Thursday, May 31, 2012

The Liriano reset

Francisco Liriano threw 88 pitches in
six innings Wednesday, 51 of them
strikes. That's a ratio that works for him.
On the face of it, Francisco Liriano's start Wednesday validates the approach the Twins used to "fix" him.

He went six shutout innings, allowed three hits, struck out nine, walked two. He's back, right?

Well, maybe. The thing is, he was pitching against Oakland, and the A's entered the game with a .212 batting average. That's not a misprint; the team is hitting .212. It's like they're replaying 1968.

The batting averages for the A's lineup Wednesday are appalling:

.215
.245
.266
.220
.141
.208
.198
.178
.200

The A's didn't use a pinch hitter, presumably because the options on the bench weren't any better.

So I'll wait a bit to declare Liriano back on track. Shutting down Oakland doesn't necessarily mean much.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Twins killings: Turning the double play

Jamey Carroll, playing second base on Tuesday,
turns a first inning double play.
The Twins turned double plays in the first and second innings Tuesday night — and none after that, breaking a four-game streak with at least three double plays.

Those two DPs gave the Twins 70 double plays on the season — by far the most in baseball. (Toronto has the next highest total at 58, a dozen behind Minnesota.)

This is a mixed blessing — a multitude of double plays is characteristic of a team that allows too many baserunners, and this is certainly the case with the Twins.

But it also has links to some strengths. The Twins' opponents entered Tuesday hitting ground balls in 35 percent of their plate appearances —a high figure, just slightly behind Cleveland for highest in the AL. (This is fueled in large part by Scott Diamond; according to Baseball Reference, Diamond in his five starts has gotten 65 ground balls and 38 air balls.)

And there can be no serious question that getting Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Trevor Plouffe out of the middle of the infield (and Jamey Carroll and Brian Dozier into the middle infield) has helped tremendously.

Plouffe was a disaster at shortstop last year,  but he has been pretty decent in his first dozen or so games at third base — considerably better than I expected when he started playing there with Danny Valencia's demotion. He has been charged with two errors at third and has had a hand in seven double plays. It's a rare third baseman who has even as many DPs as errors — to have that kind of ratio is almost unheard of.

Valencia, in more than twice the playing time at third, had two errors and eight double plays — last year, 18 and 20. The contrast in around-the-horn double plays from 2011 to 2012 suggests that the improvement may have less to do with the third baseman than with the second baseman.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Anthony Slama and the bullpen

Anthony Slama: An
ERA under a half-run
a game, and no major
league job.
The Monday print column discussed Anthony Slama's continued exile to the minor leagues despite absurdly good statistics.

On Monday afternoon, Slama added to those stats -- another inning of relief, three more strikeouts. He now has 36 Ks in 21.1 innings for Rochester.

Not that it will do him any good. The Twins have plenty of problems, but the bullpen isn't one of them.

Consider the individuals:


  • Matt Capps may be one of the least popular Twins after yielding the game-losing homer on Saturday, but he is 10-for-11 in save opportunities. 
  • Brian Duensing's ERA is 2.92.
  • Alex Burnett's ERA is 2.84.
  • Glen Perkins has 25 strikeouts in 20 innings.
  • Jeff Gray, if one excludes a horrid 5-runs-in-0-innings outing in a game already out of control, would have an ERA of 2.17.
  • Jared Burton had a streak of 34 outs without allowing a hit.
  • Anthony Swarzak, in his relief outings, has held hitters to a .164 batting average. (He's been nowhere near as effective in his starts.)


That's the seven-man bullpen core. I don't see the man there who deserves to lose his job.

The pitching problems -- and there are plenty -- have been in the starting rotation, and even Slama's most fervent admirers aren't about to call for him to enter the rotation.

At some point, there will be a bullpen opening. That's the nature of pitching; people get hurt, people change roles, people get traded. Slama, even if one takes his remarkable minor league record at face value, is not suited to all bullpen roles; he's not, for example, qualified to be a LOOGY. The Twins recalled Jeff Manship this weekend to be an eighth reliever, because their perceived need was for a long man, and Slama is a ill fit for that job.

And even for the roles Slama could logically fill, he has serious competition: Deolis Guerra and Lester Oliveros are having fine seasons themselves, and unlike Slama, they are on the 40-man roster. Kyle Waldrop, who may well have made the roster out of spring training had he been healthy, is starting a rehab assignment.

As outstanding as Slama has been this year, it's perfectly plausible that the Twins would rather turn to one of those three if a bullpen opening arises. They get outs by throwing strikes. Slama does not.

Monday, May 28, 2012

Listen to the money talk

Francisco Liriano's
bullpen time was
always supposed to
be limited.
The Twins have had 15 quality starts -- games of at least six innings pitched and no more then three earned runs allowed -- in 45 games this season. No American League team has fewer.

Seven of those QS -- almost half -- have come from starters who opened the season in Triple A: four from P.J. Walters, three from Scott Diamond. Another four have come from Carl Pavano, whose 10 starts are more than Walters and Diamond have combined (a total of eight coming into Diamond's start today). That's 11 of the 15; the other four are spread among six others who've started games for the Twins already.

The Twins have the dismal record they have today largely because their starting rotation has been incompetent (starters ERA 6.60; OPS allowed .915).

And now two of the biggest offenders are returning to the rotation. Oh joy.

The returns of Francisco Liriano -- who is to start Wednesday -- and Nick Blackburn -- who is to make the first of two rehab starts Tuesday, then return to the Twins rotation next week -- were inevitable. Each is getting paid in excess of $5 million; each is supposed to be a rotation foundation piece. And each sports an ERA floating close to a run per inning (Liriano 8.47, Blackburn 8.37).

Nick Blackburn has
had one quality start
in seven tries, and
it just made the
minimum standard.
Liriano has allowed exactly the same number of earned runs (32) in exactly the same number of innings (34) as Jason Marquis, who figures to be officially released today. Liriano has allowed more baserunners than Marquis but fewer homers. The results have been equal, but Liriano gets another shot and Marquis is gone.

It's about the money. The Twins will eat the remainder of Marquis' $3 million; they're not eager to do the same with Liriano's $5.5 million, and even less eager, one assumes, to pay off the $8 million or so left on Blackburn's multi-year deal.

And, to be sure, good options aren't readily available. Anthony Swarzak has been no improvement over either as a starter; Cole DeVries, who figures to drop out of the rotation when Blackburn returns, is marginal at best; Liam Hendriks, the best prospect of the healthy starters in the Twins system, will probably benefit more from time in Triple A than from getting kicked around in the majors.

So it's back to Liriano and Blackburn. They're getting paid to pitch. Time for them to do it.



Sunday, May 27, 2012

Pic of the Week

Tampa Bay relief pitchers Fernando Rodney (left) and
Joel Peralta take in Monday's game from the bench.
We have a few generations of experience now with relief pitchers who strive for an "intimidating," unconventional appearance on the mound.

I think it started with Al Hrabosky, "the Mad Hungarian," a left-hander with the St. Louis Cardinals in the mid-1970s who famously feuded with owner Gussie Busch over his long hair and Fu Manchu moustache.

Certainly the pattern over the years has been for relievers to favor facial hair. (Not that being clean-shaven has damaged Mariano Rivera's effectiveness any.)

I don't seriously believe major league hitters are frightened by a goatee. Somebody who tries to take the mound in one of these helmets ... that might be another matter, although the intimidation factor would be raised a bit if the pitcher were throwing a javelin.

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Notes, quotes and comment

The Twins on Friday tweeted this photo of  Tom Kelly,
Jim Leyland and Tony LaRussa standing around
the batting cage talking golf. The three managers
account for six World Series titles among them. (The
fourth, No. 22, is Tigers coach Gene Lamont, himself a
former manager for eight years.)
Lots of baseball heavyweights at Target Field on Friday, and I'm not just talking about the rotund Prince Fielder.

Scott Boras, uberagent, was seen in Terry Ryan's suite with the Twins general manager; the assumption is that they were discussing the No. 2 pick in the draft. The new rules about bonuses installed by the labor deal have sharply decreased the importance of "advisors," but Boras is doubtless still a figure to be reckoned with.

Tony LaRussa put in an appearance. He's delivering World Series rings to players from last year's Cardinals team who aren't still with the Redbirds, and one such is P.J. Walters. Walters got into four games for St. Louis last year, and was long gone before the postseason, but his four innings (all in June) is enough to get a ring.

Walters isn't about to turn it down, of course, but I doubt he views it with as much pride as, let us say, Nick Punto does his. Punto was part of the team all year and played a lot (and well) during the postseason.

---

I mentioned the draft earlier. Baseball America's Jim Callis on Friday issued his second mock draft. He continues to have the Houston Astros taking Stanford RHP Mark Appel 1/1, with the Twins tabbing high school outfielder Bryon Buxton.

From Callis' subscription-only text:

As much as Minnesota needs pitching, it isn't expected to pass up the opportunity to take Buxton, who has the best all-around package of tools in the draft. If the Astros take Buxton, the Twins might take (San Francisco RHP Kyle) Zimmer over Appel or go with (Florida catcher Mike) Zunino and move Joe Mauer to another position.
Projected Pick: Byron Buxton.

The draft begins a week from Monday.

---

Anthony Swarzak, Friday's starter, worked despite flu-like symptoms, so his difficult outing might be forgiven. Francisco Liriano, on the other hand ... just not good.

It was being pointed out on Twitter that Swarzak's ERA as a starter this year is 8.34, as a reliever 3.06. We're only talking 18 innings or so in either catagory, but that's the kind of split that can get a guy pigeonholed.

Especially since he came into the game with a career ERA as a starter of 5.50 and as a reliever of 3.70.

I don't know of a specific reason he'd be better out of the bullpen, but the pattern is evident.



Friday, May 25, 2012

The franchise home run list

Justin Morneau cranks out the first of his two home runs
on Thursday. It was estimated at 451 feet, and ESPN
reported that it was the longest lefty-on-lefty homer of 2012.
Justin Morneau hit a pair of homers Thursday, which prompted a tweet from Dustin Morse noting that Morneau (193) had tied and passed Torii Hunter for seventh on the Twins all-time HR list.

Note the wording: The Twins list, not the franchise list. The Twins have been in Minnesota since 1961, which is a good stretch of years, but still shy of the 60 years in Washington.

When the Twins talk about their all-time leaders, they generally don't include the years in Washington. The all-time Twins leader in pitching wins, therefore, is Jim Kaat, with 190. But if you include the Senators years, it's Walter Johnson with 411. (Kaat's still second, and being second to the Big Train is no embarrassment.)

But when it comes to home runs, the Minnesota list is pretty much the franchise list. You have to get down to ninth on the list to find a player (Roy Sievers) whose career predated the shift to Minnesota.

The reason: Griffith Stadium. The long-departed Washington park was emphatically not conducive to power hitters. For most of its existence, it was 405 feet down the left field line — and got deeper from there. Right field wasn't so spacious, but it did sport a 30-foot wall.

In 1945, the Senators hit one home run at home all season — and it was an inside-the-parker. Sam Rice, who starred for Washington for 19 years and made the Hall of Fame, never hit a ground-rule homer in Griffith.

When Calvin Griffith inherited the team, he shortened the fences and made life a bit easier for right-handed sluggers like Sievers, Jim Lemon and a youngster named Killebrew.