Baseball Outsider

Doin' the affiliation shuffle?

2012-02-11T07:09:00.000-06:00

The Twins have made no secret this offseason of their concern about their Triple A affiliation with the Rochester Red Wings. They like having their top minor league affiliate there for a variety of reasons, but the Wings are free agents after the 2012 season, and the Twins have not provided them with sufficient talent to win in recent years.

Which is why the Twins imported Gene Glynn (Waseca and MSU hero) to manage in Rochester, and why they've signed umpteen minor league free agents. It isn't just about winning here, it's about winning there too.

The Double A affilation, it appears, may also be in jeopardy. The Twins have been affiliated since 1995 with the New Britain (Conn.) RockCats in the Eastern League. That's where Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson played last season before their September call-ups and where Liam Hendriks spent most of 2011 as well.

Follow these complexities: The New York Mets' longtime Eastern League affiliate, the Binghamton Mets, are reportedly about to be sold and the franchise moved to Ottawa, Canada. Once in Ottawa, the idea is that they will affiliate with the Toronto Blue Jays, the major league team of choice in the Canadian capital. That makes sense.

The Mets would be without a Double A affiliate. Both ESPN New York and Newsday have reported in recent days that they would align with New Britain; Newsday notes that New Britain is actually an hour's drive closer to New York than Binghamton.

The Twins, under this scenario, would wind up connected to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats in Manchester, N.H. I've no idea if that would be seen as a better or worse affiliation for the Twins.

But at least it would keep the Twins affiliated with a Something Cats.

The future of this blog (con't.)

2012-02-11T01:52:00.000-06:00

Almost three weeks ago, after my superiors at The Free Press announced plans to offer digital subscriptions (or, put another way, erect a paywall on our newspaper's website), I posted here about the implications for this blog.

To update: The status remains quo.

Oh, the digital subscription thing is under way. But this blog, and the others maintained by my colleagues, remain on Blogger.

When I wrote the previous post, the powers that be had scheduled a webinar to unveil a blog function on our web platform. The day I published that post, the webinar was postponed indefinitely. No reason has been given, but the assumption here is that the blog function isn't ready. If and when it will be is unknown to me.

So the final sentence of the earlier post remains effective: I'll let you know when I know.

One pitcher gone

2012-02-10T00:15:00.000-06:00

The Twins on Thursday picked up outfielder Darin Mastroianni on waivers from Toronto. To make room for him on the 40-man roster they designated pitcher Esmerling Vasquez for assignment.

Mastroianni, who is 26 and appears to have at least one option left, isn't real likely to make the 25-man roster, barring injuries to the center fielders ahead of him (Denard Span and Ben Revere). Like them, he's a speedy guy without much power; he's shown excellent stolen base rates in the minors and, as he's reached the upper levels of the Toronto system, has drawn walks. He figures to give Rochester a legitimate center fielder, which will make it easier for Gene Glynn to focus Joe Benson on mastering an outfield corner.

Vasquez winds up never having thrown a pitch for the Twins; they picked him up on the next-to-last day of the season in 2011 and cut him less than two weeks before pitchers and catchers report. He is arguably better than Jeff Gray, who remains on the 40-man roster, but if I was right in my attempt to figure out how many options the pitchers have, Gray offers a bit more roster flexibility. It's possible Vasquez will clear waivers and remain in the Twins system.

Either way, this is definitely tinkering at the edges of the roster, with a greater impact on the Triple A team than on the major league squad.

Feeling a draft (February edition)

2012-02-09T01:54:00.000-06:00

We're obviously a long ways away from baseball's amateur draft, and a lot can change between now and June.

Things will start changing pretty soon as the college baseball season gets going. The Baseball America that showed up in my mailbox Wednesday is built around their college preview, and includes a few early draft nuggets of interest to Twins fans.

BA, which does a top-notch job of reflecting the scouting consensus, says this year's draft field is nowhere near as impressive as last year's, which was regarded as very high quality. The falloff is largely in college talent. College talent, of course, is generally more developed and closer to major league ready than high school talent.

Five players entered February "separated from the rest of the pack." They are, as ranked by BA:

Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Harvard-Westlake High, Calif.
Byron Buxton, OF, Appling County High, Ga.
Deven Marrero, SS, Arizona State
Mike Zunino, C, Florida

Again, I wouldn't get too wound up with that ranking. There's a lot of amateur baseball to be played between now and the draft. Somebody not in that list may well rise; some in that list may fall. All it means is that right now, those are the five guys the Twins -- who have the No. 2 overall pick -- are probably most focused on.

Minnesota, which also has a number of compensation picks from the departures of Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel, figures to have the highest bonus pool to draw upon, about $12.4 million. The bonus pool is a new complication to the draft; teams are allotted a certain amount of money to spend on their picks in the first 10 rounds, and there are some rigorous penalties for exceeding the pool amount.

Perfectly pointless memorabilia

2012-02-08T00:28:00.000-06:00

No wonder Kim Kardashian so quickly called off the
marriage; Kris Humphries signed the sweet spot.

Considering the mishmash of memorabilia that currently makes up the header for this blog, I'm probably not a guy who should jeer at collecting baseball items.

But the news Tuesday that the Twins will auction off (for charity) a baseball signed last summer by the (un)reality TV couple Kris Humphries and Kim Kardashian ... I don't know any other way to react than to give it a raspberry.

I certainly understand why the Twins would be ~~eager to rid themselves of~~ willing to part with this particular memory. I would think they'd like to auction off any evidence on hand that 2011 ever occurred.

But really: Who would want this ball badly enough to pay for it? And why?

The outfield plan: The alignment

2012-02-07T06:48:00.000-06:00

Ben Revere had several memorable catches last season.

This is no real surprise: During the Twins Caravan/Twins Fest pre-spring training promotional period, manager Ron Gardenhire consistently said he wants to lock Denard Span into the center field job, with Josh Willingham in right and Ben Revere in left.

There are two potential points of contention to that plan:

Assigning Span to center ahead of Revere;
Making Revere a regular at all.

These are connected, but ... let's deal, today, with the alignment question. There are those -- such as Michael Rand of the Star Tribune -- who think it would be more effective to put Revere in center with Willingham in his accustomed left field and Span in right.

Examine the skill sets. None of the three has a true right field arm; Willingham, easily the slowest of the trio, is a converted catcher, which suggests he may have the strongest arm of the group. Revere has eye-popping range in center, but Span is quite good out there as well, and his arm is better than Revere's.

Gardenhire believes it's more important to keep his regulars comfortable. Willingham is used to playing left, but has agreed to shift to right -- and Gardenhire sees his part of the bargain as not moving him back and forth. Span prefers center to an outfield corner. And while Revere is the front runner for a regular position, his weaknesses could turn him into a part-timer.

That, I think, is a prime reason to go with Span in center.

It appears likely right now that the reserve outfielders will be Ryan Doumit (who'll also DH, catch and play first base) and Trevor Plouffe (converted infielder with little outfield experience. Neither is any sort of center field option. If Revere loses playing time -- if, for example, he winds up platooning with Plouffe -- Gardenhire doesn't want to move Span around.

Gardenhire is not a big platooner, but his outfield plan certainly makes it easier to go to a platoon arrangment in left. And it makes it easy to handle his RF/1B/C/DH set up, in which he has four regulars (Willingham, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer and Doumit) for four positions and he can mix and match to rest his position players.

The Sunday Funnies

2012-02-05T03:58:00.000-06:00

The Polo Grounds, home to the New York Giants for decades and briefly the setting for the foolishness of the early Mets, was a weirdly-shaped yard -- more than 500 feet to straight-away center, barely 250 feet down the lines.

Famous plays resulted from the dimensions of the oval. Willie Mays' over-the-shoulder catch in the 1954 World Series was made more than 450 feet from home plate; Bobby Thomson's "Homer Heard 'Round the World" to win the 1951 pennant probably didn't go 300 feet.

Then there's this story, told by Mays biographer Charles Einstein in his book "Willie's Time":

The phrase "That would've been a home run at the Polo Grounds" was often heard in other parks to deride routine fly balls ... Following a tour the Giants had made in Japan, I served as master of ceremonies at a Giants Booster Club luncheon, and in introducing Mays to the audience I described a play he was said to have made in Tokyo. It seems that with bases loaded, the batter put up a fly ball to center field. The ball was caught up in one of the winds that are sacred to the Japanese, and Mays saw that it was going to carry out of the park. But he also noticed that the exit gate in center field was open. So he raced through the gate and found himself on a tree-lined avenue running away from the ball park. Going in the same direction was a fire engine in the process of answering a call, so Mays hopped aboard. Three blocks farther, he reached up and made the catch. One fireman at the back of the truck turned to another and said, "Home run at the Polo Grounds."

The tale having been told, I presented Mays and sat down while he fielded questions from the audience. Toward the end, one rather unexpected query came up. "About that time you caught the ball while you were riding on the fire engine in Japan," the questioner asked, "did the guy from third score after the catch, or was your throw in time to get him?"

That got a better laugh than the story itself. Mays, however, handled it straight-faced. "I didn't make any throw," he said. "Didn't have to. There was two out at the time."

Josh Hamilton's relapse

2012-02-04T00:39:00.000-06:00

Josh Hamilton on Friday admitted that he had gone drinking
on Monday: "It was just wrong."

Word got out late Thursday that 2010 AL MVP Josh Hamilton had been seen drinking at a bar in the Dallas-Fort Worth area earlier in the week. Since Hamilton is baseball's most notorious recovering addict, it was big news — big enough to prompt a Hamilton mea culpa press conference on Friday.

It's not Hamilton's first relapse since his return from the abyss, but it certainly came at a sensitive time: The outfielder is going into his walk year, and contract talks between his agent and the Texas Rangers were broken off in the immediate wake of his relapse.

I find myself wondering, however, not so much about what this latest slip means for Hamilton the ballplayer as what it suggests about his post-baseball future. Both this and his previous relapse, after all, came in January — in the heart of the offseason, in a time when the structure of the season isn't available. Also, there are a lot of people around him (again, particularly during the season) who want, if only for selfish reasons, to keep him sober and productive.

He has a support system, frayed as it may be, in place — but it has a lot to do with baseball. And baseball is only a part of life, even for a talent as magnificent as Hamilton.

Someday his playing days are going to end. The financial incentive for others to help him stay in line will vanish. The lure of tomorrow's game won't be there.

If he struggles to stay sober in the offseason, what awaits him when his permanent offseason arrives? For an addict, sobriety is always a daunting notion, but in Hamilton's case, it seems even more difficult.

The pitching options

2012-02-03T02:38:00.000-06:00

Anthony Swarzak
did well as a swingman
in 2011, plus he's out
of options.

Teams have 40-man rosters, from which they devise their 25-man active rosters during the season. The 15 athletes not on the active roster are either on the disabled list or "optioned" to the minors. A player can only be optioned out in three different seasons, so a player's option status is often a significant consideration.

There is, so far as I know, no authoritative Internet site that tells how many options a player has. With so many pitchers scheduled for the Twins spring training camp, and so many of them new to the organization, ascertaining option status is a rather difficult task, yet essential to understanding the dynamics of the competition for spots on the 25-man roster.

The Twins have 15 pre-arbitration pitchers on their 40-man roster. The other eight make enough that the Twins aren't going to option any of them out this spring; Nick Blackburn either opens the season on the 25-man roster or on the disabled list, but he's not going to be pitching for Rochester in April. So for this exercise, I'm ignoring the projected rotation (Carl Pavano, Scott Baker, Blackburn, Francisco Liriano and Jason Marquis) and the three veterans (Matt Capps, Glen Perkins and Joel Zumaya) in the bullpen.

Here, as best I can figure, are the option statuses of the 15, with occasional comment:

Alex Burnett: One option left. (The Twins essentially wasted an option on him last year; he was among the first pitchers sent out in spring training, but he was recalled about a week into the season and remained on the active roster the rest of the way.)

Scott Diamond: Two options left.

Terry Doyle: Three options left, but that's immaterial at this point. He's a Rule V draftee, which means the Twins have to keep him on the 25-man roster or return him to the White Sox. Diamond was in the same position last year, but the Twins traded for his rights at the end of camp.

Brian Duensing: At least one option left. I'm not certain of when he was added to the 40-man roster, and it's possible that he has two options left. The Twins aren't real likely to use one in any case.

Carlos Gutierrez has all
three options left,
so it's easier for the
Twins to send him to
the minors.

Jeff Gray: One option left. I think.

Deolis Guerra: One option left.

Carlos Gutierrez: Added to the 40 this winter, all three options left.

Liam Hendriks: Added to the 40 and 25 rosters late in the season, hasn't been sent down since. All three options left.

Matt Maloney: Pretty sure he's out of options. I don't know it for a fact, but he's been up and down for three years, so unless one of those seasons involved injury rehabs and not an actual option, he's use or lose.

Jeff Manship: Again, I'm not sure exactly when he was added to the 40. He might be out of options, he might have one left.

Lester Oliveros: Fairly sure he has two left.

Tyler Robertson: Like Gutierrez, all three options left.

Anthony Swarzak: Out of options.

Esmerling Vasquez: He's been up and down with the Diamondbacks the past three seasons, so he may be out of options. His 2010 minor league stint was just one game, which might have been a rehab stint, but there's no gap in his major league time corresponding to a DL stint.

Kyle Waldrop: Like Hendriks, added to the roster late and not sent down. Three options left.

On bypassing the veteran middle relievers

2012-02-02T08:48:00.000-06:00

There are a number of Twins bloggers -- most prominently Aaron Gleeman -- vocally unhappy with the Twins' activity, or lack of it, in the middle-relief free agent market.

As Gleeman sees it, Terry Ryan and Co. erred first by re-signing Matt Capps, then by bypassing a flock of veterans who have signed more cheaply than Capps, or who haven't signed at all (yet).

I don't share Gleeman's displeasure. I'm inclined to agree with Ryan's sense of Capps' ability and value, to begin with; as much as I respect Gleeman's analysis and insight, I suspect he's holding the Wilson Ramos trade against Capps.

Brad Lidge, once one
of the most feared closers
in the game, threw
less than 20 innings
in 2011 for the Phillies.
He's signed with
Washington.

Most of the relievers on Gleeman's list are older guys clearly on the way down and increasingly relegated to low-leverage roles. Brad Lidge? His fast ball is gone; he's basically down to his slider now, and while that remains a high-quality pitch, the amount of time he's missed in recent seasons suggests that it takes too heavy a toll. If the Phillies thought he had use, they wouldn't have so emphatically walked away from him. Jonathan Broxton? We'll see how he fares in Kansas City, but for my money he's a classic case of Joe Torre bullpen burnout. Jon Rauch? LaTroy Hawkins? Been there, done that.

That the likes of Dan Wheeler and Chad Qualls are signing minor league deals elsewhere does not disturb me. The Twins have plenty of non-roster invitees, maybe too many -- but they are generally younger and unestablished, and to me that offers the possibility of finding a hidden gem. Wheeler is 34, had an ERA above 5 for most of 2011, didn't pitch at all after Sept. 7 and was seldom entrusted by the Red Sox with game situations. Are the Twins really losing out on anything there?

Maybe Wheeler is better than (picking a 40-man roster arm at random) Kyle Waldrop, but I doubt the difference is significant enough to opt for certain mediocrity over possible mediocrity. I think the Twins can get from the unknowns at least what they would be getting from the known quantities, and possibly -- possibly -- more.

Contemplating Tim Wakefield

2012-02-01T08:52:00.001-06:00

Tim Wakefield is 45, and he went just 7-8, 5.12 last season.

The veteran knuckleballer hasn't had an ERA below 5 since 2009, hasn't qualified for the ERA title since 2008, hasn't had an ERA below 4 since 2002.

Tim Wakefield began
his professional career
as a third baseman.

It's February, and the Boston Red Sox have not offered him a contract. He has had nibbles from other organizations, but he has long said he won't pitch for anybody other than Boston. It looks like the end for Wakefield.

If so, it's been an odd career, odd enough that it may be unique. He has 200 career wins (on the nose), but never won more than 17 games in any season. He hit the majors as a 25-year-old flutterball savant -- in his half season in 1992 with Pittsburgh, he went 8-1, 2.15, won a couple more games in the playoffs, and looked like he was set for a long run as a top-flight pitcher for years to come.

And then he crashed and burned and rose again: 6-11 in 2003, back to the minors in 2004, re-emerged with Boston in 1995 with a 16-8, 2.95 season.

He had two half seasons in his 20s -- 1992 and 1995 -- in which he had a case for being the best pitcher going. He wasn't. He was a durable utility pitcher -- he won 17 games for the Sox as a starter in 1998, then led the team in saves the next season -- and Boston rewarded him, but he was never an ace. He ground through his 30s and into his 40s as a back-of-the-rotation guy.

Knuckleballers, as a rule, mature late. It's a rare k-baller who shines in his 20s. It takes time to master the nuances of the pitch, and, I suspect, to master the emotional aspect of relying on the unpredicable. Knuckleballers also, as a rule, get their chances with bad teams.

Wakefield is an exception to both rules.

Too many pitchers?

2012-01-31T03:37:00.000-06:00

Liam Hendricks (center) will be
in major-league camp, but he
figures to be an easy and early
demotion to the minors.

It is as if the Twins, having realized they needed a needle, purchased a haystack.

Their 40-man roster contains 23 pitchers. They have 25 non-roster invitees coming to camp as well, with nine of them being pitchers.

Thirty-two moundsmen are to descend upon the Hammond Stadium complex in a bit more than two weeks. That's almost enough to fill out not just the major league pitching staff, not just the Triple A staff, but the Double A one as well.

And those are just the guys in major league camp. Reporting a few weeks later to minor-league camp will be at least three pitchers with major league experience, and a fourth who was on the 40 last spring.

It's hardly rare for teams to find useful pitchers in the discard pile. The Twins picked up Matt Guerrier when the Pittsburgh Pirates decided he wasn't worth a spot on their 40-man roster, and he had a pretty good multi-season run in the Minnesota bullpen. Carl Willis, the second-best man in the 1991 bullpen, was a non-roster invitee.

But it's going to take a keen eye and quick judgment for the Twins to find a Guerrier in this crowd, because there are so many arms to look at, and only so many useful innings in which to eye them -- and a lot of innings that, of necessity, can't be used to give marginal guys a chance to show off their abilities, because the guys who are locks to be on the roster have to get ready for the season.

Start the sorting process there. The Twins have five starting pitchers with salaries of $3 million or more: Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and Jason Marquis. If they're healthy -- no sure thing, as four of them spent time on the disabled list last season -- that's the rotation.

I see six other "starting pitchers" on the 40-man roster: Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Liam Hendricks, Terry Doyle and Matt Maloney. Maybe Jeff Manship belongs in that list too, but I think the Twins now view him as bullpen material. Hendricks isn't going to be in the Minnesota bullpen, but any of the others might.

Phil Dumatrait is
one of nine
non-roster pitchers
invited to the Twins
major league camp.

Matt Capps, Glen Perkins and Joel Zumaya -- again, assuming they're healthy -- have the end game roles in the bullpen secured. With Duensing and Swarzak front-runners for two other spots, that leaves two openings for the remaining 21 pitchers to scrap for.

Nineteen, really. Hendricks is going to be in a minor league rotation, getting innings. Tyler Robertson, a lefty relief prospect added to the 40 during the winter, has had just a taste of Triple A and is probably not deemed ready for the show just yet.

Nineteen pitchers for two jobs is still a lot.

The ones on the 40-man roster have a leg up on the non-roster invitees, but it may not be that decisive. Some of those on the 40 are use-or-lose -- Swarzak, for example, is out of options, and some of the additions may be. Doyle is a Rule V guy. Such players either make the 25-man roster or get cut from the 40, which would make room for a non-roster invitee. I expect at least one such move during camp.

Still, the challenge is twofold. The pitchers (particularly those with whom Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson are unfamiliar) need both to impress early, and to do so without overextending themselves. And the talent evaluators need to keep in mind that matchups early in camp against marginal hitters aren't necessarily revealing.

Dusty Hughes, after all, overwhelmed people in the first few weeks in Fort Myers last winter. It didn't carry over to the regular season.

Scott Boras, "business partner"

2012-01-30T05:32:00.003-06:00

Scott Boras has found a sucker in Mike Ilitch, and has
convinced Ilitch that's a good thing.

This piece from the Detroit Free Press, contains a Scott Boras quote that cries out for some analysis:

"I told (Tigers owner Mike Ilitch), 'This is never easy, sir, because you're going to have to sign contracts that people are going to tell you aren't good contracts. My job is to make them good contracts by getting those players to perform and help you.' "

Since that purported conversation after the Tigers 119-loss season in 2003, the Tigers (and Ilitch) have been a favored landing place for Boras clients. And the Tigers have been to a World Series (2006) and won a division title (2011), which is certainly an improvement over 119 losses.

But have the Tigers' deals with Boras' clients been "good contracts?" It depends on how you want to define good. Some cases:

Magglio Ordonez pulled in a bit less than $100 million for Ilitch and Co. over the past seven seasons; he had one huge season, a few good ones, and was a part-time player in three. Good contract or bad?

Ivan Rodriguez got $48.5 million over five years from the Tigers, including the three biggest salaries of his illustrious career; his production sank like a stone during that time.

Rick Porcello, billed as an instant ace, got a record-setting $11.1 million deal coming out of high school. He has turned into Nick Blackburn — a low-strikeout back-of-the-rotation guy. (He also has a different agent now.) And now he's turning really expensive.

Last week Boras stuck Ilitch with Prince Fielder, a nine-year solution to the Tigers' one-year problem (the injury that will keep DH Victor Martinez out for 2012). Fielder's bat may make him worth his bloated salary for a while; like Mags and Pudge, he'll be a liability later in the deal.

Ilitch is willing to run pretty big operating deficits in pursuit of a few more wins. Boras is quite willing to help him run up those deficits, just as he helped Tom Hicks run the Texas Rangers into bankruptcy. The Rangers didn't grow into the two-time AL World Series representative that they are now until they shook their addiction to Boras clients.

Odds are the Fielder deal won't swamp Ilitch financially in the way the Alex Rodriguez contract did Hicks. But Ilitch seems to me too much a sucker for Boras' sales pitch. Boras ain't his partner; he's the employee of some of his employees. Boras' goal is to extract Ilitch's money.

The Sunday Funnies

2012-01-29T03:00:00.001-06:00

Tom Sheehan had a relatively brief major league career as a pitcher, but a long one in professional ball -- 65 years all told as player, manager, coach and scout. And as a storyteller.

One of his tales, from his extensive minor league days: He's trying to finish up a game in the twilight in a park with no lights. The opposition had men on base and a top slugger up, and Sheehan is weary, but it's getting dim.

He throws strike one -- and holds his position in front of the mound when he takes the catcher's throw. He pitches from the same spot; strike two. Again he holds his ground, so he's now two strides in front of the rubber, and nobody notices in the dim. He throws his best fastball past the swinging bat, strike three, game over.

The hitter says to him: "You sure had something on that last pitch."

And Sheehan replies: "Yeah, and if I had to throw another, I'd have hit you in the eye with my fist."

Twins Fest weekend

2012-01-28T06:19:00.000-06:00

Justin Morneau is at Twins Fest this year. Last winter
it was decided to have him skip the event while he tried
to recover from his concussion.

The rhythm of the offseason ticks on. The Twins Caravan wrapped up this week (the Mankato stop this year featured Bert Blyleven, Danny Valencia and Drew Butera), and this weekend the Metrodome will be packed with fans, vendors, exhibits and about 60 past, current and future Twins signing autographs.

About three weeks to spring training, folks.

With so much of the team around, and with the season fast approaching, there are plenty of stories popping up.

Alexi Casilla had a good winter ball season in the Dominican -- hit better than .330 in their regular season and almost .400 in 17 playoff games -- and told the Strib's Joe Christensen: "Oh my god. I was on base too much." I hope he has that problem all season.

Justin Morneau has spent the winter rehabbing from various surgeries -- neck, knee, foot, wrist -- and letting his concussion heal itself. Joe C.'s story took an optimistic tone, but reading between the lines, one wonders. Morneau hasn't had concussion symptoms since December -- which means he was having them into last month -- and he hasn't yet been cleared to hit (that related to his wrist surgery). He still lacks feeling in his left forefinger; that's from the pinched nerve in his neck. It all adds up to: This was one hurting puppy last season, and this season is no certainty.

To whatever extent Morneau was inclined to feel sorry for himself, that notion was doubtless dissipated when he and a handful of other players visited Jack Jablonski, the high school hockey player paralyzed by a check in the back. Also visiting Jabs: Matt Capps, Glen Perkins, Butera and newcomer Jason Marquis.

In probably better health news: Nick Blackburn reports he'e feeling fine and ready to go after his latest surgery. Denard Span says this is the best he's felt in two years, and Ron Gardenhire says Span (not Ben Revere) is his center fielder. Joe Mauer is raring to go.

A Kent Hrbek statue is coming to Target Field. At this rate the plaza will be so filled with bronze there'll soon be no room for the kettle corn stand.

And the Twins moved the stoic Tom Kelly to tears with the announcement that his No. 10 will be retired this year. Deservedly so.

Prince Fielder, Mike Ilitch and the quest for value

2012-01-27T00:34:00.000-06:00

Prince Fielder and Mike Ilitch: One is rich, the other is richer.

Now that Prince Fielder is officially a Detroit Tiger ...

The Tigers owe Fielder $214 million over the next nine seasons. They owe Miguel Cabrera $86 million over the next four seasons. They owe Justin Verlander $60 million over the next three seasons.

That adds up to $360 million for three players.

According to Forbes, which each spring publishes estimates of the worth of each major league franchise, the entire Tigers franchise was worth $385 million as of 2011. (Forbes valued the Twins at $490 million.)

Frankly, I'm over my head when it comes to numbers like these. I'd be a fool to think that I know more about finances than Tigers owner Mike Ilitch; he and his family have built an empire of pizza and pro sports and casinos and who knows what else that's worth at least $2 billion, and I ... haven't.

I don't even know if extremely pricey players such as Fielder, Cabrera and Joe Mauer count as assets or as liabilities when Forbes estimates a team's worth. There may be no real connection between payroll and worth.

But it feels out of balance for a team to have essentially its entire value tied up in three players.

Certainly Ilitch runs his team differently than do the Pohlads. Forbes consistently estimates that the Tigers operate at an annual loss of more than $20 million; the Fielder signing pretty much guarantees that will continue. The Pohlads have, I'm sure, subsidized the Twins from time to time, but in the main they expect the team to pay its own way.

The Pohlad approach seems to me the more stable way to operate.

Like the late Carl Pohlad, Ilitch has offspring who are active in the family empire, and it would seem likely that there is a succession plan in place — likely that the Tigers will not, when the 82-year-old Ilitch dies, enter the bizarre world of probate that ensnared the Red Sox and Royals when their big-spending owners passed on.

Still: The Tigers have a major market payroll and small market revenues. At some point, that contradiction is going to bite them.

Reconsidering the Slowey transactions

2012-01-26T02:08:00.000-06:00

Kevin Slowey
is back in the
AL Central.

Last week I critiqued this winter's sequence of moves that has resulted in Kevin Slowey joining the Cleveland Indians.

While I remain convinced that the Twins mishandled Slowey last year (and Slowey, no doubt, played a role in the fiasco), I am not now so certain that the Twins have come off the worst of the three teams involved in this offseason's trades.

To recap:

In early December the Twins traded Slowey to Colorado for minor league pitcher Daniel Turpen.
Last week the Rockies traded Slowey and cash to Cleveland for pitcher Zach Putnam.

Putnam is generally regarded as a better prospect that Turpen. But the cash -- which I overlooked in delivering Friday's critique -- is not insubstantial ($1.25 million).

Look at it this way: Would the Twins swap Turpen and $1.25 million for Putman? I can't be certain, but I doubt it. Both right-handers are a secondary pitch shy of establishing themselves as major leaguers, much less as impact players.

Then there's this: Putnam is on a 40-man roster. Turpen is not. The Twins traded Slowey when they did to open a spot on the 40 before the Rule V draft, and it seems reasonable to assume that they didn't want somebody who would have to be on the 40.

Who, then, comes off best in this sequence? My sense is Cleveland, which gets Slowey at a substantial discount. I think Slowey is a better pitcher than his disastrous 2011 indicates. If he pitches in 2012 as he did when healthy in his previous seasons with the Twins, the Indians have a very good back-of-the-rotation starter.

Next would be the Twins, who rid themselves of what seemed to be a poisonous situation. And at the bottom is Colorado, which got a minor upgrade in prospects at the cost of $1.25 million and some roster flexibility.

Prince Fielder to the Detroit Tigers

2012-01-25T00:45:00.002-06:00

Detroit will pay a king's ransom for Prince Fielder.

Well, I sure didn't see this coming.

Prince Fielder landed with the Tigers — nine years, $214 million, pending a physical (which will doubtless find that he's one really heavy dude).

Long, huge contracts are always a risk, and once this one becomes official it will be the fourth largest ever. It's longer and more costly than even the Joe Mauer contract, and the Twins are probably far less comfortable with that one just one year in than they ever imagined. And Mauer isn't lugging around a big belly.

If you're going to spend $200 million-plus on a player, best that it be one of Fielder's age. It would also be preferred that it not be on one of Fielder's body type.

Fielder can certainly hit. He and Miguel Cabrera figure to be as imposing a pair of back-to-back hitters as one could hope for -- as was Fielder and Ryan Braun in Milwaukee. But both Fielder and Cabrera have been first basemen for several seasons now, neither is particularly agile, and neither wants a steady diet of DHing.

Cabrera, who was moved from third base in 2008 after embarrassing himself with five errors in 14 games, is supposedly to return to the hot corner. Considering that the Detroit shortstop, Jhonny Peralta, was moved to third base by the Cleveland Indians because of his lack of range, and that their patchwork at second base frequently involves a transplanted outfielder (Ryan Raburn) and this has the very real possibility of being the worst defensive infield I'll ever see in the majors.

But the Tigers are heavy on power pitchers, and if anybody is equipped to play with an infield of Iron Gloves, it would be a staff led by guys like Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Rick Porcello, not so much.

The middle of the Tigers lineup certainly won't be fun to pitch against the next few years, so in the short run, the Fielder signing may work. In the long run, guaranteeing a player with Fielder's conditioning issues that much money for that long a term is lunacy. But Mike Ilitch, the pizza magnate and former minor leaguer who owns the Tigers, is in his 80s. In the long run, he's dead. He wants a World Series first.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Final thoughts

2012-01-24T04:31:00.000-06:00

Bill Smith: Still part of
the front office, but
not the man in charge.

I had to laugh (quietly). The Puckett's Pond blog (currently on the siderail) does a weekly links post, and that compilation has frequently picked a "Dissecting Bill Smith" segment. At least once the poster called it his favorite series of the winter. And then last week's link at least hinted that it had gone long enough.

And it has. This series ran away from me. This will be the 23rd post in the series, and more than half of them were about trades. That explicitly wasn't my intent. As I said in the introductory post, trades are a prominent part of a general manager's job, but there are many other facets. And even the visible part of the trading game -- the trades that are made -- may be dwarfed by the hidden part -- the trades that aren't made.

Smith is not a popular figure with the fans. But after reviewing his tenure, I come away believing that in at least one crucial aspect, the organization improved during his reign.

Smith inherited the job at a time -- after the 2007 season -- when the minor league system was becoming exhausted. The Twins had been drafting in the bottom half for more than five years. They had been unwilling/unable to compete for talent in the hotbeds of foreign baseball, and unwilling/unable to "break slot" for talented players in the draft who fell because of their bonus demands. And with the team continually in contention, the trades of veterans for young talent had largely dried up.

The upper levels provided a few useful pieces early in Smith's reign -- Denard Span, Nick Blackburn -- but the lower levels were relatively barren.

That problem is being felt now. The Twins' Triple A affiliate, Rochester, is coming off back-to-back seasons of more then 90 losses, and it is not graduating impact players to the big club. That failure is rooted in the final years of Terry Ryan's first tenure.

And yet we can see a new foundation rising through the bottom rungs of the organization. Miguel Sano. Eddie Rosario. Oswaldo Arcia. Levi Michael. Kyle Gibson is more advanced, and sidelined by injury, but he fits the pattern too -- he fell in the draft, the Twins took him and went over slot to get him signed.

Player development is like an aircraft carrier; it doesn't turn on a dime. But if/when the Twins infield consists of Rosario at second, Sano at third and Michael at short, it should be remembered that Smith was the man at the helm when they came on board.

And, to be sure, that Ryan was back in charge when they were turned from prospects to players. Reading between the lines, it appears that Ryan is more effective than Smith at setting and enforcing standards.

On the future of this blog

2012-01-23T05:44:00.000-06:00

I work, as you probably know, for The Free Press, the daily newspaper in Mankato, Minn. My job is copy editing and page design. The weekly in-season baseball column is something extra. So is this blog.

In the early months of 2007, I came to Joe Spear, the managing editor of The Free Press, and said: I want to start a baseball blog. If you want it on our website, great; if you don't, that's OK too, but I want to do this somewhere, somehow. He immediately said he wanted it on The Free Press site.

Our then-webmaster fairly quickly set up a crude blog platform within our site. It allowed no comments and required me to write out the html commands to create hyperlinks. It was clumsy and inconvenient and not all that accessible. And I used that for a bit more than two years. Perhaps that setup would have been improved with time, but the webmaster left our employ, and there was no successor.

By 2009 a few other staffers were blogging. They weren't using the in-house platform that had been set up for me; they were using Blogger, with links from the Free Press homepage to the blogs. I was, let us say, "encouraged" to shift to Blogger also. I was wary of the change, largely because I was not impressed by the tone of comments on Free Press stories, but in May I made the jump. (And the comment problem has not been an issue here; thank you.)

The new platform was easy and versatile. It also isn't really part of The Free Press website. Today, in the middle of the offseason, I'm drawing (according to Google Stats) about 8,800 visits a month; very few are coming through my employer's site, which means The Free Press isn't gaining much from all my blog activity.

All this is relevant because sometime this month The Free Press will install a paywall. (Here's the publisher's explanation.) Let me say here that I have absolutely no quarrel with this decision; I favor it, and have for some time. The give-it-away model isn't working financially for newspapers in general and The Free Press in particular, and isn't going to.

As matters stand, of course, this would have little effect on this blog. Most of you don't come here through The Free Press site. You come from other blogs, through bookmarks, through search engines ... and as long as the Outsider is on Blogger, those alternative routes are going to be there.

But that may not last much longer. Two thousand-plus visitors a week, many/most of whom are otherwise not Free Press customers, has an obvious attraction. Given that Jim Santori specifically mentions the blogs as something to be affected by the paywall, I assume this blog is likely to move once more.

I'll let you know when I know.

The Sunday Funnies

2012-01-22T01:11:00.001-06:00

The '62 Mets. Really, is it possible to compile a series of amusing baseball anecdotes without including something about their famous inepitude? So here goes ...

Richie Ashburn is the center fielder for the Mets, in the last year of his stellar career. Elio Chacon is the shortstop, for reasons unknown to history. Chacon is from Venezuela, and his English is exceedingly limited, and he and Ashburn keep colliding in the pursuit of popups.

Another Met tells Ashburn that the problem is that Chacon doesn't understand when Ashburn yells "I got it." He suggests that Ashburn yell "Yo ma tengo" instead, and Chacon will pull up.

It makes sense to Ashburn, who practices the pronunciation for a while and decides he's ready to roll with it.

Game's going on, and a pop-up is hit into short left center. Ashburn comes in, Chacon goes out. Ashburn yells "Yo ma tengo!" Chacon pulls up and gives Ashburn plenty of room. The center fielder reaches up to catch the ball ...

And gets plowed over by Frank Thomas, the 200-plus pound left fielder, who speaks no Spanish.

Back to the Basics (Blame Nishi)

2012-01-21T01:04:00.000-06:00

Tom Kelly recently cited players from outside
the Twins system as a reason for the misplays of 2011.
Tsuyoshi Nishioka was the most prominent of them.

We're less than a month away from the opening drills of the Twins spring training. Let the fundamentals hype begin.

The organization's "play-the-game-the-right-way" mantra tends to stick in the craw of the blogosphere, but I have no doubt that Ron Gardenhire and Co. are sincere in prioritizing that approach. And after the debacle that was 2011, there is no dispute that the Twins have fallen off in that department (as in many others).

The question becomes: What are they going to do about it?

Here's Gardy, as quoted earlier in the week by LaVelle Neal (Star Tribune), raising more questions than he answers:

I've talked to (Tom Kelly) at long time on the phone. Conversations I thought I could never get into with T.K. We spent an hour on the phone one day, talking about different things we should do in spring training, which way to go and how I should have done different things. It's actually been good. Tom has helped me out a bunch.

A fascinating paragraph there, with potential followup questions springing from every sentence. As curious as I am about what spring training changes loom, as interesting as Kelly's critique of Gardenhire may be, I find myself stuck on the second sentence. Gardy was Kelly's right-hand man for more than a decade, T.K.'s designated successor. Kelly's been a prominent presence at spring training throughout the Gardenhire years. They are mentor and protege. And there were baseball conversations Gardy didn't think they could ever have? Really?

Kelly may be an even more prominent figure in Fort Myers this spring. This Tom Powers (Pioneer Press) column certainly implies so.

It also contains a phony scrapegoat for 201l's sloppy fundamentals -- too many players from outside the organization:

In the past, the Twins were fortunate to have fairly stable batches of minor leaguers who played together, learned together and advanced together. Last year, there was a huge influx of players from other organizations. All those new guys, with all their different ways of doing things, struggled to mesh. They reverted to their old ways too many times.

"All this mixing and matching was too much," Kelly said. "You take Nishi (Tsuyoshi Nishioka). He was learning everything from scratch. It was all really different for him. We don't know what he's going to do. Is he going to revert back like he did things in Japan?"

That sounds logical. It isn't factual, at least not for the major league team. That "huge influx" of players from outside the Twins system simply didn't happen. The Twins used 22 position players in 2011 (counting Jim Thome, who was strictly a hitter). Only Nishioka and two catchers, Rene Rivera and Steve Holm, were new to the Twins organization. Of the rest, only Drew Butera, Alexi Casilla, Jason Repko, Thome and Delmon Young have ever played for any other organization, majors or minors, and Butera, Casilla and Young had been in the Twins system for at least three years apiece entering 2011.

Kelly cites Nishioka as an example, but when you really look at it, you discover that Nishioka is really the only available example. The vast majority of playing time went to players theoretically well-steeped in The Twins Way.

The fundamental failures of 2011 -- the sloppy rundowns, the dumb baserunning, the given-away at-bats -- are better laid to a rot in the organization, or to a lack of talent, than to too many outsiders. It is to be hoped that Kelly and the others recognize that but are merely unwilling to publicly criticize the minor league staff.

Slowey moves on to Cleveland

2012-01-20T17:47:00.000-06:00

Kevin Slowey was 39-29
with a 4.66 ERA in his
time with the Twins —
including 0-8, 6.67 in
2001.

When the Twins traded Kevin Slowey to Colorado, about the only good thing in it for the pitcher was that it got him out of what had become a poisonous situation in Minnesota.

Coors Field isn't a prime place to pitch to begin with, and it's particularly inhospitable for an extreme fly-ball pitcher such as Slowey. The Twins, if they were trying to punish him with the trade, picked the right destination.

But things change. The Rockies recently traded outfielder Seth Smith to Oakland for two starting pitchers, giving them a surplus of arms with which to fill out their rotation. Meanwhile, Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona turned out not to be Fausto Carmona. He's really Roberto Hernandez Heredia, and he's really 31, not 28.

There's some speculation that the Indians may seek to negate Carmona/Heredia's contract. At the very least, it's going to be a whole lot more difficult for the pitcher to get his visa.

So the Indians today traded for Slowey. And whereas the Twins netted a pitcher (Daniel Turpen) who didn't fare so well in Double A, the Rockies got Zach Putnam, who (a) has reached the majors; (b) pitched well in Triple A and (c) was ranked by Baseball America as Cleveland's No. 10 prospect.

This situation appears a whole lot better for Slowey. And it also appears, again, that the Twins found another way to mishandle him.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Other trades of 2011

2012-01-20T03:52:00.000-06:00

Jose Morales hit .297
in his three partial
seasons with the Twins.

When: Dec. 16, 2010
What: The Twins sent catcher Jose Morales to Colorado for left-handed pitcher Paul Bargas
Value: Bargas not only hasn't reached the majors, he didn't pitch at all in 2011 because of a brain tumor. Morales opened the season as the Rockies' No. 2 catcher but had only 71 plate appearances (-0.1 WAR, 1 win share). He was nontendered this offseason and signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Twins motivation: Open a spot on the 40-man roster

The Twins traded Morales because they needed roster space to re-sign Jim Thome and Carl Pavano, because he was out of options and would have to clear waivers to be sent to the minors, and because they had decided they prefered Drew Butera's defensive chops to Morales' batting average.

Bargas reported to camp with an obvious health problem and was quickly found to have a brain tumor. Chip Scoggins of the Star Tribune earlier this month wrote about Bargas, who expects to be in camp this spring. (As a sign of how much I like the piece, I link to it despite the Strib's paywall). I don't know enough about Bargas' talent to be optimistic about his future as a pitcher, but I sure will root for him. (Update: Fixed the link.)

When: Jan. 26, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Dusty Hughes off waivers from the Kansas City Royals
Value: Hughes was awful with the Twins (9.95 ERA in 12.2 innings; -0.4 WAR, 0 win shares)
Twins motivation: What I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: He had gotten Twins lefties out while with K.C., and the Twins took this as an indication of his talent.

I still remember seeing one particularly wicked breaking ball Hughes threw in a spring training game to freeze Carl Crawford; that single pitch had me briefly convinced he was a shrewd pickup (and a silly discard by the Royals). He didn't throw enough such pitches, however.

He was outrighted in May. He has signed a minor league contract with Atlanta.

Rob Delaney wasn't
even deemed worthy
of a draft pick as an
amateur player

When: Jan. 28, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Rob Delaney on waivers to Tampa Bay
Value: Delaney made four appearances for the Rays with an ERA of 10.80; no win shares and -0.2 WAR
Twins motivation: Created a spot on the 40-man roster for Hughes.

Delaney, like Anthony Slama, put up good numbers in the minors for the Twins, but the Twins were unwilling to give him a real chance in the majors. The Rays designated Delaney for assignment in September to open a spot for phenom Matt Moore; ~~it's unclear to me if Delaney is still in their system or if he's a free agent~~ he signed this month with Miami.

When: March 20, 2011
What: Lost right-handed pitcher Pat Neshek on waivers to San Diego
Value: Neshek worked 24.2 innings for the Padres with an ERA of 4.01; more tellingly, he walked 22 (and struck out 20) in those 24.2 innings. He had 1 win share and 0.0 WAR.
Twins motivation: They wanted to open a spot on the 40-man roster.

It was significant that the Twins dumped Neshek even though he still had an option left; that indicates that the organization either had concluded that he was unlikely to regain his pre-injury effectiveness and/or didn't want him around.

He was up and down with the Padres, and he is currently a free agent.

When: Aug. 25, 2011
What: Lost designated hitter Jim Thome on waivers to Cleveland
Value: He had 13 win shares total for the season, 0.5 WAR with the Indians.
Twins motivation: Cleared his salary off the books for the last six weeks or so of the season, gave him a chance to be at least in the fringes of a pennant race and an opportunity to make amends with the fans of his first major league team.

Jim Thome pretended
to play third base for
one pitch against the
Twins in a September
game.

Big name, exceedingly minor deal. It was originally announced as a player-to-be-named trade, but once it was obvious that the Indians weren't making the postseason they changed it to straight cash and not much of it.

Thome has signed with Philadelphia for 2012, and the Phillies are making noises about playing him at first base on occasion. Good luck with that.

When: Sept. 27, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Esmerling Vasquez off waivers from Arizona
Value: The Twins did not add him to the active roster for the final week of the season.
Twins motivation: He's a power arm bullpen possibility.

The Diamondbacks needed to clear space on their 40-man roster, and lopped Vasquez, who has pitched in 141 major league games for the D'backs (137 innings, 80 walks, 120 strikeouts). Good arm, uncertain control. The Twins are collecting a bunch of this kind of arm and hoping one of them can figure it out.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed right-handed pitcher Jeff Gray off waivers from Seattle.
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Twins motivation: Another bullpen option.

I'm including this transaction and the following one with the 2011 season because they came just before Bill Smith was removed from the general manager's job, and they ought to be included.

Gray is a knock-around reliever who has been in the majors with Oakland, the Cubs, the White Sox and Seattle. I'm not particularly enthused about him, and would expect that Vasquez and Lester Oliveros (and others) are ahead of him on the totem pole, but Gray is on the 40-man roster, so he's got a chance to make the team this spring.

When: Oct. 31, 2011
What: Claimed left-handed pitcher Matt Maloney off waivers from Cincinnati
Value: Has not pitched for the Twins
Motivation: Provides some depth for the starting rotation.

Maloney hasn't established himself as a major leaguer, and his stuff isn't all that impressive, but he's put up good numbers in Triple A. Maybe he's what's derisively known as a Quadruple A pitcher, but I suspect he'd be an improvement over Nick Blackburn if given a shot. Of course, Blackburn has two more years and some $10 million left on his contract, so he's got dibs on the rotation berth.

Implications of Joel Zumaya

2012-01-19T00:04:00.000-06:00

Joel Zumaya made
one spring training
appearance in
2011, then had
fresh surgery on his
2010 elbow fracture.

The Twins announced Wednesday that Joel Zumaya passed his physical. Given his extensive injury history, that was no mere formality, but the power pitcher is now on the 40-man roter.

Let us assume that Zoom-Zoom is sufficiently sound-sound to pitch coming out of spring training. The assumption here is that he'll immediately join holdover Glen Perkins as the primary bridges to closer Matt Capps. But ...

Ron Gardenhire likes to use his relief pitchers on consecutive days;
and that may not be optimal or even practical with Zumaya.

One of Gardenhire's strengths over his decade-plus as manager has been his ability to get production out of his bullpen. His two weakest seasons in that regard were 2008 and 2011 -- and those were the post-operative seasons of Jesse Crain and Joe Nathan, respectively. In both years, Gardy was reluctant to use his post-op power guy on back-to-back days, and the limitation forced him to go to less optimal (and less successful) match-ups.

The Twins, therefore, will still be looking seriously at their flock of unestablished right-handed hard throwers, looking for one who can harness his talent and strike out righties in big spots. Alex Burnett, Lester Oliveros, Esmerling Vasquez, Deolis Guerra, Jeff Gray ... even with Zumaya on board, the door to a key bullpen role is still wide open for these guys. And so is the door back to the minors.

Zumaya is certainly Plan A. But few Plan A's come with so much uncertainty, or with such (probably) limited unavailability. A Plan B is always wise; in this case, it's necessary, even if the Zumaya addition meets its ambitions.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Delmon Young trade

2012-01-18T02:11:00.000-06:00

Delmon Young hit some
big home runs for Detroit in
the postseason.

When: Aug. 15, 2011
What: In a waiver deal, the Twins sent outfielder Delmon Young to the Detroit Tigers for right-handed pitcher Lester Oliveros and left-handed pitcher Cole Nelson.
Value: Young had 10 total win shares in 2011; he had 0.1 WAR with the Twins and -0.1 with the Tigers. Oliveros had 1 win share for the season, 0.1 WAR with the Twins. Nelson, a Minnesota native, spent the season in high-A ball.
Twins motivation: They dumped a veteran they weren't planning to retain for two young pitchers (Oliveros is 23, Nelson 22).

This deal was the white flag, the moment at which the Twins conceded that they were not making a run at another AL Central title. This was the first -- and last -- time Bill Smith traded away a veteran for prospects in mid season; his previous in-season trades had gone the other way.

Young had a bizarre season. He displayed almost no power with the Twins (slugging percentage .357), with four homers in more than 300 at-bats, but the defensive metrics depicted an excellent left fielder. He hammered eight regular season homers in less than 170 at-bats with Detroit, and the metrics paint him as a disaster in the outfield there. The Baseball Reference version of wins above replacement actually has him playing better for the Twins than with the Tigers.

So brutal was Young in the outfield with Detroit that by season's end there was speculation that the Tigers would non-tender him (which is what the Twins would likely have done had they not traded him). That didn't happen, perhaps because Young bashed another five homers during the Tigers' two playoff rounds. (He and the Tigers reached an agreement on Tuesday, avoiding an arbitration hearing, for $6.75 million.)

One interesting aspect of this trade is that Jim Leyland installed Young in the No. 3 spot in the batting order, right in front of MVP candidate Miguel Cabrera. Even in 2010, in what appeared to be a breakout season, Young seldom got out of the bottom half of Ron Gardenhire's lineups.

Oliveros is in the mix for a bullpen role in 2012; like many Tigers prospects, he throws hard with uncertain control. (Baseball America says his is the best fastball in the Twins organization.) Nelson is another power arm, albeit further from the majors.

Jesus Montero, Michael Pineda and Francisco Liriano

2012-01-17T04:12:00.000-06:00

Jesus Montero can flat out hit,
but his defense is lacking. He may
wind up at first base or DH.

Michael Pineda faded in the
second half last year, but still
struck out more than a batter
an inning.

An interesting trade made this weekend (pending physicals): the Yankees swapped hitter-without-a-position Jesus Montero to Seattle for young power starter Michael Pineda.

Interesting because the trade involves two guys widely viewed as future stars. Montero is nominally a catcher, but there is a great deal of doubt that he can stick behind the plate. But there is no doubt that he can hit, and the M's, who have done pretty well at developing starting pitchers, are sorely lacking in impact bats. And the Yankees have a wealth of catching prospects and no real other place to put Montero in the lineup.

And interesting because last spring, when there was a flurry of rumor that the Twins were shopping Francisco Liriano around, Montero struck me as one trade target that I would not complain about.

This trade strongly suggests that the Yankees wouldn't have made such a deal even up.

Pineda has one year of service time, which means he has two years before he even becomes arbitration eligible. Lirano last spring was two years away from free agency. Even if one regards Liriano, as of the end of the 2010 season, and Pineda today as equivalent talents, the difference in financial leverage makes Pineda far more valuable.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday reported this weekend that the Cubs were after Montero PLUS talent from the Yankees in exchange for Matt Garza. Again, Garza is two years from free agency; Pineda is more valuable.

The Joel Zumaya lottery ticket

2012-01-16T00:23:00.000-06:00

Joel Zumaya fractured his elbow
throwing a pitch against
the Twins in 2010. He has
since had two surgeries on the
damaged joint.

The Twins have reportedly reached an incentive-laden contract agreement with Joel Zumaya.

You wanted a power arm in the Minnesota bullpen? Now, THAT's a power arm.

The problem, of course, is that Zoom-Zoom was only available-available because he's frequently hurt-hurt. He didn't pitch at all last year, and he hasn't thrown even 40 innings in any season since his rookie year of 2006.

A 100-mph fastball does nobody any good if its possessor can't take the hill.

Still, buying this particular lottery ticket is a good risk. It's a relatively low risk deal -- according to the StarTribune, while Zumaya gets a spot on the 40-man roster, the contract itself is not guaranteed -- and it's a potentially significant payoff if it hits. (The deal itself is not official until Zumaya passes a physical, which in itself may prove a hurdle.)

A healthy Zumaya, if there is such a thing, would give the Twins a first-rate right-handed power arm to pair with Glen Perkins get out of late-inning jams and set up Matt Capps.

The attached photo comes from the last game Zumaya pitched, which prompted part of this post.

The Sunday Funnies

2012-01-15T06:20:00.001-06:00

Casey Stengel is courting his future wife Edna, and she finally comes from California to New York to see him play.

In the first inning, Casey lays down a bunt and beats it out with a head first slide into first. He then steals second base with a beautiful hook slide. A couple pitches later, a curve bounces in the dirt, and Stengel takes third on a close play and another slide. Then he scores on a short fly ball, with yet another slide.

As the game progresses, Stengel makes a couple diving catches in the outfield — and his run stands up. They win 1-0.

Stengel showers, dresses, dashes off to meet Edna. He's bursting with pride -- the hero of the game, and his girl got to see it.

But she doesn't seemed impressed, and Casey tries to coax a complement out of her. "Well, what did you think?"

"Oh, I know you won," Edna says, "but why did you keep falling down out there?"

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Scott Diamond

2012-01-14T04:07:00.000-06:00

Scott Diamond in 2011: 1-5, 5.08 in
Minnesota, 4-14, 55.5 in Rochester.

When: Dec. 9, 2010 and March 28, 2011
What: The Twins selected left-handed pitcher Scott Diamond from the Atlanta Braves system in the Rule V draft on the first date, traded right-handed pitcher Billy Bullock for his rights on the second date.
Value: Bullock spent 2011 in the minors, mostly in Double A with a one-inning taste of Triple A. Diamond spent most of 2011 in Triple A, but made seven starts for Minnesota in the second half of the season. Diamond earned one win share and 0.1 WAR.
Twins motivation: Discerning that is pretty much the point of this post.

The acquisition of Scott Diamond doesn't currently fit my criteria as a major deal. Yet it's getting the full treatment here because:

It was complex;
It involves a second-round draft pick (Bullock);
It could become significant, if Diamond emerges as a member of the starting rotation or Bullock becomes a standout reliever;
It says something about the scarcity of left-handed pitching;
I like Diamond for non-objective reasons; and
It's my blog and you can't stop me.

Diamond appeared a highly sensible Rule V pick when the Twins plucked him. But he got only limited exposure in exhibition play and didn't display the command his scouting reports said he had. He didn't force his way onto the 25-man roster, and Rule V guys have to be on the active roster or returned whence they came.

The Twins didn't want to give him up, and they surrendered 2009 second-rounder Bullock to get Diamond's unfettered rights and then sent the lefty to Triple A.

This deal was not well-received in the Twins blog community. And considering the rate in subsequent months with which the Twins collecting potential power arms for relief work (Lester Oliveros, Jeff Gray, Esmerling Vasquez ...) since dealing the hard-throwing Bullock, it remains a curious decision.

A good part of what happened here, I have become convinced, is that the Twins found themselves bereft of left-handed starters in the upper minors. Left-handed pitching is inherently valuable -- it's why you so often hear the phrase "left-handed and breathing" used to explain why marginal hurlers get so many chances -- and the Twins were willing to risk overpaying for a southpaw for the Rochester rotation who might also serve as a Plan C for the major league rotation.

And besides, hard-throwing bullpen prospects aren't all that hard to come by. Hard-throwers with command, that's another thing.

Bullock didn't have a particularly great season in the Atlanta organization. He did pile up the strikeouts (more than 12 Ks per nine innings), but he also piled up the walks (more than six walks per nine innings). Diamond didn't shine in 2011 either, and in the majors displayed a Kevin Slowey-like tendency to pitch acceptably well for four or five innings before crumbling.

But judging a starter on his first seven major league starts is a fool's game. Greg Maddux had an ERA above 5 in his first full season in a big league rotation.

I don't expect either Bullock or Diamond to open 2012 with their respective parent club. I don't know that either is all that likely to grow into a key performer in the majors. Bullock is too wild; Diamond's stuff is marginal.

A pitcher named Silva

2012-01-13T03:03:00.000-06:00

The Twins apparently have a new Venezuelan pitcher named Silva — not Carlos, who signed a minor league deal earlier this month with the Red Sox, but a 16-year-old named Mauricio, who has signed with Minnesota for $370,000.

According to Baseball America, the young right-hander

pitches in the low 90s and has topped out at 93 mph with heavy sink. He also flashes a power curveball in the high 70s with occasional hard bite. His changeup gets mixed reviews, but he shows a feel for the pitch with some deception.

All of which is well and good, but the key thing to remember right now is: He's 16 years old. Which means he's a long time away from Target Field.

One thing we can take away from this: The Twins have cut back on their presence in Venezuela, but they haven't abandoned it. As they continue to expand their efforts to find international talent, that's a definite plus.

---

Bud Selig had said, repeatedly, that his current term as commissioner was it, that he was going to retire.

On Friday he was given, and accepted, a new two-year contract.

We may never be rid of him.

Contemplating Justin Morneau

2012-01-12T00:28:00.000-06:00

Justin Morneau's
last two seasons have
been cut short by
concussions.

Justin Morneau's health remains a matter of uncertainty. He told the Pioneer Press this week that he has not begun baseball activities, but that the concussion symptoms that ended his 2011 season are less severe than they were at this point the previous winter.

This passes for optimism in the Twins world. The Twins are, for better or worse, committed to Morneau, not merely for 2012 but for 2013 as well.

I have suggested here a few times that Morneau might be restricted to DH. Morneau -- with Terry Ryan in agreement -- dismisses that notion, saying that if he is indeed too concussion prone to play in the field he ought not play at all. There is a good deal of sense in that position, both from the viewpoint of Morneau's health and as a practical matter for the team.

The truth is, the Twins are not really set up to have Morneau as a full-time DH. If, as desired, Chris Parmelee plays at Triple A, the non-Morneau options for first base figure to be the catchers (Joe Mauer and Ryan Doumit), Trevor Plouffe and perhaps Luke Hughes, none of whom have a great deal of experience at the position.

If Morneau is forced to go on the disabled list, Parmelee figures to be Plan B. But if Morneau is merely in and out of the lineup, or DHing five days a week, Parmelee is unlikely to be on the major league roster.

Imagine a line representing Morneau's playing time, with the point on the extreme left standing for 162 games at first base and the point on the extreme right standing for him missing the full season, and all the points between represening some combination of games at first base, games as designated hitter and games sat out.

The Twins, as I see it, will be better equipped to handle a spot on either extreme than a spot in the middle.

Baseball Minnesota -- er, America

2012-01-11T01:12:00.000-06:00

Miguel Sano, wearing No. 24, moves for
a ground ball during spring training drills.

A fresh issue of Baseball America showed up in my mailbox Tuesday, and it's loaded with Twins-specific stuff, starting with the cover shot of power-hitting prospect Miguel Sano (with the cover line Manchild Miguel Sano could be the best Twins prospect since Joe Mauer).

Also inside:

A Jerry Crasnick column on the return of Terry Ryan. (This, I'm sure, is a slightly revised version of one of Crasnick's pieces for ESPN.com).
A Jerry Manuel column on Gene Glynn and the importance of winning at Rochester this year. This is, I'm convinced, a bigger deal than most of us fans realize. Keeping Rochester as their Triple A affiliate is very important to the organization, and the contract is up after the 2012 season.
The Twins top 10 prospects story. The issue is built around the prospect ratings for the five AL Central teams, including the Twins.

A few things gleaned from the rankings:

Last summer's first-round draft pick, infielder Levi Michael, was known to be playing with an injury as North Carolina made it to the College World Series. Michael signed late and not only didn't play in the minors last season, he didn't play in instructionals either. BA says Michael's injury was "initially misdiagnosed."
A reason to try to get to some Midwest League games next summer: The Beloit Snappers infield is likely to have Sano (prospect No. 1) at third base, Eddie Rosario (No. 3) at second base and Michael (No. 6) at shortstop. That could be the infield in Minnesota by the end of 2014.
BA is not as high on Chris Parmelee (No. 9) as I am. Their write-up on him concludes: "He'll have to improve against lefties to be more than a second-division regular or platoon player."
Those of us eager to see Brian Dozier (No. 10) get his shot in the Twins middle infield in 2012 may be disappointed. BA's summary on him is "Dozier is similar to Jamey Carroll, whom the Twins signed for two years this offseason. He could replace Carroll at the end of that contract, or learn under him as a utility player before that."

The Twins' top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America:

Sano; outfielder Joe Benson; Rosario; outfielder Aaron Hicks; outfielder Oswaldo Arcia; Michael; pitcher Liam Hendricks; pitcher Kyle Gibson; Parmelee; Dozier.

It's all worth checking out.

A history lesson: Collusion and 12-man pitching staffs

2012-01-10T02:00:00.000-06:00

The Twins Geek, John Bonnes, on Sunday had a post puzzling over who the 25th man on the 1987 Twins postseason roster was.

The answer, which I am old enough to know, is: Nobody. In 1987 -- and in a handful of surrounding seasons -- there was a "gentleman's agreement" among the teams to go with just 24 players on the active roster. Officially, they could have 25; nobody did.

It was part of the sorry collusion episode, in which the owners, led by then-Commissioner Peter Ueberroth, sought to undermine the collective bargaining agreement with the players union. Most prominent was the agreement not to pursue other team's free agents.

The collusion attempt proved costly in a variety of ways. The players union won massive damages in three grievance hearings. The stiff penalties prompted two rounds of expansion, as the owners sought to recoup the losses by dunning outsiders. The episode also further poisoned the waters for future labor talks, helping set up the strike of 1994.

Now the teams are required to have 25 players on their active roster.

But the effects are still evident on rosters. Follow me here: For years teams typically carried 10 pitchers and 15 hitters. Managers in the late 1980s, forced to trim a player, universally opted to keep 10 pitchers and 14 position players.

After four years of that, they'd become accustomed to that size bench. They had gotten used to the limitations of five (in the American League) bench options, had become used to making sure they had at least one Swiss Army knife of a multi-position player on hand.

And when the de facto rosters expanded, Tony LaRussa -- of course -- used the 25th spot for an extra pitcher. Memory tells me he initially used the slot to carry a Rule V selection; eventually he used to add somebody he actually wanted to use. He won. Other teams followed his example.

Tony LaRussa: Father of the expanded pitching staff

Perhaps the expansion of pitching staffs would have happened anyway. There were other influences, in particular the rise of pitch counts, and certainly the expansion didn't stop at 11. But LaRussa's realization in 1990 that he didn't need that 15th position player got the ball rolling.

Now there are managers suggesting that rosters should be expanded to 26 players -- which, if it should happen, would probably mean 13-man pitching staffs.

Hall of Fame: Barry Larkin is in

2012-01-09T15:54:00.000-06:00

Barry Larkin is the 25th
shortstop elected to the
Hall of Fame.

It took three years, but the baseball writers finally elected Barry Larkin to the Hall of Fame.

Now if they'd just wise up to Alan Trammell and Tim Raines ...

Jack Morris got 66.7 percent, a new high for him, 48 votes short. That historically would be a very good sign for his eventual election -- it's more support than Larkin got last year -- but the historic precedents don't know what loaded first-year classes lie immediately ahead, and I suspect this will be Morris' high-water mark. He only has two more years on the writers' ballot.

Other former Twins on the ballot: Brad Radke got two votes, and Terry Mulholland, Phil Nevin and Ruben Sierra got shut out. The closest thing to a surprise there is that Radke got two votes. All four, obviously, are one and done on the ballot (players need at least 5 percent to stick).

Jorge Posada vs. Ted Simmons

2012-01-09T02:28:00.000-06:00

Jorge Posada hit 275
career home runs.

The word during the weekend was that Jorge Posada has decided to retire rather that try to extend his career with some team other than the New York Yankees.

Which raises the immediate question with a (minimum) five-year wait for an answer: Should he go into the Hall of Fame?

My immediate answer is yes. He had a 17-year career as a key component of a great team. I think the 1996-2001 Yankees have be best claim of any squad as the greatest dynasty in baseball history. It deserves more plaques in the Hall that "just" Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera.

And then I thought of Ted Simmons.

Simba and Posada strike me as similar players. They weren't great defensive catchers, but they were good enough to stick behind the plate, and at the dish they were definite pluses for their lineups. Both were switch hitters; neither was reckoned the best catcher in his era, but Simmons was a contemporary of Johnny Bench, and Posada's career overlapped with Ivan Rodriguez and Joe Mauer.

Ted Simmons hit 248
career home runs.

Simmons made nine all-star teams in his 21-year career and finished in the top 10 of MVP voting three times; Posada made five all-star teams and had two top-10 MVP years. Posada's career slash stats look better than Simmons', but the 1970s (Simmons' era) was a much tougher time for hitters.

Posada's career OPS+ --on-base plus slugging, adjusted for park effects and compared to his league -- is 121, meaning that he was 21 percent above league average. Simmons' OPS+ is 117.

Simmons appeared on just one Hall of Fame ballot, in 1994, and got just 3.7 percent of the vote. That's not necessarily the biggest travesty of recent balloting, but it's up there.

Posada will be a worthy inductee when his time comes. I don't know that he's all that much more worthy than Simmons.

The Sunday Funnies

2012-01-08T01:14:00.000-06:00

It's 2000. Rickey Henderson approaches his Seattle teammate John Olerud with a question: Why do you wear a batting helmet in the field?

Olerud explains that he had a brain aneurysm while in college and wears the helmet to protect the place in his skull where the surgeons went in to repair it.

"That's cool," Henderson says. "I had a teammate last year with the Mets who did the same thing."

"Yeah," Olerud replies. "That was me."

---

For the record, Olerud has said that conversation never occurred. He also said it's a plausible story because it's Rickey Henderson.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

2012-01-07T01:00:00.000-06:00

Bill Smith looks on as Tsuyoshi Nishioka dons
his Twins jersey during his signing press conference.

When: December 17, 2010
What: Completed the acquisition of infielder Tsuyoshi Nishioka from the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese Pacific League. The Twins paid the Marines $5.3 million in a posting fee for the rights to negotiate with him, and signed Nishioka to a three year deal worth $9.25 million, plus a fourth-season option.
Value: He had 3 win shares and a WAR of -1.8 in an injury-shortened 2011.
Twins motivation: They were looking for a cheaper, long-term anchor for their middle infield.

Many things went desperately wrong for the Twins in 2011. One of the biggest was the failure of the Nishioka signing.

As I said at the time, he wasn't going to be a star. But he was simply not close to a quality major league regular. He didn't hit; he lacked the arm strength to play shortstop; he suffered a broken leg in the first week of the season on the double play pivot as a second baseman.

Terry Ryan has said frequently since assuming the general manager's job that the Twins were giving Nishioka a mulligan. He had the early injury, he had the cultural transition, he had a hamstring problem in September. It was a lost season -- but the Twins still have an investment in him, and some $6 million yet to pay him. So they'll hope that a winter's rehab will solve the leg problems that bedeviled him last year, and that a sounder leg will mean a sounder player.

The Twins allowed him plenty of leeway in 2011. They treated him as an established star, which he was in Japan. I doubt he'll get the same hands-off treatment this time around. The financial investment probably means he'll open the season on the major league roster, but he'll enter camp behind newcomer Jamie Carroll and holdover Alexi Casilla -- and if he plays to last season's low level, he won't keep even the bench job all that long.

The malign influence of Tsuyoshi Nishioka

2012-01-06T02:19:00.000-06:00

Tsuyoshi Nishioka may have done more than anybody
to make American teams wary of Japanese players.

Nobody involved in it is a fan of the posting process by which Japanese players generally come to the States. It remains largely because nobody's come up with an alternative that (a) gives the player involved some say before uprooting his career/life to another culture on another continent and (b) protects the Japanese team, which stands to lose a presumably valuable on-field asset.

Quite a few Japanese stars have migrated to the U.S. side of the Pacific over the past couple of decades, lured by the combination of better money and tougher competition. Some -- Ichiro Suzuki being the primest of examples -- have been outright stars in the States. Several have been useful regulars, at least for a few years, even if more was originally expected of them. Some have been outright busts.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka's one season in the United States was not merely a notable bust. It appears to have changed the way American teams deal with posted players in ways other disappointments (such as Kenji Johjima and Kei Igawa) did not.

A couple of examples being played out this offseason:

The Milwaukee Brewers won the posting rights to outfielder Norichika Aoki but, with time dwindling to sign him, won't get serious about it until after they've run him through a private workout in Arizona this weekend. The front office, we can assume, doesn't want to commit the money until they've seen something of his skills with their own eyes.
The Yankees and infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima failed to come to terms at all. (The Yankees posting rights expire today, but they announced Thursday that talks were ended). Nakajima, 29, is a career .302 hitter in Japan, but the Yanks viewed him as strictly backup material behind Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano, and a rumored sign-and-trade deal never materialized, probably because there was no American team that thought him worth installing as a regular.

Nishioka's failures in 2011 are reflecting back on his peers. Had Nishioka been the competent major league regular I anticipated, the American teams might not be this cautious. Teams aren't looking at Nakajima as the next Taz Iguchi or Akinori Iwamura, both of whom were second base regulars for World Series teams; they're fearing the next Nishioka.

Conspicuous by their absence

2012-01-05T02:30:00.000-06:00

David Bromberg was
the Twins' minor league
pitcher of the year
in 2010.

One might think that 25 non-roster invites would pretty much cover everybody in the Twins organization worth considering, but there are two names not on the list released Tuesday worth noting: David Bromberg and Anthony Slama.

The two right-handers were in camp last spring -- both were then on the 40-man roster -- but had injuries during the season. They were removed from the 40 after the season and passed over during the Rule V draft.

And neither will be in major league camp this spring.

I wasn't surprised when the Twins moved them off the 40, and at least in Bromberg's case I didn't, and still don't, read into it a deeply diminished status for the player. I saw it, in both cases, as a calculated risk. The Twins gambled that other teams wouldn't claim either off waivers or Rule V because of their 2011 injuries, and they were right.

Bromberg, a starter, wasn't reckoned major-league ready entering camp last year, and certainly after a season lost to a fractured forearm (hit by a line drive) he wasn't going to be a serious candidate for the major league roster this spring either.

Anthony Slama has
walked seven men in
his seven major
league innings.

Slama, a reliever, is another matter. He was never as highly regarded (at least by the organization) as Bromberg -- his good minor league numbers written off as the fluky result of a delivery that wouldn't deceive major league hitters -- but by last spring he was as ready to pitch in the majors as he was ever going to be.

But the Twins had other options they liked better, and Slama started experiencing arm problems in spring training. He got a little big-league time in the summer, but was shut down by August with elbow woes. He avoided surgery, but lost his 40-man roster spot. He's been pitching winter ball in Mexico, and reportedly doing well, but ... the Twins still didn't see fit to invite him to camp.

Slama has three seasons of Triple A ball on his record, and an ERA with Rochester of 2.59, but the Twins don't trust his stuff or his command. If they're not going to look at him this spring, with as many holes as they have in the bullpen, they never will.

Non-roster invitees and Hall of Fame links

2012-01-04T00:30:00.001-06:00

The Twins emerged from their brief holiday dormancy Tuesday with the announcement of 25 non-roster invitees. Coupled with 39 players on the major league roster, and the Twins figure to have 64 players in major league camp when things get started in mid-February.

Phil Dumatrait, who
spent much of 2011 on
the major league roster
after signing as a
non-roster invitee,
hopes to repeat the
experience.

To be blunt about it, a goodly percentage of the invitees aren't serious candidates to make the major league roster. Many are either minor league free agents signed with an eye to beefing up the Triple A roster — remember, one of the Twins goals this year is to appease the Rochester franchise by providing a quality team — or good prospects who lack the service time to force the Twins to roster them.

I've written here before about Brian Dozier and Chris Herrmann, and expect to in the future. They have a future, but that future is not Target Field in April.

The problem with having so many bodies in camp is the fairness factor. It's one thing to have Dan Rohlfing in camp as one of eight catchers; he knows he's there mainly to catch bullpen sessions. But the likes of outfielder Wilkin Ramirez or catcher J.R. Towles (each of whom has had some major league time) may not be pleased with the playing time they get in the exhibition games.

Branch Rickey used to talk about finding quality out of quantity. I'm not sure there's a lot of quality to be found in this bunch — they are, after all, players who aren't on anybody's 40-man roster — and I'm not sure spring training is long enough to identify it if it's there.

----

Beyond that, the biggest thing on the horizon may be the Hall of Fame election results, which are to be announced Monday. I've written a couple posts about that in the past week, but here are some other pieces on the topic I can recommend:

Chris Jaffe of Hardball Times offers his annual prediction of the vote. He's usually pretty spot on. His take: Barry Larkin in, Jack Morris closer but still out.

Joe Posnanski talks about the unintended consequences that have come in the past when the writers decide they need to be really restrictive about inductees. To boil a long post down to a sentence: Their attempts to tighten standards backfire. It's relevant to today because of the steroids debate.

A rough draft of the bullpen

2012-01-03T07:51:00.000-06:00

The Twins current estimated 2012 payroll stands at about $99 million (there are a few arbitration-eligibile guys, like Alexi Casilla, Francisco Liriano and Glen Perkins, whose salaries aren't yet set), and there remains one unused spot on the 40-man roster.


With five veterans for the starting rotation, Anthony Swarzak is the front-runner for the long man job.

Despite the hopes/dreams/desires of some in Twins-blogland, I suspect the Twins are done signing players to the major-league roster. They like having an open spot on the 40; it allows them to add a non-roster guy this spring without having to waive anybody. And $99 million is real close to the $100 million target.

Setting aside the question of whether the payroll ceiling is wise (I've said my piece on that already), this means that as a practical matter the Twins will go into training camp aiming to piece together a bullpen out of the parts currently on hand.

Using the roles-oriented format I deployed last spring, and anticipating the usual six-man bullpen:

Closer: Matt Capps
Setup 1: Glen Perkins
LOOGY 1: Brian Duensing
Setup2/MR1:
MR2:
LOOGY2/MR3:
Long man: Anthony Swarzak

Three vacancies at this point. And the major need is for some right-handed arms who can miss bats.

Kyle Waldrop is
finally on the 40-man
roster, but he still has
an uphill battle to
secure a bullpen job,
as he's not a power arm.

The Jason Marquis signing really works against a few guys, specifically Terry Doyle, Scott Diamond, Matt Maloney and Jeff Manship. Without Marquis, Swarzak might have been the favorite to open the season in the rotation, with those four also in the competition -- and with the long man/swingman role available as a consolation prize. Now Swarzak figures to go into camp as the favorite to retain the long man job, and it's not easy to imagine the Twins keeping two guys for the role (though the lefties might have a chance).

A name to keep in mind as this competition shapes up is Jason Bulger, a big guy who throws hard and has a impressive strikeout rate over 123-plus innings with the Angels. The Twins signed him to a minor-league deal early this offseason. His control record isn't good, but he is definitely a power arm, and the Twins like having a power arm in that SU2/MR1 role.

Let's rerun the above roles and plug in specific names competing for specific jobs:

Closer: Capps
Setup 1: Perkins
LOOGY 1: Duensing
Setup2/MR1: (Bulger/Lester Oliveros/Esmerling Vasquez/Alex Burnett/Jeff Gray)
MR2: (Kyle Waldrop/Carlos Gutierrez/Deolis Guerra)
LOOGY2/MR3: (Diamond/Maloney/the runners up for the previous two slots)
Long man: Swarzak (Doyle, Diamond, Maloney, Manship)

Waldrop, Gutierrez, Guerra, Diamond and Burnett all have options left. I think Manship is out of options, and Maloney and Vasquez may be as well. Doyle is a Rule V guy, which limits the Twins choices with him. He's either on the 25-man roster, returns to the White Sox or traded for.

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: The Hardy-Hoey trade

2012-01-03T04:17:00.000-06:00

J.J. Hardy was charged with 11 errors in 2010
with the Twins, six in 2011 with Baltimore.

When: Dec. 9, 2010
What: The Twins traded shortstop J.J. Hardy, infielder Brendan Harris and cash to Baltimore for right-handed pitchers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson.
Value: Hardy is credited with 22 win shares and 4.1 WAR in 2011; Hoey with zero WS and -0.4 WAR. Neither Harris nor Jacobson played in the majors in 2011. Hardy, who turned 29 in August, signed a three-year deal with the Orioles during the 2011 season. Hoey was sold to Toronto this offseason in a waiver deal. Harris is a free agent. Jacobson remains in the Twins system.
Twins motivation: A combination of payroll cutting, adding velocity-oriented bullpen options and the belief that Hardy didn't fit Target Field/wasn't as good as his 2007-08 seasons indicate/was readily replaceable.

As with the Capps-Ramos trade discussed here last week, it would be difficult to make this deal turn out any worse for the Twins than it did in 2011.

Jim Hoey allowed
four homers in
24.2 innings in 2011.

Hoey indeed had a high-velocity fast ball. But he lacked a useful secondary pitch and command and movement on the fastball, which made him imminently hittable and, ultimately, not the successor to the LaTroy Hawkins-Jesse Crain line of middle-relief power arms.

And Hardy had the best offensive season of his rather inconsistent career.

Hardy had two good power seasons for Milwaukee in 2007-08, when he averaged 25 homers. But he fell off badly in 2009, and the Brewers traded him to make room for the younger, rangier and cheaper Alcedes Escobar (whom they later traded in the Zach Greinke deal). With the Twins, Hardy again didn't hit for the anticipated power (six homers) and was limited to 95 starts at shortstop in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota.

With Baltimore in 2011, he bopped 30 homers (and added 27 doubles). Zing!

One factor may be health. He had a hand injury early in the 2010 season and it was never fully healed. He implied last season that he had the same problem early in 2011 and the Orioles (unlike the Twins) medical staff was able to fix it.

Another factor may be ballparks. Home runs come easier in Camden Yards than in Target Field. And he plays more road games now in smaller yards, such as Fenway Park, than he did in the AL Central, where Detroit and Kansas City offer two other difficult places to hit long balls. He hit 15 homers home and road last season; in 2010, he hit one homer in Minnesota, five on the road.

What is Hardy's real level of offensive ability? He has in 2007-11 three seasons of 26, 24 and 30 homers; he also has seasons of 6 and 11. Much of his offensive value is in his power; he has one season in his career with an OBP above .330. If he ain't slugging, he ain't hitting -- and in the offseason of 2010-11, he hadn't slugged for two years.

So Hardy was -- like Ramos -- at a low point of value when the Twins moved him.

The Twins didn't trade him until they had the Tsuyoshi Nishioka deal essentially in place. They expected Nishi to fill one of the middle infield slots; that didn't work either. (I'll discuss the Nishioka deal in another post.) Misreading Nishioka's ability played a role in trading away Hardy.

Then there's this: With the giant Mauer contract about to kick in, the Twins had to get cheaper at other roster spots. Even with the jettisoning of most of the bullpen veterans and the departure of second baseman Orlando Hudson, they essentially needed to clear out one of Carl Pavano, Matt Capps, Delmon Young, Jason Kubel or Hardy.

They chose the one who had had the worst 2010 season. They also unloaded Brendan Harris, although I don't know that they saved much money on that (I think they gave the O's enough cash to pay for Harris' major-league deal).

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Other trades of 2010

2012-01-02T03:46:00.000-06:00

Steve Tolleson got to play in Target Field in 2010,
but not as a member of the home team.

When: Dec. 12, 2009
What: Traded right-handed pitcher Boof Bonser to the Boston Red Sox for right-handed pitcher Chris Province.
Value: Bonser pitched two innings for Boston in 2010 before being released. He has worked 25 major league innings since the trade (all in 2010, mostly with Oakland) with an ERA of 6.12. He recently signed a minor-league deal with the San Francisco Giants. Province did not pitch well in 2010 in the Twins system and decided to quit playing last spring.
Twins motivation: Avoid going to arbitration with Bonser.

Bonser's once-promising career has been derailed by injuries. As matters stand, nothing to see here.

When: Feb.1, 2010
What: Waived infielder Steve Tolleson, who was claimed by Oakland
Value: Tolleson played in 25 games for Oakland in 2010. He spent 2011 in the minors, was traded in midseason to the San Diego Padres, was released after the season and signed to a minor league deal by Baltimore.
Twins motivation: Open a 40-man roster spot that was filled three days later by the signing of Orlando Hudson.

Tolleson's major league future, if any, figures to be as a utility infielder, and he probably doesn't have the arm to handle the shortstop part of the job.

When: Aug. 25, 2010
What: Claimed Randy Flores on waivers from Colorado
Value: Got 11 outs in 11 appearances for the Twins with an ERA of 4.91.
Twins motivation: Injuries to Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay left the Twins short of lefty relievers.

The Twins took a flyer on Flores, and he quickly fell out of favor with Ron Gardenhire.

When: Aug. 27, 2010
What: Traded right-hander Loek Van Mil to the Angels for left-handed reliever Brian Fuentes
Value: Fuentes gave up no runs in 9.2 innings with the Twins. Van Mil has not pitched in the majors

Matt Fox in his
sole game with
Minnesota.

Twins motivation: Injuries to Jose Mijares and Ron Mahay left the Twins short of lefty relievers.

Fuentes -- who had been closing in Anaheim -- was obviously over-qualified for the LOOGY role and was always viewed strictly as a short-term rental. The Twins made no serious attempt to retain him as a free agent, and he signed with Oakland. Van Mil, a unique prospect (7-foot-1 from the Netherlands), had a decent year in Double A and still could, if he ever manages to stay healthy, emerge as a major league relief option.

When: Sept. 9, 2010
What: Waived right-hander Matt Fox, who was claimed by Boston.
Value: Fox has pitched 1.2 major league innings since leaving the Twins. He signed a minor-league deal this offseason with Seattle.
Twins motivation: Opened a spot on the 40-man roster for Ben Revere.

Fox was put on the 40 to make one memorable spot start. My guess is that that will remain the high point of his career.

The Sunday Funnies

2012-01-01T02:59:00.000-06:00

Here's one from Babe Pinelli, who umped in the National League for 22 years and called balls and strikes during Don Larsen's World Series perfect game:

---

With none out, the Cardinals had Cotten Pippen on second and Terry Moore on first. Art Garibaldi banged a sure triple off the right-field wall. From second, Pippen raced around third. But he heard third base coach Miguel Gonzalez (the man who coined the phrase "good field, no hit") yelling and saw him waving his arms, thought he was being told to retreat, and headed back to third -- where he got tagged. Moore, on his was to third, stopped, tried to get to second, and got tagged out in a rundown. Garibaldi's triple turned into a mere single.

And Gonzalez's explanation, according to Pinelli: "I don' say 'stop.' I say, 'Don' bother to stop.' Don' nobody know no heengleesh?"

Two Hall of Fame also-rans

2011-12-31T01:36:00.000-06:00

Today is the deadline for those members of the BBWAA who vote for the Hall of Fame to submit their ballots, and therefore the likely end of the Hall of Fame candidacies of two former Twins pitchers, Brad Radke and Terry Mulholland.

Terry Mulholland was just
getting started in 1987, when
the back of his card said he
had an off-season job as a
gas-station attendant. Really.

Anybody who merely makes a major league roster, even for a day, is a player of rare ability, and those who last the 10 years required to make the HoF ballot are rarer still. Mulholland pitched 20 years in the bigs, two of them for Minnesota; Radke pitched his entire 12-season career for the Twins. Both last pitched during the 2006 season, which made them eligible for the ballot this winter. Neither will (or should) draw enough support to remain on the ballot next year, much less win induction.

Still, I find myself as a Twins fan missing both of them.

Radke in particular. Whenever he makes an appearance in Minnesota I wonder how his shoulder feels after a few years off. It's a silly notion, of course; he's not walking through that door. But still ...

Radke was the anti-Liriano. Right-handed, not blessed with a high-velocity fastball or devastating slider, but adept with the circle change and a master of control -- not only in the sense of locating his pitches but of mastery of his emotions. He might win or he might lose, but Radke was not a pitcher who beat himself. He kept it simple, trusted his stuff and wound up with the third most wins in Twins history.

Mulholland was a baseball nomad. Twenty seasons and 11 teams pitched for. He made 88 appearances in his two seasons with the Twins, and that's the third most he made (behind Philadelphia and the Cubs).

Mulholland showed up in Minnesota for the 2004 season, already age 41, and was, for the first half of the season, a long reliever and mop-up man. In the second half, he was the fifth starter -- 15 starts for the season, in which he went 4-5 with a 4.95 ERA. The Twins were 8-7 in his starts. Not great, but good enough for the back of the rotation.

He was back in 2005, but Ron Gardenhire must have seen something missing, because Mulholland got no starts and few game situations to pitch in. The Twins cut him loose after 2005, and he made five appearances with Arizona, at which point the Diamondbacks released him. That was it.

Radke walked away from the mound because his shoulder was frayed beyond endurance. Mulholland pitched as long as anybody would have him. I applaud both.

The $100 million payroll

2011-12-30T03:19:00.000-06:00

There appears to be a consensus in Twins-blogland: The Jason Marquis signing signals that the 2012 payroll is indeed "hard-capped" to $100 million, and that's a betrayal of the fans and a detriment to the team.

I have two basic quarrels with this conclusion:

1) I see no reason to doubt that, for the right player at the right terms, the Twins would (have) again expanded their budget plan. The Twins continued to publicly hold the door open for Michael Cuddyer and/or Jason Kubel even after signing Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham. As matters transpired, both hitters got better offers than the Twins thought they were worth, but had either said yes, I'm sure Terry Ryan would have made "the three-block walk" to get the OK from Jim Pohlad.

2) The pitching market is hideous for buyers. Four years and $56 million for Mark Buhrele? Five years, $77.5 million for C.J. Wilson? No thank you, and I don't care what the budget is.

Terry Ryan appears to be hewing
to a $100 million player payroll for
2012. This is not a disaster.

The notion that the Twins would be well served to throw a big package at Edwin Jackson is laughable. This is a guy who has gone through six organizations in nine major league seasons. Teams get him and literally can't wait to dump him on somebody else. And if/when Jackson gets a four-year, $40 million deal, he won't be so readily dumpable. It was a lot easier for a team to trade for him when he cost a couple million or so than it will be when he's pulling in five times as much and carries obligations beyond the current season.

I dislike pieces opining that somebody else ought to spend more -- a team, the fans, whoever. It's easy to spend somebody's else's coin. And most of us writer types aren't particularly adept with finances anyway (which has something to do with why we're writers).

Look, just because the Twins spent $117 million or so in 2011 (and exceeded their budget in the process) does not obligate them, morally or otherwise, to do the same in 2012. This is not a perfect analogy, but I'll use it anyway: My wife and I spent some extra money last March and went to spring training. That doesn't mean we have to do it again next March.

And we enjoyed what we got for the extra expense a lot more than the Twins enjoyed what they got for theirs.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Capps-Ramos trade

2011-12-29T03:44:00.000-06:00

Wilson Ramos hit
16 home runs in 2011
for the Washington
Nationals, then
survived a kidnapping
in his native
Venezuela.

When: July 29, 2010
What: The Twins acquired relief pitcher Matt Capps from Washington for catcher Wilson Ramos and left-handed pitcher Joe Testa
Value: Capps had 13 total win shares in 2010 and 1.1 WAR during his time with the Twins that season. He was retained for 2011 and earned 7 win shares and 0.8 WAR. Ramos had 3 total win shares in 2010 and 13 more last season; he has had 2.7 WAR with Washington. Testa has not reached the majors and pitched in high A ball in 2011 at age 25.
Twins motivation: Bullpen help for the pennant push; also an eye to the 2011 bullpen.

This trade soured badly on the Twins in 2011. Capps, relied on to anchor a reconstructed bullpen, had a poor season. Ramos took over the Nationals catching job and finished fourth in the National League rookie of the year voting. Ramos' absence from the Twins system was easily noted with Joe Mauer spending much of the season on the shelf. Even the unheralded Testa put up a sub-2.00 ERA in the minors.

All of this might be forgiven had Capps played a major role in a World Series trip in 2010. But the Twins got swept out in the first round, and the closer never had a lead to protect.

The trade, to state the obvious, has not worked for the Twins. What happened?

A big part of the trade's failure may be in how the Twins (and others) viewed Ramos.

He was at the time generally considered one of Minnesota's top prospects: Major-league ready (or nearly so) at a premium position. He had some drawbacks as well. He had a history in the minors of injury. He was hitting a mere .241 in Triple A at the time of the trade. And in a brief stint with the big league team during a Mauer injury, he followed an initial flurry of base hits with a series of easy outs on breaking balls.

There had been debate (with this corner of the Internet having its say) on whether Ramos was more valuable to the Twins as a long-term backup to Joe Mauer (who was, at the time of the trade, signed for another eight seasons) or as trade bait. Ron Gardenhire during spring training briefly made a public argument for keeping Ramos on the 25-man roster. Ramos was instead optioned to Triple A, which prevented his service time clock from starting and theoretically enhanced his trade appeal.

Going into 2011, Baseball America had dropped Ramos on its prospect list from No. 58 (entering 2010) to No. 96, an indication that the consensus opinion on him around the game had soured somewhat.

The Twins, in short, sold Ramos at the low point of his value.

Matt Capps is 6-7 with 31 saves
in his time with the Twins.

As for why the Twins traded for a closer: Joe Nathan had blown out his elbow early in spring training. Jon Rauch had filled in at least adequately in the ninth-inning role (21 saves, four blown saves) but was showing signs of deterioration. (In nine appearances in the month of July, he had just one hitless outing, and his ERA had risen from 2.40 to 3.05.) The Twins felt a need to shore up the bullpen, and once Capps came on board, Rauch seldom appeared in a game situation (two holds, one of them a one-out appearance, and a win in an extra-inning game).

The Twins also knew that Rauch, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were all destined for free agency and were unlikely to return in 2011. Capps would not be free-agent eligible until after 2011; they were trading for him not only for immediate use, but as a bullpen cornerstone in the coming season.

It is safe to say that the trade was not viewed well by Twins-devoted bloggers at the time, and even less so now. But the Twins are doubling down on this deal. They clearly like Capps as a pitcher -- not only enough to give up Ramos for him, but enough to bring him back for 2012 after 2011 didn't go well on any level.

This series is called "Dissecting the Bill Smith era", but one of my basic precepts is that Smith did not make these moves in a vacuum. I know of no reason to believe that he substituted his judgment over those of more established talent evaluators, particularly Terry Ryan and Mike Radcliffe.

If the Twins overvalued Capps and undervalued Ramos -- and off 2011, that appears to be the case -- it was an organizational failure.

Jack Morris, the DH rule and the Hall of Fame

2011-12-28T03:37:00.000-06:00

Jack Morris's 1987 card.
He went 18-11
for the Tigers that year.
He also led the
American League
in wild pitches.

The veteran baseball writers who make up the Hall of Fame electorate are wrapping up their ballots for the Hall's Class of 2012.

This election, as I said here almost a year ago, probably represents Jack Morris' last best shot at the Hall via the front door. It's the one year in which Black Jack is certainly the best starting pitcher on the ballot; there's always been Bert Blyleven on the ballot in his previous years, and next year there'll be Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling, and for the 2014 class there'll be Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine.

I regard Morris as a dubious candidate. A good pitcher, absolutely, just not rising to HoF status. The ERA is a bit too high, and the claim made by his supporters that he "pitched to the score" just doesn't hold water when examined closely. Almost every post-1901 pitcher with 250 or more career wins is in, but (a) that's drawing a line just after Morris and (b) by that standard, Jim Kaat and Tommy John have better claims that remain ignored (neither is on the writers' ballot).

But here's something that occurred to me last week as I was setting the blog on autopilot for the holiday weekend:

The American League established the DH rule in 1973. That's almost 40 years ago. I will now list the starting pitchers to debut since then who have made the Hall of Fame:

(blank)

That's right. Zero.

Now, as a practical matter, we're basically saying there were no HoF starters to debut between 1973 and the mid-80s, when guys like Maddux and Clemens started showing up. Call it a 12-year drought if you will. That's still historically large.

The institution of the DH was the single biggest help-the-hitters rule change since the abolition of the spitball (1921). In the 10 years that followed the spitball ban, future Hall of Fame starters Lefty Grove, Carl Hubbell, Red Ruffing, Ted Lyons and Lefty Gomez debuted. Make it 15 years, and we pick up Dizzy Dean and Bob Feller. There's nothing like that wave of talent in the wake of the DH rule.


Dave Stieb — 176-134 with a 3.44 ERA for his career — had his last good season at age 32. He was one-and-done on the writers ballot.

There were plenty of quality pitchers beside Morris (who debuted in 1977) to enter the majors in 1973-1985. Fernando Valenzuela and Mark Fidrych. Ron Guidry and Doc Gooden. Frank Tanana and Don Gullett. Mike Flanagan and Dennis Martinez. Dave Stieb and Bret Saberhagen and Teddy Higuera and Frank Viola and Orel Hershiser and Rick Rueschel ...

They all fell short. Most had full careers, but some got hurt, some blunted their lives on chemical abuse, some blunted their talents on overuse. None of them got elected to the Hall; none drew enough support to stay on the writers' ballot.

The coming wave of big-number pitchers from the Selig Era (aka the Steroid Era) -- Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Schilling, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Mike Mussina, John Smoltz -- differ from the Morris era group thusly:

They worked in five-man rotations;
Had pitch counts for much of their careers;
Spent much, if not all, of their careers, in the non-DH league.

Look at the 14 guys I listed in the 1973-85 debut category. Nine of the 14 established themselves in the DH league. Look at the second list. Mussina spent his entire career in the AL. Clemens (who debuted in 1984) spent most of his in the AL. Johnson established himself in the AL (but had his best years in the NL). But Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Martinez and Schilling all established themselves as starters in the National League, with Maddux and Glavine spending their entire careers in the senior circuit.

I'm not convinced, even after going through that, that Jack Morris is/was the best Hall of Fame choice from that period. Guidry or Rueschel might be better picks. But Morris appears to be the consensus pick as the best career among starters to debut in the immediate DH era, a period of time that took a tremendous toll on young starters. That counts for something.

The merits of a Revere-Plouffe platoon

2011-12-27T02:30:00.000-06:00

Ben Revere's defensive range
is a definite plus; his
throwing arm is not.

I have found frequent cause in recent days to mention Ron Gardenhire's reluctance to utilize platoons.

Jason Kubel. Jacque Jones. Michael Cuddyer. Mike Redmond. These were all players with pronounced platoon differentials, yet for a variety of reasons Gardenhire didn't platoon them. (Redmond, of course, was a backup, but Gardenhire over the years bypassed plenty of opportunities to give Joe Mauer his rest day against a left-hander and instead used Redmond the following day against a rightie.)

Gardenhire has used a few short-term platoons -- about a half-season in 2008 with Brian Buscher and Brendan Harris at third base, September 2009 with Harris and Jose Morales at DH -- but he prefers to identify a regular at each position and use the bench as fill-ins.

Left field in 2012, however, appears to offer good reason for a time-share arrangement. Let's break it down:

Ben Revere is generally viewed as the regular-in-waiting in left. (He's also the backup center fielder to Denard Span.) He is a player with one great tool (speed afoot) and two obvious weaknesses (power and throwing arm).

Trevor Plouffe spent 2011 convincing the Twins that he's not a major-league caliber middle infielder. They do see hope for his hitting, particularly in the power department.Terry Ryan has repeatedly said this offseason that Plouffe will be an outfielder going forward, but he has little experience, majors or minors, in the outer garden.

Trevor Plouffe has played
his way out of the Twins'
infield plans.

This is a classic platoon situation: Two marginal talents whose strengths and weaknesses match up. Plouffe has power; Revere does not. Revere covers ground like few others in the outfield; Plouffe is a novice. Revere can't throw; Plouffe has a strong arm. Revere hits left, Plouffe hits right.

Plouffe hit .212 against righties in 2011, .308 against lefties. Revere showed no real platoon differential last season, but in both cases the playing time is small enough that the stats are merely indicative, not conclusive. Over time, we can expect both players to show a platoon differential.

The underlying point: This is not a case where a platoon is likely to retard the growth of a potential star. This is a case of trying to maximize the production from two flawed talents.

And it's not a case that fits into Gardenhire's established managerial strengths or style.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Hardy-Gomez trade

2011-12-26T01:42:00.000-06:00

Carlos Gomez: Eye-popping range, head-shaking decisions.

When: Nov. 6, 2009
What: The Twins acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy from Milwaukee in exchange for center fielder Carlos Gomez.
Value: Hardy had 10 win shares and 1.3 WAR in 2010, his sole season in Minnesota. Gomez, still with the Brewers, has had 11 win shares and 1.3 WAR in 2010-11.
Twins motivation: Fill the shortstop hole and unload Gomez.

This trade came quickly, just days after the Giants wrapped up their World Series title.

J.J. Hardy: One and
done with the Twins.

Gomez had clearly fallen out of favor with the Twins. The most obvious piece of evidence for that: In September 2009, with Justin Morneau out of the lineup with a stress fracture in his back, Ron Gardenhire could have put Denard Span in right and Gomez in center. Instead, he filled the right field gap opened by the shift of Michael Cuddyer to first base with Jason Kubel and the DH spot vacated by Kubel with a platoon of Brendan Harris and Jose Morales.This was a far weaker defensive alignment, and the Harris/Morales platoon wasn't much at the plate either.

ABG -- Anybody But Gomez.

Hardy had also fallen out of favor with the Brewers, The shortstop had bopped 26 homers in '07 and 24 more in '08, but never got his bat going in '09. He got optioned back to Triple A in favor of prospect Alcedes Escobar (now with Kansas City) late in the season in a transparent move to halt his service time calendar and make him more attractive trade bait.

So the two teams traded their disappointments in hopes of filling lineup gaps.

Gomez, who lost the center field job in Minnesota after being given it, didn't hang on to the center field job in Milwaukee either. Hardy hurt his hand early in the season, started just 95 games at short and slugged under .400 for the season -- nothing that increased his value. The Twins traded him after the 2010 season; we'll deal with that trade later.

I daresay both teams were dissatisfied with the results of this trade.

The Sunday Funnies

2011-12-25T01:08:00.000-06:00

Merry Christmas. And Happy Birthday to Rickey Henderson, too.

In Rickey's honor:

Henderson is in spring training with the San Diego Padres late in his career, and he's getting on the bus for their first road game of the exhibition season.

Uncertain of the protocol on his new team, and not wanting to disrupt any veteran's accustomed preferences, he ask, "Where do I sit?"

Fellow veteran outfielder Steve Finley replies: "Sit anywhere you want, Rickey, you've got tenure."

Henderson gives Finley a puzzled look. "Tenure? Rickey got 16, 17 year."

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The other 2009 trades

2011-12-24T03:58:00.000-06:00

Craig Breslow: Not a wise discard by the Twins

When: Feb. 18, 2009
What: Waived Bobby Korecky
Value: He has pitched six major league innings since then, allowing nine runs.
Motivation: Opening a roster spot for free agent Luis Ayala

Not much to see here. Arizona claimed Korecky, but he washed out with them. He spent the 2010 season in independent ball, then pitched in the Toronto system last season.

When: April 17, 2009
What: Claimed Juan Morillo on waivers from Colorado
Value: Pitched all of two innings for the Twins, allowing five runs.
Motivation: He threw hard.

Juan Morillo threw a legitimate upper 90s fastball. Colorado couldn't tame it; neither could the Twins. He was released to a Japanese team in November 2009.

When: May 20, 2009
What: Sold Craig Breslow to Oakland on waivers
Value: Breslow has had 17 win shares in 2009-11, 3.2 WAR with Oakland
Motivation: Over-reaction to 14 innings.

As I noted in the 2008 acquistion of Breslow, Ron Gardenhire was reluctant to use the lefty in game situations. With the departure via free agency of Denys Reyes, Breslow entered 2009 as the primary lefty in the pen. He struggled early, and the Twins waived him, intending (so they've since said) to outright him to Rochester to get straightened out.

Instead, Oakland claimed him. He has made 202 appearances with the A's since, compiling an ERA of 3.14. The 2011 season was easily his least effective, however. Still, on the whole, the Twins would have been better off keeping him around. (Oakland traded him to Arizona this winter.)

Twins sign Jason Marquis

2011-12-23T00:30:00.000-06:00

Jason Marquis has a career record of 104-98.

It's a one-year, $3 million contract for a veteran back-of-the-rotation starter.

On the face of it, this signing doesn't thrill me. Jason Marquis is 33, he has a career ERA of 4.55, he has a low strikeout rate and, despite Terry Ryan's description of him as throwing the ball over the plate, his walk rate is mediocre.

As a matter of basic principle, I would rather see the Twins open the fifth spot to competition from pitchers who haven't established themselves, not hand it to somebody who has established himself as a mediocrity.

The Twins will now pay Marquis some $300,000 more than Colorado will pay Kevin Slowey. I'd rather have Slowey.

And yet, I see why the Twins wanted to add a veteran starter. They came into Thursday with a projected rotation of Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn and an unknown. Nobody really knows what to expect from Liriano, Baker has yet to survive a full season in the rotation, and Blackburn has had elbow surgeries each of the past two winters. It's one thing to have one rotation opening for the likes of Anthony Swarzak, Scott Diamond, Matt Maloney, Terry Doyle and Liam Hendricks to fight over; it's another thing to have multiple holes to fill.

Marquis is the pitcher the Twins appear to think Blackburn is: a sinkerballer who eats up innings. (Marquis, like Blackburn, has not finished the past two seasons; he had elbow surgery after 2010, and suffered a broken fibula off a line drive last August). Marquis actually does get a lot of ground balls. I'm not sure the Twins infield is going to be much help to such a pitcher.

The importation of Marquis is yet another clear indication that Brian Duensing is ticketed for the bullpen. So was the non-tender of Jose Mijares. So was the claiming of Maloney, a left-handed starter who has done quite well in Triple A but never got a clean shot with Cincinnati.

The more I look at Maloney's minor league stats -- and at his walk and strikeout rates in the majors -- I more I like what I see. The problem for him is that the Twins are now paying five veteran starters at least $3 million. Somebody's going to have to get hurt for him to get a shot.

A difference of opinion on Jose Mijares

2011-12-22T01:01:00.001-06:00

Jose Mjares: Going
to Kansas City

About a week ago, the Twins, who have had the sometimes dubious pleasures of having Jose Mijares on their roster for the past three-plus seasons, non-tendered the arbitration-eligible lefty specialist rather than pay him an estimated $750,000 to return in 2012.

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Royals, having scouted Mijares hard in the Venezuelan winter league, signed the portly portsider to a $925,000 contract.

Mijares figures to be the Royals' No. 2 lefty, behind Tim Collins, a diminutive fireballer who has some command issues. In Minnesota, he appeared to be behind not only Glen Perkins but also Brian Duensing, who appears almost certain to shift from the starting rotation to relief work.

Mijares was a very effective LOOGY -- Left-handed One Out GuY -- in 2009 and 2010, much less so in 2011. The Twins hope to have a very left-handed lineup again in 2012 (that would suggest that Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Denard Span are all healthy). Considering how often the Twins and Royals play, Mijares will get plenty of opportunity to test his LOOGY skills against his old mates.

Say, do you suppose Mauer will be looking for his slider?

Arranging the Twins outfield

2011-12-21T01:20:00.000-06:00

Delmon Young: Part of one rebuilt Twins outfield,
now a piece to be replaced in a new restructuring.

Gone from the Twins of the past few seasons: Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Delmon Young. These men were mainstays of the Minnesota outfield since 2008. Now the Twins are remaking their outfield around Denard Span (as they did after the 2007 season with Cuddyer as the holdover).

As matters stand, these players figure to play in the Twins outfield in 2012. I list them in the order of likely outfield playing time. Those above the line are likely to be on the Opening Day roster; those under are likely to at least begin 2012 in the minors.

Denard Span, cf
Josh Willingham, rf/lf/dh
Ben Revere, lf/cf
Trevor Plouffe, lf/rf
Ryan Doumit, c/rf/dh/lb
---
Rene Tosoni, rf/lf
Joe Benson, rf/lf/cf
all other outfielders in the system

Willingham voiced some concern after signing with the Twins about playing right, where he has minimal experience. Terry Ryan believes Willingham has sufficient arm for the position, and he probably does, as he is a converted catcher. Certainly we can expect Willingham to get plenty of right field time in Florida.

A number of bloggers -- notably the redoubtable Aaron Gleeman -- have penciled Doumit in as the regular designated hitter. I suspect that if the Twins wind up with a regular DH it will be Justin Morneau (for health reasons). The more Morneau is the DH, the more first base somebody else has to play. That somebody else is probably either Doumit or Joe Mauer, and I'm quite sure the Twins (and Mauer) would prefer to keep Mauer behind the plate. And the more Doumit is the DH, the less valuable his defensive flexibility is -- not that he's actually proficient at any of the positions he plays. My guess is that we'll see more of Doumit at first base than anybody expects -- at least 50 games.

A blog commenter suggested last week that the Twins put Revere in center with Span in right and Willingham in left. That arrangement makes some sense, but Ron Gardenhire is very unlikely to irritate Span by moving him out of center.

Gardy believes in locking his regulars into place. It's one thing if one of his starters volunteers to shift positions, as Michael Cuddyer and Nick Punto were known to do; but absent that, he would rather keep his regulars in their comfort zone. Span is a good center fielder; he may not have Revere's range, but he's not giving up a lot to Revere, and Span throws better. Span made it known last summer that he prefers to play center; I don't see Gardenhire irritating him by making him give way to Revere.

Fare-thee-well, Jason Kubel

2011-12-20T00:02:00.001-06:00

Jason Kubel will probably find it easier to hit
long balls in Arizona than in Minnesota.

It's easy to imagine alternative Twins careers for Jason Kubel, who will now pursue an alternative career with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

What if ...

He hadn't wrecked his knee in an Arizona Fall League collision with a second baseman?
He had played for a manager who believed in platooning?
Target Field weren't such a difficult home run park from alley to alley?

The key moment in Kubel's career came in his first game in the AFL in 2004. He was playing right field. He came in on a fly ball, second baseman Ryan Raburn (Detroit Tigers) came out, they collided, and Kubel's left knee was essentially destroyed.

He missed all of 2005, played in 2006 and hurt the right knee because the left knee wasn't completely sound.

Absent the injury, Kubel might well have pushed Jacque Jones off the roster during the 2004-05 offseason. Instead, he didn't get a clean chance to establish himself until 2007 -- by which time he was 25. Speed was never a big tool for him. The injury made his speed a liability and the biggest reason he has spent much of his career as a designated hitter.

I don't know if the injury could have had any effect on his platoon differential, but he certainly has displayed a significant one. For his career, Kubel is a .288/.342/.490 hitter against right-handers, .239/.313/.365 vs. lefties.

In the hands of a platoon-oriented manager like Earl Weaver or Gene Mauch, Kubel would have seen fewer southpaws, which wouldn't make his accumulative numbers any better but would certainly have improved his percentages. Ron Gardenhire is not a platooner, however.

Kubel had 906 plate appearances in the Metrodome, and hit .294/.346.495 under the Teflon sky. In his 448 plate appearances in Target Field, he hit .254/.321/.403. Big difference.

The park in Phoenix is a good hitter's park, so his numbers should look much better in 2012.

A quick comment

2011-12-19T19:33:00.001-06:00

I plan to post for Tuesday morning about Jason Kubel's time with the Twins and his departure, but first, a quick comment on something LaVelle Neal said in his blog today about the Twins offseason:

Kubel, Cuddyer and Joe Nathan are gone and the team hasn't come close to replacing them.

As the late, lamented Henry Morgan said in the guise of Col. Sherman T. Potter, "Horse hockey!"

At least in terms of the outfielders. The Twins have replaced Michael Cuddyer with Josh Willingham and Kubel with Ryan Doumit.

Willingham is a better hitter than Cuddyer, if a bit more limited defensively. The talents have slightly different shapes, but they are equivalent. Doumit and Kubel are very similar hitters: .271/.334/.442 career slash stats for Doumit, .271/.335/.359 for Kubel. Both are better hitters against right-handed pitchers. And while the Twins lost positional flexibility in the Willingham/Cuddyer exchange, they gained it in the Doumit/Kubel switchout.

True, the Twins haven't imported bullpen help. Yet. But Neal said "them," and he is just plain wrong.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Rauch trade

2011-12-19T02:39:00.001-06:00

Jon Rauch in 2009. He was Baseball
America's minor league player of the year
in 2000, when he was in the
Chicago White Sox organization.

When: Aug. 28, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Jon Rauch from Arizona for RHP Kevin Mulvey
Value: Rauch conributed 1.9 WAR for Minnesota in 2009-10. He had 9 win shares for the Twins in 210 and 7 total in 2009. Mulvey contributed just 26 innings to Arizona with a WAR of -0.3 and was designated for assignment in September. He may be a free agent. Rauch spent 2011 with Toronto and singed last week with the New York Mets as a free agent.
Twins motivation: Bullpen depth

As with Orlando Cabrera and Carl Pavano, Rauch was a late-season addition that worked. Mulvey, a piece of the Johan Santana deal, has not panned out as a prospect. Rauch went 5-1 with five holds down the stretch in 2009, then racked up 21 saves in about a half season as closer in 2010 when Joe Nathan blew out his elbow.

The Twins let him go as a free agent after 2010, and he spent 2011 with Toronto, where he had 11 saves (and five blown saves) with an ERA of 4.85.

It is, in retrospect, interesting how far Mulvey had fallen by the time of the trade and has continued to fall. When the Twins acquired him (just before spring training 2008), he was considered a nearly-ready middle-of-the-rotation prospect. A season-plus later, he was dealt even up for a middle reliever -- not something one does with a good starting prospect. And last summer, Mulvey was designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks. I don't know if he's still in their system or if he's a free agent.

The Sunday Funnies

2011-12-18T01:17:00.000-06:00

Josh Gibson, the great catcher and slugger of the Negro Leagues in the days of segregation, comes up in a game in Pittsburgh and crushes a ball. It goes so high that everybody loses sight of it. Nobody sees it come down. Eventually the umpire rules it a home run and the game continues.

Next day the same two teams, with the same umpire, are playing again, but this time in Philadelphia. Gibson comes up to bat again, and suddenly a ball comes whizzing out of the sky, and the center fielder runs over and makes the catch.

The ump turns to Gibson. "Yer out -- yesterday, in Pittsburgh."

Fare-thee-well, Michael Cuddyer

2011-12-17T00:11:00.010-06:00

Michael Cuddyer in his career: 141 homers, 140 double
plays grounded into, one shutout inning of pitching.

And so much for the "there's still room for Cuddyer" talk. One day after the Twins confirmed the signing of Josh Willingham, Michael Cuddyer reached agreement with Colorado -- reportedly three years, $31.5 million, which is $7.5 million more than the Twins were said to be offering.

Logically, I have no real doubt that the Twins are better off with this "exchange." Willingham and Cuddyer are roughly equivalent players -- both right-handed, both 33 by opening day. Cuddyer has more value as a defensive player, Willingham more value as a hitter. But Willingham will be paid almost $10 million less than Cuddyer over the next three years, and the Twins gain two high-round draft picks next summer. Logic says this is to the Twins advantage.

Emotionally is another matter. Cuddyer had, over the past 11 years, worked his way into the very fabric of the Twins persona. We Twins fans have watched him grow up as a major leaguer. That matters; fans of any team are more attached to the guys who start there and stay there for years than to the wandering mercenary types. Willingham will never match Cuddyer for popularity here. And Cuddyer will not be as vital to the fans in Denver as he was here.

For all Cuddyer accomplished on the field for the Twins over the years -- and he is in or near the franchise top 10 in a variety of career numbers -- the one thing that remains top of my mind is how he stepped forward after the 2007 season.

The Twins had lost Torii Hunter as a free agent. They had traded away Johan Santana. They had finished third in the AL Central with those two stars with a sub-.500 record. And when the team assembled in Fort Myers for spring training 2008, he distributed T-shirts bearing the message: "162+." One hundred sixty-two, of course, is the number of regular season games on the schedule. The plus meant the Twins were going to play beyond that number.

Which they did -- 163, to be precise. They didn't win the division title, but they came as close as you can without doing so. And it started with that spring training message -- we don't have Torii, we don't have Johan, and we're still good enough.

The Twins may miss Cuddyer on the field. They are likely to miss him off the field more.

More minor league signings

2011-12-16T06:34:00.000-06:00

Another batch of minor-league signing with spring training invites for the Twins on Thursday.

It's a rather uninspiring collection of failed prospects -- Steven Pence, J.R. Towles, Aaron Thompson. If any of the three appear in Minnesota this year, it's a bad sign. This is more about the Triple A team. The Twins want to keep their Rochester affiliation, and they can't keep losing 90-plus games there.

Towles is a catcher who bombed a few years ago when handed the regular job in Houston. He has hit in the minors but not in the majors. He and Rene Rivera are likely to be the catchers for Rochester, which figures to slow the advance of Chris Herrmann and Danny Lehmann. In Herrmann's case, that may not be a terrible thing, as he has less than a season in Double A.

Joe Christensen said the Twins have 24 non-roster invitees lined up for spring training. That sounds like a lot, but about nine of them will be catchers around mainly to the the other half of the bullpen sessions for more than two dozen pitchers.

Cuddyer AND Willingham? Really?

2011-12-16T00:09:00.000-06:00

Michael Cuddyer: Not out of the picture yet

This was going to be as much eulogy for the Twins career of Michael Cuddyer as rumination about the addition of Josh Willingham, but I'll give some credence to the notion that the Twins can fit Cuddyer into their budget and wait for the actual event.

Can the Twins actually fit Cuddyer into their estimated $100 million payroll? That depends on how rigid that figure is. My guess it's that it's a soft target, not a hard ceiling. the Strib's Joe Christensen projects the current roster as costing a bit less than $96 million. The $8 million salary the Twins have offered Cuddyer would push the total to about $104 million, which is still a reduction from 2010.

Re-signing Cuddyer would probably require ownership to sign off on raising the target. That might the be smaller problem; it would also probably preclude further pitching additions. But the free agent pitching market has been rather high-priced this winter, and the chances of adding someone significant for less than $5 million are slim.

So yes, it could happen. I'm not completely sold on the wisdom of it from the Twins standpoint. They have just made a three-year commitment to one 33-year-old corner outfielder; two of them seem excessive. The Twins have young outfielders working their way through the system, and having both Cuddyer and Willingham through 2014 would seem to block the likes of Joe Benson.

This is the constant balancing act general managers encounter. The future is better served if Benson has a clear route to the majors in a year or so. The present is better served with the veterans, as Benson is clearly not ready to contribute as a major league regular.

The Twins during Ryan's era tended to err on the side of the future. Even when they brought in a veteran, it was generally on an inexpensive one-year deal that didn't really block the kids as much as keep a roster spot warm for them.

That changed somewhat during the Bill Smith era, especially when Target Field increased revenues.

Beyond the question of whether it's wise for the Twins to peruse Cuddyer is the question of whether Cuddyer is genuinely interested or just playing a waiting game, hoping for better offers elsewhere. He's been sitting on the Twins offer for more than a week, after all.

Official: Willingham a Twin

2011-12-15T11:20:00.001-06:00

I'll write more later. As noted previously, this probably closes the door on Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.

While we were waiting ...

2011-12-15T06:33:00.000-06:00

The Twins continue at this writing to grind with painful slowness to a conclusion to their right field free agent drama.

For public consumption, as in the Associated Press story we're running in this morning's paper, Terry Ryan is not closing any doors on Michael Cuddyer. But if Josh Willingham's in town for his pre-signing physical (as reported by the Strib's Joe Christensen) the train has left the station and Cuddy's not on it. If Cuddyer calls Ryan today and says OK, I'll take last week's offer, is Ryan really going to pull the Willingham deal? I can't see it.

Which leaves the question of why Ryan's putting up the pretense that nothing's settled. Joe C. blogged last night that his sources have been particularly "cautious" about this signing, and he doesn't know why. My guess is that it's a sign of genuine respect for Cuddyer and a reluctance to cut the ties.

Meanwhile, the Twins on Wednesday did announce three minor league signings of guys who played some in the majors in 2011 and who figure to be minor-league depth.

P.J. Walters, right handed pitcher, has 51 major league innings without much success. His strikeout rates in the minors (and even in the majors) have been better than those of most starters in the Twins system, but his walk rates are a bit higher than the Twins prefer, and he really hasn't translated his ability to miss bats into low ERAs.

Rene Rivera: Back
for more.

Rene Rivera is a familiar figure; he spent much of 2010 with the Twins as one of the not-Mauer catchers. He will again be a non-roster invite to spring training and organizational depth at Rochester. There are three catchers on the 40 who rank ahead of him (Joe Mauer, Ryan Doumit and Drew Butera), and a couple coming up from behind (Chris Herrmann and Danny Lehmann), so Rivera's chances of picking up more service time aren't as good as last season.

Sean Burroughs is an odd signing, but then he's had an odd career/life. Son of an MVP, Little League World Series hero, Olympic gold medal winner, flameout prospect, derelict, reborn major leaguer ...

He's 31 now, and why he'd pick the Twins as his next stop is baffling. He hasn't the power to be a major league regular, at least not at third base, and he's no middle infielder defensively. If he's going to carve out a career in his 30s, it's going to be as a pinch-hit specialist. Those jobs are rare in this era of 12-man pitching staffs, and where they do exist, they're with National League teams.

Willingham or not?

2011-12-14T00:45:00.000-06:00

Michael Cuddyer has been a Swiss Army knife of
a defensive player over the years for Minnesota.

Last week, I thought the Twins' reported offer to Michael Cuddyer -- three years, $24 million -- would be sufficient to retain him.

Apparently not.

There were conflicting reports Tuesday night that the Twins had (or had not) reached agreement with Josh Willingham, like Cuddyer a right-handed hitting corner outfielder. The Twins typically don't acknowledge a signing until all details are complete, including a player physical, but this one was particularly touchy because it is generally believed that signing Willingham means not signing Cuddyer.

Willingham offers advantages and disadvantages to Cuddyer. He's a better hitter than Cuddyer (although his superiority has been masked over his career by the difficult environments he's had for home parks). He's less flexible defensively. And he's an unfamiliar personality in the clubhouse.

I'm wary of Willingham's lack of experience in right field or first base, the two positions at which Cuddyer was most often deployed. I don't know what Plan B at first base will be if Cuddyer's not on the roster, and Justin Morneau has needed a Plan B for significant parts of the past three seasons.

Willingham has spent much of his career in left field, and he's not particularly good there. He would figure to play right in Minnesota, and that sounds like an invitation to triples. But it has to be acknowledged that right field was something of a hidden defensive disaster for the Twins last season; neither Cuddyer nor fellow free agent Jason Kubel covered much ground. Their problems got less attention than those in the infield, but they were real nevertheless.

The Twins may not be making themselves much worse defensively by putting Willingham in right. But improvement ought to be the goal.

At the fringes of the roster

2011-12-13T01:09:00.001-06:00

The Twins opened Monday with a full 40-man roster.

They ended it with just 37 players.

Jim Hoey walked 13
and struck out 14
in 24.2 innings.

Gone, in chronological order:

Jim Hoey, right-handed reliever, claimed by Toronto on waivers;
Pedro Florimon, shortstop, outrighted to Rochester;
Jose Mijares, left-handed reliever, non-tendered.

Taking them one at a time:

Hoey, acquired from Baltimore last winter around this time in the J.J. Hardy trade, throws with great velocity but with little command and less movement. The result is too many walks, too many hits, not enough strikeouts and way too many runs. The Jays will now try to find a pitcher in that. Good luck to them.

Florimon was picked up from the Orioles a week ago when they tried to outright him to Triple A. The Twins were able to get him through waivers. My take on all this: He ranks in the Twins system below the four middle infielders who remain on the 40 (Jamey Carroll, Alexi Casilla, Luke Hughes and Tsuyoshi Nishioka), and probably below Brian Dozier (who isn't on the 40 because the Twins didn't need to protect him from the Rule V draft).

Jose Mijares walked 30
and struck out 30
in 49 innings.

Mijares was cut loose on the deadline to offer contracts to arbitration-eligible players. The portly LOOGY has had declining stats every season, and it's a pretty safe assumption that the Twins didn't want to give him the kind of raise the arbitration process would dictate -- especially since he didn't figure to be more than the third lefty in the 2012 bullpen. He and his agent now get to see what the free agent market says about him.

Ryan Braun's positive test

2011-12-12T00:19:00.000-06:00

Last month, Ryan Braun was hailed as the NL MVP.
Now, he's labeled a steroid user.

Ryan Braun, the 2011 National League MVP, was reported Saturday to have tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs.

The Milwaukee outfielder is said to have tested positive in a sample taken during the playoffs in October. He disputed the findings and the case is wending its way through the appeals process, which is likely to reach a conclusion next month — well before spring training, much less the season. There's no rush here. Or shouldn't be.

So why was the test result prematurely leaked, and by whom?

Likely not by Braun's camp; he gains nothing from the release of this information. His reputation has now been damaged; even if the appeals process rules in his favor, he's now been publicly connected with steroid use.

I'm guessing it came from somebody involved in the testing process who either (a) feared that baseball would cover up the finding or (b) realized that there is a legitimate chance that the finding is invalid and the case overturned and wanted to muddy the waters.

If (a), there was no need to leak the info now; waiting for the conclusion of the process wouldn't affect a single game. If indeed MLB would hide the positive result because it's an important player, expose them after they've done it. Doing it now is silly.

If (b), it speaks ill of the professionalism of the people involved in the testing process. And I think it's (b).

I'm in no position to judge the quality of the lab work or the validity of the conclusions. I do think that when there's a specific, quasi-legal process in place to handle a positive test, that process should be followed. It's already been violated here.

The Sunday Funnies

2011-12-11T00:51:00.000-06:00

Bob Cerv was an outfielder in the 1950s and early 1960s who spent much of his career as a reserve for the Yankees. He'd get traded to somebody else, then get traded back to the Yanks ...

One day Cerv is sitting alone on the dugout bench waiting for batting practice to begin. Casey Stengel, the Yankee manager, comes out and sits next to him, and the two men just sit there silently, looking out at the empty park.

Finally Stengel speaks:

"Nobody knows this, but one of us has been traded to Kansas City."

(Side note: Many of the stories I'm using in the Sunday Funnies are obvious tall tales and not to be believed. This is plausible -- it's easy to imagine Stengel telling a player he's been traded in such a manner -- but probably not specifically true. Robert Creamer, in his fine biography of Stengel, names Cerv as the player, but the only time the Yankees sent him to Kansas City was in October 1956, so he wasn't sitting in the dugout when told of the deal.)

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Pavano trade

2011-12-10T00:47:00.000-06:00

Carl Pavano in 2010, when
he went 17-11, 3.75 with a AL-best
seven complete games.

When: August 9, 2009
What: The Twins acquired RHP Carl Pavano from Cleveland in a waiver deal for RHP Yohan Pino
Value: Pavano provided 0.8 WAR after the trade in 2009. He has remained with the Twins on two free-agent contracts and provided 5.5 WAR in 2010 and 2011. He had 7 win shares total in 2009, 15 in 2010 and 9 in 2011. Pino has yet to reach the majors and ended 2011 in the Toronto organization.
Twins motivation: Reinforce the starting rotation.

The Twins were well behind the Detroit Tigers when they traded for Pavano, and their rotation -- particularly Glen Perkins and Francisco Liriano -- was spluttering. Pavano was trying to rebuild his reputation after an injury-riddled three seasons with the Yankees in which he got dubbed "American Idle" by the NYC tabs.

He has been a reliable starter with Minnesota, far more so than I expected -- 12 starts in less than two months in 2009, 32 starts in 2010, 33 starts in 2011. He has one more season to go on his second Twins contract, and I remain stubbornly wary of his declining strikeout rate.

But it has to be said that this trade worked very well for Minnesota. And for Pavano.

Albert Pujols, Michael Cuddyer and the desire for more

2011-12-09T08:34:00.000-06:00

John Mozeliak, general manager of the St. Louis Cardinals,
contemplates life without Albert Pujols. He might also have
the same expression thinking about the possibility of
paying the slugger $20 million-plus when he's in his 40s.

Before the Beatles told us I don't care too much for money/Money can't buy me love, they sang: Give me money/That's what I want.

Albert Pujols had the love and admiration of the St. Louis area, and tossed it aside this week for an extra $40 million or so. You and I probably would have done the same. Forty million? I don't know that I could spend that much in a lifetime, but I might like to try.

Pujols was, in truth, underpaid during his 11 seasons in a Cardinals uniform; while it may seem ridiculous to say that someone who made $104 million in 11 years was underpaid, he provided his team with well over $330 million in production. As wealthy as Pujols was before he signed his deal with Anaheim, he knew he has been underpaid in St. Louis, and it's a safe bet that bugged him. "Hometown discount"? He's given that already.

The Cardinals, to use a metaphor Bill James deployed in the late '80s ago, ate the heart of the watermelon that is Pujols' career. The Angels are paying for the rind.

It's been said that there's no such thing as a bad one-year contract. By the same token, there's no such thing as a good 10-year contract. The Angels jumped eagerly into the deep end of that pool this week, and nobody's standing by with a life preserver for them.

(It will be an interesting race to watch. Which deal goes bad for Anaheim first: $254 million/10 years for Pujols, or $77.5 million/five years for C.J. Wilson? My guess is the Wilson deal goes sour first.)

Then there's Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer is no Pujols, of course. The money is lower, the talent is lower, the stakes are lower. But again, Cuddyer has made more money playing baseball than you and I have made doing what we do (I say that assuming Glen Taylor isn't reading this), and there has grown, I believe, a genuine affection between player, community and franchise.

And yet there is a standoff now between player and team. He wants more; the team is reluctant to oblige. In my view, the three-year, $24 million offer reportedly made this week pushes the envelope of Cuddyer's value to the Twins. It's justifiable, but I don't think they should add years or money to it.

He wants more. We all want more. Money can't buy me love -- but it can rent it for a while.

Winter meetings, Day Four

2011-12-09T00:27:00.000-06:00

Terry Doyle has been a workhorse in the minors,
something the Twins probably found attractive.

While waiting on Michael Cuddyer some more -- and while no doubt standing agog at the silly money Anaheim spent on Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson -- the Twins made more fringe additions on Thursday. They now have filled their 40-man roster, and I would expect them to do something in the next few days to open at least one slot.

Rule V: The Twins took RHP Terry Doyle from the White Sox with the second pick. Doyle turned 26 last month, has good size, throws strikes, gets ground balls, doesn't have particularly good strikeout rates. He split last season between High A and Double A; between the regular season and the Arizona Fall League, he worked about 200 innings in 2011.

One of the ways I know I'm a baseball geek is that I get more excited about the Rule V draft than it deserves. These guys were left off the 40-man rosters, and there are generally good reasons for that. The Johan Santana and Jokim Soria picks are memorable because they're so rare. Still, here's more info on Doyle than you really need.

Here's John Sickles' take on Doyle coming into 2011:

Terry Doyle was a 37th round draft choice back in 2008 out of Boston College. He had a terrific season in the 2006 Cape Cod League and was projected as a possible second or third round pick at one point, but by '08 he had fallen apart, undone by mechanical problems that cost him six MPH on his fastball and left him lucky to be drafted at all. The White Sox drafted him anyway, rebuilt his mechanics and seem to have made him a decent prospect again. Doyle has average velocity but throws strikes and picks up grounders (1.56 GO/AO last year). He was old for the levels last year and we need to see more, but sometimes you can pick someone off the junk pile and find a gem.

Sickels on Doyle after Thursday's draft:

He had an excellent season in '11 ...He followed that up with a 1.98 ERA and a 22/5 K/BB in 27 innings in the Arizona Fall League. Age 26, Doyle has a mediocre fastball in the 87-90 range, but he mixes in his breaking ball and changeup very effectively and throws strikes. He could end up being a useful fifth starter, and Minnesota seems like a good fit for his skills.

Here's Baseball America on Doyle after the draft:

Doyle is a righthander with guile who lacks a plus pitch but knows how to set up hitters. He helped his chances of being picked with an excellent Arizona Fall League performance. He certainly understands the geometry of pitching, consistently getting outs with his command and a cut fastball. Doyle's 88-92 fastball did pick up as the season progressed and he touched 93-94 mph in Arizona. Doyle confuses hitters who don’t know him, as he often pitches backward, using breaking pitches to set up his fastball. He throws four pitches for strikes, including a biting slider and a high-70s changeup.

You probably know the rules: Rule V picks must remain on the 25-man active roster all season or be returned to the club from whom they were drafted. Last spring the Twins traded for the rights to Scott Diamond rather than return him to the Braves.

Finalizing the Slowey trade: The player to be named got named after the Rule V draft. He's RHP Daniel Turpen, a sidearming reliever who is joining his fourth organization. He had more walks than strikeouts in Double A last season, and certainly that isn't going to fly with the Twins. I fully expect this will be the only time he gets mentioned in this blog.

Winter meetings, Day Three

2011-12-08T01:18:00.000-06:00

Cuddyer cuddle: Michael Cuddyer and
his newborn daughters on Tuesday. Twins for a Twin?

Wednesday was a waiting day for the Twins.

Waiting for an answer from Michael Cuddyer. Waiting for today's Rule V draft.

There were a couple of things that did happen. The Matt Capps signing became official. Cuddyer and Jason Kubel declined arbitration, which keeps them free to sign elsewhere but also ensures that if either (or both) do, the Twins will get compensatory draft picks.

My expectation is that Cuddyer will re-sign with the Twins. He may be a bit preoccupied with his new daughters, and his agent may be trying to stir up some interest elsewhere, but I doubt there is a team as interested in him as Minnesota.

Which raises the question: Should the Twins be that interested in him?

Nobody knows Cuddyer as well as the Twins. He's got his flaws as a player, and he has his strengths -- and those strengths are almost exactly a match for what the Twins need. If he leaves, they will have almost no right-handed power, and they'll be shy an experienced alternative at first base if Justin Morneau has to become a DH.

That the Twins are hot to retain Cuddy not only speaks to the high regard in which they hold him, but to the belief that 2011 was a fluke season, that they have a genuine chance to win in 2012. If Terry Ryan were committed to rebuilding, he should have more interest in the draft choices than in a non-star who'll be 33 before Opening Day.

Winter meetings, Day Two

2011-12-07T00:29:00.000-06:00

Kevin Slowey: Going to Colorado.

It was pretty obvious last season that there was a massive disconnect between Kevin Slowey and the Twins, and it was widely expected that the pitcher would be moved along this winter.

And so it transpired on Tuesday: Slowey to Colorado for a player to be named.

This move also

clears Slowey's salary -- which would have been, through the arbitration process, somewhere between $2.5 million and $3 million;
opens a slot on the 40-man roster, allowing the Twins to finalize the Matt Capps signing and participate in the Rule V draft; and
clears a bit of the brush in the starting rotation field.

I wish Slowey the best, but I can't say I'm optimistic. Denver is not known as a place where pitchers go to revive their careers, and as a fly-ball pitcher Slowey may be a particularly poor fit for Coors Field.

---

Here's a Terry Ryan quote from the above link about the Slowey trade:

Twins general manager Terry Ryan — speaking with reporters during his media availability on Monday — spoke highly of Slowey, saying he expects him to bounce back next season.
“All you have to do is look at 2010,” Ryan said. “What did he do in 2010? How many games did he win? You can slice and dice those statistics any way you want, you’re looking for guys who win games. A starting pitcher’s job is probably, first and foremost, to win games. A guy wins 15, 20 games in the major leagues, you say, ‘Geez, I don’t know how he did it but he’s got ‘em.’ OK.”

You couldn't ask for a better traditionalist defense of the pitcher's win stat. And Ryan probably used that sales pitch on Colorado and others as he shopped Slowey around.

Of course, Slowey was the losing pitcher in all eight of his 2011 starts, and the Twins lost in all of his relief appearances as well.

---

Michael Cuddyer's wife gave birth to twin girls Tuesday morning. I don't know how rapidly Daddy Cuddy will decide on his next employer, but the Twins clearly would prefer it be sooner than later. The Twins are reported to have offered him a three-year deal for about $24 million. I would expect him to take it.

---

Matt Capps passed his physical, so those hoping that signing falls through will be disappointed.

Winter meetings, Day One

2011-12-06T00:52:00.002-06:00

The Twins reportedly lined up on Monday the return of Matt Capps, which was their big news from the first day of the winter meetings.

The initial Internet response to the well-telegraphed signing is predictably negative.

I'm not enthused, but I'm hardly outraged by the move either. As I've said before, my concern is that the bullpen be deep enough that Ron Gardenhire doesn't wreck his few good arms through overwork. Capps alone doesn't do that, but his presence does deepen the bullpen.

One of the common threads to the objections raised by my blogging brethren — which I shared in my initial post — is that the Twins are bypassing a compensatory draft pick. Terry Ryan's response to that factor, from the Strib story:

Ryan said compensation picks don't factor much into the Twins' decisions on players. "We'll take it," Ryan said, "but we'd rather have the player."

I don't believe for a moment that the Twins don't take the value of compensation picks into serious consideration. Their historic reluctance to give up first round picks to sign Type A free agents is evidence of that.

But I wonder if they are uncertain today of the real value of those picks under the new labor agreement and the formalized, enforceable restrictions on spending. I haven't seen any explanation of how the spending ceilings are to be set, but if the ceilings are too low, it may be difficult to get high school prospects to sign— which will push teams to overdraft collegians and thin out the quality choices by the time the sandwich picks come up.

If that's a realistic possibility, then Ryan has a good point about preferring the player to the pick. Draft picks are hardly a sure thing.

Pedro Florimon hit .267/.344/.367
at Double A Bowie in 2011.

---

In a lower profile move, the Twins claimed shortstop Pedro Florimon on waivers from Baltimore.

I don't understand the Florimon pickup. That doesn't make it bad. It just means that it's not transparent enough for me to understand.

Florimon is a switch-hitter, turns 25 on Saturday, and got an eight at-bat cuppa in September. He is said to be fast (although his minor-league stolen base stats don't impress) and struggle with breaking balls. He's been bouncing around between A and AA ball in the Baltimore system for a while, and 2011 was pretty clearly his best season at the plate.

My guess is that he's Triple A fodder rather than a threat to make the 25-man roster. But the Twins saw fit to fill one of their 40-man roster spots with him. I don't know what they have in mind. I doubt he's better than Brian Dozier.

---

Ron Santo didn't live
long enough to see his
election to the Hall.

As of now, the Florimon pickup gives the Twins 39 players on the 40-man roster. If/when the Capps signing becomes official, the roster will be full, and if the Twins intend to do something in the Rule V draft Thursday — they have the second pick — they'll have to clear a spot. They've picked up so many marginal players on waivers since the last week or so of the regular season (Esmerling Vazquez, Matt Maloney, Jeff Gray, Florimon) that I wouldn't think it that difficult to do.

---

Ron Santo made the Hall of Fame, which is OK by me. Jim Kaat came one vote shy of getting in; that's also OK. Tony Oliva got eight votes, four votes short of what he needed. Unless the Hall changes the Veterans Committee system (again), Oliva and Kaat will be eligible for consideration again in 2014.

---

Rumor mill (and my reactions):

LaVelle Neal said Monday that there's a growing expectation that Michael Cuddyer will re-sign with the Twins (makes sense to me).
Ken Rosenthal said the Twins are one of four teams who have made an offer to Mark Buehrle (someone else will actually sign him).
Rhett Bollinger (MLB.com) said the Twins have a tentative meeting on Thursday with Josh Willingham's agent, apparently as a Plan B on Cuddyer (Cuddyer makes a lot more sense for the Twins for a variety of reasons).
ESPN Deportes says the Twins have "expressed interest" in Carlos Guillen (as if they need more guys who can't stay off the DL).

The return of Matt Capps

2011-12-05T19:31:00.000-06:00

Matt Capps: Back for
another season, at least.

Let the complaining begin: The word all over the Internet Monday evening was that the Twins and Matt Capps had reached a contract agreement, supposedly one year plus an option. No official announcement; that probably will come after Capps passes a physical.

I'll let this post stand as my opinion on bringing Capps back. I think he'll bounce back in 2012 -- at least if Ron Gardenhire can choke back the impulse to use him for multiple innings on consecutive days, which is where I suspect Capps' forearm tendinitis originated.

The only real issue here (assuming the price was right, and the Twins certainly wouldn't have done the deal if the price wasn't in their range) is that they're losing out on a compensatory draft pick, and as I understand the new labor agreement, that pick isn't going to be there if he leaves as a free agent after 2012 or 2013.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Cabrera trade

2011-12-05T03:54:00.003-06:00

Since playing for the Twins,
Orlando Cabrera has been with
Cincinnati, Cleveland and
San Francisco. He is currently
a free agent.

When: July 31, 2009
What: The Twins acquired SS Orlando Cabrera from Oakland for minor league SS Tyler Ladendorf
Values: Ladendorf has yet to play in the majors. Cabrera had 0.2 WAR in his two months with Minnesota, 14 total win shares for the season (my resource for the win shares doesn't split them between the two teams).
Twins motivation: Stabilizing the infield for the stretch run.

The Twins made no significant trades in the 2008-09 offseason. The 2008 season had ended just shy of a divisional title (they lost a tie-breaking Game 163 1-0 to the White Sox), but it also ended with the organization confident that the young starting rotation of the second half (alphabetically Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Franscisco Liriano, Glen Perkins and Kevin Slowey) was good for years to come and confident that Alexi Casilla had nailed down second base.

So they brought in Joe Crede as a free agent to play third. LaVelle Neal wrote going into spring training that the infield of Justin Morneau (1b), Casilla (2b), Crede (3b) and Nick Punto (ss) might be the best in Twins history.

September's infield was Michael Cuddyer (1b), Punto (2b), Matt Tolbert (3b) and Cabrera (ss). Morneau and Crede were out with back problems, Casilla got bounced for ineffectiveness, and Cabrera was brought in to play short.

The O-Cab didn't do much with the bat in August (.259/.283/.375), and he committed plenty of physical errors and showed limited range in the field throughout his Twins tenure. But he (like Punto and Tolbert) hit in September (.315/.338/.477), and he didn't make mental errors.

The Twins didn't bring Cabrera back as a free agent in 2010. He was a two-month rental, and he got by on defense in part because he was flanked by two other shortstops in Punto and Tolbert. It worked; the Twins caught the Tigers in the final weekend of the season and won Game 163, with Cabrera contributing a crucial home run.

Ladendorf was a second-round draft pick in 2008 who put up some impressive numbers in junior college ball. He remains in the Oakland farm system but has not hit, even though the A's affiliates play in pretty strong hitters' environments.

This mid-season rent-a-vet move worked, and it doesn't appear to have cost the Twins much at all.

The Sunday Funnies

2011-12-04T00:31:00.000-06:00

Hughie Jennings was the manager of some fine Detroit Tigers teams in the early 1900's. His lineups boasted probably the two best hitters in the American League in Ty Cobb and Sam Crawford, and the Tigers won three straight pennants (1907-09) but no World Series.

Jennings gets a letter one day from a small town in Michigan. The writer says he's a pitcher, a great pitcher, says he can strike Cobb out on three pitches, asks for a tryout and $1.80 in train fare to come to Detroit to prove his stuff. Jennings, being a manager, is always looking for another pitcher, so he sends the $1.80.

The guy warms up and Cobb steps up to the plate. Cobb hammers the first pitch from the stranger off the fence in right. He pulls the second over the right field wall. He clouts the third over the center-field fence.

Jennings has seen enough of this nonsense and trundles out to the mound. "Well," he says disgustedly to the stranger who has wasted his time, "what have you got to say for yourself?"

The wannabe pitcher looks in at the batter. "You know," he says, "I don't believe that's Ty Cobb up there."

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The other 2008 trades

2011-12-03T03:42:00.003-06:00

What: Craig Monroe, acquired from the Chicago Cubs in what Baseball Reference describes as a "conditional deal."
When: Nov. 13, 2007
Value: 3 win shares. -0.8 WAR before being released in August
Twins motivation: Outfield depth.

This was Bill Smith's first transaction as general manager, and it was flawed in two crucial aspects.

First, he apparently misunderstood the finances and didn't realize that by acquiring Monroe directly from the Cubs he couldn't offer Monroe as low a salary as he had intended. Second was what I call Craig Monroe Syndrome: Monroe had always hit the Twins well, and the Twins mistook that for an indication of his talent. They didn't comprehend that the rest of the league got him out.

At least he didn't cost the Twins anything. No "player to be named" was ever named.

R. A Dickey: Now a rotation
cornerstone with the Mets

What: Traded RHP R.A. Dickey to Seattle for C Jair Fernandez
When: 3-28-08
Value: Fernandez has not reached the majors; Dickey had 3 win shares and 0.4 WAR with Seattle before being released.
Motivation: minor league catching depth

A rather involved series of transactions here. The Twins had signed Dickey, who was in the process of converting himself into a knuckleballer, to a minor league deal just before the winter meetings. The Mariners then took Dickey in the Rule V draft. As opening day approached, Seattle traded Fernandez to the Twins for the rights to Dickey, which allowed the M's to send him to the minors.

Fernandez was a Class A catcher at the time; he has bounced around the Twins minor league system since, always as a backup. He became a minor league free agent last month.

Seattle released Dickey after the 2008 season; the Twins signed him again, and released him after 2009. He has since emerged as a reliable starter with the Mets. The Twins were a little too early on him.

What: Claimed INF Sergio Santos on waivers
When: 5-16-08
Value: None as a minor league infielder
Motivation: ?

Sergio Santos in 2008 was an infielder who couldn't hit but had a strong arm. The Twins picked him up apparently with the notion of converting him to pitching, but he was unwilling to make the switch, and the Twins cut him loose. The White Sox picked him up for 2009, convinced him late in the season to try pitching, and he ended 2011 as their closer.

As with Dickey, right idea at the wrong time.

What: Claimed LHP Craig Breslow on waivers
When: 5-29-08
Value: Six win shares, 1.1 WAR that season with Twins; 23 win shares, 4 WAR from 2008 to now.
Motivation: Bullpen depth

A good pickup by the Twins, negated to a degree by Ron Gardenhire's inexplicable unwillingness to let him pitch in game situations.

What: Sold RHP Livan Hernandez to Colorado in a waiver deal
When: 8-6-2008
Value: Three win shares total for season, -1.7 WAR for season.
Motivation: Making room in the starting rotation for Francisco Liriano.

The Twins signed the rubber-armed veteran to anchor their rotation in the wakes of the Garza and Santana trades. By midseason Liriano had started pitching well in the minors, and Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins had established themselves as more effective than Hernandez.

The Twins over the years have taken outside criticism for this kind of early-season veteran use. I think it's unfair. Signing a Hernandez, a Ramon Ortiz, a Sidney Ponson is only partly hoping for a surprise. It's also buying time for a younger pitcher to mature or rehab in the minors.

"Everyday Eddie"
Guardado ended his
career in spring
training 2010
with the Nationals.

What: Traded RHP Mark Hamberger to Texas for LHP Eddie Guardado
When: 8-25-08
Value: Hamberger made his major league debut in September 2011, earning one win share and no WAR. Guardado pitched seven mostly ineffective innings for the Twins.
Motivation: Bullpen help.

The Twins were chasing the White Sox; the bullpen was thin; Gardenhire, for some reason, wouldn't use Breslow; Guardado, despite a badly frayed shoulder, was having a good season with Texas.

The Twins gave up a Class A arm who hadn't even been drafted for the veteran. This one could begin to backfire big time, as Hamburger has pushed his way to the majors.

What: Sent RHP Brian Bass to Baltimore in a conditional deal
When: 9-5-08
Value: He has had 4 win shares and -0.5 WAR since the deal.
Motivation: Addition by subtraction.

As with the Monroe deal, no player to be named was ever named.

Tony-O, Kitty Kaat and the Hall of Fame

2011-12-02T03:37:00.000-06:00

One of the myriad happenings next week at the Winter Meeting will be the balloting by the current version of the Veterans Committee.

The Hall of Fame's grand poo-baas keep tinkering with the Veterans Committee, trying to achieve a system that

actually elects somebody
without succumbing to the cronyism that has periodically infected the VC.

It's probably a hopeless mission. The biggest problem here is that the most obvious candidates get swept in by the writers and never reach the Veterans Committee, which winds up trying to split the hairs between Jim Kaat and Tommy John. There are plenty of HoF inductees I consider mistakes; almost all of them came courtesy of the VC.

The panel next week will be picking from a specific, prescreened, list of players and executives from a specific era of the game. Chris Jaffe at the Hardball Times website predicts that Ron Santo will get in, and thinks it likely that at least one of Tony Oliva and Kaat will as well, although Jaffe is quick to concede that it's difficult to make a good prediction on the VC when the rules keep changing.

Santo, Oliva, Kaat, Gil Hodges --- these are the most likely choices. My sense of it is that there are several worse players at their positions already inducted, I wouldn't whine much if these four remain out, and I won't complain at all if any get in.

Well, Santo ... I'm about 95 percent sure he should be in. Third base is rather unrepresented in the Hall, and there are only about five or six third basemen in history with better credentials. (Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Wade Boggs, Eddie Mathews ... Bill James puts Santo ahead of Brooks Robinson, but it's clear that their contemporaries thought Brooks was much the better player.)

My only issue with putting Santo in the Hall is that the Cubs of his era have Billy Williams at the top of his game, they have Ferguson Jenkins at the top of his game, they have a fading but still useful Ernie Banks, they have solid regulars in Glenn Beckert, Don Kessinger, Randy Hundley, Jim Hickman, Johnny Callison, they have Ken Holtzman, Milt Pappas and Bill Hands backing Jenkins in the rotation, they have a HofF manager in Leo Durocher -- and what did they win? Nothing. Not even a divisional title. How many legit Hall of Famers can you assemble without winning anything?

The Twins of Oliva and Kaat's era are a bit of a disappointment too, but they have a pennant and a pair of divisional titles to show. They had the misfortune to be up against an historically great Baltimore Orioles assembly.

I wrote a column long ago about Oliva and Kaat and the Hall. They symbolize a dual approach to HoF voting on the part of the electorate. The writers like career length from hitters and really high peaks from pitchers. Oliva had an eight-year span in which he was about as good a hitter as you'd find. The writers felt that wasn't enough. Kaat had a great season and a lot of good ones and lasted a long time. The writers felt that wasn't enough.

Kaat's candidacy is hurt a bit by the fact that in his prime years there was only one Cy Young awarded for the two leagues, and when he won 25 games in 1966 Sandy Koufax got the award. They started giving out two Cy Youngs the very next season. Put a Cy Young on Kitty's resume, and I think the writers would have given his candidacy more play.

A rough draft of the position players

2011-12-01T03:44:00.004-06:00

It's still relatively early in the offseason, but the Winter Meetings are next week, and that's probably the high point for the hot stove league.

The Twins have made a fair number of roster changes, mainly focused on the position players. Let's see if we can compile an approximation of who'll be playing here come April from the players on hand:

Ryan Doumit is
one of two free
agents signed so
far by the Twins.

C: Joe Mauer
1B/DH: Justin Morneau
2B: Alexi Casilla
3B: Danny Valencia
SS: Jamey Carroll
LF: Ben Revere
CF: Denard Span
RF: Rene Tosoni
DH/1B: Ryan Doumit

Bench:
IF: Tsuyoshi Nishioka
IF: Luke Hughes
OF: Trevor Plouffe
C: Drew Butera

That's 13, which leaves 12 spots for pitchers. Now, let me emphasize again: This is based on players on hand. I expect more activity between now and April. But this array may help us see where Terry Ryan will try to go.

What most grabs my attention at the moment is the C/1B/RF/DH nexus:

It's entirely possible that Morneau's concussion history will make him a DH.
Both the Twins and Doumit have already downplayed the notion that he would see significant time at first base. Catcher, yes; DH, yes; right field, yes. First base, not so much.
If Morneau's a DH and Doumit isn't a first baseman, there's a significant hole in what is normally an important offensive position. Luke Hughes ain't the answer.
If Morneau can play first and Doumit spends most of his time as a designated hitter, I have right field as a Plouffe-Tosoni platoon, which also probably isn't optimal.
And, of course, all this assumes that Mauer is indeed going to catch 130 games.

The word from the metro writers is that the Twins still hold out hope that they can retain Michael Cuddyer, and certainly he would be a good fit in the right field-first base-designated hitter mix. The outside interest in Cuddyer doesn't seem as high as anticipated. But I still doubt that the Twins want to give him a raise, and I would think they'd be tempted by two compensatory draft picks to decline to put up a fight.

Terry Ryan and Co. face two questions here. First, are the Twins close enough to contending to justify keeping Cuddyer, or are they better off with the picks? Second, can Morneau play in the field?

They have no way of confidently answering Question No. 2 now. And that makes it difficult to answer Question No. 1.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Santana trade

2011-11-30T00:14:00.002-06:00

Johan Santana won two Cy Young awards
while with the Twins (2004 and 2006). He now
gets $25 million a year from the Mets and did
not pitch in 2011.

When: Feb. 2, 2008
What: LHS Johan Santana to the New York Mets for CF Carlos Gomez and RHPs Phil Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra.
Value: Santana has earned 49 win shares and 14.4 WAR since the trade. Gomez has 30 WS, 4.1 WAR; Humber 13 WS and 3.4 WAR; Mulvey 0 and -0.5. Guerra has not reached the majors.
Twins motivation: Avoiding Santana's walk year; secondary motivations, trimming payroll, adding an outfielder.

Underlying the decision to trade Johan Santana during the 2007-08 offseason was the minor circus that accompanied Torii Hunter during his 2007 walk year. It seemed to team management that every road trip brought the same story: Where will Hunter play next? And Hunter was only too willing to fuel the speculation.

Correctly or not, Ron Gardenhire and Co. felt that was a factor in the team's decline in 2007. When, in the immediate wake of that disappointing season, Santana indicated that he was not likely to re-sign with the Twins, the brass felt it best to trade him immediately.

The Twins say
Deolis Guerra was
effective after being
moved to the bullpen
last season in
Double A.

It's an arguable decision. The Twins could have kept Santana for 2008, offered him arbitration and pocketed a pair of draft picks when he left. On the other hand, the media circus that accompanied the winter meetings that offseason, when there was a fresh rumor every few hours, suggests that the issue of Santana's future would have dominated the 2008 season.

Just going off the results, however, hanging on to Santana for 2008 might have worked better for Minnesota. Gomez never fully earned Gardenhire's confidence and ultimately lost his starting spot in the outfield to Denard Span. Humber washed out with the Twins and then Kansas City before emerging last season as a respectable starter for the White Sox. Mulvey's career appears to have stalled. Only Guerra remains in the Twins system, and he looks less like a useful piece each year.

Theoretically, the four players the Twins got in the Santana trade were more than the equivalent of a (low) first round pick and a sandwich pic. It simply didn't turn out that way.

Gomez and Mulvey were more valuable to the Twins in terms of what they got in future trades than for what they did in Minnesota.

A Brian Duensing theory

2011-11-29T01:20:00.001-06:00

Brian Duensing has made 50 starts and 59 relief appearances
for the Twins during the past three seasons.

Brian Duensing's 2011 season was shipwrecked on right-handed hitters. Righties hit .330/.387/.560 against the southpaw; lefties hit .217/.242./.280.

That's taking the platoon advantage to extremes.

That massive platoon split has many thinking that Duensing would be better suited to bullpen work, and that was, at one point, the Twins' idea with him. But he fared well in the starting rotation in 2009 and 2010.

What went so horribly sour for him in 2011? My guess is that he lost his change-up.

The platoon advantage is rooted in pitch movement. A left-hander's breaking balls — curves and sliders — move in on a right-handed hitter, away from a left-handed hitter. (A right-hander's, obviously, move in the opposite direction.) These are pitches that leave the hand coming between the thumb and forefinger.

Change-ups — and in particular the circle change, a favorite of the Twins organization — generally move in the opposite direction. The circle change is thrown with the thumb and forefinger curled together and with the twist for the forearm so that the ball is coming out of the hand on the side of the little finger. This gives it a reverse curve, or screwball, effect. (Indeed, Warren Spahn's description of how he threw his famous screwball sounded much like the circle change.)

Many lefties with noted change-ups — such as Johan Santana and Tom Glavine — have a tendency for reverse platoon splits. Part of it, no doubt, is that teams tend to sit their marginal left-handed hitters against quality lefty starters, but part of it is that their change-ups move down and in to left-handed hitters, and that is, as a general rule, their butter zone. These pitchers try to get lefties out with fastballs and breaking balls, right-handers with fastballs and change-ups.

That Duesning is effective against lefties suggests that he has a good breaking ball; his struggles with righties, which was much worse in 2011 than in the previous season, suggest that his change-up was ineffective. Fix that, I think, and he could still be an useful member of the starting rotation — and that is much more valuable than a LOOGY.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Young-Garza trade

2011-11-28T01:26:00.000-06:00

Almost all of Delmon
Young's value with the
Twins came in 2010.

When: Nov. 28, 2007
What: The Twins sent RHP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett and RHP Eduardo Morlan to Tampa Bay for RF Delmon Young, INF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie.
Values: Garza has earned 44 win shares and 11.9 WAR (wins above replacement) since the trade; Bartlett 64 WS and 13.9 WAR; Morlan has yet to play in the majors. Young has earned 52 WS, 1.3 WAR; Harris 19 WS, -0.2 WAR; Pridie 4 WS, 0.3 WAR. The three players Tampa Bay received have earned 108 win shares and 25.8 wins above replacement since the trade; the three players the Twins got earned 75 WS, 1.4 WAR. None of the six remain with the same team.
Twins motivation: Plugging outfield holes.

When Bill Smith inherited the general manager's job in September 2007, he faced two large and obvious issues: The pending free agency of Torii Hunter and Johan Santana's walk year.

Connected to the Hunter issue was that the 2007 Twins had a gaping hole in left field. Since it was quite obvious that the Twins were not about to meet Hunter's price, Smith was looking at two vacancies in the 2008 outfield.

Young was an intriguing trade target -- young, strong, he had hit .288 and driven in 90-plus runs as a 21-year-old in 2007. He appeared fully capable of living up to his status as the No. 1 overall pick in 2003.

Garza was also a first-round draft pick with intriguing talent. The Twins had a surplus of young starting pitchers and a shortage of usable outfielders; Garza and Young were the obvious cornerstones of the trade.

Brendan Harris washed out as
a second baseman early in 2008
and spent his Twins tenure
shuffling between third base,
shortstop and the bench.

But Young was not only a former first pick but somewhat more accomplished in the majors already. The Rays needed something more -- and that something more turned the trade in their favor.

I have always believed, reading between the lines, that Ron Gardenhire was never sold on Bartlett as his shortstop. He was reluctant to play Bartlett and only installed him in the lineup in 2006 when then-GM Terry Ryan gave him no choice by dealing away veteran Juan Castro. In 2007, Bartlett committed a string of costly early-inning errors down the stretch that helped bury the Twins' final chances of getting back into the race.

It was the exchange of shortstops -- Bartlett for Harris -- that made this a plus trade for Tampa Bay. Garza for Young is even enough to justify given the needs of the Twins at the time; Pridie and Morlan are essentially irrelevant. But Harris' defensive deficiencies -- which were evident in the defensive metrics at the time -- kept him from becoming a regular with the Twins. And the Twins haven't had a 100-game shortstop season since dumping Bartlett.

Neither Young nor Garza have so far truly lived up to expectations. Both were traded within the past year, and there are reports that the Cubs are shopping Garza around.

The Sunday Funnies

2011-11-27T01:17:00.002-06:00

Branch Rickey is known today for inventing the farm system, for his role in breaking the color barrier, for being a driving force behind expansion.

In his day, he was also known as a difficult man for players to pry a raise from.

Here's Preacher Roe of Arkansas, one of his Brooklyn players, describing contract talks with Rickey, as written in Roger Kahn's The Boys of Summer:

---

You know about Mr. Rickey's dogs after I had mah first good year? 1949, I believe it was, I won 15 and lost only six. Led the league in winning percentage, I do believe.

Well, that winter I got back home and told myself, "Preach, you sure are a pretty good pitcher. Now it's time you made some pretty good money." So I set there, awaitin' for Mr. Rickey to send me my contract. And each day I waited, I thought I ought to have a little more. When that ol' contract finally came, I was gonna look for a comfortable sum.

Contract never did arrive in the mail. 'Sted, down the road one sunny winter day come Mr. Rickey himself, driving a station wagon and makin' a lot of dust. He pulled up and climbed out and joined me on the porch. The two of us set there a while, just rockin'.

Then Mr. Rickey says, "Preacher, you're a fine pitcher. You're a wonderful pitcher." I thank him, and we're still rockin'.

"Now Preacher," Mr. Rickey says, "I don't know what to do. I'm so proud of you, it's like you were my own son." I thank him again. "Preacher," he says, "what should I pay you? It's like paying my own son. But look, I brought you a present."

Just then a couple of hunting dogs jump out of the back of the wagon. "They're for you, Preacher," Mr. Rickey says. I sets to admirin' them, and Mr. Rickey gets up, and reaches in a pocket and hands me a paper. "By the way," he says, "here's your contract. The figure's blank. Fill in what you think is right, son."

After he'd gone, I commenced thinkin' what a fine thing he'd done and how much trust he put in me and I took that original figure I had and knocked a thousand dollars off it. Day or so later I go hunting. I run the dogs up and down the hills and bagged me a mess o' quail. Got back, thought some more. Knocked off another $2,500.

Went hunting again. Had the best day ever. Brought the dogs back into the yard, locked the gate and went out on the porch and commenced more thinkin'. All the great huntin' an' the great dogs and Mr. Rickey's trust made me ashamed to be greedy. I took that contract and filled in a number $10,000 below my original figure. I got up offa the porch and walked down to the corner and put the signed contract in the mail.

When I got home, those two huntin' dogs had jumped the fence and taken off. They didn't stop running till they got back to Mr. Rickey's house in Brooklyn.

Gene Glynn gets the Rochester job

2011-11-26T01:02:00.000-06:00

Gene Glynn as a coach for the San Francisco Giants.

A bit of a surprise, and a bit of a hometown pick -- Glynn is from Waseca, which (for those of my readers unfamiliar with southern Minnesota) is within the Free Press coverage area, and was a multi-sport star at what was then Mankato State and is now Minnesota State, Mankato.

He's been involved in professional ball in one way or another since college -- minor league player, minor league manager, major league coach (13 seasons, for the Expos, Giants, Rockies and Cubs; he followed Don Baylor and Felipe Alou from job to job), scout. His resume is pretty typical of a baseball lifer -- a variety of jobs with a number of organizations.

There were a number of names publicly associated with the opening, and Glynn's was not among them, which is why I called his selection a surprise. While I'm doubtless biased in his favor, I would think his varied background will be a plus. He knows minor league life; as a scout the past five years for Tampa Bay, he should be a good talent evaluator; with 13 years of coaching in the majors, he should carry some credibility with his charges.

One thing's for sure: Rochester's tired of losing. The Red Wings have lost 90-plus games each of the last two seasons, and Tom Nieto, the former manager there, got the ax in large part because the Twins value the affiliation with Rochester and don't want to lose it. It may be the minor leagues, and the theoretical emphasis is on development -- but Glynn is expected to win games too.

It would certainly help his cause if the big league team doesn't need to use the disabled list so blinking much.

Salary Capps

2011-11-25T12:46:00.001-06:00

In the same conference call this week in which Terry Ryan stated the Twins arbitration intentions regarding ranked free agents Michael Cuddyer, Matt Capps and Jason Kubel and in which he confirmed the Ryan Doumit signing, Ryan made a curious statement regarding the Twins bullpen plans in the post-Joe Nathan era:

History says you might want to have somebody with (closing) experience, and usually people pitch themselves into that situation. Granted, (Glen Perkins) had a very good year; he just doesn't have the experience.

Matt Capps,
proven closer.

The word "might" qualifies that statement enough that I won't call it absolute rubbish. But rubbish it is.

A truly accurate reading of the history of bullpens would be more heavily on the side of inexperience. As Aaron Gleeman immediately pointed out on Twitter, Joe Nathan had one career save when the Twins made him their closer. His predecessor in the job, Eddie Guardado, hadn't been a closer before the Twins handed him the job. Rick Aguliera had seven career saves when Tom Kelly converted him from starter to closer.

Now, I don't have a problem with deciding that Perkins is more valuable pitching in the seventh and eighth innings than he would be locked into the ninth-inning job. (I think he is.) And it may be the Twins don't trust Perkins sufficiently to hand him the glory job in November. They may think it better to make him earn it by outpitching somebody this spring.

That somebody may yet be Matt Capps. Nobody's going to argue that Capps had a good 2011, but Ryan has suggested that his problems stemmed from pitching through inflammation in his wrist. Capps' new status as a "modified Type B" gives the Twins some incentive to let him go, and much of the Twins' Internet community is eager to be rid of him. But reading between the lines, I think Ryan, Ron Gardenhire and company would prefer to keep Capps.

There is a price point at which I would expect Capps to return. That price point is probably somewhat south of his 2011 salary (he pulled in more than $7 million) and somewhat south of Joe Nathan's deal with Texas (also more than $7 million in each of the next two years). Capps at $5 million or less a year? That seems like a real possibility to me. (Seth Stohs thinks it should be less than half that, but I don't think he'll go that cheap.)

And I'm fine with that. I don't want the closer job to be a priority. I want bullpen depth to be a priority. Gardenhire's history with bullpens -- this is an accurate reading of history -- tells me that one closer and one strong set-up guy isn't enough. He needs a closer and three guys (at least three) for the seventh and eighth innings. If he has too few, he's either going to lose games with poor relievers or get his useful ones hurt through overwork.

If the Twins add a "proven closer," they're a step closer to having that depth coming into camp than they would be if Perkins is the leading candidate to close.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Evaluating the trades

2011-11-25T00:15:00.000-06:00

Trades are rooted in a variety of motivations. Some are made with an eye to the future; some are made with the intention of winning now. Some are made out of financial necessity; some are made to add talent. Some are made to open a space for a prospect, some are made to fill a lineup gap no prospect is ready to fill.

The wheelin' and
dealin' Mr. Smith:
40 trades in four years.

At one point or another in his four years as the Twins general manager, Bill Smith made deals for all those reasons. Using Baseball Reference as a source, I compiled a list of 40 transactions Smith made that involved exchanging a player for either another player or cash.

Releasing a player (Juan Rincon, 2008) doesn't count; the Twins received nothing for him. Losing a ranked free agent and receiving draft picks as a result (Jesse Crain, 2011) also doesn't count; the Twins didn't pick his destination. Signing a free agent (Jim Thome, 2010) doesn't count. Claiming or losing a player on waivers (Jim Thome, 2011) does. My criteria is that it had to be an active transaction between two teams.

Some of the 40 trades were obviously big deals -- the Santana trade, for example. Some were exceedingly minor -- waiving Bobby Korecky. Some look minor but may yet turn into something valuable for one of the the teams (Mark Hamburger for Eddie Guardado, 2008).

In future posts, I'll evaluate Smith's trades, year by year. I'll evaluate them by identifying what the motivation was behind the deal, and by how well the trade met the desired effect. The biggest trades will get individual posts; the minor ones will be lumped together. I will cite, as overall stats, both win shares and Baseball Reference's version of wins above replacement.

One more point about this project: It is inevitably flawed. Nobody on the outside can fully know what the options were. We don't know what possible trades went unmade. I will not condemn the Santana trade on the basis that a competing offer was better; we don't know what, if any, competing offers were made. What we know is what was done. That's all I have to work with. And that can be complicated enough.

Happy Thanksgiving

2011-11-24T00:41:00.003-06:00

Let's eat

Time for my annual Thanksgiving post with a photo of a long-since devoured bird.

Last year I expressed thanks ... well, let's just repeat the relevant paragraph:

I am grateful that the team of which I am a fan is a chronic contender with stable, sober, competent management, grateful that the team injects drama into my life through what it does on the playing field rather than the clubhouse, courtroom or Internet scandal sites.

Some of that is still relevant. After a 99-loss season and a change of general managers, some of it isn't.

As difficult as the 2011 season was for Twins fans (not to mention the Twins players and management), I remain thankful for all the pleasure the game of baseball has given me over the years, and for the promise of more to come.

Happy Thanksgiving, dear readers.

Arbitration domination

2011-11-23T21:18:00.000-06:00

As a "modified Type B" free agent, Matt Capps
does not have to be offered arbitration to bring the
Twins a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Wednesday was the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their ranked free agents.

The Twins have three ranked free agents: Michael Cuddyer, a "modified" Type A; Jason Kubel, Type B; and Matt Capps, "modified" Type B. These designations, as I understand it, are useful for this offseason only.

A straight Type A -- Albert Pujols, for example -- offered arbitration will cost a signing team draft picks. Six of the free agents originally listed as Type A -- including Cuddyer -- are now in a new category. If they are offered arbitration and sign elsewhere, the jilted team gets two picks, but the signing team doesn't lose picks.

This figures to greatly enhance interest in Cuddyer. Under last winter's rules, a team signing Cuddyer was essentially trading a high draft pick to the Twins. Now the Twins would still get the picks, but the new team isn't losing anything.

The Twins continue to voice interest in retaining Cuddyer, but this development makes it more likely that he'll sign elsewhere.

The Capps situation is better for the Twins. Capps was originally a Type A, and as with Matt Guerrier last winter, the Twins would probably have declined to offer him arbitration rather than risk having him accept. But the new labor deal decouples arbitration from the five modified Type Bs. The Twins will collect a compensatory pick if Capps signs elsewhere without risking arbitration. (Capps is one of five in the new category.)

Bottom line for the Twins: They offered arbitration to Cuddyer and Kubel, did not to Capps. If all three sign elsewhere, the Twins will reap four extra draft picks in June, giving them six of the first 40 or so picks in the draft.

---

The Ryan Doumit signing became official Wednesday.

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Draft and develop

2011-11-23T02:34:00.001-06:00

Let's look at how Twins draftees of the past half-decade -- the men drafted and/or developed by the organization under Bill Smith -- have fared. Keep in mind: the more recent they are, the less certain we can be about them. The early drafts are the ones that should have produced major league and Triple-A players by now.

Chris Parmelee
impressed in a
September callup.

2006: Chris Parmelee was Minnesota's first round pick, Joe Benson their second rounder. Both were taken out of high school. We saw quite a bit of each in September, and Benson in particular needs more minor league time. They may not have developed as quickly as we'd like, but there's still promise there.

Other notables: Danny Valencia (19th round), collegian, is the Twins third baseman. LHP Tyler Robertson (3rd) has had arm problems, is now seen as a bullpen possibility, not as a starter,but is still viewed highly enough to be added last week to the 40-man roster. RHP Jeff Manship (14th) was a collegian who has reached the majors but is not an impact player. Brian Dinkleman (8th) re-signed with the Twins as a minor league free agent.

2007: Ben Revere, first round pick, figures to be a regular in the major league outfield in 2012. You know the story there: His tools are either outstanding (speed, contact hitting) or very weak (power, throwing arm). Angel Morales (3rd) is a Puerto Rican outfielder who has displayed great talent but has been stalled by injuries. He was not added to the 40 last week and is eligible for the Rule V draft.


Dan Rohlfing split 2011 between High A and Double A.

The 2007 draft is heavy on catchers named Daniel: Danny Rams (2nd round), Danny Lehmann (8th), Dan Rohlfing (14th). Rams has power but has contact issues; Lehmann has defensive skills and is the closest to getting to the majors but figures to be a Drew Butera-type backup.

2008: The first draft of the Bill Smith era, and the first conducted by scouting director Deron Johnson, featured two first round picks and a supplemental first rounder.

Aaron Hicks, outfielder, has made slow progress that included two seasons in low A ball. Scouts still love his tools, and his plate discipline is outstanding, but the switch-hitter continues to fail from the left side. The Twins are being outwardly patient with that, but it's becoming an issue.
Carlos Guterriez, college pitcher, has yet to master a secondary pitch to go with his high-quality sinker and had some arm problems late last season. He may be a bullpen factor this season. He was added to the 40 man roster.
Shooter Hunt, college pitcher, lost the strike zone completely in his second season and hasn't gotten it back enough to be reckoned a prospect.

Others of note: Tyler Ladendorf, college shortstop (2nd round), was traded to Oakland in 2009 for Orlando Cabrera. ... Kolten Wong (16th) went to college; the infielder was a first-round selection last summer and is thought to be on a fast track to the majors.

2009: Kyle Gibson slipped to the Twins because of injury concerns. He figured to be a rotation factor in 2012, but instead will spend it rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

Catcher Chris Herrmann
also plays in the outfield.

Supplemental rounder Matt Bashore also has had ligament replacement surgery. Billy Bullock (2nd) was traded for Scott Diamond last spring. Brian Dozier (8th) may wind up in the Twins infield by midseason. Chris Herrmann (6th) may be the best catching prospect in the system, with sterling OBPs; he finished 2011 in Double A. Eric Decker (27th) didn't sign, is now playing wide receiver for the Denver Broncos.

As I noted at the time of the draft, the Twins drafted heavily early that year on power arms with injury concerns. The risk so far has not been rewarded.

2010: Alex Wimmers, college pitcher, lost most of 2011 to wildness issues that appeared to be corrected late in the season. Control was his strong suit; if that isn't back fully, it was a lost pick.

Niko Goodwin (2nd) is a raw high school talent a long, long ways away. He's a shortstop now, but that may change. Eddie Rosario (4th) had a big year in the Appy League playing center field, and the Twins, always long on outfielders and short on infielders, are testing him at second base.

2011: Levi Michael (1st round), Travis Harrison (supplemental) and Hudson Boyd (supplemental) all signed at the deadline and didn't play in the minors last season. Harrison Boer (2nd) looked good in the Appy League, but as a college pitcher should.

Justin Verlander, Most Valuable Pitcher

2011-11-22T00:09:00.002-06:00

Justin Verlander: Not merely a unanimous Cy Young
winner, but the Most Valuable Player to boot.

Justin Verlander was named American League Most Valuable Player on Monday. He is the first starting pitcher to win an MVP since Roger Clemens in 1986, a year that seems recent to me but is a quarter century ago and thus a lifetime ago to at least some of you.

That Verlander is even eligible for the honor, much less the winner, is rather controversial in some circles. Pitchers, the argument goes, have the Cy Young Award; MVP should be limited to position players.

The rules, however, specifically say that pitchers are eligible.

Eligible, but -- at least since 1969, when the mound was lowered and the strike zone redefined -- seldom victorious. No National League pitcher, starter or reliever, has been voted MVP since Bob Gibson in 1968.

Ignore the three relief pitchers who've won the AL award -- all of which were mistakes by an electorate that hadn't begun to come to grips with the meaning of the save statistic -- and only two AL starters (Clemens and Vida Blue in 1971) have taken the honor since Denny McLain in 1968.

Verlander was helped some by the flaws in the other candidates' arguments. Jacoby Ellsbury's team faded badly in September. Jose Batista -- seen by the sabermetric community as the best player in the league -- fell off in the second half, and his team was never in the race. Curtis Granderson led the league in runs and RBIs and bopped 41 homers, but his rate stats weren't great. Miguel Cabrera, Verlander's teammate, probably crippled his chances with his DWI arrest before spring training.

So Verlander emerged from a divided field.

There is a legitimate reason to be skeptical of a modern pitcher's MVP candidacy, and it has nothing to do with the Cy Young Award. It has to do with workload.

Blue worked 312 innings in his MVP season. McLain had 336, Gibson 304. Sandy Koufax had 311 in his MVP season (1963). On the other hand, Clemens had 254 in his MVP year, Verlander 251.

Two-hundred fifty innings is a lot in today's pitch count era. But the difference between 300 innings and 250 is significant. That's Alex Burnett's entire workload in 2011. Koufax worked 300-plus innings in three seasons, and in each he faced 300-plus more batters than Verlander did this season.

Were I a voter, I'd have an easier time voting for a pitcher with a 1960s-type workload than a 2000s workload. I'm not complaining that Verlander won, but I wouldn't have complained if Ellsbury, Batista, Granderson or Cabrera had either.

Joe Nathan signs with Texas

2011-11-21T20:27:00.000-06:00

Joe Nathan had 14 saves and a 4.84 ERA in 2011,
his first season back after ligament replacement surgery.

Adios to No. 36, who has agreed to what is being reported as a two-year deal with a third year option, $14.5 million guaranteed.

The Rangers are reported to have told Neftali Feliz that he's moving to the rotation, taking the spot being vacated by free-agent C.J. Wilson. Nathan inherits the closers job for the team that represented the American League the past two years in the World Series.

I expected Nathan to return, and I'm sorry to see him move on. But I'm not despondent about his departure.

He turns 37 on Tuesday, and even in his much-improved second half he allowed three homers in 23 innings and had an ERA of 3.91. Maybe he can still return to the fabulous level he maintained for his first six years with the Twins, but the odds are against it.

The next question is: How will the Twins rework their bullpen for 2012?

This will be grist for many a future post, but my off-the-top-of-my-head idea is that if the Twins are serious about making Brian Duensing a relief pitcher, they might as well tab Glen Perkins for the closer job. Perkins, Duensing and Jose Mijares would make a very deep lefty bullpen corps, and I don't know that they'd get proper use out of them if they're all strictly LOOGYs.

I'd rather see the Twins put their discretionary payroll money into something other than a "proven closer."

Baseball Outsider

Doin' the affiliation shuffle?

The future of this blog (con't.)

One pitcher gone

Feeling a draft (February edition)

Perfectly pointless memorabilia

The outfield plan: The alignment

The Sunday Funnies

Josh Hamilton's relapse

The pitching options

On bypassing the veteran middle relievers

Contemplating Tim Wakefield

Too many pitchers?

Scott Boras, "business partner"

The Sunday Funnies

Twins Fest weekend

Prince Fielder, Mike Ilitch and the quest for value

Reconsidering the Slowey transactions

Prince Fielder to the Detroit Tigers

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Final thoughts

On the future of this blog

More from BA on Twins prospects

The Sunday Funnies

Back to the Basics (Blame Nishi)

Slowey moves on to Cleveland

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: Other trades of 2011

Implications of Joel Zumaya

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Delmon Young trade

Jesus Montero, Michael Pineda and Francisco Liriano

The Joel Zumaya lottery ticket

The Sunday Funnies

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Scott Diamond

A pitcher named Silva

Contemplating Justin Morneau

Baseball Minnesota -- er, America

A history lesson: Collusion and 12-man pitching staffs

Hall of Fame: Barry Larkin is in

Jorge Posada vs. Ted Simmons

The Sunday Funnies

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Tsuyoshi Nishioka

The malign influence of Tsuyoshi Nishioka

Conspicuous by their absence

Non-roster invitees and Hall of Fame links

A rough draft of the bullpen

Dissecting the Bill Smith Era: The Hardy-Hoey trade

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: Other trades of 2010

The Sunday Funnies

Two Hall of Fame also-rans

The $100 million payroll

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Capps-Ramos trade

Jack Morris, the DH rule and the Hall of Fame

The merits of a Revere-Plouffe platoon

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Hardy-Gomez trade

The Sunday Funnies

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The other 2009 trades

Twins sign Jason Marquis

A difference of opinion on Jose Mijares

Arranging the Twins outfield

Fare-thee-well, Jason Kubel

A quick comment

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Rauch trade

The Sunday Funnies

Fare-thee-well, Michael Cuddyer

More minor league signings

Cuddyer AND Willingham? Really?

Official: Willingham a Twin

While we were waiting ...

Willingham or not?

At the fringes of the roster

Ryan Braun's positive test

The Sunday Funnies

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Pavano trade

Albert Pujols, Michael Cuddyer and the desire for more

Winter meetings, Day Four

Winter meetings, Day Three

Winter meetings, Day Two

Winter meetings, Day One

The return of Matt Capps

Dissecting the Bill Smith era: The Cabrera trade

The Sunday Funnies