The Sunday Funnies

Hughie Jennings was the manager of some fine Detroit Tigers teams in the early 1900's. His lineups boasted probably the two best hitters in the American League in Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford, and the Tigers won three straight pennants (1907-09) but no World Series.

Jennings gets a letter one day from a small town in Michigan. The writer says he's a pitcher, a great pitcher, says he can strike Cobb out on three pitches, asks for a tryout and $1.80 in train fare to come to Detroit to prove his stuff.  Jennings, being a manager, is always looking for another pitcher, so he sends the $1.80.

The guy warms up and Cobb steps up to the plate. Cobb hammers the first pitch from the stranger off the fence in right. He pulls the second over the right field wall. He clouts the third over the center-field fence.

Jennings has seen enough of this nonsense and trundles out to the mound. "Well," he says disgustedly to the stranger who has wasted his time, "what have you got to say for yourself?"

The wannabe pitcher looks in at the batter. "You know," he says, "I don't believe that's Ty Cobb up there."

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The other 2008 trades

What: Craig Monroe, acquired from the Chicago Cubs in what Baseball Reference describes as a "conditional deal."
When: Nov. 13, 2007
Value: 3 win shares. -0.8 WAR before being released in August
Twins motivation: Outfield depth.

This was Bill Smith's first transaction as general manager, and it was flawed in two crucial aspects.

First, he apparently misunderstood the finances and didn't realize that by acquiring Monroe directly from the Cubs he couldn't offer Monroe as low a salary as he had intended. Second was what I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: Monroe had always hit the Twins well, and the Twins mistook that for an indication of his talent. They didn't comprehend that the rest of the league got him out.

At least he didn't cost the Twins anything. No "player to be named" was ever named.

R. A Dickey: Now a rotation
cornerstone with the Mets

What: Traded RHP R.A. Dickey to Seattle for C Jair Fernandez
When: 3-28-08
Value: Fernandez has not reached the majors; Dickey had 3 win shares and 0.4 WAR with Seattle before being released.
Motivation: minor league catching depth

A rather involved series of transactions here. The Twins had signed Dickey, who was in the process of converting himself into a knuckleballer, to a minor league deal just before the winter meetings. The Mariners then took Dickey in the Rule V draft. As opening day approached, Seattle traded Fernandez to the Twins for the rights to Dickey, which allowed the M's to send him to the minors.

Fernandez was a Class A catcher at the time; he has bounced around the Twins minor league system since, always as a backup. He became a minor league free agent last month.

Seattle released Dickey after the 2008 season; the Twins signed him again, and released him after 2009. He has since emerged as a reliable starter with the Mets. The Twins were a little too early on him.

What: Claimed INF Sergio Santos on waivers
When: 5-16-08
Value: None as a minor league infielder
Motivation: ?

Sergio Santos in 2008 was an infielder who couldn't hit but had a strong arm. The Twins picked him up apparently with the notion of converting him to pitching, but he was unwilling to make the switch, and the Twins cut him loose. The White Sox picked him up for 2009, convinced him late in the season to try pitching, and he ended 2011 as their closer.

As with Dickey, right idea at the wrong time.

What: Claimed LHP Craig Breslow on waivers
When: 5-29-08
Value: Six win shares, 1.1 WAR that season with Twins; 23 win shares, 4 WAR from 2008 to now.
Motivation: Bullpen depth

A good pickup by the Twins, negated to a degree by Ron Gardenhire's inexplicable unwillingness to let him pitch in game situations.

What: Sold RHP Livan Hernandez to Colorado in a waiver deal
When: 8-6-2008
Value: Three win shares total for season, -1.7 WAR for season.
Motivation: Making room in the starting rotation for Francisco Liriano.

The Twins signed the rubber-armed veteran to anchor their rotation in the wakes of the Garza and Santana trades. By midseason Liriano had started pitching well in the minors, and Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins had established themselves as more effective than Hernandez.

The Twins over the years have taken outside criticism for this kind of early-season veteran use. I think it's unfair. Signing a Hernandez, a Ramon Ortiz, a Sidney Ponson is only partly hoping for a surprise. It's also buying time for a younger pitcher to mature or rehab in the minors.

"Everyday Eddie"
Guardado ended his
career in spring
training 2010
with the Nationals.

What: Traded RHP Mark Hamberger to Texas for LHP Eddie Guardado
When: 8-25-08
Value: Hamberger made his major league debut in September 2011, earning one win share and no WAR. Guardado pitched seven mostly ineffective innings for the Twins.
Motivation: Bullpen help.

The Twins were chasing the White Sox; the bullpen was thin; Gardenhire, for some reason, wouldn't use Breslow; Guardado, despite a badly frayed shoulder, was having a good season with Texas.

The Twins gave up a Class A arm who hadn't even been drafted for the veteran. This one could begin to backfire big time, as Hamburger has pushed his way to the majors.

What: Sent RHP Brian Bass to Baltimore in a conditional deal
When: 9-5-08
Value: He has had 4 win shares and -0.5 WAR since the deal.
Motivation: Addition by subtraction.

As with the Monroe deal, no player to be named was ever named.

Tony-O, Kitty Kaat and the Hall of Fame

One of the myriad happenings next week at the Winter Meeting will be the balloting by the current version of the Veterans Committee.

The Hall of Fame's grand poo-baas keep tinkering with the Veterans Committee, trying to achieve a system that

• actually elects somebody
• without succumbing to the cronyism that has periodically infected the VC.

It's probably a hopeless mission. The biggest problem here is that the most obvious candidates get swept in by the writers and never reach the Veterans Committee, which winds up trying to split the hairs between Jim Kaat and Tommy John. There are plenty of HoF inductees I consider mistakes; almost all of them came courtesy of the VC.

The panel next week will be picking from a specific, prescreened, list of players and executives from a specific era of the game. Chris Jaffe at the Hardball Times website predicts that Ron Santo will get in, and thinks it likely that at least one of Tony Oliva and Kaat will as well, although Jaffe is quick to concede that it's difficult to make a good prediction on the VC when the rules keep changing.

Santo, Oliva, Kaat, Gil Hodges --- these are the most likely choices. My sense of it is that there are several worse players at their positions already inducted, I wouldn't whine much if these four remain out, and I won't complain at all if any get in.

Well, Santo ... I'm about 95 percent sure he should be in. Third base is rather unrepresented in the Hall, and there are only about five or six third basemen in history with better credentials. (Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews ... Bill James puts Santo ahead of Brooks Robinson, but it's clear that their contemporaries thought Brooks was much the better player.)

My only issue with putting Santo in the Hall is that the Cubs of his era have Billy Williams at the top of his game, they have Ferguson Jenkins at the top of his game, they have a fading but still useful Ernie Banks, they have solid regulars in Glenn Beckert, Don Kessinger, Randy Hundley, Jim Hickman, Johnny Callison, they have Ken Holtzman, Milt Pappas and Bill Hands backing Jenkins in the rotation, they have a HofF manager in Leo Durocher -- and what did they win? Nothing. Not even a divisional title. How many legit Hall of Famers can you assemble without winning anything?

The Twins of Oliva and Kaat's era are a bit of a disappointment too, but they have a pennant and a pair of divisional titles to show. They had the misfortune to be up against an historically great Baltimore Orioles assembly.

I wrote a column long ago about Oliva and Kaat and the Hall. They symbolize a dual approach to HoF voting on the part of the electorate. The writers like career length from hitters and really high peaks from pitchers. Oliva had an eight-year span in which he was about as good a hitter as you'd find. The writers felt that wasn't enough. Kaat had a great season and a lot of good ones and lasted a long time. The writers felt that wasn't enough.

Kaat's candidacy is hurt a bit by the fact that in his prime years there was only one Cy Young awarded for the two leagues, and when he won 25 games in 1966 Sandy Koufax got the award. They started giving out two Cy Youngs the very next season. Put a Cy Young on Kitty's resume, and I think the writers would have given his candidacy more play.

A rough draft of the position players

It's still relatively early in the offseason, but the Winter Meetings are next week, and that's probably the high point for the hot stove league.

The Twins have made a fair number of roster changes, mainly focused on the position players. Let's see if we can compile an approximation of who'll be playing here come April from the players on hand:

Ryan Doumit is
one of two free
agents signed so
far by the Twins.

C: Joe Mauer
1B/DH: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
3B: Danny Valencia
SS: Jamey Carroll
LF: Ben Revere
CF: Denard Span
RF: Rene Tosoni
DH/1B: Ryan Doumit

Bench:
IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
IF: Luke Hughes
OF: Trevor Plouffe
C: Drew Butera

That's 13, which leaves 12 spots for pitchers. Now, let me emphasize again: This is based on players on hand. I expect more activity between now and April. But this array may help us see where Terry Ryan will try to go.

What most grabs my attention at the moment is the C/1B/RF/DH nexus:

• It's entirely possible that Morneau's concussion history will make him a DH.
• Both the Twins and Doumit have already downplayed the notion that he would see significant time at first base. Catcher, yes; DH, yes; right field, yes. First base, not so much.
• If Morneau's a DH and Doumit isn't a first baseman, there's a significant hole in what is normally an important offensive position. Luke Hughes ain't the answer.
• If Morneau can play first and Doumit spends most of his time as a designated hitter, I have right field as a Plouffe-Tosoni platoon, which also probably isn't optimal.
• And, of course, all this assumes that Mauer is indeed going to catch 130 games.

The word from the metro writers is that the Twins still hold out hope that they can retain Michael Cuddyer, and certainly he would be a good fit in the right field-first base-designated hitter mix. The outside interest in Cuddyer doesn't seem as high as anticipated. But I still doubt that the Twins want to give him a raise, and I would think they'd be tempted by two compensatory draft picks to decline to put up a fight.

Terry Ryan and Co. face two questions here. First, are the Twins close enough to contending to justify keeping Cuddyer, or are they better off with the picks? Second, can Morneau play in the field?

They have no way of confidently answering Question No. 2 now. And that makes it difficult to answer Question No. 1.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Santana trade

Johan Santana won two Cy Young awards
while with the Twins (2004 and 2006). He now
gets $25 million a year from the Mets and did
not pitch in 2011.

When: Feb. 2, 2008
What: LHS Johan Santana to the New York Mets for CF Carlos Gomez and RHPs Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
Value: Santana has earned 49 win shares and 14.4 WAR since the trade. Gomez has 30 WS, 4.1 WAR; Humber 13 WS and 3.4 WAR; Mulvey 0 and -0.5. Guerra has not reached the majors.
Twins motivation: Avoiding Santana's walk year; secondary motivations, trimming payroll, adding an outfielder.

Underlying the decision to trade Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason was the minor circus that accompanied Torii Hunter during his 2007 walk year. It seemed to team management that every road trip brought the same story: Where will Hunter play next? And Hunter was only too willing to fuel the speculation.

Correctly or not, Ron Gardenhire and Co. felt that was a factor in the team's decline in 2007. When, in the immediate wake of that disappointing season, Santana indicated that he was not likely to re-sign with the Twins, the brass felt it best to trade him immediately.

The Twins say
Deolis Guerra was
effective after being
moved to the bullpen
last season in
Double A.

It's an arguable decision. The Twins could have kept Santana for 2008, offered him arbitration and pocketed a pair of draft picks when he left. On the other hand, the media circus that accompanied the winter meetings that offseason, when there was a fresh rumor every few hours, suggests that the issue of Santana's future would have dominated the 2008 season.

Just going off the results, however, hanging on to Santana for 2008 might have worked better for Minnesota. Gomez never fully earned Gardenhire's confidence and ultimately lost his starting spot in the outfield to Denard Span. Humber washed out with the Twins and then Kansas City before emerging last season as a respectable starter for the White Sox. Mulvey's career appears to have stalled. Only Guerra remains in the Twins system, and he looks less like a useful piece each year.

Theoretically, the four players the Twins got in the Santana trade were more than the equivalent of a (low) first round pick and a sandwich pic. It simply didn't turn out that way.

Gomez and Mulvey were more valuable to the Twins in terms of what they got in future trades than for what they did in Minnesota.

A Brian Duensing theory

Brian Duensing has made 50 starts and 59 relief appearances
for the Twins during the past three seasons.

Brian Duensing's 2011 season was shipwrecked on right-handed hitters. Righties hit .330/.387/.560 against the southpaw; lefties hit .217/.242./.280.

That's taking the platoon advantage to extremes.

That massive platoon split has many thinking that Duensing would be better suited to bullpen work, and that was, at one point, the Twins' idea with him. But he fared well in the starting rotation in 2009 and 2010.

What went so horribly sour for him in 2011? My guess is that he lost his change-up.

The platoon advantage is rooted in pitch movement. A left-hander's breaking balls — curves and sliders — move in on a right-handed hitter, away from a left-handed hitter. (A right-hander's, obviously, move in the opposite direction.) These are pitches that leave the hand coming between the thumb and forefinger.

Change-ups — and in particular the circle change, a favorite of the Twins organization — generally move in the opposite direction. The circle change is thrown with the thumb and forefinger curled together and with the twist for the forearm so that the ball is coming out of the hand on the side of the little finger. This gives it a reverse curve, or screwball, effect. (Indeed, Warren Spahn's description of how he threw his famous screwball sounded much like the circle change.)

Many lefties with noted change-ups — such as Johan Santana and Tom Glavine — have a tendency for reverse platoon splits. Part of it, no doubt, is that teams tend to sit their marginal left-handed hitters against quality lefty starters, but part of it is that their change-ups move down and in to left-handed hitters, and that is, as a general rule, their butter zone. These pitchers try to get lefties out with fastballs and breaking balls, right-handers with fastballs and change-ups.

That Duesning is effective against lefties suggests that he has a good breaking ball; his struggles with righties, which was much worse in 2011 than in the previous season, suggest that his change-up was ineffective. Fix that, I think, and he could still be an useful member of the starting rotation — and that is much more valuable than a LOOGY.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Young-Garza trade

Almost all of Delmon
Young's value with the
Twins came in 2010.

When: Nov. 28, 2007
What: The Twins sent RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay for RF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie.
Values: Garza has earned 44 win shares and 11.9 WAR (wins above replacement) since the trade; Bartlett 64 WS and 13.9 WAR; Morlan has yet to play in the majors. Young has earned 52 WS, 1.3 WAR; Harris 19 WS, -0.2 WAR; Pridie 4 WS, 0.3 WAR. The three players Tampa Bay received have earned 108 win shares and 25.8 wins above replacement since the trade; the three players the Twins got earned 75 WS, 1.4 WAR. None of the six remain with the same team.
Twins motivation: Plugging outfield holes.

When Bill Smith inherited the general manager's job in September 2007, he faced two large and obvious issues: The pending free agency of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana's walk year.

Connected to the Hunter issue was that the 2007 Twins had a gaping hole in left field. Since it was quite obvious that the Twins were not about to meet Hunter's price, Smith was looking at two vacancies in the 2008 outfield.

Young was an intriguing trade target -- young, strong, he had hit .288 and driven in 90-plus runs as a 21-year-old in 2007. He appeared fully capable of living up to his status as the No. 1 overall pick in 2003.

Garza was also a first-round draft pick with intriguing talent. The Twins had a surplus of young starting pitchers and a shortage of usable outfielders; Garza and Young were the obvious cornerstones of the trade.

Brendan Harris washed out as
a second baseman early in 2008
and spent his Twins tenure
shuffling between third base,
shortstop and the bench.

But Young was not only a former first pick but somewhat more accomplished in the majors already. The Rays needed something more -- and that something more turned the trade in their favor.

I have always believed, reading between the lines, that Ron Gardenhire was never sold on Bartlett as his shortstop. He was reluctant to play Bartlett and only installed him in the lineup in 2006 when then-GM Terry Ryan gave him no choice by dealing away veteran Juan Castro. In 2007, Bartlett committed a string of costly early-inning errors down the stretch that helped bury the Twins' final chances of getting back into the race.

It was the exchange of shortstops -- Bartlett for Harris -- that made this a plus trade for Tampa Bay. Garza for Young is even enough to justify given the needs of the Twins at the time; Pridie and Morlan are essentially irrelevant. But Harris' defensive deficiencies -- which were evident in the defensive metrics at the time -- kept him from becoming a regular with the Twins. And the Twins haven't had a 100-game shortstop season since dumping Bartlett.

Neither Young nor Garza have so far truly lived up to expectations. Both were traded within the past year, and there are reports that the Cubs are shopping Garza around.