On Morneau's head and the Arizona Fall League

Another injury in a
lost season for the
2006 MVP.

Justin Morneau dove for a ball on Sunday, had headaches on Monday and was diagnosed with post-concussion syndrome.

Uh-oh.

I don't doubt the description offered Tuesday by the trainer: That on one of the tests involved he tests slightly below baseline. I don't quarrel with Morneau's statement that what he has now is nothing like last season's problems, which cost him four months of play and really didn't clear up during the offseason.

I still see reason for concern here. The man dove for a ball and ran the bases aggressively Sunday, and he came up with a headache. He's had multiple concussions over the years, and that raises the possibility that he'll be increasingly more susceptible to them.

And that's not good for anybody.

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Seven Twins prospects were named to play in the Arizona Fall League for the Mesa Solar Sox: Scott Diamond, Aaron Hicks, Brian Dozier, Cole DeVries, Chris Herrmann, Bret Jacobson and Bruce Pugh.

Chris Herrmann was a
sixth-round selection
in the 2009 draft.

Diamond is currently filling a gap in the major league rotation; in fact, he starts this afternoon. DeVries, Jacobson and Pugh are relief pitchers with live arms; they aren't particularly hot prospects, but they can't be ruled out.   

The best prospects are the three position players. Hicks is a real talent who is grinding slowly up the ladder; he had an up-and-down season in Fort Myers (High A), and his final numbers won't be impressive. I'm surprised to see him on this list, as the AFL is supposed to be for advanced prospects; I suspect he's a "taxi squad" player who'll get only limited exposure.

Dozier, a middle infielder, had a breakout year, and he may get a September call-up after New Britain's season is over. But I suspect the Twins will skip that to focus on further evaluating the likes of Trevor Plouffe, Luke Hughes and Tsuyoshi Nishioka.

Herrmann is a catcher/outfielder who is apparently capable at both defensively and has put up strong OBPs in a rapid rise to Double A. That's an intriguing skill set for a bench player on a roster with Joe Mauer splitting time between catcher, DH and other positions.

What's almost as interesting here are two important pitchers who didn't get named: Alex Wimmers and David Bromberg. Both had very limited innings this summer. Wimmers lost his command totally and had to have his delivery overhauled; Bromberg broke his arm on a line drive in April. I had thought either or both could be named to give them more innings. Perhaps the Twins have more extensive winter ball plans in mind for them.

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Tragic number: 10

Knocking on the cellar door

Poetry in motion: Danny Valencia and Tsuyoshi Nishioka
turn this soft grounder into an infield single — and allow
a runner to score from second base.

Decades ago, one of my buddies was in a play. I don't remember the name or the plot. All I remember was one of Ron's lines, which he delivered with gusto: "Down in the cellar with the rest of the rats!"

Which, it becomes increasingly clear, is the Twins ultimate destination this season. Monday night's sloppy loss reduced the tragic number to 12. It also left Minnesota a mere half-game behind the Kansas City Royals in their desperate battle for last place in baseball's worst division.

When Dick Bremer is repeatedly conceding that the Twins won't win the division — and he seemed to alert the audience to this fact Monday night with the frequency of CNN flashing "breaking news" on two-day-old stories — things have gotten so bad that even the professional optimists of the hometeam broadcast booths can't ignore it.

Monday morning's post cited some sophisticated defensive numbers that put a spotlight on Danny Valencia's shortcomings defensively. Joe Christensen gets specific on what he's doing wrong, particularly on plays to his glove side.

Note there the dissonance between the player and the manager. The manager is focused on the runs the Twins gave away Monday; the third baseman is focused on the runs the Twins hitters didn't create.

When everything is broken, it's not easy to identify what to fix first. The weekend announcement that the Twins will add three days to spring training — not for games, but for defensive drills — suggested that the first priority is going to be defense. Gardenhire's postgame talk about the defensive flaws suggests the same.

Measuring the defense

The Twins have had far too much of this in 2011.

Monday's print column deals with the question of who should play center field for the Twins in 2012, Ben Revere or Denard Span, and in the process of writing that I gathered up this information on the Twins overall defense that won't fit.

Using the two sophisticated defensive metrics available from Baseball Info Systems on my iPad app, the Twins entered the weekend:

• Two runs below average at first base (-2 total); 
• Minus 8 at second base (-10 total); 
• Minus 22 at third base (-32 total); 
• Minus 15 at shortstop (-47); 
• Plus four in left field (-43); 
• Plus 17 in center (-26); 
• Minus 5 in right (-31) 
• Dead even at catcher (-31); 
• Plus 10 at pitcher (-21 total)

In plus-minus, which measures plays made or not made compared to MLB average:

• Zero difference at first base;
• Minus 11 at second (-11);
• Minus 25 at third (-36)
• Minus 18 at short (-54)
• Plus three in left (-51)
• Plus 34 in center (-17)
• Minus 19 in right (-36)
• Zero at catcher (-36)
• Plus five at pitcher (-31)

Comments: 

1) The Twins entered the weekend having allowed 77 more runs than the average American League team. The BIS numbers suggest the defense is to blame for 21 of those runs. I’m inclined to believe that they understate the defensive problems.

2) There are voices on the Internet complaining that Ron Gardenhire is overly critical of Danny Valencia. These numbers suggest that Valencia's defense deserves heavy criticism.

3) BIS itself is wary of putting a lot of weight on a player's single-year numbers, and playing time at every position other than third base is badly fractured, meaning that sample size make individual conclusions even more suspect. 

But with that caveat, I'll note that Alexi Casilla and Matt Tolbert accounted for 517 innings at shortstop, while Trevor Plouffe and Tsuyoshi Nishioka combined for 637. Casilla and Tolbert (as shortstops) combined are -3 in plus-minus, zero in runs saved — in other words, almost exactly average defense. Plouffe and Nishioka are a combined -15 and -15. Similarly, the second base hole is almost entirely Plouffe (-8 and -7 in just 86 innings).

4) The obvious problem areas defensively: Third base, shortstop, right field, second base.

Pic of the Week

Prince Fielder after a seventh-inning RBI single on
Friday. No, I don't understand what he's doing either.

Prince Fielder is having a Prince Fielder season: Hitting around .300, leading the National League in RBIs and intentional walks. At this point, 2011 will mark the third time that he'll be top five in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and RBIs.

He's one of those players whose run-of-the-mill season makes him an MVP candidate, and will probably not win the award until he has a season that's even bigger than usual. If you give him the MVP for this year, why didn't he get it in 2007, when he hit 50 homers? Or in 2009, when he drove in 141 runs?

One thing that is out of the ordinary for him: He's drawn more walks than strikeouts.

I'm pretty sure I've written this already, but: Fielder is almost five years younger than Albert Pujols. Both men will be free agents this winter. Pujols has clearly been the greater player — but with the age difference, one can make a reasonable case that Fielder is the one to sign to a long-term contract.

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Twins tragic number: 13

Watching the odometer spin

This blog originated several years ago on the Free Press site in a very rudimentary form that, among its limitations, did not allow comments. In May of 2009, we shifted it to blogspot.

This morning, according to my Google stats, the blog passed 100,000 visitors since that shift. Whether that's impressive or not depends on one's perspective. I know there are Twins blogs with more, and many with fewer.

But I'm pleased with how things have worked over these two-plus years, and I wanted to thank you the reader, without whom I would merely be shouting into a void.

Thome in Cleveland

A "welcome (T)home" in Cleveland on Friday.

When Jim Thome's plaque goes up in the Hall of Fame, his image will bear a Cleveland Indians logo.

Not the Twins, the White Sox or Phillies. Thome made his mark in Cleveland. He holds that franchise's career records for home runs, walks and strikeouts and is second in RBIs —and remember, it's one of the American League's eight original teams, 111 years old, so it has some serious history.

But he has not been warmly greeted as a visiting player in Cleveland since leaving for free agent riches after the 2002 season.  He had said they'd have to tear the Indians uniform off him for him to leave; all it took was silly money from the Phillies. Many Cleveland fans have not forgiven him for that.

From the Let's Go Tribe blog's piece after the Thome trade went through Thursday:

I've left the most ticklish issue for last: the psychological impact of Thome coming back nine years after leaving in acrimonious fashion on the Cleveland fanbase. Of course another Cleveland athlete has since managed to top Thome in acrimoniousness of a departure, but the events of November 2002 still remains a rather bitter chapter in Indians and Cleveland sports history. Usually at least once a season a columnist, normally from another market, remarks on how Indians fans should put aside their feelings of bitterness and cheer Thome. Of course, it's easy to say those things when you didn't have the emotional investment in him that Cleveland fans did, and feel the despair that came with that hero leaving like Cleveland fans felt. It's easy to tell someone else to forgive when you aren't emotionally involved. Yes, reason says that Thome made the correct financial decision for his family, and he made the decision that gave him a better shot of winning a ring. But we're fans, not philosophers.

So then he returned Friday in an Indians uniform. How was he greeted? Standing ovation.

Which is fitting and proper. Time wounds all heels, and heals all wounds. Big Jim was a big part of the best run the Indians have ever had. How he left doesn't change what he left behind.

Fare thee well, Jim Thome

Cleveland? Right down there.

Tragic number: 17.

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So ... The Twins waived Jim Thome this week, and Cleveland won the claim on Wednesday, and the Twins and Indians agreed on a deal, and Thome agreed Thursday night to accept the trade.

Just in time for the Jim Thome Wind-up Walker giveaway tonight at Target Field.

I doubt anybody is particularly happy with this conclusion. It's just better than any of the alternatives.

Thome wants a shot at a World Series title. Cleveland has a better chance to provide that than the Twins do, but not a good one. He would have preferred Philadelphia, but the Phillies, as the top team in the National League, would have needed everybody else to pass on Thome.

There was a way to get Thome to Philadelphia. Step 1: Thome rejects a deal with Cleveland. Step 2: The Twins put Thome on release waivers, with Thome again utilizing his complete no-trade clause to reject any claims. Step 3: Thome signs with the Phillies.

That would have been ideal for Big Jim, but not so much for the Twins. They would still have owed him the rest of his salary, and they would get nothing from the Phillies. This gets the Twins the ubiquitous player to be named, and moves the remainder of his salary to the Indians. The savings is a small portion of their payroll, but considering that they were over budget from the moment they re-signed Carl Pavano, the savings are probably welcome. The player they get is unlikely to be significant, but you never know.

The only reason for the Twins to finangle Thome to the Phillies would be to make him happy — maybe even with a under-the-table agreement for his return. That may not interest them. Thome was a big help in 2010, not so much this year, partly because he was part of the injury brigade — which is to expected. He's 40, he has a chronic back issue, he can't play in the field. He has to hit A LOT to make using a roster spot on him worthwhile.

The Indians were probably only interested in Thome because they lost Travis Haefner, their regular DH, to a foot injury. With a healthy Haefner, they have no use for Thome. Even so, they're 6.5 games behind Detroit, and their chances of making that distance up are slim. And a significant portion of the Cleveland fan base resents Thome for leaving as a free agent after the 2002 season.

For the Twins in 2011: This deal opens a spot on the 25-man roster AND on the 40-man roster, which means almost anybody could be called up. As of late Thursday, there was no word on who was getting the call. My guess: Rene Rivera, which would give the Twins three catchers. He's coming up in September anyway.