Sunday, March 31, 2013

Pic of the Week

Mike Scoscia, manager of the
Angels, signs autographs.
One more spring training lines-and-autograph photo.

Yeah, I'm ready for the season to begin.

Saturday, March 30, 2013

Verlander and Posey: Two really big deals

Friday was a big day for Justin Verlander — he got a new
mega contract, and he got to play with a real tiger.
Opening Day serves as an unofficial deadline for contract negotiations, with players generally opining that once the season starts they don't want to be "distracted" by such issues. (My bosses are permitted to distract me all they want with multi-million dollar offers, but they apparently don't want to be distracted by such nonsense.)

Friday saw the completion of two significant contract extensions: Justin Verlander for five years, $180 million — a deal that, tacked onto his current contract, ties him to the Detroit Tigers through at least 2019 —and Buster Posey for eight years, $167 million, the second richest contract ever for a catcher (behind, of course, Joe Mauer's deal with the Twins).

The Verlander contract comes a day after the news about Johan Santana's possibly career-ending injury, and the parallels are fairly obvious. Santana signed his big contract with the Mets just before turning 29; it came after four seasons in which he never failed to pitch at least 219 innings, led the league three times in strikeouts and had staked a claim to the title of "best pitcher in baseball." Verlander is 30, and he is coming off four seasons of at least 224 innings with three strikeout crowns and his own claim to the title of "best pitcher in baseball."

Santana was only able to give the Mets one year near the level of productivity and durability he had displayed with the Twins before he started breaking down. That doesn't mean Verlander's about to decline in the same manner; Verlander is bigger than Santana, he's racked up many games with higher pitch counts than the Twins ever let Santana throw,  and he's already at the age at which Santana's stuff began to deteriorate.

Buster Posey has qualified
for a batting title just
once in his career.
The Mets probably wish they hadn't granted Santana his contract. It may be that the Tigers will eventually regret Verlander's contract. Or maybe he is truly the rare arm that can sustain that kind of workload over such a lengthy period.

Posey, like Mauer when he got his contract, is coming off an MVP season that included a batting title — a rare achievement for a catcher. Also like Mauer, there is chatter about the Giants shifting Posey to a less injury-prone position.  (As with Mauer, Posey has missed most of a season because of an injury sustained while catching.)

Posey's contract will tie him to the Giants through his age 35 season. That's an advanced age for a high-offense catcher — a danger that, of course, applies to the Mauer contract as well.

Part of what makes Posey and Mauer worthy of their pay is that they produce as well as they do while playing catcher. They wouldn't be as valuable if they were outfielders or first basemen. It's a dilemma, because heavy playing time at catcher generally shortens careers.

The Giants were willing — indeed, given that Posey was three years away from free agency, we could say the Giants were eager — to take that risk.


Friday, March 29, 2013

Contemplating Johan Santana

Johan Santana's season is over
before it started.
Practically from the day the Twins traded him away, I've quietly harbored the fantasy that Johan Santana had not thrown his last pitch in a Minnesota uniform — that, like Bert Blyleven before him, he might once again find his pitching home in the place his big league career started.

That notion was probably always fanciful. Today — with the news Thursday that Santana's surgically-repaired shoulder has given way again — the odds are far better that he'll never throw another pitch in the majors.

We Twins fans should treasure the memory of Santana's brilliance with the Twins. From the time he broke into the rotation in 2003 through his first season with the Mets after the ill-fated trade (2008), Santana finished seventh, first, third, first, fifth and third in the Cy Young voting — and I do believe that the voters soon regretted not giving him the honor in 2005, which would have made three in a row for him.

Three times he led his league in ERA, three times in strikeouts, twice in innings pitched, three times in strikeouts per nine innings. It was a truly impressive six-year run.

What comes next for the Venezuelan southpaw is uncertain.  He's 34. His return from his 2010 surgery to repair his capsule took 19 months, and no pitcher has had the surgery twice. The Mets owe him more than $25 million for 2013, and there is no chance that they will pick up his option for 2014.

Will Santana want to endure the grueling rehab when he can expect only a limited payoff at the end of it? Surely there won't be big-ticket offers waiting for him at age 36 after a second major shoulder operation.

Still, this is a proud pitcher — with a record to be proud of — with a competitive streak worthy of admiration. He might decide to try it just because he can try it.

Thursday, March 28, 2013

A teaser taste of Bryon Buxton

Bryon Buxton took batting practice last summer at Target
Field under the eyes of Ron Gardenhire and the coaching
staff when he came to sign his contract.
In the last week of spring training, with the rosters essentially set, teams frequently bring prospects over from the minor league camp for a day. Wednesday was Byron Buxton's turn — Buxton, last June's No. 2 overall draft pick, just 19 and already regarded as one of the brightest lights in the minors.

Before Wednesday's exhibition game against Pittsburgh, MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger tweeted this gem from Ron Gardenhire about Buxton:

He's a five-tool guy. Or maybe a six-tool guy. And if he can cook, he's probably a seven-tool guy.

So ... Buxton leads off the game against A.J. Burnett — veteran power pitcher — and singles sharply to center. Then he steals second, takes third on a throwing error by the catcher, and ultimately scores on a ground out.

For the game, Buxton was 1-for-4 with a walk. He stole two bases and scored three runs. Pittsburgh committed two errors trying to make plays on him.

Gardenhire again:

We just started laughing. How old is he, 19 years old? He gets up, rips one through the middle right away. You give him the green light, he steals second and goes to third. This game is not that easy. It really isn't. But that's why these guys are drafted No.1.

I expect Buxton to open the season with Cedar Rapids in the low A Midwest League. From there, he'll decide where he's playing. He's that kind of talent.

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Alex Burnett, Tyler Robertson and bullpen roles

Alex Burnett's
strikeout rate has
dropped from 7.0
K/9 in 2010 to
4.5 in 2012.

So ... this morning the Twins optioned Alex Burnett to the minors. This leaves 28 players in camp, but non-roster guys Rich Harden and Rafael Perez are clearly not ready to pitch yet (Perez has thrown some batting practice and Harden has started working off the mound), and the presumption is that Tim Wood will go on the disabled list.

If in fact Wood is out of the immediate picture, the bullpen looks like this:

Closer: Glen Perkins
Setup 1: Jared Burton
Setup 2/LOOGY 1: Brian Duensing
MR 1: Casey Fien
MR 2: Ryan Pressly
LOOGY 2: Tyler Robertson
Long: Josh Roenicke

Quite possibly Ron Gardenhire and Co. would flip-flop Pressly and Roenicke. In practice, I don't think there's going to be much distinction; Roenicke can't give them two innings every day, and there's going to be too much work for one long man with this starting rotation. Pressley's going to work more long relief and mop-up than meaningful outs for a while.

Neither Burnett nor Robertson had good stat lines this spring, not that eight innings or so proves anything. I do regard the choice of Robertson as a more realistic one. The Twins (at least until Scott Diamond returns) have an all-right-handed rotation, most of whom will need early relief help. Robertson gives them a lefty to use to get out of those fifth- and sixth -nning jams while saving Duensing for the seventh or eighth.

Robertson may be too inconsistent to be a truly good LOOGY, but he's better equipped for the job than any of the right-handers. Probably.

Bullpens are always works in progress, and with Anthony Swarzak and Wood presumably somewhere on the rehab trail, there will certainly be some changes made before April ends.

As for Burnett ... regular readers know that I've grown increasingly skeptical of his value. When he came up, I envisioned him becoming a new version of Juan Rincon, who gave the Twins three very good seasons of set-up work. It hasn't happened for Burnett. His strikeout rate has fallen each year in the majors, and while his walk rate has fallen also, it's still too high.

---

Byron Buxton, the No 2 overall draft pick last June, made the trip to Bradenton, Fla., for the nooner exhibition with the Pirates. As with Miguel Sano last week (and again Tuesday), this has nothing to do with competing for a big-league spot this year. Just a glimpse for Gardy and Crew, and a reward for Buxton.

Making roster room

Wilkin Ramirez accepts dugout high-fives after scoring a run
last week in an exhibition game.
Two more non-roster pitchers, Sam Deduno and P.J. Walters, were reassigned to the minor-league complex Tuesday. This boiled the major-league side to 26 healthy players and, at least as reported by the various beat guys, left the roster competition down to three arms for two bullpen jobs (Alex Burnett, Tyler Robertson and Josh Roenicke).

If so, the Twins are opening with 12 pitchers and will carry outfielder Wilkin Ramirez as a bench bat. I'm not sold on Ramirez for that job, but that's a minor issue. The Opening Day roster will not last long, and I fully expect that by the time Anthony Swarzak and/or Scott Diamond are ready to come off the disabled list the Twins will have decided they need a 13th pitcher.

And when they get to that point, whose roster spot will he take? Probably Ramirez's.

Keeping Ramirez will make this an aspirational roster. The Twins want to have a 12-man staff, not a 13-man staff, so they'll open with 12 and hope that the rotation doesn't immediately become a train wreck. If — when — it does, they'll deal with the fallout then.

There's a price to pay for that aspiration. The Twins will have to open a spot on their 40-man roster  for Ramirez, a non-roster invitee. The 40 has been full all spring, and the injuries that sidelined Swarzak and Tim Wood — plus the fact that Rule 5 pick Ryan Pressly earned a roster spot — have allowed the Twins to avoid having to cut any of the bullpen use-or-lose guys (the other being Roenicke) for now.

Somebody will have to outrighted, released, traded, sold — removed from the roster — to make room for Ramirez. It probably won't be a significant loss of talent, but the gain — a week or two of Ramirez — seems marginal at best.




Tuesday, March 26, 2013

All the multi-position catchers

Dan Rohlfing has
had a good spring:
.296/.367/.593 in
30 plate appearances.
 
The Twins on Monday optioned out Drew Butera, which means they'll carry two catchers — Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit — who'll both be in the lineup at five to six days a week. Catching, DHing, corner outfield, first base — flexibility is the byword.

Flexibility and hitting. Mauer's a gifted defensive catcher and Doumit is not, but they both hit well enough to be used at less important defensive positions. Butera is a good receiver, but he's not a quality hitter; there's no gain to have him play first base or left field.

The Twins also on Monday officially reassigned Dan Rohlfing, the last of the many non-roster catching invitees, to minor-league camp, but kept him on the major league side for depth. I'm not sure what, as a practical matter, the difference is between being a non-roster invitee and being a minor-leaguer on the major league side, but Butera's gone from the clubhouse and, at least as of Monday, Rohlfing was not.

Rohlfing's minor league record doesn't scream prospect, but he appears to have made an impression in camp, even if (or perhaps because) he played quite a bit at other positions than his native catcher.

Multi-position catchers seem to be proliferating in the Twins organization. Mauer. Doumit. Chris Herrmann, who figures to play at lot at Triple-A Rochester, has played considerable outfield in the Twins system and was a third baseman in college. Rohlfing, who has split the past two years between high A and Double A, has a few dozen games in the outfield in the minors and has played considerable first base this spring.

Catcher is a specialty position, and as illustrated by the fact that Drew Butera has almost three years and more than 500 plate appearances in the majors with a  .183 career batting average, defensive chops behind the plate are valued. Most catchers are strictly catchers.

The Twins appear to be making a conscious effort to break that mold.

But Herrmann and Rohlfing and any other multi-position catcher — perhaps Mike Kvasnicka, the Minnesota native and former Gopher the Twins traded for Monday — have to hit to make their multi-position ability meaningful.