Sixteen games to decide the course of the season

If the Twins can sweep Ozzie Guillen's White Sox in
their four-game series starting tonight, Minnesota will
go into the All-Star break in third place. Anything less, fourth.

The Twins this morning stand nine games below .500. They have the fifth worst record in the 14-team American League and are eight games out of first place in the AL Central.

Yet, considering their history of late-season improvement, their record of dominance in head-to-head play in the division, and the fact that they lead the majors in wins since June 1, they are hardly out of the running.

Not out of it, but not truly in it, at least right now.

That, plus the creeping proximity of the non-waiver trade deadline at the end of the month, makes this stretch of the schedule so crucial.

Sixteen games in 18 days (including the All-Star break and a make-up doubleheader), all against division opponents, the bulk of them in the suddenly Twins-friendly environment of Target Field.

Contenders or pretenders? We'll have a decision by the end of these 16 games. Merely breaking even won't be enough for this team, not with the hole they dug for themselves in April and May. Even 10-6 seems inadequate in this context. I'm looking for something along the lines of 12-4.

That's a high standard, but it's the result of their poor play in the first two months. If they're still fourth after these 16 games, if they still trail the leader by their current eight games, the front office should be in sell mode at months end.

Burnett's drawback

Alex Burnett took the loss Wednesday afternoon, and his outing fell apart in a way that is becoming almost cliche for him — a way that really limits his usefulness as a middle reliever.

Alex Burnett has five holds
and a 2-5 record after
taking the loss Wednesday.

He came in with men on base and two outs in the seventh inning and got his man (on one pitch). So far, so good.

But then he was called upon to pitch in the eighth inning, and things unraveled.

That fits a pattern he established in 2010  — he could finish an inning, even pitch a full inning, but when asked to come back out of the dugout and take the hill for the next inning, he struggled.

That was particularly bad for him in 2010, when he was shoehorned into the long man's role. The Twins last season had Matt Guerrier and Jesse Crain (and, after Matt Capps arrived, Jon Rauch) as right-handed set-up men. They had no need for another short reliever, and that's the kind of role Burnett appears best suited for.

This year, Ron Gardenhire has gotten some mileage out of Burnett by trying not to have him cross innings —which is how Burnett racked up just 24 innings in his first 31 games. That's a lot of partial innings.

But on Wednesday, that wasn't really an option. Francisco Liriano didn't make it out of the fifth inning, the bullpen had pitched four innings the day before, and Gardenhire had little appetite for using Capps in a game situation after Capps' last three outings. The bullpen needed four outs from Burnett on Wednesday, and got them — but at the cost of four runs allowed.

Burnett, judging from his quote in this story, doesn't think there's an issue for him crossing innings. But he's not convincing Gardenhire (or me) that he's adept at such outings. And to become a prime set-up man  — and I think he can be a very good one in time — he needs to be able to do a bit more than finish an inning.

The closer conundrum

Matt Capps (center)
retired two of the five
hitters he faced Tuesday.

Tuesday marked the third straight save opportunity that Matt Capps was unable to close out, and the second time that Glen Perkins had to trot in to seal the deal for the Twins.

Obviously, this cannot be allowed to continue. But the immediate alternatives to Capps as closer create other problems.

Joe Nathan is an obvious possibility -- but Ron Gardenhire has yet to use Nathan in consecutive games. As long as such ginger use is the rule for the post-surgical Nathan, it will be difficult to run the bullpen with an eye to getting him the ball for the ninth inning.

Perkins is another possibility -- but that creates a major void in the setup job, where Perkins is currently doing double duty, covering the eighth inning when Nathan's not available and serving as the top lefty as well.

If Jose Mijares were doing what he's supposed to be doing, Perkins wouldn't be so vital in the seventh and eighth innings. But Mijares hasn't pitched since June 27, and I assume that he's spent the past week trying to find and eliminate whatever flaw has robbed him of his command.

One way or another, the Twins need to get Capps straightened out, and soon. Their bullpen isn't sufficiently deep to allow them to hold him out of winnable games, especially if Mijares remains untrustworthy.

A sign of panic in Detroit?

The American League Central has been weak enough this year that the Twins can have the second-worst record in the league on July 4 and still have visions of winning another divisional title.

Rick Knapp was
Detorit's pitching
coach for 2 1/2 seasons.

But on the face of it, the team with the best shot is the Detroit Tigers. They're in second place, just behind the surprising Cleveland Indians. The Tigers were seen before the season as a legitimate contender, the Indians weren't; on paper, the Tigers ought to be the current favorite.

But one wonders about their self-assessment now. They fired pitching coach Rick Knapp over the  weekend. Dumping a coach in midseason, short of something scandalous, smacks of panic. Canning a manager sometimes turns a team around. The pitching coach? Not likely.

The Tigers hired Knapp after the 2008 season in a naked attempt to replicate the Twins' success in developing control pitchers. Knapp had been Minnesota's minor league pitching coordinator for 12 years, and Jim Leyland is supposed to have told Knapp during the job interview: I don't  know anything about you, but I know the Twins keep bringing up pitchers and they all throw strikes, and I want some of that.


But there's a fundamental difference between the two organizations. The Twins develop control pitchers in no small part because they begin the process with prospects who throw strikes. They have a long history of prioritizing command over raw stuff in the draft. The Tigers have a history of drafting and signing power arms.

In some cases, Knapp seems to have improved the pitcher. Justin Verlander is said to have taken his step forward this year because he finally brought into Knapp's advice to throttle back early in games. Al Alburquerque was signed as a minor league free agent and turned into a prime setup man.

But I suspect the organization is displeased with the regression of Rick Porcello, the inconsistency of Max Schurzer and the failure of the Phil Coke experiment. They had a string of embarrassing starts last week, which apparently resulted in the decision.

So Knapp is out. He told the Detroit Free Press on Monday that he's already heard from three general managers and expects to land a new job. Which he should, perhaps not as a major league coach but at least in player development. He has a pretty impressive track record in grooming pitchers.

An E Street Band lineup

(Warning: This post has little to do with baseball.)


I had a friend who was a big baseball player back in high school ...

I've seen Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band in concert eight times, which is hardly a record but probably establishes my credentials as a fan. And since the death of The Big Man, Clarence Clemons, I've been haunting You Tube viewing concert clips and thinking about the aging of the band, the transitions they've gone through and the transitions ahead. (And my aging, transitions, etc.)

Scooter and the Big Man

It occurred to me that my "optimal" E Street Band has nine members, just as a baseball lineup has nine hitters. Since this is the goofy way my mind works, and since this is my blog and you can't stop me, a batting order.

1) Roy Bittan, piano. Leadoff men are table setters, and many of Springsteen's songs lead off with Bittan's nimble fingers.

2) Nils Lofgren, guitar. An onstage acrobat, he's probably the shortstop. The No. Two hitter is traditionally a guy who gives himself up to move runners along; Lofgren has accepted a lower profile onstage with the return of Steve Van Zant to the lineup.

3) Springsteen. The best hitter, the star, hits third.

4) Clemons. Who better to clean up than the sax soloist? Who better to bring the power than the Big Man?

5) Max Weinberg, drums. An obvious heavy hitter.

6) Little Steven, guitar. Lineup depth indeed — he'd be middle of the order for almost anybody else.

7) Garry Tallent, bass. Durable lineup fixture; other than the Boss himself, he's the only member left from the band photo on the back of "The Wild, the Innocent and the E Street Shuffle."

8) Danny Federici, organ/keyboards. Not as prominent in the mix as the piano, but the keyboards again set things up for the others. Could hit second if need be.

9) Patti Scialfa, vocals. Major role in Springsteen's life as his wife, minor role in the band. Frankly, it's probably a stronger lineup with Soozie Tyrell, violinist, here, and Tyrell's been more involved in recent tours than Scialfa, but Tyrell's album credits have all been as an "additional musician," not as a member of the E Street Band.

Closer fireworks and the psychology of the bullpen

Matt Capps described
Saturday as the
worst day of his career.

On Saturday, Matt Capps came in to pitch the ninth inning with a three-run lead. He gave up four runs in two-thirds of an inning, and the Twins lost.

On Sunday, Capps came in for the ninth with a two-run lead. Two singles and one out later, he left. Glen Perkins struck out Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee to end it.

For better or worse, bullpen use today is built around roles. Pitchers expect it, even demand it of their managers. A manager who isn't predicable to his charges loses their confidence and eventually their respect, and a manager who loses the confidence and respect of his team loses his job. Managers have the right and obligation to change a pitcher's role for the betterment of the team, but the expectation is that those changes will be clear to the pitchers involved.

And the roles begin at the end, with the ninth-inning closer.

Glen Perkins got his first
major-league save on Sunday.

Capps had been effective entering the weekend. He had given up just one run in 10 outings in June, and pitched well once Ron Gardenhire stopped trying to get four and five-out saves from him. But this was a bad weekend for him, and  now there's speculation -- from both distant bloggers who don't enter the clubhouse and traditional media -- that he may have lost, or be losing, the job.

Gardenhire says Capps is still his closer. And I'm fine with that. I think that it IS important to relief pitchers to to have predictable roles, and I DON'T think it's important that the best relief pitcher be relegated to one-inning save situations. I would rather have the team's more reliable relievers used in the most important situations, and, Saturday's debacle notwithstanding, three-run leads in the ninth are not particularly high leverage.

Last year, in the second half, the most reliable reliever was Jesse Crain, and the Twins thrived on using him to get out of jams in the seventh or eighth innings. Right now -- on the morning of July 4, 2011 -- I believe the two most reliable relievers in the Minnesota bullpen are Glen Perkins and Joe Nathan, and I believe the Twins are better off using them to get to Capps.

But again, the key thing in such decisions is what the clubhouse thinks. Right or wrong, the closer role is seen as the pinnacle of relief pitching. It's where the money is. Nathan and Capps combine to make about $19 million because they have a lot of saves on their stat sheets. Gardenhire is right to want to keep Capps in the role, but another bad outing could force a change, just as it did in April, when Nathan gave way to Capps.

Pic of the Week

Sam, an 11-year-old bald eagle from the Cincinnati Zoo,
returns to his handler at home plate during a pregame
ceremony at Great American Ballpark in Cincy on Friday.

I find myself wondering if I could stand there while the big raptor swooped in.