The cost of a strikeout arm

Jonathan Sanchez was the third starter for the Giants when
they won the World Series in 2010, but was their fifth
best starter in 2011 (4-7, 4.26).

We interrupt our musings on the Twins front office shakeup to comment on a trade made Monday: The Kansas City Royals sent outfielder Melky Cabrera to San Francisco for starter Jonathan Sanchez and minor league lefty Ryan Verdugo.

This is of interest to Twins fans not only because the Royals are in their division, but because it suggests what the trade market looks like for starting pitchers, in particular starting pitchers who get strikeouts — which is the kind of starting pitcher the Twins could use more of.

Cabrera had a big year for Kansas City: .305/.339/470 while playing center field. His OPS+ — a stat that adjusts on base-plus-slugging for home field bias — was equal to Michael Cuddyer's. This was easily Cabrera's best season, and he's not particularly likely to replicate it, but his value was probably at its peak.

And what the Royals got for him is a power arm who led the league in walks in 2010, who made just 19 starts because of injury in 2011, who walked almost six men per nine inning when he did pitch, and who is eligible for free agency after 2012.

Yikes.

There basically two outcomes for Kansas City from this trade:

• Sanchez continues to be wild and/or hurt, in which case the Royals will let somebody else try to harness his talent in 2013;
• Sanchez finds sufficient command and health to be effective, in which case he's likely to be overpriced for Kansas City.

There's not much long-term upside for the Royals in this exchange, and yet he was worth giving up one of their better hitters.

Further thoughts on the return of Terry Ryan

Terry Ryan reportedly asked for the "interim" tag
on his title, but his superiors are hoping he's back for years.

One of the initial takes Monday on the return of Terry Ryan as the Twins general manager was the sense of 'We're bringing the band back together." Not only is Ryan back atop the baseball hierarchy, but Wayne Krivsky, who had been Ryan's No. 2, is returning to the organization.

It's not precisely the same bunch in the same jobs as a decade ago, when the Twins began a long stretch as the dominant franchise in their division, but it's close.

And the needs and status of the club have changed. Target Field has lifted the Twins to baseball's middle class. Ryan indicated that the 2012 payroll will be around $100 million, which is (a) considerably more than he had to play with in his first go-around as GM and (b) some $15 million less than Bill Smith had for a payroll in 2011.

A whopping chunk of that $100 million is dedicated to Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and the Twins have about $82 million already committed. Having $18 million available to fill out the roster almost certainly means Michael Cuddyer, Joe Nathan and Jason Kubel will get more lucrative offers elsewhere. That may prove, in the long haul, to be a blessing, but in the short term it makes the job of improving the team more difficult.

I've said repeatedly that the first key to 2012 is the health of Mauer and Morneau. If the M&M Boys are as unproductive as they were in 2011, nothing else matters. The front office shuffle doesn't change that fact. It may bring change to how conditioning, rehab and treatment are handled.

Smith was publicly protective of the medical staff, at times oddly so, even as projected returns for injured players were consistently erroneous and even as that staff seemed sometimes to go out of its way to make players, Mauer in particular, look bad. Ryan on Monday took note of the problem getting injured players back on the field. Recognizing the problem is the first step in fixing it.

Bill Smith out as Twins general manager

Bill Smith and Terry Ryan in 2007, when Smith took over
for the semi-retiring Ryan. Now Ryan is stepping in for
the fired Smith.

Terry Ryan is back in charge of the Minnesota Twins on-field product, at least for now; Bill Smith's future with the club is uncertain, but he isn't the general manager anymore.

Verrry interesting, given that Jim Pohlad had implied that the 2011 disaster was not sufficient reason to clean the organizational house -- an assessment with which I largely agreed. So what changed?

From CEO Pohlad:

The Twins' goal is to get better in 2012 and beyond. Bill was equally motivated to achieve that goal but we differed in the scope and approach that was required.

I infer from that portion of Pohlad's statement that there was division within the organization over where the club stands. Are they realistic contenders in 2012, or is it time to tear it down and rebuild? If the former, it's reason to bid heavily to retain Michael Cuddyer; if the latter, it's reason to wish him well and move on (Cuddyer being one concrete example of how that abstract question applies to the immediate offseason).

I don't know where Smith stood on that basic question. We'll see as the winter progresses what the operating consensus is.

Perhaps more pertinent: I don't know, not being a fly on the wall, how the player evaluation process worked with a GM who was more an administrator than a scout. The talent evaluators around Smith -- in particular Ryan, Mike Radcliff, Tom Kelly, the already-departed Joe McIlvane -- were by and large the same people evaluating players when Ryan was on top of the heap. I doubt everybody involved agreed on every move, and perhaps -- perhaps -- there was a growing sense/realization that Smith was consistently making the wrong choice when confronted with diverging opinions.

One other thought about Monday's move: That Ryan is being described as "interim" general manager suggests that he's not truly invested in getting back into the job. I wonder if the pending return of Wayne Krivsky -- who, as I said during the weekend, probably would have been Ryan's successor after the 2007 season had he not already taken the Cincinnati job -- is intended to get him familiar once more with the Twins organization before turning the reins over to him. Another in-house possibility would be Radcliff, who was blocked from interviewing for the Orioles job. But if the intent is to make Radcliff the top dog, there was probably no need to install an interim GM.

Contemplating Michael Cuddyer

Michael Cuddyer : 680 games
in the outfield, 210 at first
base, 171 at third base, 79
at second and one as a
pitcher in the major leagues.

Reports out of Philadelphia have the Phillies hot on the trail of Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer, whose wife is pregnant with Twins, reportedly would like to get his free agency stuff out of the way before the little Cuddys come.

We've known all along that there would be suitors for Cuddyer. Other teams that have been linked to him include the Red Sox, the Cubs, the Rockies, the Giants. Some of them make more sense than others, but the Twins were not looking at a buyers market for him.

And I've reconciled myself to the notion of a Cuddyer-less 2012 Twins. Sure, there's a place for him on the roster -- but he'll turn 33 before the next season begins, and a three-year contract for him doesn't make long-term sense. On a one-year deal, he blocks nobody; beyond that, he gets in the way of youngsters like Joe Benson and Chris Parmelee.

Cuddyer is a Type A free agent. Assuming that the current system of draft pick compensation for rated free agents remains in place this winter, he's worth a couple of draft picks for the Twins if he leaves, for the Twins would certainly offer arbitration. (If he's intent on signing before his wife gives birth, he'll sign before the deadline to decide and the question will become moot.)

Let's say Cuddyer signs with somebody else. I would expect Trevor Plouffe to be first in line for the "right-handed stick who plays multiple positions, none of them particularly well" job. (If Cuddy leaving takes Plouffe finally and officially out of the shortstop mix, it's a bonus.)

Right field might be, for a year or so, filled by a platoon of Rene Tosoni and Plouffe (although Ron Gardenhire typically avoids straight platoons, it makes sense with that pair), or the Twins could use a one-year stopgap while they wait for Benson. (I come back, again, to Ryan Doumit.)

Who takes on the "vocal clubhouse leader" job ... that's another question.

The Sunday Funnies

As I said last week, I'm launching today an offseason Sunday theme: The Sunday Funnies, amusing baseball stories, some of which may actually be true. I'm less concerned with accuracy than the story, frankly.

One could probably do a winter's worth of these posts just with Rickey Henderson stories. I'm going to limit myself to one a month, but Rickey will lead off here, just as he did in real life.

---

Henderson is playing for future major league manager Tom Trebelhorn in the lower rungs of the A's farm system, and  the manager sits down with the young outfielder to explain what they want from him. You're going to run on your own, Trebelhorn tells Henderson. We want you to learn to steal bases, and you're going to learn faster if I'm not telling you when to go. So I won't be giving you signals.


A few days later Henderson comes back to Treblehorn. Man, you're giving everybody else signals, you're not giving me signals, I feel left out. Trebelhorn again explains why he's not giving Henderson signals, but Rickey's adamant -- I want to be treated like everyone else. Give me signals.

So Trebelhorn goes through his signs. This is the steal, this is the bunt, this is the hit-and-run, this is the squeeze -- and if I wipe the letters on my shirt, that's the take-off sign. It takes off whatever play I just called. Got it? Got it.

Game starts. Henderson gets on base. Treblehorn, coaching at third because that's what minor league managers do, gives Henderson the steal sign, followed by the takeoff sign -- he wants to teach the kid a lesson by depriving him of steal opportunities -- and Henderson promptly steals second.

Treblehorn gives Rickey every sign -- steal, hit and run, bunt, even the suicide squeeze -- and follows each with the takeoff sign. Henderson steals third on the next pitch.

Treblehorn puts his arm around Henderson as the runner dusts himself off. Rickey, that was beautiful, that's exactly the way we want you to steal bases -- but didn't you see me give the takeoff sign?

"Sure," says Henderson, "and I took off for second, and I took off for third."

Notes, quotes and comments

Philadelphia? Right down there.

Item: Jim Thome lands a job with the Phillies. One year, $1.25 million, pending a physical.

Since nobody knows when Ryan Howard, who tore his Achilles tendon in making the last out of the division series oh so long ago, will play, this signing has triggered immediate speculation that Thome will actually play first base at least part time. Ain't gonna happen; wouldn't be prudent.

The Phillies have carried pinch-hit specialists the past few years (Matt Stairs, Russ Gload), and that will be Thome in 2012.

Item: The Twins refused to allow the Baltimore Orioles to interview Mike Radcliff for their vacant general manager's job, citing a pending front office reorganization, and are apparently about to bring back former assistant GM Wayne Krivsky.

(The Krivsky item comes via the Star Tribune, and I'm going to be sparing with my links to them now that they've erected a paywall.)

There are only 30 general managers' jobs in baseball, and normally they're pretty coveted. The Orioles job is not. There are basically five reasons: 1) The New York Yankees; 2) the Boston Red Sox; 3) the Tampa Bay Rays; 4) the Toronto Blue Jays — the O's division rivals all have excessive resources and/or very sharp GMs, so the competition is fierce — and 5) (which  may be the biggest reason) the Baltimore ownership.

Radcliff was the Twins scouting director for more than a decade under Terry Ryan and got the title vice president of player personnel when Ryan retired and Bill Smith ascended to the GM post. He has seldom been linked to other jobs, and it's entirely possible that the denial of permission came not only because the Twins want to keep him but because he's not interested in working for Peter Angelos.

Krivsky probably would have been Ryan's successor had he not decamped for the Reds GM post in 2006. He didn't get a clean shot in Cincinnati; the owner there dumped him for Walt Jocketty quickly when Jocketty left St. Louis.

I assume Krivsky will fill the "assistant to the general manager" post vacated by Joe McIlvane (himself a former GM, with San Diego and the Mets) in September. He took a similar job with Seattle. I suspect the Twins knew then that they were going to bring Krivsky back.

Bob Forsch was a staple of Whitey
Herzog's rotations in St. Louis,
pitching for all three of the White Rat's
pennant winners (1982, 1985, 1987).

Item: Bob Forsch, who pitched against the Twins in the 1987 World Series, who is third on the St. Louis Cardinals' all-time wins list, who threw out the first ball before Game Seven of the just-completed World Series, died.

Another piece of evidence that those of us who were adults during the 1987 World Series are getting old.

Forsch, an 11-game winner during the regular season that year for the Cardinals, worked out of the bullpen during the Series and picked up the win in Game Four with 2.2 innings of one-run relief. He was also the guy who threw the grand slam pitch to Dan Gladden in Game One and who loaded the bases for Kent Hrbek's slam in Game Six.

Forsch had two no-hitters in his career, the only Cardinals hurler to throw more than one.

Perhaps even more rare than a pair of no-hitters is 168 wins for a guy with such a low strikeout rate. It helped, to be sure, that he had such glovemen as Ozzie Smith, Willie McGee and Tommy Herr behind him, and a very forgiving park as his home environment.

A new voice of summer

Cory Provus inherits the lead radio job for the Twins.

The Twins are likely to make many moves this offseason. Few will be as important to the fans as the one they made Thursday, when Cory Provus was named to replace John Gordon as the lead radio announcer.

Provus has been with the Brewers for the past few years, and it's possible that I've heard a smidgen of his work, but if so it wasn't particularly memorable. But while I don't really know how he'll do in the Twins booth, I have to assume he'll be an improvement over Gordon's inattentiveness.

Tell me where the base runners wound up after the play, Cory — heck, tell me specifically if the ball was fair or foul — and we'll be fine.

Provus represents a major move for the organization because the broadcasters are a significant, perhaps primary, connection between the fans and the games, and because the Twins history suggests he's going to be around for decades, even generations. He's 33. He could be in the booth for the next 40 years or so.

The radio gig may not be as prominent was it was when Herb Carneal was in his prime, because far more games are on TV today then when I was becoming a fan, but it remains important, remains prestigious -- prestigious enough for Ryan Lefebvre, the lead TV guy in Kansas City, to consider the job. (As a newspaper guy, I was amused to see that the Star Tribune played a piece saying that Lefebvre was the leading candidate prominently on the sports front, but played a follow-up report that he wouldn't get the job inside.)

Herb and Halsey Hall fed the interest of the young me some 40 years ago, Halsey, Herb, Gordon -- these are the men who've led the radio crews, who've given voice to Minnesota summers. Now that role, or what remains of it with the rise of daily cable game broadcasts, falls to Provus.