.

Chris Colabello has bounced up and down between Minnesota and Rochester in the second half. The minor league veteran has dominated the International League but has been highly strikeout-prone in limited major-league at-bats.

Current take: I have difficulty imagining the Twins committing this offseason to Colabello as a regular. He has a better shot than Parmelee, but his best chance is as an injury replacement.

Jose Abreu is an intriguing notion, and probably the free agent first baseman with the most potential to pay off. He's a Cuban defector, 26, who has been a masher in the top league on the island. He's establishing residency in Haiti and his immigration status is far from settled, but the speculation is that someone will offer him a six-year, $60 million deal to play in the United States when he's cleared.

Current take: The Twins don't have a track record of pursuing big-bucks free agents, and they don't appear often in the "informed speculation" around Abreu. That kind of talk has focused on the likes of Texas, Boston and the Mets. But few thought Oakland would land Yoenis Cepedes, and few connected Cincinnati with Aroldis Chapman; the big-market teams haven't often splurged on the Cubans. The Twins have the budget room to make a $10 million-a-year commitment (especially with Morneau coming off the books); it's far from certain they have the gambler's mentality the move would take.

Conclusion

All of this hinges on Mauer. If he and the Twins want to keep him as a primary catcher, first base is there to be filled. If it's deemed time to move him, first base is his most likely destination, and everybody else is out of luck.