My Top 15 Twins prospects

It seems everybody with a baseball-oriented blog at one point or another does some sort of prospect ranking. I've resisted the urge to compile my own list of Twins prospects, arguing to myself that I have little if anything to add to the discussion. I've seen very little of the players, I don't routinely talk to scouts or player development people.

What I can do is make a decent evaluation of the numbers and form opinions from the stats and what I read and hear from other sources. Which is pretty much what I do on every topic in this blog anyway.

So ... The Baseball Outsider Top 15 Twins prospects:

1) Byron Buxton (of)
2) Miguel Sano (3b)
3) Oswaldo Arcia (of)
4) Alex Meyer (rhp)
5) Aaron Hicks (of)
6) Kyle Gibson (rhp)
7) Eddie Rosario (2b/of)
8) J.O. Barrios (rhp)
9) Trevor May (rhp)
10) Max Kepler (of)
11) Levi Michael (ss/2b)
12) Chris Herrmann (c/of)
13) Mason Melotakis (lhp)
14) Luke Bard (rhp)
15) Joe Benson (of)

A few comments:

The general consensus has Sano ahead of Buxton, because 1) Sano is slightly ahead of Buxton in the process and 2) Sano has top-of-the-line power, which is the most important tool. I'm going with Buxton because he has a much wider range of tools and because he's clearly capable of playing a premium defensive position. If I were convinced that Sano will make it as a third baseman, I'd join the crowd and put him at the top.

Similarly, I would have Rosario higher if I were sure he'll be a major league second baseman. And if I were sure he won't be a second baseman, I'd likely put him behind Kepler. I don't know that Rosario's bat is going to be good enough to be a corner outfielder.

You can make a case for putting Meyer, Gibson, Barrios and May in almost any order among the pitchers; the only thing I'm absolutely sure of is that Meyer has to rank above May. Barrios is the furthest from the majors, Gibson the closest; Gibson may have the lowest ceiling but the highest floor.

I think there's pretty clear dividing line between No. 10 and No. 11. After Kepler, we have high draft picks who had difficult 2012s (Michael and Benson); pitchers who were relievers in college (Melotakis and Bard); and a likely No. 2 catcher (Herrmann) who's nearly ready. Expectations in all cases are somewhat dampened.

I could have replaced any of those five with the likes of middle infielders Niko Goodrum, Jorge Polanco and Danny Santana or corner infielder Travis Harrison. But they have their own question marks.

Ranking Aaron Hicks as a prospect

'Tis the season of prospect lists, and MLB.com on Tuesday released its rankings of the Top 100 prospects.

The Twins have six of the 100 players -- led by Miguel Sano at No. 12 and Byron Buxton at No. 19. Then they have Alex Meyer at 40, Kyle Gibson at 49, Oswaldo Arcia at 93 and Aaron Hicks at 98.

I don't have a particularly high regard for the MLB rankings, at least as compared to those compiled by Baseball America or John Sickels, and the case of Hicks is a specific example.

After the 2011 season, MLB.com had Hicks listed at No.24 -- a ranking that had to be fueled my his impressive athletic tools, not his performance. He had spent three years mired in A ball -- two seasons at low-A Beloit, one at high-A Fort Myers -- and had hit .242 in the Florida State League.

At that point, BA and Sickels dropped Hicks from their top 100 lists (Sickels's actually two lists, 50 position prospects and 50 pitching prospects).

Last season, bumped up to Double-A New Britain, Hicks blossomed. It was easily the most productive season of his minor league career, and it came against a higher level of competition than he had ever faced. He did more in 2012 to establish himself as a prime prospect than he had in the previous three years combined, and as a result he's the apparent favorite to claim the center field job in Minnesota.

And for that, he dropped 74 spots in the MLB.com rankings.

I suppose MLB.com should be credited with keeping Hicks high in its rankings last year despite his struggles in the lower levels of the minors. But I don't understand the logic of downgrading him when he shows signs of turning tools into skills.

AL Central: Going all festival

The Twins weren't the only major league team holding a promotional "fest" last weekend -- with the offweek in the NFL playoffs, it was a good opportunity to get some headlines and remind fans that spring training is just a couple of weeks away.

Around the division's fan fests:

Detroit: Perhaps the biggest question for the Tigers is: Who closes? Jim Leyland, the manager, had an amusing answer and a more sincere one, and the sincere one can be found in the link: Prospect Bruce Rondon is the leading candidate, but Leyland wants to get a sense of his makeup before committing to the kid in the ninth inning.

But I liked this one, from the first day of Tigerfest: This is why I like these forums, so I can think about these things. I don't know what I'm going to do.

Chicago: The ghost of A.J. Pierzynski, who signed with Texas as a free agent, apparently haunted Soxfest. That's understandable: Pierzynski has been a durable, productive catcher who fit well with the South Siders self-image, and nobody really knows what to expect of Tyler Flowers, the heir apparent.

I understand why the Sox let A.J. go. He's in his mid-30s, and he has a lot of mileage on his tires. Catchers typically don't last as long as he has. But I expect the Sox will miss him a great deal. 

Kansas City: Actually held its fanfest the previous week. The Royals, who've been compiling a lineup of talented young position players, were rather aggressive about getting starting pitchers -- Jamie Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Edwin Santana, Wade Davis -- and the organization obviously wants to make its move up the standings now.

I have the sense that the K.C. fan base isn't fully buying it.

Cleveland: Also held its Tribefest the previous week. Hey: Terry Francona! Nick Swisher! A couple of new names the casual fan knows! 

The offseason move that matters most was probably trading for pitching prospect Trevor Bauer, but that's not the kind of guy who packs the autograph lines.

Baseball and the Vikings

I'll say this up front: I'm not a football fan. (I volunteered to work during the Super Bowl, and the copy desk TV will be tuned to the Puppy Bowl.) I am, obviously, a baseball fan. And I dislike, from a public policy standpoint, the public financing component for the coming Vikings stadium.

So it's not surprising that in the brewing fight between the Vikings and amateur baseball over the dimensions of the new "Taj Ma Zigi" (thank you, Patrick Reusse), I'm on the baseball guys' side.

I understand the Vikings argument that they're competing with HDTV. I've been to a few NFL games. They've been well spaced apart, because it takes about a decade for me to forget how miserable I find the experience of actually attending a NFL game. There's no question in my mind — if I cared enough about football to want to watch it regularly, it's far better to do so at home.

And if the Vikings were paying for the new arena themselves, fine; they pay for it, they can set the rules.

They aren't. The public financing for this facility — sold to the state by Gov. Mark Dayton as a "people's stadium" — dwarfs the entire cost of Target Field. True, this one has a roof, and Target Field does not, and that's bound to add to the expense.

As I see it, the justification for the roof is the non-football uses the facility is expected to bear, and the extra costs of the enclosing the stadium is the justification for the state money. And now the Vikings are clearly out to undermine the non-football purposes.

I doubt the Vikings' good faith in this. The "people's stadium" idea wasn't theirs; they just accepted it as a means to get the stadium. Once they have it, their goal will be to get everybody else out. Especially those pesky college, high school and amateur baseball teams.

The Sunday Funnies

Bugs Raymond was an outstanding spitball pitcher about a century ago. He was also badly alcoholic — teammate Rube Marquard said Raymond didn't spit on the ball, he merely breathed on it and the ball got drunk — and he died at age 30.

Which takes some of the humor (but not all) out of this tale:

A waiter in one of Raymond's favorite taverns asked him how he threw his famous spitball. The pitcher picked up a glass tumbler as if it were a ball, demonstrated the grip, explained how he wetted two fingers, then wound up and fired the tumbler through the establishment's plate glass window.

"Notice," the pitcher said as he sat down, "the break."

Notes, quotes and comment

Carl Pavano went 2-5,
6.00 last season in
11 starts.

I forgot to mention Carl Pavano in Thursday's post about ex-Twins of recent vintage who have found little demand for their services this winter. On Thursday came word that Pavano suffered a ruptured spleen while snow shoveling in Vermont. He remains unsigned, and with this injury, he's likely to remain unsigned into the season.

---

In a long story on international signings in their Feb. 5 issue, Baseball America notes that the Twins have invested $150,000 in Johan Quezada, an 18-year-old right-handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic. Quezada, says the magazine's Ben Badler, is most notable for his projection: He's 6-foot-6 and 190 pounds. He throws now in the upper 80s, but if/as he gains weight and strength, that may well rise. He's definitely a project.

---

A couple of items tweeted out of Day 1 of Twins Fest: 

*General manager Terry Ryan told the AP's Jon Krawczynski the Twins aim to have Joe Mauer catch 120 games this year. He caught 74 last season (started 72), a workload that had many viewing him as transitioning out from catcher. 

It should be noted, however, that Mauer has only once started at least 120 games behind the plate (2008) and only one other time (2006) has he appeared in 120 games behind the plate (119 starts and one relief appearance). I'd love to see Mauer a truly regular catcher again, but I'll believe 120 games for him back there when I see it.

*Miguel Sano has apparently grown an inch since his last official measurement and will be listed this year as 6-foot-4. His increasing bulk is a big reason for the doubts that he can play third base in the majors when his time comes.

Benchmarks for 2013: Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee had a big September
in his 2011 callup but hit just .229
in 210 plate appearances last season
with the Twins

When I started this occasional series early this month, I listed six topics -- six areas of need for the Twins that one might reasonably use to gauge the effectiveness of Ron Gardenhire as manager in 2013.

Today I'm adding one that should have come to mind with the original post: Establishing Chris Parmelee.

Parmelee, Minnesota's first-round draft pick in 2006, will hit training camp next month as the presumptive starting right fielder. His best position is probably first base, but he's played considerable outfield as he toured the Twins minor league system.

He'll turn 25 during training camp, and it's time to find out what he can do with sustained playing time.

Right field is almost certainly not his long-term position. Oswaldo Arcia, a higher-end outfield prospect, is rocketing up the ladder; he is quite likely to lay claim to an outfield corner job by 2014. Veteran first baseman (and franchise icon) Justin Morneau is entering the last year of his contract; Parmelee could be shifted to first if the organization decides to cut ties with the 2006 MVP.

But before making any such decisions, the Twins need to determine what they have in Parmelee.

A year ago, the outside prospects gurus figured Parmelee was at best a platoon player or a "second-division" regular. But that was before he ripped Triple A at a .338/.457/.645 pace in 2012. His numbers in repeated call-ups weren't nearly so impressive, but they came with sporadic playing time.

That shouldn't be an issue in 2013. With two of last year's regular outfielders traded away, there should be plenty of at-bats available for Parmelee. And the Twins have reason to invest those at-bats in him, even if the outfield defense, with Josh Willingham in left and Parmelee in right, figures to be severely weakened as a result.

The Twins need to give Parmelee a chance to hit if they are to make the right choice on Morneau's future.